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One Big Step Forward, a Step Somewhere and Two Big Steps Back

We're all pretty fed up with this offense after the last eight games and when I saw this article in my hopper I got some preliminary excitement. When I read the first two sentences I was ready to do one of those awkward fist pumps to myself in the office that would garner more weird stares if I didn't work where I do.

From LaRue

Don Wakamatsu promised a few changes - he doesn't have the roster to make many more - and he's delivered today.

Ronny Cedeno is the shortstop, and Yuniesky Betancourt is not.

Wladimir Balentien is the left fielder, and Endy Chavez is not.

And, before long, Rob Johnson may be starting more games at catcher than Kenji Johjima.

If Mike Sweeney's back was better, if he wasn't a health risk to play the field, he might be the first baseman in place of Russell Branyan.

What?

Okay first of all, thank freakin god on the Yuni news. As we've beaten into the ground, he's not improving but instead is actually getting actively worse. Ronny Cedeno is not likely to be a long term solution, but he does come with a good minor league pedigree and it is almost impossible to be worse. Benching Yuni for him should serve two goals; it makes the team better right now and hopefully it will send a message to Yuni that he is not going to be allowed to coast along any longer under this new regime.

I have been mildly impressed by Balentien's improvements this season both in the field and at the plate and have called for him to get more at bats. But here's the thing, Endy Chavez's defense is stellar and he's no worse with the bat than we thought he would be. We knew what he was and though we might have desperately wanted him to be something better after the first 20 games, he isn't. Also, Wlad's a righty and Endy is a lefty. They form a pretty natural platoon and allows you to get increased exposure for Balentien without sacrificing your outfield defense totally. I hope Wlad gets more ABs, both in left field and occasionally at DH over Sweeney, but lets not go nuts here, Endy is still valuable even with his anemic bat.

And now we get to the heartbreaking section. My brain processed "And, before long, Rob Johnson" and flipped out anticipating a reprieve from Jeff Clement's exile in Tacoma and an acknowledgment that Rob Johnson sucks right now. Instead, no. Just the opposite in fact. You want Rob Johnson to start more? I cannot think of a worse solution to this problem. Rob Johnson has been horrible. His wOBA is 30 points below Kenji's and his defense is demonstrably bad. What in the world would possess you to watch Rob Johnson play this year and decide, that man deserves a starting job?

I hope this last piece is just LaRue speculation because, again, what? Branyan has been our most productive hitter. I'm all for Mike Sweeney not getting shat on like he tends to in the comments here, because he's been okay, but starting him over Branyan? You cannot even complain about Branyan against LHP this year; he has an .870 OPS against them.

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Who the hell did Clement piss off, anyway?

Why does he not even warrant a passing glance at the MLB level at catcher? Rob Johnson is…not good.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on May 13, 2009 2:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Huh.

Great news about Cedeno, but that Clement thing really is baffling.

by royalcurve on May 13, 2009 2:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

New day, same shit.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on May 13, 2009 2:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

More like

New day, new shit.

by Fin on May 13, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

FUCK OFF YUNI YOU PIECE OF SHIT

YOU WILL NOT BE MISSED YOU LARD-ARSED RETARD.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on May 13, 2009 2:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If you watch the shots of the dugout during the game.

You’ll see Johnson laughing it up with everybody on the team.

I think management and the pitchers love this guy.

I would hope management would ignore these type of factors (pitchers like throwing to him, good clubhouse guy, works hard, etc).. and take a look at the numbers which show that he’s not a major league ballplayer.

I’m all for Balentien getting more playing time. Endy should be the fourth outfielder as long as Wlad continues to show growth. I’m all for rewarding guys who are producing and I know Wak was very impressed with that opposite field double Wlad hit the other day.

As for Yuni.. I think everyone is in agreement that Cedeno should be the starter, even though he isnt too good either

by Rudy4three on May 13, 2009 2:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The Rob Johnson line screams LaRue bias to me.

