Carlos Silva Is Different

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 19, 2009 8:36 PM PDT in Miscellaneous

Carlos Silva has countless reputations, but first and foremost, he's always been known as a guy who throws a lot of strikes. A guy who just pounds the zone and forces the hitter to beat him. He was pretty good about it early in his career, but when he wrapped up 2005 having only walked nine batters in 188 innings, he cemented the perception that he can always hit his spots when he wants to. That was the year that brought Silva a lot of notice as a guy who's constantly going right after his opponent.

And the reputation has never been entirely undeserved. Silva's 2005 season, as one would expect, stands as an anomaly, but from 2002-2008, he's been pretty consistently above-average in terms of strike rate and Zone%. Just look at the following table, knowing that the average strike rate is ~63.5% and the average Zone% is around 50%.

Year	Strike%	Zone%
2002	63.7	56.5
2003	60.9	52.3
2004	64.9	58.5
2005	71.4	65.2
2006	66.5	58.2
2007	65.3	56.2
2008	63.8	53.6

Silva, for all his other faults, has always been able to locate the ball pretty well and stay in and around the strike zone. This has kept him from making too many location mistakes, pitching from behind too often, and issuing many free passes, all part of his gameplan to induce weak contact and let the defense do the work.

So with that track record in mind, I'd love for someone to explain this to me:

Year	Strike%	Zone%
2009	59.8	~44

Three starts into the season, Silva's strike profile looks nothing like normal, and that's with a repertoire consisting of like 85% sinkers (76 more today out of 94 total pitches). You have to wonder if it's deliberate - an attempt to get hitters to go after more stuff out of the zone - but then considering Silva's best season came when he threw the most strikes, that seems a little unlikely. Which makes me wonder what's going on, because this is a weird change for a guy who just got healthy and worked himself into way better shape.

Silva's groundball rate is up and his line drive rate is down so far, so don't misinterpret this as complaining. I'm as content with his performance as I'll ever be. It's more simple curiosity. Either this is an early-season fluke, or Silva is pitching differently than he ever has before in his career. Keep an eye on this. It shouldn't be too long before we get some answers.

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What strikes me as really odd about Carlos Silva is that he just can't pitch while ahead in the count

There were about 5 0-2 counts which turned into 3-2 just because he just would not throw strikes. I was joking to Matthew about it at the game but it really feels like that’s the one thing between terrible Silva and league-average Silva

by Graham MacAree on Apr 19, 2009 8:39 PM PDT reply actions

I really really really want to know what Carlos Silva thinks about Carlos Silva's ability

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 19, 2009 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions

...

In reality, I’m waiting for a Washburn/Tits style “I changed my grip, I’m a shiny new pitcher now!”

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Apr 19, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Death to Frying Things

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Apr 19, 2009 10:37 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

From what I've read of Baker...

…Silva seems to be pretty insecure these days.

Reading between the lines on the media reports from his MN days, I got the impression that his teammates thought that he would quit on them when the going got tough, but he was happy as could be when the team was winning. There were a couple of starts where he left the game with vague, mysterious injuries that never seemed to be mentioned again and Gardenhire would even say things to the extent that he questioned Silva’s desire to be in the game if the team was behind by a few runs. FWIW.

by ubelmann on Apr 19, 2009 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions

You know, it's 100% couch-pop psychology

but watching the game on television this afternoon, I noticed that when the camera panned to Carlos Silva at the end of the bottom of the fifth inning, when the M’s began to retake the field, the guy just looked terrified. The guy needs some luck in the worst way if he’s to get any confidence back.

by katal on Apr 19, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I think he just hopes that they'll swing at a pitch out of the zone when he gets ahead

Because the strikes he does throw are very hittable and maybe when he’s that far ahead he’s going for a strikeout instead of doing his usual pitch to contact thing.

by OlSalty on Apr 19, 2009 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions

It was infuriating

The 4th inning rally came after he walked Miguel Cabrera after an 0-2 count. He needs to be a contact pitcher, and if he has any command at all an 0-2 count is a great excuse to throw the ball in places where weak contact results but are still in the strike zone

by Graham MacAree on Apr 19, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions

I think if Silva wanted strikeouts he'd throw more than like 5 breaking balls a game

He clearly wants to pitch to contact, pretty much all of the time. I’d guess that he’s just determined to pitch to weak, out-of-zone contact whenever he has the opportunity.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 19, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions

But when that clearly isn't working what stops him from changing the game plan?

