RRS's velocity

by Fett42 on Apr 4, 2009 6:15 AM PDT

So not that this hasn't been discussed before, but I decided in my spare time to quantify how important velocity is to RRS's value now that we know he'll be part of the rotation.

I know his velocity has been low this Spring, but hopefully he builds strength over the course of the season. I don't think anyone expects 90+ mph consistently out of his fastball, but if he can dial it up when he needs to it looks like a legitimate out pitch to go with his curve. Of course this also illustrates why he's so much better as a reliever.

If only Felix's swinging strike % increased at that rate with his fastball velocity...

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Great Work

Although it gives me even more freak out about with the Mariners. I guess that’s the glory of being an M’s Fan. Quick question: this chart only breaks down RRS’s starts, right?

by Decatur on Apr 4, 2009 12:28 PM PDT reply actions

Its actually all pitches thrown last year

by Fett42 on Apr 4, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Good work on the chart

Just one criticism. This suffers from SSS (small sample size) in my opinion, especially with the fastball. 750 pitches is pretty small amount when it comes to fastballs and a good part of that came from when he is a reliever. For example, with 88-90mph field, 16 swinging strikes out of 360 pitches can easily jump up by 10ABs against mediocre left-handers. Maybe I am being overly sensitive about the sample but it can does not seem the greatest when most starters throw around 3000+ pitches in an entire season if healthy.

One more thing, the swinging strike % in the 90+ category is probably higher due to RRS being put in against lefties with platoon split issues while he was a reliever. This I think this caused more of those strikes than the increase in velocity. This all assumes of course that most of those 90+ fastballs came with him as a reliever.

by tdot mariner fan on Apr 4, 2009 1:51 PM PDT reply actions

Sample size concerns are always encouraged, but just note that on things like swinging strike rates,

they stabilize pretty fast, provided that you have a representative sample.

by Matthew on Apr 4, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Righty/Lefty splits for RRS's fastballs over 90 mph

vs Righties:
Pitches: 114
Strike : 61.4
Swinging Strike : 14.9

vs Lefties:
Pitches: 88
Strike : 53.5
Swinging Strike : 15.9

So it seems that his ‘fast’ fastball is quite effective against righties as well.

by Fett42 on Apr 4, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Hm for some reason the '%'s aren't showing up

by Fett42 on Apr 4, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions

That is interesting

By the way, % signs only show if you put a space after the numbers for some perplexing reason, probably due to coding being built in.

by tdot mariner fan on Apr 5, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Looks like RRS is going to have to survive on his breaking stuff

Because I don’t see him throwing 90+ with any regular consistency as a starter. He was barely touching that out of the pen.

by OlSalty on Apr 4, 2009 3:51 PM PDT reply actions

He was never going to be a K machine

we all love him because he’s australian, wears glasses and has a hyphenated name. He was never going to be more than a 4/5 guy and I’m ok with that. Also, if only 20% of his fastballs are >90 but he can manage to throw that hard when it counts then he’ll be OK.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 4, 2009 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions