Lookout Landing: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:

Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Spencer Hall's Sports Meme Power Rankings

Here We Go

Tiny by Matthew on in The More You Know Comment 154 comments

We're 10% of the way through the season (already?!) and a current look at the PECOTA-adjusted playoff odds shows this:

Cur_medium

Yeah, that's the Mariners up top both in current standings and in likelihood to still be playing after game 162. Interestingly, each individual team is projected to finish below .500, though it is still likely that one of the teams takes advantage of its crippled zebras for companions and breaks away from the pack. As it stands now, PECOTA thinks the Mariners are the most likely candidate to be that team.

Have we over achieved to date? A bit, yes. You cannot really count on continuing to win 1-0 games all season long. But there is no escaping the math and the math said this division lacked a top tier team and the two at the top have both experienced key pitching injuries. And importantly, the games already played aren't going to be replayed. They are history and the history favors us. It is a tenuous lead though - the Mariners cannot let the coming regression from the pitching staff overtake some hope for progression from the bats. Today is the start of three games against Anaheim. Keep going Ms.

0 recs  |  Comment 154 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Read More: Seattle Mariners

Comments

Display:

I feel like we're backing into the post season and it's still April.

When the rest of the division loses, just win for once!

by Kermit. on Apr 24, 2009 8:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Pitching is definitely due for some regression

I just hope it coincides with the offense picking up a bit. Between Branyan coming back, Beltre learning to not hit the ball at people, and Lopez and Ichiro getting to a more normal pace, we may be ok.

I want to poop at your house - Thingray

by tootthekazoo on Apr 24, 2009 9:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I feel like it's the hitting

that is way out of line with career norms not the pitching. Bedard is pitching very much the way he has when healthy. Felix too. Washburn you can argue has been producing unexpected results but he was also one of the guys standing to gain the most from an improved defense in Safeco during a cold spring.

There are more reasons for the run scoring to improve dramatically than there are for the prevention to worsen, even marginally.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 24, 2009 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not really

we figured if you tossed ten live arms out there, you’d find five or six good ones, and that’s exactly what’s happened. They may be overachieving slightly, but there’s no reason to believe they shouldn’t be really good, assuming they don’t live up to the Ministry of Silly Walks moniker.

by seattlebruin on Apr 24, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can't wait to be the AL west winner

with a losing record.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 9:07 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

After the year we went through in 2008 this concept completely blows my mind.

Being in the race is all that I wanted in my best case scenario but to be the favorites and have a sizable lead after 10% of the season? This year has the potential to be more fun then 2000 and 01 combined.

by Robert on Apr 24, 2009 9:24 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm already having more fun this season than I did all of last season

and I haven’t even watched every game. This season is great so far.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's so utterly foreign to be back into the this line of thinking again.

I was asked about going to see the movie Sugar this weekend and my first response was to ask about showtimes that didn’t conflict with Mariner games. I look forward to watching baseball again! It’s been 20 months!

by Matthew on Apr 24, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I couldn't watch any of last night's game

and I actually regret that this morning. It’s been a long time since I felt like this, and I love it.

How was Sugar?

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Was FSN broken up there too?

I called Comcast and the guy was incredibly cranky, which is not necessarily out of the ordinary, it just wasn’t very helpful.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lightning hit the transmitter

there wasn’t a damn thing Comcast could do about it

by JI on Apr 24, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ah. That's annoying.

But it would have been mildly helpful had Comcast told me that (if they knew).

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can't wait to see that movie.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a good baseball movie, but everything I’ve read/heard about it sounds terrific.

by sammy on Apr 24, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's a chick movie wrapped in a baseball context

I have nothing really against it, but it’s more about the quest for a relationship than it is about baseball. Baseball’s just a plot device. It could have been set in any industry and worked just as well.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That sounds like Tin Cup and golf.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Apr 24, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It seemed totally realistic

to take 14 shots with an identical outcome in the last round of the US Open, before totally nailing the last one, didn’t it?

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't know, I never made it that far.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Apr 24, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

So, we've come to the conclusion that...

Kevin Costner in all of these movies ruins the sports aspect of them

I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ

by Fuzz on Apr 24, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is the same as saying that Serenity isn't sci-fi because it is a western by genre.