I’m not saying I expect Clement up soon, but having read him for years he always seems to add information that is nothing more than his own speculation.

Very happy to see Cedeno in there again. Hopefully he gets a few games in a row this time.

by Sec 108 on May 13, 2009 2:59 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Eh.

I like the Balentien move. I love the Cedeno move. I don’t mind the Rob Johnson move.

But WHAT??? Why would you bench Branyan? Where is the logic in that? He’s hit 4x as many homers as Sweeney….

by Taylor H on May 13, 2009 3:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If you don't mind the Johnson move

then you don’t understand key concepts like hitting.

by Matthew on May 13, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or fielding.

You got slurved bitch.

by Slurvey on May 13, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or Baseball

I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ

by Fuzz on May 13, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

ALSO HOLY SHIT ROB FREAKING JOHNSON IS STILL AT THE BIG CLUB - AND IS BEING REWARDED?!

I CAN ONLY ASSUME WE ARE TRYING TO MANUFACTURE SOME KIND OF TRADE BECAUSE THIS MAKES NO SENSE.

I WISH GMZ HAD AN EMAIL ADDRESS RIGHT NOW SO I COULD ASK HIM WTF HE IS THINKING.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on May 13, 2009 3:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm.....

The idea in my head right now is either the worst or best idea ever.

by Matthew on May 13, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

DO IT. I'D IMPRESS HIM SO MUCH HE'S GIVE ME FREE TICKETS OR SOMETHING.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on May 13, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That would be nice.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on May 13, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry I am having trouble expressing myself properly:

My argument is that Johnson should play every day …. in AAA. Or an other org. Clement needs to be our catcher. And I don’t care how many ITK’s claim it will never happen and we should give up: the guy still owns a catchers mitt, can still squat: let’s get him in Seattle.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on May 13, 2009 3:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Woooooooeeehhhhhahhhhhnooooo!?

The Rise of a Superstar:Justin Upton-.428 wOBA, 21 years old.

by Goose on May 13, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

note the verb tenses

With Cedeño, Betancourt, Balentien, and Chavez LaRue uses “is”.

With Johnson and Sweeney he uses “may”. If he knew for certain that those changes were pending, as a good writer he would use “will be”. That he uses “may” indicates the last two sentences are LaRue speculative.

by Steve Nelson on May 13, 2009 3:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah the Branyan and Johnson ones look like complete speculation

"Get up you crazy black man, I'm gonna make you drink my piss!" - Will Ferrell.

by gregrabble on May 13, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope they're speculation because I love Branyan.

He is also a much better hitter than Sweeney, with an OPS of .133 better.

by Kirkharbaugh on May 13, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree.

But we can’t get too happy. Look what happened last time.

by Matthew on May 13, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rob Johnson is the new Willie Boom-Boom Dynamite...

… Except WFB is a better player than Rob Johnson.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on May 13, 2009 3:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow, that's something I thought I'd never see

WFB better than somebody else in the majors

I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ

by Fuzz on May 13, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No kidding

I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ

by Fuzz on May 13, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Regarding Branyan,

Maybe he means Sweeney playing first and Branyan playing DH? Does that make any sense?

Not having Branyan hit would make no sense, other than the slump in the past week, he has been our best hitter.

by ARock on May 13, 2009 3:17 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Branyan's moblility is better than anything you're going to get from Sweeney

Sweeney moves around the infield like he’s wearing cement shoes

I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ

by Fuzz on May 13, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Want to see some more reports come in on this.

Otherwise, for certain:

Cedeno over Yuni = Good; Not much more to say about that
Wlad over Chavez = Fair; I’m okay if this is just for shaking things up for a day or to give Chavez a bit more rest. Might even consider Chavez for Gutz every once in a while to rest Gutz.

Speculation(?):

Johnson over Johjima = Very Bad; Replacing a potential right-handed bat with a zero power right-handed bat just exacerbates the current problem with offense Hope this one isn’t true.

