Series Preview: Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners

by Matthew on Apr 20, 2009 3:00 PM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

Seattle: 8-5
Rays: 5-8

SUMMARY

	MARINERS	RAYS	EDGE
HITTING (wOBA)	-17.1 (26th)	3.5 (13th)	TAM!
FIELDING (UZR)	8.4 (1st)	6.2 (2nd)	sea
ROTATION (pRAA)	15.3 (2nd)	-10.3 (26th)	SEA!!!
BULLPEN (pRAA)	5.3 (4th)	-3.9 (24th)	SEA!!
OVERALL(RAA)	11.9	-4.5	Seattle

GAMES

Game 1: Jarrod Washburn* vs Andy Sonnanstine
Game 2: Chris Jakubauskus vs Jeff Niemann
Game 3: Felix Hernandez vs James Shields

The Rays rotation has been horrid to start the year, with all five regulars pitching below average. It's early of course, but Sonnanstine has been missing fewer bats and missing the zone more often than last season. He's been lucky so far to have only given up a single home run.

Niemann never has been much of a strike thrower and just like last year, when he hits the majors, his ability to miss bats drops markedly along with his ground ball rate. At 26, he strikes me as just a place holder for David Price.

Shields was the real deal last year but early into 2009, he's lost two points on his swinging strikes which have transfered almost directly to batters putting pitches in play more frequently. That's led to a drop in strikeout rate. Shields' line drive rate is also up, not a good sign ever, but made worse by the higher percentage of pitches thrown ending up in play.

Endy Chavez and Russell Branyan are our only two hitters above average so far this year. Carlos Silva and Roy Corcoran are our only two pitchers below average so far this year (defense independent even!). Our defense rocks. We are on pace to allow just 561 runs. We are on pace to score just 685. The 685 is actually believable.

THIS SERIES BROUGHT TO YOU BY:

Fat Scotch Style Ale
Silver City Brewing Company. Silverdale, WA

I've had this a few times and in a long enough gap of time that I essentially got a fresh look at it, and both tastes were pleasing and revealed a malty sweetness laden down with some fruity notes in the aroma that gave it an interesting character.

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Comments

Any update on Upton's availability for this series? I thought I heard

he had a sore hammy or something.

We got a good break missing Kazmir and Garza, and drawing Sonnastine and Niemann. Not to mention the Rays pen is scuffling. Good time to be playing them. I’d be disappointed if we didn’t take 2 of 3 here.

by Rudy4three on Apr 20, 2009 3:05 PM PDT reply actions

Upton's going to play but he does have a tight quad.

Percival/Wheeler are awful and Balfour is having an issue finding the strikezone, otherwise the pen has been fine.

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 20, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I live in such fear of the inevitable home runs

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 20, 2009 3:05 PM PDT reply actions

Now you know how it feels to be a Jered Weaver fan.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 20, 2009 3:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Retarded?

by Graham MacAree on Apr 20, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

That Jered Weaver, always living in his brother's shadow.

by Fin on Apr 20, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Jered Weaver fans are in denial

about his home run tendencies.

You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.

by bluemax on Apr 20, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions

I'll be at game 1 tomorrow

7th row for $20, fuck yeah

"Get up you crazy black man, I'm gonna make you drink my piss!" - Will Ferrell.

by gregrabble on Apr 20, 2009 3:14 PM PDT reply actions

If a pitcher has a hard time finding the strike zone

doesn’t that usually mean he’s going to shut us out?

by Rollo Tomasi on Apr 20, 2009 3:17 PM PDT reply actions

That was the 2008 theory, at least.

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Apr 20, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Has our approach changed?

With Branyan on the bench, I don’t expect to see a lot of deep counts and walks.

by Rollo Tomasi on Apr 20, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Ugh enough with Rays

We get it. We play them tomorrow. But this is a Mariners blog, let’s start acting like it.

by Robert on Apr 20, 2009 3:35 PM PDT reply actions 5 recs

Shut up Bitch

I don't care how well he does for the M's...FUCK ENDY CHAVEZ

by Fuzz on Apr 21, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions

Now Wednesday looks like a very good match up.

by Fin on Apr 20, 2009 3:36 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah makes that day game really tempting.

