Jonah Keri: Washburn may be this season's Cliff Lee
by esoteric on Apr 23, 2009 9:36 AM PDT
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PrintWhy not dream big? Keri:
Jarrod Washburn is the new Cliff Lee.
First, let's address the reasons why a breakout season for Washburn might seem like a long shot.
He's 34.
He's struck out 5 batters per 9 IP (give or take a percentage point or two) in each of the past 6 years.
His walk rates have been tidy but hardly Maddux-esque at 2.5 to 3 a game.
His BABIP this year is a bound-to-regress .224.
His stuff is, was and always be average at best.
He's Jarrod Freaking Washburn.
As a point of comparison, Cliff Lee was five years younger when he had his breakout season in '08, with significantly higher strikeout rates, significantly better K/BB rates, and a dominant fantasy season (and very good, if not quite dominant real-life season) in the not-too-distant past (2005).
The biggest similarity connecting the two pitchers is their extreme flyball rates. Few pitchers in all of baseball put the ball in the air more often than Washburn (0.66 FB/GB rate over the past 5+ seasons) or Lee (0.61 in that same span). Those tendencies leave a pitcher vulnerable to inflated home run rates in a homer-friendly park. Luckily for Washburn, Safeco Field is not Coors Field, keeping his HR rates down to just a tick above average since coming to Seattle in 2006.
The bigger problem for Washburn with the Mariners has been the woeful outfield defense behind him. Specifically the defense in left field. Opposing managers routinely stack their lineup with right-handed hitters when the lefty Washburn takes the mound. That makes flyballs more likely to travel to left field and left-center than anywhere else. As Mariners fans can tell you--while gritting their teeth in agony--left field at Safeco was patrolled for five years by one of the worst defenders in baseball, Raul Ibanez.
Keri ultimately steps back from the Washburn-for-Cy-Young statement (read the whole thing, it's quite good), but joins one of his commenters in granting that Washburn-as-Kyle-Lohse isn't at all unlikely. I don't know that we should be too thrilled about that, however.
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I think Keri is looking at it from more of a fantasy standpoint
and Gutierrez and Chavez, plus an improved change will definitely help Washburn rack up the wins and keep his ERA down
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
His FIP was good (although his tRA sucked)
He also got more grounders than he had in the past. And this year he is looking pretty good.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 23, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions
It's amazing they could put a pitch to contact staff together and then run out Scumaker at second
and Duncan/Ankiel outfields
by JI on Apr 23, 2009 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions
At least Rasmus is getting starts
And it looks like Schumaker is actually playing pretty well at second.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 23, 2009 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions
He's looked terrible and had a -20 UZR
granted I haven’t seen all the games but he really doesn’t have the bat to carry a -10 / -15 glove
by JI on Apr 23, 2009 8:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Crap
I didn’t check his UZR, that really sucks. Although, I could swear I have seen him make some good plays so far this year. He may have some potential.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 23, 2009 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Less.
Mostly because I doubt your Google Alerts pick up everything that includes “Rays”. Otherwise, cut the Rays crap.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 23, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions
You realize when you do this on LL people will Rays hell?
Stupid 10 pin - Thingray
by Sec 108 on Apr 23, 2009 6:30 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
So I guess the annoyance level is therefore pegged to exactly how enervating you find the This Year's Rays meme to be.
I think it’s amusingly ignorant, but it doesn’t really piss me off.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
The Rays went to the World Series last year
Really, ESPN? You think the Royals are going to make it that far? Or do you just think they have the potential to be a surprise? Because in the case of the latter, maybe you should instead consider calling them a potential surprise. We don’t need people telling us that fairytale stories are going to repeat themselves every damn season.
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 23, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
But we had the Rockies! And then the Rays!
There has to be another fairy tale team this year!
Look out for the Natinals.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Apr 23, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm still holding out hope for the Next Michael Jordan, myself
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
He's not Mantle either
Come to think of it a healthy Mickey Mantle is pretty much the best player that ever was and would be hard to duplicate.
Or Bonds is allowed to play again
And he doesn’t need to be hopped up on pain killers and whiskey to do it!
