Fun With Numbers

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 20, 2009 2:56 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

The Mariners currently rank #1 in pitching runs above average (pRAA), at +20.6. They are narrowly ahead of the Royals (+20.3) and way ahead of the Rangers (-24.6) and the Indians (-28.6). The rotation ranks #2, behind the Royals, and the bullpen ranks #4, behind the A's, Mets, and Red Sox.

The main reason the Mariners rank so high is because of their 3.9% - 3.9% - HR/FB rate against. The starters have only allowed five home runs, and the bullpen has yet to allow its first. This is going to regress in a hurry (9.8% last year, 8.4% in 2007, 10.7% in 2006, 9.9% in 2005, 11.0% in 2004, 9.9% in 2003, and 10.3% in 2002), so the offense needs to turn it on if the team wants to avoid a nasty slap in the face.

Our bullpen has a lot of people who throw a lot of balls. There's a reason some people like to call it the Ministry Of Silly Walks. And yet, somehow, the bullpen's strike rate of 62.4% is the fifth-best in the league, and its Zone% ranks #9. If you thought we were unreliable, all you need is a quick glance at the Rangers to understand how good we have it, relative to almost everyone else.

According to UZR, our defense is on pace to finish the season at +105, which would represent a 126-run change from last year. Our outfield alone is on pace to be twice as good as last year's league leader.

Four games ago, our offense had the lowest line drive rate in the league. Since then it has very quickly scooted up to 19% (yet we only scored nine runs over the duration. Huh). It's good to know that we can make a lot of decent contact, because it helps to offset the lack of walks, but if we want anyone to take this offense seriously we need Beltre to get going and Branyan to get healthy in the worst way imaginable. Otherwise we're just going to be patching together a whole lot of singles.

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Griffey, Beltre, Branyan, Lopez..

We can’t afford any one of these players to not reach their projections.

by Rudy4three on Apr 20, 2009 2:59 PM PDT reply actions

Don't forget Ichiro

by Ezzra on Apr 20, 2009 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions

You know we're a legit playoff contender in the West right now, right?

by Matthew on Apr 20, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't want to hear that from anyone.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Apr 20, 2009 6:41 PM PDT up reply actions

"You know what 4 singles equal,

a motherfucking run."

Does anyone know the source of that quote?

by appleshampoo on Apr 20, 2009 3:07 PM PDT reply actions

Hat tip to Kermit for the Ministry of Silly Walks moniker, by the way

But that is a bit surprising to see that we’re ok as far as strike rate goes. Be interesting to see how that figures itself out as the season carries along

I want to poop at your house - Thingray

by tootthekazoo on Apr 20, 2009 4:25 PM PDT reply actions