Too bad the weather is gonna be sucky. Weather sucks for Wednesday too.

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Apr 20, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions

True, but that is what the roof is for.

Also, I noticed the game started at like 3. That is a good thing, because I went to a 1 o’clock game on a Wednesday, and the traffic afterwards (the Mariners were playing the Red Sox, so it was a full house) was just absolutely horrible.

by Fin on Apr 20, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Branyan?

any word on his injury? how bad it is?

by Snuffleupagus on Apr 20, 2009 3:43 PM PDT reply actions

Hoped to be back for Tuesday. No definitive word yet.

by Matthew on Apr 20, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions

In 2004, Jeff Niemann was the best prospect in perhaps the most loaded college rotation ever.

In 2004, a 25 year old Chris Jakubauskas was getting lit up by Frontier league hitters as a long-reliever for the Florence Freedom (Florence is in Kentucky; I had no idea).

In 2009, it’s quite likely that Jakubauskas will get more wins and finish with a better tRA/FIP/ERA/whatever than Niemann/Humber/Townsend.

This is hilarious, weird and beautiful.

by marc w on Apr 20, 2009 3:48 PM PDT reply actions

Florence is Shaun Alexander's place of origin.

The only way I’ve heard of it

by Mariner John on Apr 20, 2009 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Florence Kentucky is famous for the Florence Mall/Florence Y'all Watertower dispute

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by Corco on Apr 20, 2009 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Nimman will be better

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Apr 21, 2009 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Beltre should start hitting at some point

It is a contract year.

by Ezzra on Apr 20, 2009 4:37 PM PDT reply actions

Well, he has been nothing short of Awesome at defense.

by Fin on Apr 20, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions

I wonder if people realize that n=1 doesn't make a pattern

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 20, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions

I tried making a neat looking pattern using n=1

But when I previewed it, it looked jumbled and gross and would only be funny if I were an ASCII artist

by d0nkey on Apr 20, 2009 5:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Did you know that Fett always messes up reply when his comment has an equal sign in it?

by Graham MacAree on Apr 20, 2009 5:24 PM PDT up reply actions 3 recs

I guess was assuming players perform better in contract years.

Perhaps I am mistaken. I wasn’t making the assumption based on Beltre’s 2004, though, just thought this was the case for players on average.

by Ezzra on Apr 20, 2009 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Am I reading wOBA right?

The M’s are currently hitting the ball as a team at a level barely above replacement level?

by PLU Tim on Apr 20, 2009 8:23 PM PDT reply actions

That does suck.

But I think if the Mariners are to compete, it would be the defense+pitching that carries the team this year.

by Fin on Apr 20, 2009 9:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Sounds about right to me.

by Mariner John on Apr 20, 2009 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Endy Chavez's .452 BABIP

Is likely unsustainable the whole season.

by Gihyou on Apr 21, 2009 12:53 AM PDT reply actions

You mean he won't put up a season as good as Willie Mays best?

Lame.

Jose Lopez roxxorz my boxxorz.
54!

by joof on Apr 21, 2009 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions

I was expecting a "HAWKS!" at the end.

I hope we add to Sonnanstine’s home run total tonight.

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Apr 21, 2009 7:54 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs

I have shamed my ancestors

by Robert on Apr 21, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions

M's GM Jack Zduriencik and Rays' GM Andrew Friedman

Yea, so Larry Stone has some amazing content with load of quotes from these two guys:

Column: What will the Rays do for an encore?
Blog: Lots more good stuff from Tampa Bay Rays’ GM Andrew Friedman and Jack Zduriencik

On a side note, not too long ago Stone checked in with Kevin Towers (Padres GM). Wonderful stuff.

by ThundaPC on Apr 21, 2009 10:44 AM PDT reply actions

Lineup!

