Projections: Felix Hernandez
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 6, 2009 9:45 AM PDT
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PrintI've fallen behind on my schedule for posting these so I'll be trying to throw them up over the next week or so. We projected Ichiro last week.
You know the deal. How do you think Felix will do this year? Make the next step to finally become an elite SP. Continue to be good but not amazing. Or regress significantly. You chose.
| Season | Team | Starting | Start-IP | Relieving | Relief-IP | Value Runs | Value Wins | Dollars | Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | - - - | 140.9 | 666.1 | 140.9 | 14.1 | $56.2 | $1.3 | ||
| 2005 | Mariners | 24.4 | 84.1 | 24.4 | 2.6 | $8.9 | |||
| 2006 | Mariners | 38.6 | 191.0 | 38.6 | 3.8 | $13.9 | $0.3 | ||
| 2007 | Mariners | 40.1 | 190.1 | 40.1 | 4.0 | $16.3 | $0.4 | ||
| 2008 | Mariners | 37.8 | 200.2 | 37.8 | 3.8 | $17.1 | $0.5 |
(Table stolen from Fangraphs...hopefully ok?)
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Depends
how many WAR will an elite closer get?
Obviously this depends heavily on the number of innings pitched and the closeness of those games
but Rivera, Papelbon, and.. was it Lidge? were all in that neighborhood last year. Putz’ ungodly good 2006 saw him rack up 3.6 WAR but that should be taken as more of an absolute maximum than an expected value for a relief ace.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 6, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm bearish on Felix.
His GB regression, and the fact that the strikeouts aren’t coming as often as I seem to think they come (Felix striking out fewer than 8 per 9 innings isn’t exactly where we envisioned him when he first came up from the minors) have left me feeling that he’s still a little ways away from being a Cy Young candidate.
I voted 4-4.5 WAR because I just don’t see him taking a big step forward this year.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 7, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions
I think that is pretty reasonable
and it looks like a lot of people agree with you (me too). Felix has the potential to do whatever you can imagine but I think the most likely scenario is a really good year with small steps forward hopefully but I don’t know if he will take the leap to become the next Pedro Martinez (and these expections are and were always unfair and unrealistic).
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 7, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
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