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13-9, Game Notes

I'm undecided. On the one hand, I really hate the macro approach to dealing with games like today's. Saying stuff like "a 3-3 road trip isn't bad and we all would've been happy with a 13-9 April before the season" undersells the fact that the Mariners could've done a lot better. We've lost games we should've won, and today was another, as we went in with a pitching matchup lopsided in our favor and a White Sox lineup still without Jim Thome. Using the team's record to relieve the pain of a bad loss shifts the focus away from the fact that the team could've done more, and that bothers me.

But on the other hand, I can't help but think that maybe that's more sensible than flipping out. Even the best teams in baseball lose 60-70 games every year. Most of those games are close. Nearly every loss comes as the result of blown opportunities. To get all up in arms whenever your team has a frustrating game, then, is to wish that it were better than it is, and that isn't realistic. A team that never loses a competitive game would go like 158-4. So perhaps it's healthier to step back for a broader view. The Mariners have lost some games they shouldn't have lost, but they've also won some games they shouldn't have won, and the overall picture is one of a team in first place.

Right now I'm caught somewhere in between. I'm happy that the Mariners have put themselves in front a seventh of the way through the season, but a game like today's just really eats at me. While I know that you can't expect an ace to be on top of his game every time he takes to the hill, you never see a game like this coming ahead of time, and 13-9 with the 3-4-5 guys coming up feels so different than 14-8. The Mariners had the advantage in this game and probably should've won, and the fact that they didn't is simultaneously forgivable and a huge pain in the ass.

Not a whole lot to point out about another game that took place while I was at work:

  • I'd almost forgotten how quickly a pitcher's numbers can change this early in the season. One lousy outing brought Erik Bedard's strike rate back down to Earth and his swinging strike rate down to its lowest mark since 2005. Were I to evaluate him today, rather than a little while ago, I'd be more inclined to say that he's still not all the way back. I don't know if that's fair, mind you, since he was absolutely amazing through his first four starts, but such are the vagaries of small sample statistics. You can use them to say one thing today, but come tomorrow morning the picture could easily be different.

    Bedard just didn't have any shred of command this afternoon. He walked three guys, twice gave Carlos Quentin the ol' how-do-you-do, and only threw 59% of his pitches for strikes. It wasn't his breaking ball, either - it was his fastball that was darting all over the place, and when you're a guy who sets up his out pitches by working off his heater (you know, like every pitcher in baseball), it's bad news when you can't consistently put that 90 somewhere in the general vicinity of where you'd like it. Rather predictably, Bedard didn't last very long. This was a bad start, and though I won't be concerned until it becomes a pattern, it'll certainly remind everyone that our 1-2 starters are far from invulnerable. Curiously, I have yet to hear an explanation for his substandard start. I choose to blame the weather, but is it possible that he was pitching the whole game while under the influence of drugs? Sure, why not.

  • Fitting that Shawn Kelley blows up right as I'm singing his praises. I wonder if pitchers ask for the game balls after things like this so they can take them home and light them on fire. I'm not going to blame him for Quentin's home run - that was a well-located 2-2 fastball that Quentin was able to take the other way - but I'm not sure he could've given Jermaine Dye a worse fastball if his name were Kris Benson. Or Vicente Padilla. Or pretty much anyone on the Rangers, really. It might be a while before Kelley throws another two-strike fastball to a right-handed hitter.

  • Ichiro, Mike Sweeney, and Yuniesky Betancourt have gone a combined 181 plate appearances without drawing an unintentional walk. Jamie Moyer has drawn three.

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Comments

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Weird thing about Bedard was that where he usually hits 90-91 on his fastballs I saw him hit 93 on a lot of pitches… I guess he was just trying for too much velocity and not enough control?

by Roy Weaver Stuckey on Apr 29, 2009 9:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Not usually the case.

It was just a bad day for Bedard his velocity was a pretty cool and with deception it must’ve looked like 96 or something… But today was just a bad outing for Bedard nothing was really working for him.

You got slurved bitch.

by Slurvey on Apr 29, 2009 9:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The walk thing is getting silly

You’d think eventually one of them would accidentally walk, like after losing track of the count and not realizing they were at 3 balls and needing to swing at everything thereafter.

by Gihyou on Apr 29, 2009 9:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Post game comments from Shawn Kelley and Erik Bedard pretty much confirm this analysis.

Bedard said he just didn’t have the command today. Kelly, meanwhile, was fine with the pitch to Quentin but really did not like the pitch to Dye.

One thing I’m encouraged about is Wakamatsu apparently being disappointed in only going 3-3 for the road trip when the team could’ve swept the White Sox. I like this, because in years past it seemed like the team was content on a .500 road trip no matter what the circumstances were. I think one time in 2007 we won five in a row then lost five in a row and Hargrove was like “Hey, .500. Not a bad road trip.”

Really, it feels different watching this team. We have a 13-9 record, best for the team in April since 2003, yet my reaction is basically “Yea, it’s alright.” On one hand, this was supposed to be a development year of sorts. Put together a defense-laden team and see what happens. On the other hand, it’s hard to ignore that what’s been put together has a real chance of making the postseason given the circumstances of the division.