Mike Sweeney over Branyan = Bad; Should be done strictly to give Branyan a break. Otherwise, he was the one actually doing his job and carrying the offense.

The Cedeno move is the only one out of this list that makes sense until we find a decent SS. Otherwise, the rest I’m only okay if the result is just to shake things up or give players breaks.

by ThundaPC on May 13, 2009 3:22 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

A .221 wOBA? It's Rob Johnson mothafuckas.

31% k rate? Still Rob Johnson mothafuckas.
.664 wild pitches + passed balls a game? It’s RJ, shawty.
35.7% infield fly ball rate? Oh yeah.

I will go crazy if he gets more playing time.

by abender20 on May 13, 2009 3:30 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

My thoughts.

Cedeno over Yuni = Awesome
Wlad over Chavez = Fine
Sweeney over Branyan = Iffy
Johnson over Joh = WTF

by Heydude on May 13, 2009 3:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That's why I went with iffy.

Depends if it’s a permanent move, and what the reasoning behind it. I’d still prefer Russ in the lineup.

by Heydude on May 13, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK

Yes, Endy Chavez has produced value for the team – he’s been 4 runs above average, and that’s really cool. But Wlad’s added 5 runs in much less time. Yes, the argument about handedness is a concern, but it’s not like the alternative is cutting Chavez… he’d just play less often. I think this is a fine move considering the M’s problems scoring runs.

Rob Johnson. Hmmm.
Look, I actually think there’s an argument to be made for playing him more than Johjima. The issue isn’t Johnson versus average, it’s Johnson versus Johjima, who appears to be 100% done as a major league hitter.
Would it be better to have Clement here? Yes, and I have no idea why the org seems so dead-set against that, but here we are. IF the team doesn’t want to consider giving Clement more MLB starts at C, then the only question is the horrific Johjima/Johnson dichotomy.
The difference in hitting – while not tiny – may close over time (Johnson’s 0-8 against LHP so far). Again, these are marginal things and we’re still talking about starting a guy who if everything goes right might make it up to a .280-.290 wOBA. Johnson may get a few more walks, while Johjima may get more XBHs? Who knows- but Johjima’s last 500 PAs have been absolutely dreadful.
Still, I think the real reason Wak might do this is that pitchers have about a 3.5 FIP with Johnson behind the plate and around a 5.2 w/Johjima. Dave Cameron (and others) will rightly point out that the samples are small, that selection bias/park effects may be at play, etc. cERA has never proven to be predictive. I just don’t know what to make of the vastly superior K/BB/HR stuff with Johnson. Odds are it’s a fluke, but that’s why Wak (may) be making this move.

The Branyan thing is just weird.

by marc w on May 13, 2009 3:44 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm still about 100 times more confident with Johjima at the plate than Johnson

"Get up you crazy black man, I'm gonna make you drink my piss!" - Will Ferrell.

by gregrabble on May 13, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Johjima has 30 more points of wOBA over Rob Johnson this season.

How does that translate into done as a Major League hitter for Johjima and Rob Johnson’s line doesn’t?

by Matthew on May 13, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because Johjima's at .274 this year

and was at .272 last year. Remarkably consistent.
Last year, Johnson’s MLE was an OPS of around .700, with proportionally more of that coming from walks. Thus, it’s not ridiculous to think Johnson might improve on his current line.
I’m not simply comparing Johnson’s 60 PAs to Kenji’s previous 53. I’m comparing Johnson’s last 500 to Kenji’s last 500.

(To be clear, that MLE plus any expected ‘improvement’ puts Johnson waaaaay below average).

by marc w on May 13, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Kenji also had a .233 BABIP last year despite a line drive rate over 20%

And looking at projection systems, Rob Johnson is no better than Kenji Johjima there either. They’re about equal in fact. Couple that with Johjima’s depressed BABIP last year, his better skills at the broad array of defensive duties and his contract and there’s just no logical comprehensive argument to be made for Rob Johnson starting over Kenji Johjima.

by Matthew on May 13, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not absolutely sure about that. The ZiPS ROS projections

Have Johnson edging Johjima .291 to .289. That feels about right to me – they’re neck and neck, maybe a slight lean to Johnson, and they both absolutely suck. The point is the argument that Johjima is clearly the better hitter now doesn’t work. If you think Johjima’s a bit better, that’s cool, but the total delta in bRAA over the rest of the season can’t be more than… what, 5?
Johjima’s better at measurable defensive things (though it’d be interesting to see Johnson’s CS% over time), but Johnson’s got the weird FIP advantage. Massive fluke, selection bias, I don’t know. I certainly wouldn’t mind Johnson developing a reputation as a guy pitchers absolutely love throwing to, however.

by marc w on May 13, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And that's the best case for Johnson. That's if you believe Johjima doesn't bounce back and that Johnson's surge in Triple-A last year will sustain.

Then they end up as roughly equal hitters with Johnson’s nebulous cERA argument against Johjima’s demonstrable numbers.

That’s not a good argument.

by Matthew on May 13, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Think of it this way:

Everyone on LL is 100% behind a move to replace a hitter whose current wOBA is .270 and whose projected ROS wOBA is .299 and whose career UZR/150 is -5.8 with a guy whose career wOBA is .274, whose projected ROS wOBA is .294, and whose career UZR/150 is -6.8. I love this move.

We’re talking about bad hitters who aren’t good defensively. At SS, we’re behind it because of Cedeno’s AAA numbers, Yuni’s defensive trend and because we’re sick of Yuni. At C, we’d do it because of Johnson’s trend in the minors, the fact that he seems to work well with the pitchers, and because Johjima’s age means it’s not certain that this is just some extended slump.
Is the cERA/cFIP thing a bad argument in isolation? Yeah. But adding everything together, he and Johjima are fairly close, and I’d give the tie to the youngster who may one day have a bit of trade value. Or rather, I understand if that’s where Wak goes. Personally, I think it’s an irrelevant discussion, but I’m preaching to the choir.

by marc w on May 13, 2009 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok.

I was just quibbling with this: “there’s just no logical comprehensive argument to be made for Rob Johnson starting over Kenji Johjima.”
I think there IS one, it’s just not one that’s going to be persuasive to everyone. It depends on each person’s weighting of various variables.

by marc w on May 13, 2009 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Two of the moves confirmed

Ichiro RF
Jose Lopez 2B
Ken Griffey Jr. DH
Adrian Beltre 3B
Russell Branyan 1B
Wladimir Balentien LF
Kenji Johjima C
Franklin Gutierrez CF
Ronny Cedeno SS

by ThundaPC on May 13, 2009 3:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Like the Clement jersey?

Unless Matt Clement comes out of retirement.

by Fin on May 13, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He wouldn't wear a single digit number

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on May 13, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ok Ronny, let's not royally screw up your opportunity this time.

The Rise of a Superstar:Justin Upton-.428 wOBA, 21 years old.

by Goose on May 13, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Man I was just reminded of the Springsteen song One Step Up.

“One step up and two steps back.”

Mariners are making some progress I guess you could say.

You got slurved bitch.

by Slurvey on May 13, 2009 3:55 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I was reminded of a Paula Abdul song.

I’m not sure what that says about me as a person.

by Mariner John on May 13, 2009 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I had thought this organization wasn't that high on Balentien

Interesting to see him getting continued chances to prove his value.

by Ezzra on May 13, 2009 3:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

So, with Yuni being benched

can a trade be too far off? It is certain he will not increase his value riding the pine.

by jimmylauderdale on May 13, 2009 3:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Ugh

Oh well. Teams should know what he is at this point and whether they like what he is or not I guess is already largely determined.

by jimmylauderdale on May 13, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who the fuck would want that fucking waste of atoms?

It’s not even like he is FAT. He gets a seven figure salary. I hope he uses the pine time to learn how to read and communicate with people who are not fellow retards. Maybe then he will learn from the teachings of his coaches.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on May 13, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

By definition ...

… any trade of Yuni would be too far off.

by Steve Nelson on May 13, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hard to trade a man who isn't valued.

Then again, Bill Bavasi still has a job, so hope springs eternal!

by Omerta on May 13, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yuni isn't the type of player that is in high demand

A guy who used to be a starter, but has been reduced to the bench in favor of a replacement level player. I can imagine that many teams aren’t really looking for a young ‘has-been’. Trading him right now would be in our interest, but not in the interest of any (logical) team right now. It would be very hard to get rid of him for anything more than a set of bats and a washing machine

I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ

by Fuzz on May 13, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but Cedeno wasn't as underperforming and overpaid as is the case with Yuni

I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ

by Fuzz on May 13, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Actually, he was

Cedeno had nearly 600 PAs for the Cubs in 2006 and put up a wOBA of .259. His career line is now .274, or exactly where Kenji Johjima’s is this year. Yuni’s 2008 – the year he gave away nearly 13 runs on defense – had him ‘earn’ 0.3 wins over replacement. In Cedeno’s one year of full-time play, he was 1.5 wins below replacement.
Betancourt’s contract isn’t great right now, but both of them are horrible ‘values’ at the moment, but that doesn’t mean another team wouldn’t trade for one or the other.

by marc w on May 13, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

What i'm getting at though is that teams will bite on one or the other characteristic

Most teams can settle with underperforming if they aren’t having to pay much, and overpaid if they are getting a moderate investment in what they are putting into the player. However, if you have both characteristics in the same player simulateously, that spells trouble, and most teams will not want anything to do with that

I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ

by Fuzz on May 13, 2009 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Teams will ALWAYS want young-ish players with talent who are underperforming.

Is Yuni’s salary unattractive right now? Sure, but it’s not Johjima-level crippling. Besides, scouting reports from several years ago still rave about him. Plenty of teams would trade for him if the price was right.

Scott Olsen is young-ish, has a reputation for being a world-class asshole, had a FIP over 5 in 2007/08, makes nearly $3 million this year, and was acquired by one of the cheapest teams in pro sports in a trade (the Nats).

by marc w on May 13, 2009 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not to get overly analytical here, but let's break this down...
Ronny Cedeno is the shortstop, and Yuniesky Betancourt is not.

Wladimir Balentien is the left fielder, and Endy Chavez is not.

Both these statments use “is” which is used as a solid statement of fact.


And, before long, Rob Johnson may be starting more games at catcher than Kenji Johjima.

“May be” is the polar opposite from concrete. So far Wak has been straight forward about his moves; they’ve been “is” moves like the first two. Ex. Silva had to pitch good or he’d get yanked; he pitched bad and got yanked.


If Mike Sweeney’s back was better, if he wasn’t a health risk to play the field, he might be the first baseman in place of Russell Branyan.

This statement is chalk-full of unclear language. And really, do you think Wak specifically said this statement? Doesn’t it seem odd that he’d throw the only power hitter under the bus, especially as a new manger who is trying to establish a connectivity with his players?

The final two statements seem more like a columnist’s speculation than anything else, just on linguistics alone.

by SethGrandpa on May 13, 2009 4:17 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

One issue I have with all of this is that there is no sense ot time given by LaRue.

“Wakamatsu promised changes” and the lineup TODAY is different. Has anyone read anything that would lead them to believe that the Yuni / Ronny swap is at all permanent?

by abender20 on May 13, 2009 4:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I meant more along the lines of: Yuni gets days off now and then.

If LaRue just took the Wakamatsu open ended and saw a Yuni day off and a Balentien start…

by abender20 on May 13, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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