Baseball movies aren’t a genre; by definition baseball is a plot device. You could say the same thing about Bang the Drum Slowly (it’s a drama about mortality) or Bad News Bears (it’s a coming-of-age comedy) etc etc etc. Field of Dreams is absolutely a baseball movie.

by acblue on Apr 24, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Not to be circularly pedantic

Baseball movies aren’t a genre

and yet

Field of Dreams is absolutely a baseball movie

hmmmm.

I guess what I mean when I say Field of Dreams isn’t a baseball movie is that the baseball in it is incidental to the plot – the plot being a guy trying to reconnect with his father. Yes, the same can be said for Bang The Drum Slowly and Bad News Bears; but when I think “baseball movie” I think of things like Major League, Bull Durham, and the like, where the actual playing of baseball games in the context of a season is more of a central character than it is in Field Of Dreams, where the playing of games is tangential to the plot.

It’s a very fine line that I’m not explaining very well here, but that’s the line I draw.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Genre and plot device/story setting are entirely different things.

Samurai movies are westerns even though there aren’t cowboys.

by acblue on Apr 24, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or maybe cowboys are samurai! Magnificent Seven baby!

I like both your points actually, and find it odd that I think of Bull Durham as more of a relationship movie (aging player increasingly marginalized by youth and facing life after baseball), and For Love of the Game more of a baseball movie (aging player flashing on his life for inspiration while on the mound giving the best performance of his life). Those might actually be close to the same movie, now that I think about it.

by Kermit. on Apr 24, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was kinda kidding

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah I know

but that movie was running on cable the other day and that’s the first question that popped into my head

by JI on Apr 24, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure, but at the same time

portraying Shoeless Joe Jackson as a misunderstood hero irks me. I guess there’s something interesting to be made of Weaver, Cicotte, Jackson as a tragic figures, sure, but they get off way too lightly. That and that the 1919 White Sox weren’t even close to being the greatest team of all time and actually had a worse record than the Reds. Baseball is hard and even if they were trying their best, the Sox couldn’t have just won the World Series if they only wanted to.

by JI on Apr 24, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think the film posits them as the greatest team of all time, though

In fact it does a pretty good job of portraying the 1919 Sox as an above-average team with horrific ownership and several players with a desire to “get what’s theirs” in the Series rather than to win.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I remember the manager saying that it was the best ballclub he ever saw

Sure that’s, open to interpretation, but that implies they were really really really special.

by JI on Apr 24, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but what's a manager of a baseball team supposed to say in a movie?

The movie as a whole doesn’t romanticize the Sox, I don’t think – it does cast players in a rosy light, but the team as a whole isn’t really portrayed as a mortal lock or anything.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's worth pointing out that as much as I love John Sayles

every single movie he’s over made is revisionist and overly simplified.

by acblue on Apr 24, 2009 12:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm curious - how should SJJ have been portrayed?

I haven’t looked into this since the 80s; have historians determined he really was in on the fix?

by marc w on Apr 24, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Last I read,

He took the money, of that there was no doubt. Whether he actually tried to throw games? He claims he didn’t and based on the play by play, it would be hard to claim that he did than didn’t.

by Matthew on Apr 24, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

according to DMZ he asked out of playing the first game

and if my memory is correct he played uncharacteristically poorly in the field at key moments.

by JI on Apr 24, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jinx.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Apr 24, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, lots of triples according to wikipedia

There’s some bizarre stuff about him being forced to waive immunity, and having the team lawyer shove whiskey down his throat before testimony.

I have no idea what to think. The defensive stuff points one way, his offensive performance points the other. The other conspirators seem to exculpate him, but he took some money.

by marc w on Apr 24, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alledgeldy he also tried to give the money back.

Not sure if that point has been categorically disproved by historians yet or not.

by appleshampoo on Apr 24, 2009 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see all that.

I immediately suspend all reality when I watch movies so it affects how I feel about them.

Stupid 10 pin - Thingray

by Sec 108 on Apr 24, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the Love of the Game is a great movie

"Get up you crazy black man, I'm gonna make you drink my piss!" - Will Ferrell.

by gregrabble on Apr 24, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eight Men Out was pretty good.

