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A Thought

Kris Benson has thrown 212 pitches this year. Hitters have swung and missed at six of them.

Benson throws two different breaking balls, a changeup, and two different fastballs, with his four-seamer topping out around 90mph.

Ordinarily we'd use Benson's swinging strike rate as evidence that he's bad. And it's true - relative to the rest of the pitchers in the league, Benson's a pile of shit. But you can also look at this as evidence of just how obscenely talented Major League hitters really are. Most regular people tend to struggle in the batting cage against 60mph and 70mph fastballs. A lot of people who played in high school will suffer against 80mph heat. And that's when they know exactly what's coming, and have a general idea of where it's going to be. Major Leaguers, meanwhile, have gone up against Benson and missed exactly six times out of 212 chances despite his velocity, unpredictable location, and repertoire breadth.

That's crazy. The fact that there are dozens of guys who throw 90+ with three pitches and survive as pitch-to-contact starters...it's easy to lose sight of sometimes, but now that I sit down and really think about it, that blows my mind. Maybe even more mind-blowing is the fact that the best swinging strike rate in baseball last year was 15.4%. The best. That's crazier. Major League hitters are fucking good. I might make fun of Yuni all the time, but I'm not going to challenge him to home run derby at the lake.

It's also interesting to me that a guy like Jo-Jo Reyes can throw basically the same stuff as Benson and manage to miss four times as many bats. I mean, I get how it happens - there's a lot more that goes into pitching than velocity and pitch variation - but think about how small and subtle the differences must be that lead to such divergent results. If it comes down to simple things like grip and delivery, why can't Benson change to be more like Reyes? Why are we forced to accept that he's Kris Benson and will always be Kris Benson, instead of someone way better?

It's been a weird day for my brain.

Star-divide

Another thought:

Carlos Silva gets hit all the time.

Carlos Silva's most hittable pitch is his fastball.

Carlos Silva could miss more bats if he threw more offspeed pitches.

Carlos Silva has chosen instead to do the opposite and throw way more fastballs.

Carlos Silva therefore doesn't want swinging strikes and would prefer instead to have the ball put in play as often as possible.

When the ball's been put in play against Silva, bad things have happened.

Carlos Silva either stubbornly believes that his luck will eventually turn around, or he is incapable of recognizing patterns.

Therefore, either Carlos Silva is aware of things like BABIP and statistical unsustainability, or he's a moron.

However, a pitcher who always allows a ball in play in every at bat will have something like a .330/.327/.518 batting line against, good for a .370 wOBA.

Therefore, Carlos Silva is a moron.

1 recs  |  Comment 28 comments

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Comments

Display:

Maybe Silva's sinker just doesn't sink anymore or something

Something is very wrong with pretty much this whole team’s pitching philosophy though.

by OlSalty on May 1, 2009 2:27 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Our pitchers would be awesome if I directly controlled their minds.

Felix would get way more groundballs, Bedard would throw that beautiful curve a freaking lot, Washburn would be focusing more on changing speeds and less on young girls, and Silva presently would be taking a hacksaw to his right arm.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on May 1, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wonderful post Jeff.

I’ve often wondered the same things myself.

"Fights begin, finger prints are took, days is lost, bail is made, court dates are ignored, cycle is repeated."

by Thingray on May 1, 2009 2:48 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

In my very first AB in a real game I hit a bloop double off a guy who was probably throwing 65mph.

I never hit a double again, and then pretty much never hit a single again. There is nothing more adorable than an Englishman wielding a baseball bat.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on May 1, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've never even tried to hit a fastball before.

The closest I’ve ever tried was hitting a softball thrown overhand, and that is tough enough. I suppose if I saw enough pitches I could get the timing down, but then imagine having to deal with a curve or a change?

No thanks.

"Fights begin, finger prints are took, days is lost, bail is made, court dates are ignored, cycle is repeated."

by Thingray on May 1, 2009 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've looked silly on a few breaking balls in my day

and I stopped playing after 9th grade.

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on May 1, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Curveballs were always the worst.

They would start behind you, and as you are ducking away it lands in the zone for a strike.

by Wilder. on May 1, 2009 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Haha

I always hoped they’d hit me. I was a terrible hitter but I could take a pitch, and once I got on base I could steal like a fiend.

I was like a white Juan Pierre.

Paris Hilton, Burberry plaid, reality TV, mullets, Zima, Dubya, and the Sonics being sold to Oklahoma City. - Yahoo Answer results for "7 Signs of the Apocalypse"

by bluemax on May 1, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would love to try that.

I had some nasty wiffleball pitches back in the day.

"Fights begin, finger prints are took, days is lost, bail is made, court dates are ignored, cycle is repeated."

by Thingray on May 1, 2009 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This post reminds me of one of my favorite Dugouts

YOUR WIFEEEEE

IF I WAS MANAGER I'D HAVE A FIST FIGHT WITH YUNI RIGHT NOW AND KNOCK HIS FUCKING MONKEY HEAD CLEAN OFF (~EM)

by seattlecougar on May 1, 2009 3:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Jeff, add to that

that many of these hitters are power guys that are swinging from their heels on nearly every hack.

by johnbai on May 1, 2009 4:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I remember my first joint

Formerly Mariners124M... Username was sorta bland, so I'm changin it up

by BQueezy on May 1, 2009 4:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Attendance during Silva starts

My wife didn’t feel she could deal with watching Carlos Silva pitch so took our tickets to work to give them away. She thought she would have a pretty good chance since there has been quite a bit of Mariners talk since the season started. However no takers with the talk moving towards general Silva suckatude.

Unscientific, small sample size conclusions:
1) Mariner fans don’t want to watch Carlos Silva pitch.
2) Watching Jr bat does not make up for number 1.

by jaketrash on May 1, 2009 4:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

However, watching Junior bat does make up for watching Jarrod Washburn pitch

except two of the Mariners fans at the last game I went to kept heckling Griffey and saying he was washed up!

by seattlebruin on May 1, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've thought about this a few times, how even the shittest mlb player is miles better than the rest of us.

I mean, I was a decent enough hitter in high school. I could drive the ball into the gaps fairly regularly(although I only ever hit 2 over the wall) and I took a bunch of walks. But somebody like Benson or Silva would just destroy me every single time. Especially since, while I could read pitches that were high or inside or outside, I could not for the life of me read pitches that were low. Carlos Silva would eat me alive(no that isn’t a fat joke).

You can't hide from the omnipresent eye.

by Goose on May 2, 2009 12:33 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think that's a good thought for all fans to keep in mind.

But I also think what what Jeff pointed out in the post he wrote today – about how Silva is doing absolutely everything wrong – outweights all that. You should strive to do your job really well and approach it with a mindset that allows you to sustain excellence in it – I respect anyone who can do that in any decent occupation, even the lowliest. But Silva’s a bad role model, he doesn’t mix his pitches, he blames his failings on others, he falls apart in adversity, lets his negativity poison others – everything you don’t want to be in life, Silva reflects that in his pitching. That’s why I don’t respect him. He’s an “asshole,” as this nifty book I read defined one. I almost never consider a baseball player’s failings to be moral failings, but I make an exception with Silva because of what Jeff highlighted. I think he’s a genuinely awful human being, and if he doesn’t shape up, I would pay him $25 million dollars to not be on the team in 2010 and 2011.

by Decatur on May 2, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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