An Update on Adrian Beltre

by Matthew on May 11, 2009 1:59 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

A week ago, I published this look at Adrian Beltre's plate approach tendencies through the first parts of the season, separated into three roughly equal groups of mid 30 plate appearances. The conclusion of that post was summarized thusly:

As a proxy method of testing my theory [that Beltre was pressing], I surmised that Beltre likely did not start off the season [that way], or that at least, he would have [began pressing] more as the season wore on. I decided to look at two numbers that I thought would indicate that. First, the standby P/PA. The second number was how often Beltre swung at the first pitch of the at bat. I originally split the season into halves, and it showed the same pattern as below, but I decided to split the season into thirds to better show the trend and it jumps out at me so much I am putting the whole thing in bold and large type.

First 33 PAs: 3.48 P/PA, 18% swinging at first pitch.
Next 37 PAs: 3.22 P/PA, 35%
Next 31 PAs: 2.94 P/PA, 45%

This. This is what pressing looks like.

Adrian Beltre has had 35 PAs since that article was written. He's hit .303/.314/.455 in those eight games including his first home run of the season. Looking at the numbers presented in the linked article, here is an update on Beltre's fourth quartile of the season.

35 PAs
57.3% of pitches offered at (a big increase over first 101 PAs)
74.6% contact rate (a big decrease over first 101 PAs)
3.54 P/PA (highest of the season)
26% of first pitches swung at.

Beltre is doing better at taking the first pitch of the at bat, back closer to the level that he began the season at and right back to the level (28%) that he held for the 2008 season. The only downside is that he's still swinging at a lot more pitches than usual and his pitches seen per plate appearance rose mostly because he made contact less frequently when he did swing.

Still, since I did run numbers on how many strikes he has seen*, I do believe this is good news for the most part. Beltre is starting to extend his at bats and is getting closer to his 2008 rates.

Maybe somebody is listening.

*Perhaps pitchers, seeing his ineptitude so far at the plate, have started being more aggressive in the zone with Beltre, justifying his higher swing rate.

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So am I to understand that he is now swinging and missing more often?

Either way, it was good to see him finally getting some good results at the plate. I’m sure it’s helping loosen him up. After his homerun, you could see him sit back on the bench and let out a pretty deep sigh, while smiling.

I want to poop at your house - Thingray

by tootthekazoo on May 11, 2009 3:09 PM PDT reply actions

I am unsure if your question is serious or just rhetorical.

The answer seems stated plainly in the post.

The only downside is that he’s still swinging at a lot more pitches than usual and his pitches seen per plate appearance rose mostly because he made contact less frequently when he did swing.

by Matthew on May 11, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Looking at this I'm starting to wonder about Beltre's ability to handle pressure

Perhaps one of the reasons he struggled so mightily in 2005 was his desire to live up to his massive contract.

by Ezzra on May 11, 2009 4:00 PM PDT reply actions

HE CAN'T COME THROUGH IN THE CLUTCH?!?

WHAT TYPE OF CHOKER IS HE???

Seriously, what pressure has Beltre been under this year exactly? It’s not like he is a rookie trying to establish himself.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on May 11, 2009 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Matthew's theory in his original posts go something like this

I think he is feeling the pressure of not doing well at the plate. He stated a couple times over the off season his desire to be back on a winning team. Well, it turns out this team is winning, and it seems to me that perhaps Beltre is desperate to contribute as well.

by Ezzra on May 11, 2009 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions

That's not my theory.

My theory was that he was pressing. That was a purely hypothetical guess at a possible cause. I came up with a way to test the theory, the cause cannot be ascertained. Confusing the two damages the legitimacy of the theory.

by Matthew on May 11, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions

My apologies, I guess I misinterpreted

It’s worth noting that my misinterpretation occurs when with I add two more lines to the beginning:

Now comes the theory. I think Beltre is pressing. Possibly he feels the pressure of a contract season, but honestly I do not think that’s it. I think he is feeling the pressure of not doing well at the plate. He stated a couple times over the off season his desire to be back on a winning team. Well, it turns out this team is winning, and it seems to me that perhaps Beltre is desperate to contribute as well.

You can see how one might confuse the two.

by Ezzra on May 11, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Luckily for him the team isn't winning anymore

by OlSalty on May 11, 2009 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions

THE LOSING STREAK IS OVER

WE WILL START WINNING AGAIN

"Get up you crazy black man, I'm gonna make you drink my piss!" - Will Ferrell.

by gregrabble on May 11, 2009 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions

A potential contributing factor...

…to the higher pitches offered at over the last few games is the opposing pitchers. If I’m interpreting my fangraphs stats correctly (I wish they’d update the glossary), Swing% is the percentage of pitches offered at, and Minnesota’s pitchers lead the league in Swing% against (48.2%, which to me seems like a really huge difference from Milwaukee’s league-lowest 42.4% Swing% against.)

I’m surprised to see that Minnesota leads the league in O-Swing%, because it doesn’t seem like their pitchers have especially noteworthy stuff that would look like strikes and then tail out of the strike zone, but I guess if you’re around the zone a lot you can get ahead in the count and hitters will swing more at bad pitches?

by ubelmann on May 11, 2009 7:35 PM PDT reply actions