14-9, Chart
by Matthew on May 1, 2009 10:21 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Game Recaps
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I was joking, but seriously, I would be into Batista. Silva is a bad little boy.
I hope you die. I hope we BOTH die.
What the fuck is that? And why isn't it dead?
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 1, 2009 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know whats worse, this or the hairy guy in the Arizona game the other day,
You can't hide from the omnipresent eye.
I think of Mars Attacks when I see her.
"The Lord spared the fitten and the rest he seen fitten to die."
Lincoln’s reference to growing up in Hardin County, Kentucky (now Larue County)
by MaineMariner on May 2, 2009 6:55 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Okay, honestly, who thought Lopez was going to get a hit after he got two strikes?
Cuz if we’re being honest, I saw him chasing a breaking ball in the dirt.
I forgive him too.
Great at bat, he had to cover the one’s he didn’t know how they’d be called.
by Sinking Away on May 1, 2009 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Am I reaching here, or was that the kind of at bat that could give a young player like Lopez. . .
a healthy boost to his confidence? Maybe help him become a better hitter?
Fear the NPE
DON'T FORGET RALLY PUPPY!
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on May 1, 2009 10:26 PM PDT reply actions 23 recs
Yes. A new meme has been born.
And BTW, I’m going to need your help on another GIF later on.
Sounds good.
Just facebook me what you need done.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on May 1, 2009 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions
MUCH BETTER than the stpid Monkey
Who I swear to God I want to slap upside the head when they show his face down In CA..
Proud member of Duck nation!
This is awesome.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on May 1, 2009 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions
This can immediately take its rightful place alongside the all-time greats.
"...But with the at-bats that Willie (Bloomquist) had tonight, I don't know that I'm immediately going to take him out of the lineup." -Trey Hillman
So I'm wondering.....
Is it just a matter of selective memory, or does it seem like when an at-bat goes more than 10 pitches deep the hitter bats around .950 or so?
OK
So I was a little heavy on the hyperbole there, the point is that relative to the league batting average/OBP, once an at-bat goes that far, the advantage shifts to the hitter and the slash lines are inflated in a pretty big way. At least it seems that way without further analysis.
I just don’t ever remember seeing a hitter battle like that, then ground out weakly or hit a routine fly bal right at an outfielder. Selective memory, or real phenomenon?
by AnotherAaron on May 1, 2009 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
That's an interesting question.
I’m not sure where you’d go to answer it. Maybe baseballreference.com premium or something.
There is truth to what you are saying because all those foul balls mean the hitter is tracking the pitches well.
What the numbers actually are, I do not know.
Also..
It’s a great way to make a pitcher suffer. I would love to have players who could run up the pitch count on starters early by fouling things off…or, I don’t dare ot say it, taking bad pitches, If you hit well enough, like Ichiro, than lack of patience is fine…
Swinging on the first pitch is just helping the pitcher. If you can’t’ hit it, don’t bother and let him throw another.
MLB.com says
Down five runs early, Mariners rally for win
But Travis Buck is still the picture. Silly.
So when does Silva hit the DL with an anxiety disorder?
...and now I'm here
Why can't he just go on the DL with a severe case of suck?
by Mariner Melee on May 1, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Or we can give him to the Yankees
Lord knows they love taking overpriced crappy pitchers…
Proud member of Duck nation!
You mean causing the fans an anxiety disorder?
Formerly Mariners124M... Username was sorta bland, so I'm changin it up
If you haven't looked at Gameday and the Lopez AB
It’s pretty amusing seeing all those little circles piled on top of each other
He was not going to let strike 3 go past
But he fouled off two pitches that were so obviously balls he almost fell down lunging fro them…
Proud member of Duck nation!
All in the same place.
It’s a small sample size.
They’re fairly close, but Yuni’s Contact% is better.
The first called strike:
further outside than one called a ball.
Inconsistent zone all day, he has to protect with two strikes like that.
by AnotherAaron on May 1, 2009 10:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Ah, i can put that aside for today.
Plus after the third and fourth pitch which were pretty borderline and called balls, I dont blame him for hacking at anything close. A couple were blatantly out of the zone, but can’t be angry after a guy wins a game like that
I'm with you.
He couldn’t count on the ump getting it right. He saw them and was luckly enough to get sometheing on them.
by Sinking Away on May 1, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Question...
Do the M’s have a bullpen or a random hard throwing white guy machine?
When Wak calls the pen does he tell them who to get up or does he just say “pick one”? I’m not sure that it really matters.
Some of them have accents
Some write novels and like Kenny G.
Secondary skills may play a part in Wak’s decision-making,
And now, the absurdity that is Jim Joyce
(Shawn Kelley’s pitch f/x plot from the 8th inning, posted by Dave)
Franklin Gutierrez reminds me of Peter Lorre, I don't know why though.