I’ve always thought that the “if only he were healthy” thing was kind of a crutch created by rose tinted glasses. Albert Pujols has just about never been fully healthy- how much better can he really be? And let’s not forget that Beltre’s historic season came with a nagging, year long injury. There are examples of players playing at the highest possible level through injuries. And if Mantle was really that hobbled, why did he play cf for so long? You would think that his injuries would have hampered his ability to play gold glove quality cf for 10 years, forcing the Yankees to move him to a corner early in his career. I find it hard to believe that his leg problems were so severe that he was either literally superhuman before the injuries or everyone else sucked so much that they could not move a partial cripple out of center field.
holy shit its christmas.
I’m still holding out hope for the next Isaiah Thomas
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions
As an aside, it's quite possibly the weirdest experiment I've ever seen a small-school athletic program undertake
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
I am deliriously excited about it myself
but then I’m a masochist that likes public trainwrecks.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
The best part is there's a chance it's not an utter trainwreck
but it has nuclear waste trainwreck potential.
He’s not that awful of a coach, only as a GM, and it’s definitely plausible that college kids stuck playing small school ball will get really excited about playing for a genuinely famous coach and play their asses off for him. Plus, it might attract some high-major level recruits who wouldn’t have considered the school otherwise.
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I get the impression that Thomas is like at the level of Jermaine Jacksonin terms of strangeness.
He comes off as one of those people who’s probably just a genuine nutter, yet somehow no one has noticed yet.
I think we all noticed when he OD'ed on sleeping pills
said in court “I did not call that woman a black bitch, I just called her a bitch,” condoned Stephon Marbury’s truck party, and signed Jerome James to a 4yr/$30M contract and then he never played, NOT EVEN IN THE FIRST YEAR!
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions
My favorite part was when he swore it was his daughter who OD'd
even though he was the one in the ER. That poor kid’s gonna need some serious counseling at some point in her life.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
There's a difference between people who make bad decisions routinely
and those who are genuinely out there. I posit that a lot of people mistake Thomas for the former in the hopes that his great basketball talent will translate, but in reality he is basically a savant. Extreme talent for playing basketball, but a raving loony.
The funny about part about this is that it could be true!
There is a nuclear plant about 10 miles south of Miami that conveinently has a railroad run though the property
I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ
You'd think God would have wanted them to win the World Series
not just get close. Or that He would have wanted them to not have to win a one-game playoff just to get there.
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Is "enervating" your version of Gomez's "belies"?
by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 23, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Bloated?
Oh, you said ‘belies’.
by Graham MacAree on Apr 23, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It pisses me off to no end.
It further fuels the stupid idea that any team can go from worst to first as long as they have some young players. It gives no credit (well, not enough credit) to the people behind the turnaround, treating it like some crazy quirk in the game of baseball.
What the Rays did was only a surprise to those who weren’t looking, and it’s not going to happen every year. Grr.
Maybe go with Bucs.
And the logo will be a pirate stabbing a cute bear cub to death, but the sun will be shining behind him, which alludes to the franchise’s bright future.
by Elaine Thompson - AP
Bucs’ second baseman Freddy Sanchez, wearing the team’s new alternate jersey, waits on deck during the fourth inning of the Bucs’ 4-2 loss to the Seattle Mariners during an April 21, 2010 game.
by Decatur on Apr 23, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 9 recs
And a name change
they should become the Pirate and drop the “s.” Promotes team unity and all.
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
It pisses me off because
1) The Rays weren’t that big of a surprise
2) Very few people fucking understand how they improved so dramatically
3) Every young team that’s not the Nationals are getting touted as “New Rays” despite not being anything close to resembling that team. I doesn’t happen that often.
See, you just get too angry too damn much then.
As I said, I find it to be amusingly ignorant, for the reasons that you and Teej spelled out. But it sure doesn’t piss me off. Carlos Silva pisses me off. Joh’s contract extension pisses me off. This stupid meme? It makes me shake my head and say “oh well.”
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
Carlos Silva and Johjima don't piss me off.
In fact I called the Johjima extension ahead of time and think it is funny.
No, contracts can't be undone
But many in the media should know better, or should hire people that know better and they could use their powers for intelligent discussion rather than trying to make people stupid.
Silva's contract can't be undone, but that has no bearing on his poisonous behavior last season.
That’s what really pissed me off.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
He figured that was how he could be a dominany pitcher.