RF Ichiro
LF Endy Chavez
DH Ken Griffey Jr.
3B Adrian Beltre
1B Mike Sweeney
2B Jose Lopez
C Rob Johnson
CF Franklin Gutierrez
SS Yuniesky Betancourt

LHP Jarrod Washburn

Yuni is starting. I would have bet against that.

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Apr 21, 2009 3:59 PM PDT reply actions

GOD

by Aaron Campeau on Apr 21, 2009 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions

DAMN

"The dark secret of LL is that it only exists so I can one day moderate Graham" ---Robret

by .Taylor on Apr 21, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions

Well I have someone to boo

by Graham MacAree on Apr 21, 2009 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Holy shit.

Sweeney still alive and batting 5th, Yuniesky not getting rectal splinters. I’m not loving the Don Wakamatsu Experience so far.

by abender20 on Apr 21, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Russ Branyan still isn't healthy?

Awww crap

by Graham MacAree on Apr 21, 2009 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd rather play Loafie at first and Cedeno at second than Sweeney and Lopez.

As much as it would be nice to not keep sending subliminal messages to Lopez to continue getting lazier, watching Sweeney and Griffey hit in the heart of the order decreases my quality of life.

by abender20 on Apr 21, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm a believer in hiring slow, and firing fast.

If someone isn’t producing, cut ‘em. At LEAST bench is arse. Nothing would get Yuni to produce like a little pine ridin’

by d0nkey on Apr 21, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe he's just slowly hiring Cedeno...?

Please, Wak, please. :o

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Apr 21, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions

That certainly is a possibility.

Yuni obviously has the talent to perform well. He just choo choo chooses to be a lazy bum. If I were Wak, I might not want to hastily put Cedeno in the spot and watch them both fail. I can see how he might want to slowly work Cedeno into the position to make sure he is capable of handling the mental aspect of being a starter. Also, this gives Yuni all the chances he can to see that his job is in danger, and see if that wakes his glove up.

by d0nkey on Apr 21, 2009 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Yuni won't see that his job is in danger if he is inserted in the starting lineup every single night.

by abender20 on Apr 21, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions

I guess I came off wrong

I was speculating that if Wak put Cedeno in from time to time Yuni might start playing to his ability if he felt like he was replaceable.

by d0nkey on Apr 21, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions

I think we all agree with that

Hence, tonight would be a good night to have Cedeno in there…he’s only played 1 in the young season at SS

by appleshampoo on Apr 21, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions

1 game, grb

by appleshampoo on Apr 21, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Should we call Tonya Harding to help get Cedeno in there?

I hear she isn’t doing all that much these days…

by d0nkey on Apr 21, 2009 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions

I approve of this idea.

Would solve our Yuniesky-related problems for the foreseeable future.

by appleshampoo on Apr 21, 2009 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Hire Bengie Molina, fire Michael Bourn.

by abender20 on Apr 21, 2009 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

by Kirsten Schlewitz on Apr 21, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Seriously why is he still starting

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Apr 21, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Yuni gives good reach-a-rounds?

by d0nkey on Apr 21, 2009 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Another reason to for Wak to keep him close in the dugout.

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Apr 21, 2009 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Well fuck

by OlSalty on Apr 21, 2009 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions

ASS

I want to poop at your house - Thingray

by tootthekazoo on Apr 21, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Yuni starting.

Thought it was a toss-up actually. Yuni is going to get enough rope to hang himself with. In fairness, there really wasn’t much talk about addressing the Yuni situation from the staff.

We’ll see how it goes.

by ThundaPC on Apr 21, 2009 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Also,

he has been hitting more consistently than pretty much anyone else on the team save Ichiro and Endy. He’s a free-swinger and that’s frustrating, yes, but he also has a 23.7%LD. With the rest of the line up slumping the way they have, it can’t be easy for Wak to just go ahead and bench one of the only bats in the lineup that hasn’t been struggling.

by sammy on Apr 21, 2009 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions