25-man roster released
by acblue on Apr 4, 2009 4:13 PM PDT
82 comments
Stone has the story at Baker's blog.
So...Tui? Really?
Not a ton of other surprises; Jakubauskas makes the roster so good for him. I would have liked to see Wilson on the team to take Ichiro's spot, but apparently Cedeno can play the OF so whatever.
Also, there's this:
--Ken Griffey Jr. will start in right field on Opening Night in Minnesota, and Endy Chavez will be the leadoff hitter.
Endy Chavez is the worst hitter on the team and he gets the most PAs. Griffey gets to play on the turf at the Metrodome. Neat.
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Hopefully Griffey is out of the outfield when Ichiro returns.
Endy Chavez leading off? A new way indeed.
You can't hide from the omnipresent eye.
by Goose on Apr 4, 2009 4:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The Chavez thing is really bizarre.
I get that they want speed there, but how about Gutierrez?
by acblue on Apr 4, 2009 4:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously, he's probably barely going to have an OBP over .300
He gets on base about as often as Yuni does, and Yuni is batting 9th because of that fact.
by OlSalty on Apr 4, 2009 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok
Using your reasoning both Gutierrez and Chavez have an OBP of near .310 career. Also Chavez is batting .500 for the spring, while Gutierrez is batting .324. Really it’s only 9-days, besides we need Gutierrez down in the order more because of his maturing power which Endy has lacked his entire career. OK, flame away.
by C-Nage on Apr 4, 2009 8:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gutierrez is a better hitter than Chavez.
He’s still developing and I think he’s likely to outhit Chavez by 20-30 points of OBP this season. And my problem with hitting Chavez first is that it’s bad strategy; sure, it’s only nine games but a bad decision is a bad decision.
Also, as an aside, it’s always really bugged me when people make a statement and then close with something along the lines of “flame away.” It’s needlessly combative.
by acblue on Apr 4, 2009 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not flaming anyone
I would take Gutierrez over Chavez though, yes, because even though to this point he hasn’t been much better than Endy at getting on base, he’s 26 while Endy is 31. He has upside and the potential to grow into a better hitter while Endy isn’t likely to magically discover how to hit or take a pitch at age 31.
Like I was saying below, I know it’s 9 games and it won’t affect our season much. My problem is with the philosophy of “riding the hot bat” in general, because if the team ascribes to it in roster construction for the rest of the season it could be a big deal.
by OlSalty on Apr 5, 2009 1:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The organization isn't using this to "ride the hot bat"
I haven’t heard this from them anywhere.
by ThundaPC on Apr 5, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They may very well not be
I was just responding to the people who said they liked the moves because Endy’s/Tui’s bats are hot right now. If the team had some other reason for making those moves, good, I just hope that wasn’t their justification.
by OlSalty on Apr 5, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chavez surprises me a bit.
He hovers in the high teens for line drive rate and he hits a ton of ground balls, but he doesn’t get on base as well as he probably should. He’s kind of the Angels favorite hitting type but without the “good luck” randomness.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Apr 4, 2009 4:39 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm underwhelmed
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on Apr 4, 2009 5:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Tui...
Y’know, this is only for a few days so why not give him the ‘reward?’ if Griffey or Sweeney become, well their injury riddled selves this week, then he can be sent down for OF if need be. However, most likely the team just didn’t want to have to sneak Wilson through waivers again in a week, with ST stats still fresh on the minds of cheap teams looking for a 4th or 5th OF.
by MattoB on Apr 4, 2009 5:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This team still doesn't strike me as a finished product, even swapping out Tui for Ichiro
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on Apr 4, 2009 5:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I get that too..
Four outfielders, no lefty (not a huge deal), Washburn and Batista on the team still.. Just seems like something still needs to happen. Maybe that’s just me HOPING something still needs to happen, I dunno
by seattlesundevil on Apr 4, 2009 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm trying to figure out if it's because there really is something wrong with the team
Or because I’m just used to seeing a more “solid” roster where roles are more clearly defined.
If it’s the former, that’s a problem. If it’s the latter (which I’m thinking is likely) then I’ll get over it
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on Apr 4, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am betting that the team roster will look VERY different by August 31st.
by mark sobba on Apr 5, 2009 6:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd put the over/under at 10 of 25 being different
and I’ll take the over
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on Apr 5, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they believe Chavez' hot hitting from the WBC and ST
can transfer over for the 9 days Ichiro’s out, then it’s not an entirely bad idea. Setting aside the level of competition, Chavez appears to be hitting the ball well and not just getting lucky on infield hits.
I can also understand the 40-man roster crunch and their unwillingness to add someone like Wilson. I like the final bullpen a lot too, and it’s going to be interesting when Tyler Johnson comes off the DL.
And finally, I hope Opening Day is the only day Griffey sees the field while Ichiro is out.
by JLC on Apr 4, 2009 5:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think the whole "riding the hot bat" thing is a stupid philosophy for roster construction
by OlSalty on Apr 4, 2009 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
If you optimized your lineup every day to put your “hottest hitters” near the top of the lineup, do you think that would make negligible or a negative impact on the overall runs scored?
I’m not saying that it’s easy to shuffle the lineup like this, or that it’s easy to decide which hitters are legitimately hot, or that any players/managers are capable of resisting the long held traditions of having set lineups and roles, but I think it’s something that, in theory, can make a substantial impact.
Besides that, it’s 9 days. This isn’t going to make a huge impact either way.
by JLC on Apr 4, 2009 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because all players go through these little streaks and dry spells
And there is absolutely no way of telling when they are going to start or when they’re going to end. It’s taking the smallest sample size possible (a few AB’s in Spring Training or the WBC) and using it to predict future performance instead of the much larger available sample size of AB’s for that player (their entire career in the majors) to make a decision. That’s dumb. If you want the most reliable estimate for how Endy Chavez is going to hit, take the largest sample size of at bats you have and that’s going to give you the most accurate measurement, not a few at bats cherry picked from the bunch.
by OlSalty on Apr 4, 2009 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying that anyone should completely ignore their career stats
But I’m not advocating pure results based analysis either. Saying that there is absolutely no way of telling when a hitter is going to start a hot streak or a cold streak doesn’t mean a trained eye such as Wakamtasu’s can’t identify when a hitter is performing well. Over a 9 day interval, I think that’s perfectly defensible.
It also implies that you need to know precisely when a hitter is going to stop a hot or cold streak. Why not estimate? Why not do a study of all hitters in the history of MLB and establish via LD% how long an average streak lasts? And on a micro level, you could evaluate individual hitters by what periods of the season they have their hot streaks and cold streaks.
But that’s a bit of a tangent. The decision isn’t written in stone forever, as Wakamatsu can go with Gutierrez at lead off for every day after opening day until Ichiro comes off the DL. All we know is what Wakamatsu’s decided to run out there opening day.
by JLC on Apr 4, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For clarification
More generally, what I’m interested in is using scouting evaluation to make minute changes to a lineup on a weekly basis. I haven’t done any sort of analysis on lineup construction, since I believe simply stacking your best hitters at the top is sufficient. Making frequent, small changes to the lineup isn’t something I’m advocating, just something that may desire more study.
by JLC on Apr 4, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well let me put it this way
The whole “riding the hot bat” thing is why Jose Vidro was in the lineup so much these past few years. I’m extremely skeptical that it helps the team produce more runs than if the better career hitters were in their optimal lineup spots.
It’s impossible to tell how long a “hot streak” typically lasts because it’s not an objective measure. Technically one hit is a hitting streak of one. You would have to define the parameters of what a “streak” constitutes, find what the league average “streak” is and then use an individual players career statistics anyways to make a judgement about whether they are a “streakier” hitter than normal. And in all likelihood that’s just going to lead you to the conclusion that the better hitters are also the streakier ones because they get more hits in general and so more of them happen back to back to back.
by OlSalty on Apr 4, 2009 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When Vidro was hitting, that didn't hurt the team
what hurt the team was continuing to hit him 2nd or 4th when he was clearly sucking, and had sucked for quite some time.
by johnbai on Apr 4, 2009 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with a lot of this
Though my argument is based more on evaluating the hot streak in terms of how many line drives the hitter is hitting, how many walks and extra base hits they’re getting and the type of counts they are frequently getting into.
But as for defining what a “streak” is, I completely agree that it’s pretty arbitrary. A deeper analysis of sustained performance by hitters over the course of a season may shed some light. For example, a graph of the average MLB hitters LD% over the course of a season. Then extrapolate an average “streak” size from there.
Anyway, I basically see the Chavez at leadoff situation as analogous to the Sweeney vs. Shelton debate. It’s not the best idea ever, but it’s defensible and not likely to make a huge impact.
by JLC on Apr 4, 2009 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yeah it's only 9 days so it's not that big of a deal
But if it reflects the philosophy of the organization it’s a little concerning for the decisions they make in the future. For instance sending down Clement, a major part of this organizations future, for struggling in ST and giving Tui a roster spot his success when he’s entirely redundant now and likely just a replacement level stopgap for 3B when Beltre leaves.
by OlSalty on Apr 4, 2009 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey Miguel Cairo made the Phillies
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on Apr 4, 2009 5:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I dont get the complaining. They are going to hope the hot bats of Chavez and Tui
last for a week here until Ichiro comes back.
by Rudy4three on Apr 4, 2009 5:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If you buy into the "Tui has a hot bat" thing
it still doesn’t make any sense to have him on the roster. Where the hell is he going to play?
by BrianL on Apr 4, 2009 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who did you want in there?
Wilson or Burke or Morse or whoever wasn’t gonna play either
by Rudy4three on Apr 4, 2009 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burke would stand a shot of getting time on the field because he can play the OF.
For the next eight games the Mariners would have Wlad, Endy, Gut, and the perpetually gimpy Junior. Until Ichiro gets back, it makes sense to have someone else on the roster who can play the outfield competently.
Tui can play third and, I don’t know, maybe first?
by BrianL on Apr 4, 2009 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You really concerned that we are gonna suffer an injury in the outfield to one of those four?
It’s 8 days.. Cedeno can play the OF in case of emergency according to Wak
I personally would rather have a guy creaming the baseball right now (even if it’s only an unsustainable hot streak) for the next 8 days then Chris Burke who really wouldn’t provide anything other than an emergency outfielder
by Rudy4three on Apr 4, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let me just note that I dont care one way or another, we're talking about a week of the season
and a bench role that likely will have a very small to zero impact on the season
by Rudy4three on Apr 4, 2009 5:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the chance of Griffey sustaining an injury, or at least getting sore knees, is higher than you think.
If that happens, then we have Gutz, Endy, and Wlad with Cedeno as backup. So, two great defenders with weak bats, a horrible defender with an unproven bat, and someone who doesn’t regularly play outfield. This is micromanaging at its finest, but it would be nice to have a player that regularly patrols the OF.
On the flipside, why not bring up Clement? If Griffey plays any sort of OF regularly, he can get some DH at-bats.
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by JLProck on Apr 5, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even if they were riding hot bats.
I’m not sure how they’re going to make Tui work strategically. He’s not going to play in front of Beltre. He’ll be lucky to even see an AB.
Endy leading off I have no problem with. He and Gutierrez looked pretty good in lead-off from what I’ve seen.
by ThundaPC on Apr 4, 2009 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless
Wakamatsu plans to utilize his bench regularly. Perhaps strategically, to keep the other players healthy, and to keep the bench players fresh (increasing the likelihood of a Tui appearance). Guess we’ll have to wait and see.
by ThundaPC on Apr 4, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If that's the case, doesn't Ronny Cedeno make Tui redundant?
by BrianL on Apr 4, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see Tui as a possible DH vs. lefties
With Sweeney subbing for Branyan and Wlad subbing for Griffey, or Tui being an improvement as a hitter over Wlad, which you could certainly argue. He’ll probably get some pinch hitting and pinch running opportunities as well, especially for Griff.
by JLC on Apr 4, 2009 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wak already said that Griffey won't play vs the lefty Perkins in the fourth game..
So that is a fine opportunity to let Tui DH, and play Sweeney at 1B.
The question is gonna be how often does Wak let Griffey and Branyan face lefties. Judging from his quotes, Sweeney is gonna play 1B more than spell Griffey at DH.
I also wouldn’t put it passed Wak to get Tui some pinch hitting ABs in place of Betancourt or Chavez if the situation calls for it.
by Rudy4three on Apr 4, 2009 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he's going to go with Cedeno regularly.
But sometime in the first 8 games, in one instance, instead of Cedeno, he’ll go with Tui. This seems more for Tui than anything. It would kinda makes sense if it’s redundant in that case since you wouldn’t lose anything when you send him back down and take Ichiro off the DL.
by ThundaPC on Apr 4, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's little (no?) evidence that the "hot bat" has any predictive value at all.
There’s no reason to expect Chavez and Tui to keep hitting like this. It’s just hope.
by Teej on Apr 4, 2009 7:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For further reading on this subject, consult The Book.
Because, yes, it has IIRC, zero predictive ability.
by Matthew on Apr 4, 2009 8:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right.
I haven’t read The Book yet (trying to get a little more number-savvy before I jump into that beast), but I did read Dave’s summary of Tango and Co.’s research on hot and cold streaks.
by Teej on Apr 4, 2009 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's interesting for a lot of different reasons
I guess the question, at least in my mind, is whether or not a “hot streak” is the result of luck or the result of a brief improvement in the hitter’s ability. Perhaps the idea of being “dialed in”, so to speak, is a construct of the human psyche, something artificial that our minds make up to attribute a string of luck to skill.
I’ve usually thought a hot streak is a result of the hitter just becoming more focused. But it’s interesting that the predictive value is nil, as that would imply complete independence between strings of performances. I guess you’d also have to define what “string” is, though.
by JLC on Apr 4, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually just read that chapter earlier this afternoon.
According to The Book, you play the better hitter, leveraging platoon splits where possible, no matter the hot or cold streak.
by abender20 on Apr 4, 2009 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tui making the big club is bad news wrt Beltre playing here a whole lot longer.
Drayer’s been going on and on about how far he’d come from where he was last year, and it seems the Fo thinks he’s come far enough to step into Adrian’s shoes. Maybe I’m reading too much into this…
I don’t see anything wrong with hitting Chavez lead off. He’s not a good hitter, but he’s on a little hot streak now and there’s nothing wrong with batting him first for a few games before Ichiro comes back.
As for the rest of the roster, I’m betting there are at least three names that change before the month is up.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 4, 2009 7:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yea, I am not worried about the opening day roster.
Like DMZ pointed out on USSM, there is quite a list of guys who made it to the opening day roster in the past few years whom got cut before the end of April.
by Fin on Apr 4, 2009 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt seems to expect to be gone when Ichiro is back:
“I’m probably not going to be there that long, who knows, but it’s pretty cool to make it out of camp.”
by msb on Apr 4, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want him to be the close at some point this season so I can make a big sign that says "Jesus Saves" and take it Mariners' games.
by Vatinius on Apr 4, 2009 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Per Stone
Don Wakamatsu said that Ken Griffey in right is an Opening Day thing, but not necessarily the way it will be throughout Ichiro’s absence. In fact, he said that Griffey is likely to be DH in two other games in Minnesota, and sit out a fourth, out of concern for the effect of the Astroturf on his bad knee.
It would be kind of nice to have another outfielder on the roster now.
by BrianL on Apr 4, 2009 9:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We're facing Glen Perkins in game 4, a lefty.
out of concern for the effect of the Astroturf on his bad knee.
Whatever makes Jr. feel better about himself I suppose.
You can't hide from the omnipresent eye.
by Goose on Apr 5, 2009 2:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey wait...
What about that Morse guy he’s versatile and has done nothing but hit good.
You got slurved bitch.
by Slurvey on Apr 4, 2009 11:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ahem ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->
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by PositivePaul on Apr 5, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does all of this mean for Jamie Burke?
I know he didn’t make the team – does he still have a future in the organisation?
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
by EnglishMariner on Apr 5, 2009 4:08 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
In AAA, or as a coach maybe...
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Apr 5, 2009 4:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dear goodness, please don't tell Cranky Yankee!!!!
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by PositivePaul on Apr 5, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ICHIRO! didn't make the 25 man roster! WHAT THE FUCK!
I looked like four times just to make sure and I-CHI-FUCKING-RO! was not on the 25 man roster! Seriously, if this is some bullshit about him going to the WBC or something. Seriously, fuck this fucking team.
It isn’t even the first game and I’m already sick of this fucking team.
by mark sobba on Apr 5, 2009 6:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey hey hey
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
by EnglishMariner on Apr 5, 2009 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We do still have 1 40-man roster spot open, so I'm looking forward to seeing who we claim on waivers today
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on Apr 5, 2009 10:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
correct that we have 2 spots open
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on Apr 5, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We don't need anymore AAAA players
Tacoma is clogged enough
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on Apr 5, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He could play 3B if we trade Beltre
Deserves a spot on the roster more than Tui does
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 5, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's being a little too harsh on Tui
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
by I'm NOT Corco on Apr 5, 2009 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
What has Tui done? Plus Dallas McPherson is left handed. He’s hit the shit out of the ball at every level in the minors and is still young enough to turn into a major league player. Tui is younger but that probably just means he should be in the minors for a year or two more.
I really think Dallas McPherson would be a good fit for our team especially if we trade Beltre.
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 5, 2009 6:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's worse than Tui defensively at 3b, though...
…by a wide, wide margin.
And he’s worse than Morse there, too.
I thought McPherson might be a nice pickup this offseason in Branyan’s role, but I like Branyan waaaay better. There are reasons why McPherson’s not in the bigs right now, and it’s not necessarily because he’s not talented enough.
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by PositivePaul on Apr 5, 2009 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have a feeling Tui! is being rewarded more for his last name than anything else.
by Robert on Apr 5, 2009 11:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Time to pull the plug on the whole GMZ experiment
This guy is never going tog et us into the playoffs if he tolerates Endy Chavez hitting leadoff.
by JI on Apr 5, 2009 6:34 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
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