The way he was pitching was ramping up his pitch count and taking him out of favourable counts and into full ones, and he should have seen that.

by Graham MacAree on Apr 19, 2009 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions

I haven't gotten a chance to watch a Silva start (I know, lucky me)

but is he hitting his spots, or is he possibly wild in the zone and throwing it to the middle ala Morrow, and just not getting anything once he starts trying to pitch to corners?

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Apr 19, 2009 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions

It's hard to get a good idea of it from the third deck

But it felt like he was just trying to nibble once he got into good pitching counts rather than going after the batters.

by Graham MacAree on Apr 19, 2009 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions

How is the view from up there?

Fun crowd up there? I’m about to get tickets online for Thursday’s game and haven’t been in the upper deck yet

by Tony S on Apr 19, 2009 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions

If you can get near 331 (behind home plate) the view is great

by Graham MacAree on Apr 19, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions

Thanks, appreciate it

It would be a good view to watch Felix pitch a no-hitter

by Tony S on Apr 19, 2009 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions

I was in 331 on Friday.

Fantastic view of the entire field.

by BrianL on Apr 19, 2009 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions

I had gift tickets behind the 3rd base dugout friday

and found myself missing my 300 level seats— the ball would go down the line and I had no idea what happened to it … someone would stand to get their wallet out and the entire field would be obscured …. it was a lot harder to see the defensive alignment ….

by msb on Apr 19, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I've sat all over the park but I think the view box seats in the 300 level around home plate are my favorite.

by BrianL on Apr 19, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh and the Tigers fans behind us had me contemplating how much effort it would be to hurl someone off the upper deck

by Graham MacAree on Apr 19, 2009 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions

If they're fighting and not just dead weight, it shouldn't be too hard.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Apr 19, 2009 10:05 PM PDT up reply actions

It doesn't surprise me...

…that Silva’s top three seasons of Zone% came in MInnesota. Rick Anderson seems to do a pretty good job at getting pitcher to throw strikes. (I would also say that Don Cooper in Chicago is pretty good at this. There are probably a couple of other pitching coaches on that level, too.) Of course, it seems like whatever Rick Anderson might have taught him should have stuck with him, but I can’t claim to know what it’s like to work with a pitching coach or what goes on in Carlos Silva’s head.

2005 is interesting in that Silva injured his knee in Seattle in early April, and I think he pitched with some discomfort in the knee all season, but somehow managed to have ridiculous control that year.

It’s too bad what’s happened to Silva. In 2005, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball to watch. Not one of the best pitchers, but one of the best to watch. He worked quickly and pounded the strike zone. He would allow his fair share of singles, but erased a good number of them with DPs, too. Even in 2004 and 2006, his starts were at least quick, even if they were painful.

The Twins were pretty good about keeping his ego in check, but if you looked for it, you could see his attitude problems in Seattle being foreshadowed.

by ubelmann on Apr 19, 2009 9:13 PM PDT reply actions

Is 3 games really enough of a sample size to see if he has changed or not?

I would bet that in any given year (besides 2005) he would have stretches where his strike throwing was below his standards.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 19, 2009 9:23 PM PDT reply actions

I'd say three games is fine.

We’ve seen what is likely 10% of Silva’s starts for the season. While a larger sample size is certainly ideal, 10% seems fair.

Similarly, we’ve seen three starts by Erik Bedard and have been able to surmise that he’s 100% healthy. Yuni has only played for about 8% of the season, yet it’s also fair to judge that he’s back to his same old sucktacular ways.

by katal on Apr 19, 2009 9:55 PM PDT up reply actions