Fun With Numbers

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 3, 2009 3:31 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

Over the past three seasons, the Mariners have pretty consistently averaged ~1440 innings pitched and ~2550 fly balls + line drives allowed.

Over the past three seasons, Jarrod Washburn has pretty consistently averaged ~2.075 fly balls + line drives per inning.

Let's say that Jarrod Washburn throws 180 innings in 2009, with the same kind of batted ball distribution. What kind of effect can we expect our outfield defense to have on his RA (relative to average)?

Chavez/Gutierrez/Ichiro, +40 (estimate): +5.86 run benefit to Washburn, reduces RA by 0.29

Chavez/Griffey (or Wlad)/Gutierrez/Ichiro, +20 (estimate): +2.93 run benefit to Washburn, reduces RA by 0.15

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A lot of people out there are hoping that our defense makes Washburn look so good that, should we desire to trade him, another GM will be fooled into giving up something of value. The defense won't hurt, but for every one part defense, we're going to need five parts luck.

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Everyone's peeing on our sunshine these days

by abender20 on Apr 3, 2009 3:36 PM PDT reply actions

Park, defence, regression, luck?

It’s not totally out there.

by Graham MacAree on Apr 3, 2009 3:45 PM PDT reply actions

That's true, but those 0.15-0.3 runs off his numbers will also stack on any small sample size deviation

It’s quite possible that halfway through the year he will look like a halfway decent pitcher.

by OlSalty on Apr 3, 2009 3:46 PM PDT reply actions

I consider that luck

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 3, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions

He'd have to put together a streak better than his Twinterest-inspiring run from last year to get takers, right?

by abender20 on Apr 3, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm sure there will be takers as long as he's healthy and normal

it’s just that I don’t think there will be takers willing to surrender real value unless something crazy happens.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 3, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions

A low 4s ERA isn't totally out of the question

That’ll have value at the deadline

by Graham MacAree on Apr 3, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions

I hope the Royals contend

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 3, 2009 4:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Horacio Ramirez and Washburn on the same staff together with Jose Guillen in the outfield would be just horrible.

by abender20 on Apr 3, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions

It's shocking what happens when you go out of your way to pick up the worst parts of a mediocre team

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 3, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions

I wish they didn't have Miguel Olivo.

by abender20 on Apr 3, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions

And Bloomquist at shortstop.

by Wilder. on Apr 3, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions

And there is a ridiculous amount of parity (NL especially) this year

So it’s likely there will be a good number of teams in the mix at the deadline for starting pitching.

by OlSalty on Apr 3, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions

I did neglect to factor in the regime change, and that has to be a big difference with respect to tradeability.

The demand for Washburn should be higher based solely on what should be a much more reasonable expectation of return.

by abender20 on Apr 3, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions

It does require luck to be on our side too

But it requires a smaller amount of luck than if the defense wasn’t as good. I don’t really expect it to happen but for some reason teams were interested in him last year even as he sucked so who knows if he seems to show “improvement”.

by OlSalty on Apr 3, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Personally, I'm hoping for Defenestration...

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Apr 3, 2009 3:48 PM PDT reply actions

Won't the poor patrons of the Hit It Here Cafe be upset with that?

by abender20 on Apr 3, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions

I think they'd be more upset if he survived...

You got slurved bitch.

by Slurvey on Apr 3, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Of course, our OF defense last year was by no means close to average

so the improvement of his RA over 2008 will be greater than the numbers you listed.

by Matthew on Apr 3, 2009 4:19 PM PDT reply actions

Well, sure

but his RA last year was over five.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 3, 2009 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks Debbie.

by Matthew on Apr 4, 2009 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions

Just to be retardedly optimistic on a crappy sports day in Seattle.

What if he has another 2002 where he gets a ridiculous number around 2.5 fly balls + line drives per inning.

What if he also has a stupidly lucky 6% HR/FB.

What if he pitches at a 200 inning pace and has logged 100IP by July 1st.

What if our outfiled plays at 30<x40 pace.

I see four big what ifs that could possibly happen if he decides to pitch up a bit more and gets lucky regarding home runs.

You won’t pull off the heist of the century, but you get to shed a bit of salary during a year with lower attendance. Also you definitely can get more value back than whatever you get from someone else signing him after the season.

by Sec 108 on Apr 3, 2009 4:47 PM PDT reply actions