I’ve never seen (or heard of) Fear Strikes Out. The other three are meh to me. I loved the Natural as a kid, but it’s unbelievably hokey to me now. The Sandlot’s a good kid’s movie, but not really about baseball.

by sammy on Apr 24, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For the Love of the Game

I swear I saw a different movie. I’ve seen it recommended around these parts, but the movie I watched in high school was one of the worst movies I had ever seen. I’m not the Costner hater that a lot of people are, but the acting and dialogue were unbearable.

by Teej on Apr 24, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, the Detroit Tigers had the best defensive game in history

How hard would it be to consult a real baseball person to make the action feel real? … unless I’m completely missing something

by JI on Apr 24, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe they shouldn't have played the Yankees

so they players could have realistic numbers, not have all the players wearing #62 and such

by seattlebruin on Apr 24, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This whole thread, and no mention of Mr. 3000.

That made me happy.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Apr 24, 2009 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Again, basic consulting

Wouldn’t Mr. 4000 make more sense?

by JI on Apr 24, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You expect a movie starring Bernie Mac to make sense?

Also, 3000 is the number that the sportscasters use to define a HOF career (“he has a chance to make it to 3000 at his pace”), much like 500 HR until they felt that list was getting crowded.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Apr 24, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Note: I can only recall Morgan and Phillips reciting this. (HR part)

But it was said often enough to warrant a search for the mute button.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Apr 24, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

League of Their Own, bitches

There’s no crying in baseball!

by appleshampoo on Apr 24, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Little Big League.

How hast his not been mentioned yet?

I go to law school. Therefore, I have no life.

by andrewgolfsalot on Apr 24, 2009 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I saw about half of 61* on cable once.

I thought that was pretty good.

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Apr 24, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It actually is pretty good.

Then again, I like Barry Pepper more than I probably should.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Apr 24, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I very much enjoyed 61*.

You can't hide from the omnipresent eye.

by Goose on Apr 24, 2009 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

It almost made me forget Berry Pepper was in Battlefield Earth.

Hard work never killed nobody, but I won't take my chances.

by JAH on Apr 25, 2009 5:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm somewhat terrified that if the M's don't continue to pull away

the Angels will come bulldozing back into first place once Guerrero, Lackey, Santana, and Escobar are reactivated. They will all be back by June, barring new setbacks, which is plenty of time to make up something like 4-7 games in the standings.

A sweep of the Angels in this series will widen the gap to a point where even a healthy Angel rotation may not be able to bridge it. The odds are in our favor, as they get to face Shane Loux, Jered Weaver (fun fact – the awful hitting, righty-heavy Mariners of the last several years own the second best team OPS against on Weaver, behind the Yankees) and a guy called Anthony Ortega, who spent most of last year being a hair worse than average in AA.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 24, 2009 10:29 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I know

but the Angels have outplayed their projections the last couple of years and I am not yet willing to believe that I am not hallucinating when I watch the Mariners play. The fact that they have been bale to beat some good teams even while missing the top 3/5 of their rotation bodes poorly for the rest of the division.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 24, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not entirely convinced Vlad is much to worry about at this point.

I also thought the Angels were decidedly mediocre (moreso than most) with an optimal lineup and rotation. So while I’d love to see the M’s put some distance between themselves and the Angels, I don’t think this is a situation where once LA gets back to full strength they’re going to start blowing everyone away. Oakland’s inevitable positive offensive regression is far more worrisome to me.

by acblue on Apr 24, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's not how it works

The games that have been played are already in the books.

Just because Oakland has had subpar offensive performance to date does not mean that any regression will necessarily erase the lead we’ve gained.

by manyoso on Apr 24, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

IOW

You can flip a coin a 100 times and it is possible (not probable) that it’ll come up heads all 100 times. Still, the chances it’ll come up tails that 101th time is only 50/50 :)

by manyoso on Apr 24, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's not making a logical error

He just believes Oakland’s true talent could be greater than the M’s, and by a large enough degree that it would wipe out the current advantage. You can agree or disagree, but this isn’t a gambler’s fallacy.

by marc w on Apr 24, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am more than aware of that.

But I think Oakland is still the best team in the division on talent alone and they scare me more than the Angels.

by acblue on Apr 24, 2009 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just know Clement would rake against the Angels were he to play

this weekend. He went to USC so he’d have that weird Jeremy Reed only hits in Anaheim thing kind of going for him, plus he’s a lefty which we sorely lack. And he’s so awesome.