Like species, some become dominant by being totally bad-ass, like Randy Johnson. But some are lazy and useless, and get ahead by being poisonous to those who might try to eat them.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
This is significantly less annoying to me
because instead of just picking random team that resembles the Rays on the outside and saying “LOOK NEW RAYS!” Keri took a look at factors we actually expect to improve Washburn’s traditional pitching stat performance – such as whether his BABIP is luck, and how good his new outfielders are.
He even later admits in the article that maybe he’s not the next Lee due to his low K rates, but if you look at the similarities, lefty flyballers with suddenly amazing defense behind them, it makes sense to project him as a breakout candidate.
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
I'd rather compare Washburn to Heathcliff Slocomb
or Andy Benes, Randy Johnson, Rich Harden, or CC Sabathia… all guys who were traded before the deadline. If Washburn must become this years’ Cliff Lee to get us something more back and a few wins at the same time, so be it, but I’m looking forward to the day the he’s gone.
If Washburn is pitching well and we're in contention they'd better not trade him.
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 23, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions
As Graham pointed out to me the other day,
“you can only win if you have Washburn on the team. Sucks, huh?”
Word.
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions
We're not getting anything in return worthwhile
so if we’re winning we might as well ride the bastard out
I dunno, I'm over my Washburn hatred for the moment.
It’s possible it comes back, but he’s far from the biggest problem on the team and even though his current level of success is unsustainable he does look like a different pitcher so far this year. He’s the kind of player that has a place on a contending team and he’s not nearly as horrible a human being as Silva, so whatevs.
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 23, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
After having to watch him for what feels like an eternity, I just want him to go away,
but, like Graham said, we’re not winning without him.
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions
How good would he have to be this year
to pitch his way into a higher echelon of free agent? (The kind we get better draft pick compensation for.)
We've had this discussion in the past, and if I'm remembering right, the answer was that he'd basically have to run away with the Cy Young to be a type-A
and be way better than he has any right to be to be a type-B
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions
We would also have to offer arbitration...
which would never happen
I previously posted as "Man From Nantucket"
If he wins the Cy Young going away and is a Type-A, I'm totally OK with offering arbitration
because there’s no shot in hell he accepts, and to become a Type-A, he’d have to win the Cy Young going away
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions
I actually find Washburn entertaining to watch sometimes.
He works fast and he’s occasionally capable of making hitters look really stupid. But I realize that this sort of thing is entirely subjective.
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 23, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Like you said, it's totally subjective
and I’m just really sick of Jarrod Washburn
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions
A lot more fun to watch than Batista
I swear to god, during last night’s game, Dave would say “And here’s the pitch………and Batista holds the ball at the belt. And Batista about to go into the stretch” yawn “And now here comes the pitch..” on and on. God I can’t stand watching him throw the ball.
by appleshampoo on Apr 23, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions
It's funny that he's the only the third most hateable pitcher on our team.
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 23, 2009 2:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Totally consonant with acblue's point.
Silva = most hateable
Batista = second most hateable
Washburn = third most hateable.
Although I might move Corcoran up there before Washburn myself.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
I really, really, really hate Corcoran but it's mostly irrational.
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 23, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Hating Corcoran's pitching is completely rational
The guy is horrible.
Hardball Review Because we need another blog about the Mariners.
He's really not.
But he walks like he has a stick up his ass and his facial hair is absurd.
by Aaron Campeau on Apr 24, 2009 12:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Let's not be too hasty here.
He might have more value as a mop-up guy than as a SS.
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
Is it your goal to be the last fan of the worst player on the team every year?
I’m waiting for Last Fan of Carlos Silva to show up next season
by seattlebruin on Apr 23, 2009 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I drew short straw :(
by Last Fan Of Carlos Silva on Apr 23, 2009 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
Shouldn't that be "Only Fan Of Carlos Silva?"
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Apr 23, 2009 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Matthew asked me if I just picked the players that the mods hate to love
I’m pretty sure the tards just grow on me
It's time to start comparing walkon music to the chart.
http://flowingdata.com/2009/04/03/music-that-makes-you-dumb/
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
Same here.
Besides, it’s just too much work to hate Washburn when I have to devote so much to Yuni and Silva.
I'm more like I am now than I've ever been.
"and he’s not nearly as horrible a human being as Silva"
I don’t know. If there are any backings to those allegations in Anaheim….
Bold prediction:
Washburn starts the All-Star game.
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