And for me, losses like these are annoying because I don’t want this to suddenly fall apart. I felt the same way after yesterday’s loss. The difference yesterday was despite the annoying loss we only had to wait less than 2 hours for the next game. Today, we have to wait over a day till the next game wondering if the team will bounce back.

The offense seems to be heating up, thankfully. Seems criminal to see all the baserunners that were stranded and thinking “Well, at least we had baserunners.”

by ThundaPC on Apr 29, 2009 9:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That Moyer stat is amazing.

Dude’s hitting .167/.455/.167.

by Teej on Apr 29, 2009 10:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Let me take this a bit further. Moyer > Yuni in opportunities to win.

Runs win games. Runs scored are possible only if you are on base or hit a home run. A walk puts you on base where you are in a position to score a run. Jamie is a obvisouly a selfish veteran looking to pad his stats (I know, a dead meme), but Yuni and Sweeney are “helping” the team by swinging at balls?

by Sinking Away on Apr 29, 2009 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

 Ichiro, Mike Sweeney, and Yuniesky Betancourt have gone a combined 181 plate appearances without drawing an unintentional walk. Jamie Moyer has drawn three.

You’d think I’d be used to hearing this by now, but I’m not!

by JLC on Apr 29, 2009 10:19 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think Jr. needs to motivate Yuni to take some pitches.

If he takes x# of pitches in a game, Junior buys him dinner, or doesn’t fine him in kangaroo court. It seems unlikely that his butt is going to see the bench after this series, even though I firmly believe that it needs to. Can any major league player with his baserunning skills and his plate discipline be on the all-star team ballot? I sure hope not.

by Sinking Away on Apr 29, 2009 10:32 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Regression to the mean can happen at any time.

Just sucks that it happened to both Bedard and Kelley in the same game. On the flip side, looks like Adrian, Griffey, Gutierrez, and Lopez are starting to hit.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Apr 29, 2009 11:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

While I agree with this statement as it misrepresents regression,

isn’t a day where command of the fastball is gone the very thing that creates the lower bounds on someone’s performance abilities?

by Sec 108 on Apr 30, 2009 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

This has the smell of truth about it.

What was unsustainable about Bedard’s pitching was not so much the no HRs allowed, or the 9K/BB as the fact that he wasn’t making any mistakes. In every start so far, he’s had great stuff and great command, was executing his gameplan to near perfection and walking a few inches above the profane earth we mere humans walk on. He’s bound to slip here and again, and that slipping isn’t going to be when he can put his fastball and curve wherever he wants.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 30, 2009 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Has to regress somehow.

It’s not as if he pitching like an awesome madman was going to force him back towards the mean.

At the end of the year, all his bad control starts are mixed in with his dominance to establish the culmination of his stat lines. Aside from microanalyzing every single start, we only see it as staying within the scope of probability.

In light of that, why not just call it Bedard’s form of regression?

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Apr 30, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because regression is what happens when unsustainable results are no longer the outcome of a player or team's performance.

Endy Chavez is the same hitter now that he was on April 4th, but he’s not getting the same results. That’s regression.

Erik Bedard was not the same pitcher yesterday that he has been all season. That’s something different.

by acblue on Apr 30, 2009 6:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know what regression means.

As Graham pointed out, I’m misleading with my use of it. I just don’t see how he’s supposed to regress when he’s pitching so well.. Pitching like crap can give us the illusion of statistical regression without any actual regression.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Apr 30, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

On the big picture ideas...

Suppose the Mariners win 2/3 of games started by Felix and Bedard, and they make 32 starts a piece (perhaps wishful thinking, but let’s go with it), that’s 42 wins.

Suppose the M’s win half of games started by the other rotation guys. That’s 49 wins. Add ’em together, you have 91 wins and a probable division win.

Winning half the games pitched by Washburn/Silva/et.al might be a bit bullish, though, so let’s say that those starters basically combine to shit the bed once out of every 5 starts. You just know Silva’s going to have those days where you get buried and that’s the end of it. Now, take the 50% after you account for the “shit the bed” games. That’s 39 wins.

39 wins and 42 from Felix/Bedard get you to 81 wins overall.

So far, we’ve won 7 of 10 Felix/Bedard starts and 6 of 12 Bus/Silva/Jak/RRS starts, and three of those were arguably shit-the bed games (8-2 L to Detroit, 9-3 L to Tampa, 8-0 L to the Angels). Sure, it could be 9 of 10 and 8 of 12 (17-5 overall) for the others with a little better timely hitting and Morrow not fucking up in the Metrodome. But if we can sustain this pace for a little while, we’ll be looking pretty damn good regardless.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Apr 30, 2009 3:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

What's funny about this comment

is that you’re using a ‘what if’ method to arrive at essentially the same conclusion as the projections. The team was projected as a ~76-78 win team on talent, but they played well out of the gates and are four games over .500. If they play to their talent level the rest of the way, regardless of who is getting the W’s, they get 80 wins, plus/minus a couple depending on whether you thought they were more a 76 or 78 win team.
If Bedard is healthy through the season and Felix keeps pitching like he has his last two starts the projections should be adjusted a couple of games in our favor and you’re looking at an 84 win team. At this point, I’m very curious to see how the Rangers’ pitching and Oakland’s offense shake out going forward, as I have a feeling it’ll be one of those two teams that’s making a late season run at the title.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 30, 2009 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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