I’m guessing he’s taking care of his new child though, which is more important, and the team would surely snub our Jeffie anyway.

by marinerdan on Apr 24, 2009 10:37 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's what will happen

We will have a 1.5 game lead over the A’s going into the final weekend of the season. We will get swept and the A’s will sweep. And two seasons would have been jaw-droppingly perfect if only the last three games of each had been swapped.

Such are the trials and tribulations of being a Mariners fan

by Graham on Apr 24, 2009 10:57 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

And I will accept this outcome and be ridiculously happy about it

because it’s a damn sight better than the last three years.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

This year has been a confluence of Mariner wonderfulness.

I found LL this offseason (or at least started paying attention to it), learned more about advanced statistics in baseball than I had ever even heard of, Bavasi fired, and now the M’s are churning along at a competent rate.

I haven’t been this excited for Mariners baseball since Felix got called up.

by abender20 on Apr 24, 2009 10:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It's encouraging that this team has won while actually not playing a whole lot different than we expected them to

The lineup is terrible like we thought it would be, but it will probably end up playing a little better than it has so far as Beltre and a few others start hitting. The rotation has been great like we thought it would be if a few things went right with Bedard and the defense, and obviously more than a few things have gone right with both (Though Washburn is probably due for some big regression). The defense has been stellar as expected. And with all that we’re 10-6.

by OlSalty on Apr 24, 2009 11:20 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

They've been way way way worse offensively than I expected and slightly better at run prevention

which makes me somewhat optimistic because I think the offensive improvement will more than offset the pitching regression.

by acblue on Apr 24, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Set us up oh cursed fate! So that we are struck down all the greater in the end of days... of the season.

This is shaping up to be a fun year. We all knew it would be a very close season. With every M’s win the final results just get closer.

Current Mariners status: Cautious Optimism.

by mark sobba on Apr 24, 2009 11:22 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Sharp turnaround from last year.

Where the season was basically over in May. Then we sat around waiting for heads to roll. Once that happened we had to plod through months of meaningless games to see who the new GM was going to be.

Give me a season where we’re at least playing meaningful games in September. I’ll take it.

by ThundaPC on Apr 24, 2009 11:38 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't plan to go to Safeco this year.

But I’m leaving £2000 set aside for if we get to the playoffs. How much would a single ticket for a playoff game cost off a scalper approx.?

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Apr 24, 2009 11:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

What about if Randy Johnson throws a no hitter for us to beat the Red Sox?*

*After being traded to us for Rob Johnson at the trade deadline.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Apr 24, 2009 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Johnson Swap

New reality show?

I'm more like I am now than I've ever been.

by ralphie81 on Apr 24, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sounds more like late-night PPV

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Search

User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.
Start posting about the Mariners »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Max_small
FootbaLL IV (Nov 21st)

by JamMasterJesus 3 days ago

43 comments | 5 recs

Small
The Sabermetrics of Cats

by ARock 8 days ago

148 comments | 9 recs

Recent FanPosts

Laughing_man_elmex_small
AFL Championship game thread

by Professor Hubert J. Farnsworth about 18 hours ago

39 comments | 0 recs

Smell-the-glove_small
OFFTOP 11/19 - The Hand of Fraud

by pdb 2 days ago

477 comments | 0 recs

Small
Tony Blengino interview on 710 AM ESPN Seattle's Hot Stove League

by ARock 3 days ago

15 comments | 0 recs

Ichirocameron_small
OTFPOTD 11/16: Recipes Edition

by Decatur 5 days ago

1082 comments | 0 recs

Small
Lookout Landing as a communtiy

by JetersNeverProsper 7 days ago

370 comments | 0 recs

Small
Royals determined to unload Callaspo...

by slamcactus 9 days ago

31 comments | 0 recs

Ichiro_small
Ackley and Triunfel on MLB TV right now

by Smegmalicious 14 days ago

102 comments | 0 recs

Small
Xbox LLive, Pt 3

by seattlebruin 15 days ago

1081 comments | 0 recs

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Recent Posts

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Photo link

Diamondbacks Acquire Pitcher Aaron Heilman

AZ Snakepit

San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum throws to the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of a baseball game, Saturday, April 18, 2009, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/George Nikitin) +2 updates

Tim Lincecum Edges Carpenter, Wainwright To Win Second Straight NL Cy Young

Photo

Mike Scioscia, Jim Tracy Named Managers Of The Year

More from SBNation.com >

Sexy People

1_small Graham

Small Matthew

Small Jeff