"Get up you crazy black man, I'm gonna make you drink my piss!" - Will Ferrell.
What do you guys think. Was this the best game of the year?
Or the Griffey 400th, and Ichi Grand Slam vs Anaheim a couple weeks ago?
Tough call
That's close, I'd have to go with this one though due to the huge comeback
"Get up you crazy black man, I'm gonna make you drink my piss!" - Will Ferrell.
It's usually good to start a winning streak with a win.
...and now I'm here
That was a fun game but it wasn't a good game.
by Aaron Campeau on May 1, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Going into any game, you want to pummel the opponent into embarassment and exhaustion.
The close ones hold up better in retrospect.
It’s like how everyone’s talking about the Bulls and Celtics now, when the Cavs or Lakers could crush either.
Though if you are expecting an awful Silva start
and you get an awful Silva start, and it turns into an awesome Mariner win. That’s sometimes pretty nice. But I agree, this was awesome, but I don’t think it qualified for super fucking awesome.
...and now I'm here
Best warm and fuzzy feeling game.
But this game today was definitely the best game of the year just for sheer suspense.
We're 14-9.
This is the best game of the year. Tomorrow, however, is going to be better. I called it.
by Sinking Away on May 1, 2009 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions
BP's playoff odds (before tonight's game)
Put us at a 40% chance to take the division.
We average 83.5 wins, which wouldn’t net second place in the central or east.
Hooray for aspiring to be the tallest midgets!
Fuck that, we're going to be the Dwarf among Midgets
by Indigo_Satellite on May 1, 2009 11:08 PM PDT up reply actions
We are going to WIN THE WEST.
We will not be the best team in the end, but we will have the best record. We will win because of the wins we are getting now. Put it on the board.
by Sinking Away on May 1, 2009 11:24 PM PDT up reply actions
Watching the repeat, interesting to see Hines right inthe middle of the thumping of Lopez--
one way to support your infield charge, I suppose
A's are complaining about Eveland. And we've got to put up with Silva who is far worse than Eveland.
I really wish I had been able to catch more than bits and pieces of this game.
WOOO MARINERS!
You can't hide from the omnipresent eye.
Slap me for getting ahead of myself.
But how scary would we be in the playoffs with a Felix/Bedard 1-2 punch?
Seriously though, while it's definitely far too early to go nuts
the Mariners are the type of team that could have a lot of success in the playoffs.
by Aaron Campeau on May 2, 2009 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions
I was thinking last night
How we would likely play and match up well against Boston which would lead to a ALCS with the Wildcard and Seattle having HFA.
Indeed.
“I don’t know what’s going on with my bat,” Lopez said
You can't hide from the omnipresent eye.
Priceless
Think of what he could do if he DID know what was going on with his bat.
I woke up around 615am to check the score on my blackberry, and it was just as Branyan was being IBB in the 9th.
I then watched the Lopez AB on mobile gameday and went back to sleep with dreams to having his big latino booty lying right next to me.
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
by EnglishMariner on May 2, 2009 2:39 AM PDT reply actions 5 recs
So I want to repeat this here, mostly for Graham's thoughts...
Why do we think Silva is anywhere near a league average pitcher? Ignoring this year, his FIP may have been 4.63 and 4.24 the previous two years, but isn’t Silva a prime example of why that is inadequate? His tRA in those years was 5.92 and 5.05 and his tRA* was 5.14 (worse) than his tRA in the 5.05 year (though it was 5.43 last year)…
Maybe I am not understanding it correctly. I know tRA is not supposed to be predictive, but if I am reading it right it does seem since 2006 he has been a considerably worse than league average pitcher, with the one exception being a ~league average 2007, in which his tRA* suggests he was mildly lucky just to post that number. The years it is sandwiched between are replacement level, and this year has already started off equally awful.
I am open to thoughts on this.
...and now I'm here
I'm no longer convinced he is.
I still don’t think he’s this bad and he’s perfectly serviceable as a back-end starter, but his performance so far this year leads me to believe that 2004, 2005 and (to a lesser extent) 2007 were major outliers. His absolute ceiling seems to league average at this point.
by Aaron Campeau on May 2, 2009 3:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Before the year started I was open to believing he could be,
but even though it is a small sample, it is a small sample that is following one full year of the same, with no indications of change except for random articles about offseason weight loss.
In addition, though, I was more curious about how the thoughts that he might be league average should be taken from his tRA. Even though tRA is not predictive, it should have been seen as indicative, right?
… It would be great to have starting pitching depth right now. I wish there was something we could do with Silva that doesn’t seem like either a complete waste of money or equally as ineffective. It’s not like he can be converted to closer, even if the job was open.
...and now I'm here
Also, in case I was unclear -
Say I am a fan of another team, and I don’t follow the Mariners. I know this season is about to start, and I look up Carlos Silva on Statcorner. I see his tRAs – in this hypothetical scenario, why should I think that Silva had any shot of being league average in 2009? Or is that more of a judgment call based on watching him pitch, knowing the history of his pitching, skillset, etc.?
...and now I'm here
Coming into this season you would look at his WAR and tRA over the past few years
and see two above-average seasons, one dead-average season and two bad ones. I don’t think it would be unreasonable to believe that he was capable of being a league average sort odf starter, especially when you consider how terrible the defense behind him was last season. tRA removes defense from the equation to the greatest extent possible, but when the guys playing behind can’t get to anything I’m sure it can have a serious effect on your pitch selection and workload.
At this point, though, the assumptions (even though I think they were reasonable at the time) look to be pretty clearly wrong.
by Aaron Campeau on May 2, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the last time I called Silva average was in early 2008
And I qualified that saying that he’d be average in front of a better defence.
Still, whoops
by Graham MacAree on May 2, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions
And we didn't have past tRAs at that time.
So we had 2007 tRA, when he was about average, and his past FIPs which looked mostly average.
Hey
If you switch FIP to tRA, I did pretty well. =).
...and now I'm here
Ah, that's exactly what I was wondering.
“Average in front of better defense” makes far more sense than “league average pitcher.” That was where my confusion was. Too bad that not even Gutz can catch a bullet.
...and now I'm here
The plot thickens on Sir Carlos
Wakamatsu stayed with Silva, but when he walked Giambi with two outs in the fourth inning, the manager went to his bullpen and Silva remained mired in a slump now into its second season in Seattle.
"We’re going to come to the ballpark (today) and re-evaluate what we’re going to do," Wakamatsu said.
Silva opened the game with a 6.14 earned run average over four April starts. It’s May – and that ERA is now 7.36. His time in the rotation is hardly infinite, and neither is Wakamatsu’s patience.
Bob Condotta’s take (@ Baker’s blog)
Indeed, while there may still be lots to criticize about this team-something has to be done with Carlos Silva-you can’t criticize this team’s effort and will. (As an aside-- Wakamatsu was asked about Silva and said he got too many balls up in the zone that were hit hard. But he also said he just wanted to enjoy this win and would save a more thorough introspection of it for later. He indicated the powers-that-be will discuss Silva and who knows what that means down the road).
Silva to the Bullpen mop up role, Batista to the rotation
Obviously not what I would want to happen, but I could see this as a realistic scenario if they do drop Silva… either that or a made up injury, but that wouldn’t really make much of a difference in the long run.
by Indigo_Satellite on May 2, 2009 4:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Bill Bavasi, Thank you.
It’s like choosing between a swift kick in the nuts or a 2×4 in the gut. Pick your pain.
"The Lord spared the fitten and the rest he seen fitten to die."
Lincoln’s reference to growing up in Hardin County, Kentucky (now Larue County)
Beluga Tits or, uh...Sweaty Tits?
I'd rather know a little about a lot than a lot about a little
call me crazy but give me silva any day over eveland
despite the contract, at least he has a trackrecord and sinker ball pitchers for the most part can be effective.
eveland completely sucks, his mound demanor is horrible and hopefully out of a job w/ gio/gallagher/mazzaro/simmons etc ready to go in AAA in the future
I'll go right ahead and call you crazy, then.
It’s not just about having Silva over Eveland, it’s about having Eveland’s contract situation over Silva’s. The money we spent on him buys us an actual middle of the rotation pitcher who can, you know, pitch.
Whatever, I'm still pissed about him being shitty beyond what shitty can be
There needs to be something that separates the rest of the baseball players from him, at least in discussions. And right now, this is all I got.
Well, if Dana Eveland doesn't work out.
It’s really no harm no foul (well, except game-wise). Yea, despite fan angst he’s only making peanuts and can be moved out anytime.
Meanwhile, with Carlos Silva, you’d be dealing with the 2nd year in his 4-year $48 Million contract with a very realistic possibility that he really can’t pitch in the Majors anymore. Not to mention he has an attitude problem and apparent mental issues.
And getting guys based on Track-Record, especially at the expense of talent, is what helped sink this Mariner team in years past.
.
Meanwhile, with Carlos Silva, you’d be dealing with the 2nd year in his 4-year $48 Million contract with a very realistic possibility that he really can’t pitch in the Majors anymore. Not to mention he has an attitude problem and apparent mental issues.
And if that’s not depressing, I don’t know what is.
Oh well. 14-9!!!!
I knew he would never make it to the end of that deal
and if he gets bumped, the braintrust deserves all the credit in the world for realizing that he’s a sunk cost.
by JI on May 2, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm stilll not convinced he's a sunk cost and given the tremendous amount of money they'd be eating I'd be shocked if they do it.
by Aaron Campeau on May 2, 2009 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions
But with that being said he's quite obviously going to be a sunk cost before the contract is up
and Goddammit that’s annoying. The Mariners payroll is #10 in MLB at $99 million. Take Silva’s salary out and they’re #14 at $87 million. Top third to middle of the pack. Argh.
by Aaron Campeau on May 2, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions
If we had any depth the could dump him and it wouldn't be that ridiculous
I bet he gets slotted into the mopup role, and if he pitches ok he stays, if he’s poor they might DFA him before ST 2010 ends.
by JI on May 2, 2009 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions
I can definitely see that happening.
I’m less convinced he’s incapable of being a MLB pitcher due to a lack of ability and more that he’s mentally broken.
by Aaron Campeau on May 2, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree. There's no reason to DFA Silva this year.
Just dump Batista and give Silva the mop-up role that Batista currently fills. Silva might figure it out again. He did have WAR values of 3.4, 3.3, and 3.0 on his three best years with the Twins after all. He sucks right now, and he might be the worst contract in Mariners’ history, but he’s not a lost cause yet.
That 3 WAR year was actually a lot closer to 2 WAR if you use tRA.
Which you should. 2 WAR is league average and kind of changes your perception of the Carlos Silva that was signed before last season.
by Aaron Campeau on May 2, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Quite true. I should've remembered that.
I’m still getting my head around tRA – I’m going through the old posts that explain it, but I can’t think fluently in it yet like I do for FIP.
Russel Branyan is at 0.8 WAR for the year so far.
His contract pays him $1.4 million for this year. That is all.
I just want to say I love you guys.
So very much. You’ve made me interested in reading a Mariners blog.
Also, I love the current Mariners. Even if they start losing, they’re fun to watch, and to me that’s really all that matters. Which is probably why I’m slipping two games per week down the standings in one of my fantasy leagues…
Welcome! We hope you stick around, Orion.
Just a friendly warning: although off-hand jokes about it can sometimes be okay (but are still courting danger), keep anything related to fantasy baseball in the Official 2009 Fantasy Baseball Thread. Otherwise, you will be mercilessly mocked and jumped on.
Also, question for the Sexy People: should we repost the fantasy baseball thread so that it shows up on the front page again?
Warning duly noted.
I can deal with being mocked, though. Seattle sports fans should be used to it by now. When the Gods weren’t mocking us, it was Bill Bavasi.
Oh, the Gods still aren't through with us.
Just look at our despair over Clement, Aumont, and Morrow.
Morrow I understand.
If Aumont’s move to the bullpen is more than temporary, I would like to strike Zdurenciek repeatedly in the groin with a blunt and hopefully spiked object. How many top pitching prospects do the Mariners intend to ruin?
Well, to be fair, GMZ didn't draft Aumont,
and there’s been chatter that he’s not mechanically sound enough or too fragile for the rotation, but what people are upset about is how he gave up on Aumont way too early. It might prove correct in the end, but we don’t like the process on that one. Otherwise, he’s handling our good propsects in A and A+ (Lorin, Ramirez, Pineda) and decently good prospects (Adcock, Lorin, and Hensley) well.
I only speak for myself (obviously) but I really dislike the use of 'we' in a situation such as this.
by Aaron Campeau on May 2, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
You're right. I'll be more careful.
I should say “the general consensus at Lookout Landing.” That’s what I meant.
Ramirez may not be long for the rotation either is a popular rumor
but I’d like to watch him at HD before I form any opinion of my own.
It's not one that I've heard from any reputable sources
by Graham MacAree on May 2, 2009 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I thought Churchill has mentioned it
though I don’t believe you consider Churchill a reliable source.
Or Ken Behring
"The Lord spared the fitten and the rest he seen fitten to die."
Lincoln’s reference to growing up in Hardin County, Kentucky (now Larue County)
Sometimes statistics are wrong...
Carlos Silva isn’t as good as the advance metrics try to give him credit for. Isn’t there something about pitching statistics that assumes that the player is at least a major league quality player?
Carlos Silva sucks. Even though we don’t really have any rotational prospects waiting in the wings, his roster spot is more valuable than the umpteen million dollars that were spent when Bavasi bought him from from the used cocaine dealer.
Get him away from this team.
This signature space for rent.
The advanced statistics say he blows goats for quarters.
by Aaron Campeau on May 2, 2009 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would enjoy watching Carlos Silva blow goats for pleasure.
by Robert on May 2, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Someday this will be my sig.
Don’t worry, you will be credited.
...and now I'm here
"Isn’t there something about pitching statistics that assumes that the player is at least a major league quality player?"
The assumption was that MLB quality pitchers would allow roughly the same amount of hard contact as one another, which is another way of talking about LD%.
Now the advanced stats measure LD%, so there is no assumption.
by Graham MacAree on May 2, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
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