Series Preview: Detroit Tigers @ Seattle Mariners

by Matthew on Apr 17, 2009 10:11 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Previews

Seattle: 7-3
Tigers: 5-4

GAMES

Game 1: Felix Hernandez vs Justin Verlander
Game 2: Erik Bedard* vs Edwin Jackson
Game 3: Carlos Silva vs Rick Porcello

Early results on Justin Verlander have seen his swinging strike rate jump to previously unseen heights. It's a small sample, but these things also stabilize pretty quickly. However, his control has also plummeted, leading to an up tick in walks as well. He's also hilariously posting a 0.45 GB/FB ratio coupled with a massive line drive rate.

We spoke with derision at all the reports of Edwin Jackson and the "if he puts it all together" dreams. It was like Gil Meche all over again. Except Gil Meche did actually put it together eventually. Might that be happening with Jackson? Way way too early to tell, but it's now worth keeping an eye on because he's missing more bats and throwing more strikes. He also seems to have completely abandoned his changeup, becoming solely a fastball and slider guy, which leaves him vulnerable to left-handed hitters.

Porcello has just one start under his belt and he showed average command and a pretty small ability to miss bats. What he did do was keep the ball on the ground. We've seen the Ms hitters shut down by those pitchers already a few times this season, so I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again. We're a team that loves to make contact and pitchers like Porcello love to induce contact on their terms. I'm not confident that our lineup will exhibit the patience needed to force Porcello further up in the zone.

Still busy, but a quick note on the position players. Ridiculously small sample sizes, but so far the Mariners have been putting up one of the top defenses in baseball while the Tigers have been around average.

At the plate there is the biggest discrepancy between these two teams. The Mariner hitters have been 10 runs below average so far this year by wOBA. The Tigers, led by Miguel Cabrera and Brandon Inge, are 11 runs above average even with poor performances so far from Carlos Guillen and Curtis Granderson.

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Tricerahops Double India Pale Ale
Ninkasi Brewing Company. Eugene, OR

Frothy head leading behind some clumpy lacing. Pours a clear golden color. Aroma is a bouquet of differing hops, heavy on grapefuirt and floral. Nice citrus touch on the hop taste flagging into a well balanced bitter end, all with a solid enough malt backing to avoid it seeming like just hop water. Really nice body and does not feel its 9% weight at all. Perhaps my favorite new IPA on the local market.

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IPA done right

“Aroma is a bouquet of differing hops …all with a solid enough malt backing to avoid it seeming like just hop water.”

This is the real secret to good IPA: lucious hops aroma and a strong backbone of malt to support the hop flavor.

by philosofool on Apr 17, 2009 10:31 AM PDT reply actions

Porcello

He’s certainly shot through the system by pitching to contact and getting GBs. For someone whose pure stuff always made scouts drool, he certainly didn’t miss many bats in the FSL last year.

And I know it’s waaay too early, but I wonder if JC Ramirez might be attempting to follow this blueprint. Ramirez is only a few months older, and went from 20+% K rates last year to a K rate under 10%. But he’s seen his GB% jump from 49% to 69% so far. (Porcello was at 65% last year.) Seems like a great way to deal with pitching in Adelanto.

by marc w on Apr 17, 2009 10:39 AM PDT reply actions

Porcello was on a special program

to develop his secondary stuff. Or at least, that’s what’s been reported. So supposedly his stats from last season are reflecting a regime designed to improve his secondary offerings and that explains why this highly touted prospect didn’t rack up the Ks last season.

by philosofool on Apr 17, 2009 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions

Yup.

It’s been reported by quite a few people, so I’m inclined to believe that the K numbers were a product of the program. Goldstein wrote that he talked to scouts who said Porcello still had knockout stuff that he could use when he needed to. They said he was essentially “playing with hitters” in the FSL.

I’m really excited to see him pitch.

by Teej on Apr 17, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions

Except he's basically been the same guy in the majors.

His first start looked like the exact same gameplan. GB rate over 70%, K rate safely under 20% (though a tad higher than his rate last year).

by marc w on Apr 17, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions

Maybe just playing it safe in his first start?

I don’t know.

by Teej on Apr 17, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions

You can't tell anything from one game

by philosofool on Apr 17, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm not

I’m just suspicious of excuses/explanations from teams. Maybe he threw 65% GBs and didn’t strike out so many because that’s the kind of pitcher he is. There’s nothing wrong with it.
At this point, I’m thinking the guy is a lot more like Chien-Ming Wang than…oh, Verlander. Again, there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s just that to think that his entire pro career is just a facade, and that any day now he’s going to get hitters out in a totally new way strikes me as odd. Not racking up Ks isn’t saying he’s a bad prospect… he just may not rack up tons and tons of K’s. Especially not if he continues throwing 91, which is more current CM Wang than the touching 96 Wang of a few years ago.

by marc w on Apr 17, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Good point

It certainly would be unusual for a guy to keep his best stuff hidden. On the other hand, scouts seem to think his stuff is for real. Since you don’t usually find a scout excited about a guy who’s the next Fausto Carmona, I figure they think he can miss bats. He’s only done it 3 times (yes, in 89 pitches, he recorded just three swinging strikes) in the majors.

Another point on the kid’s behalf: he’s never pitched above A ball before.

But yeah, there’s something a little fishy around stories of a kid who supposedly has great stuff but is saving it for the real hitters.

I’m excited to see him pitch, and I’d even like to see him be good, so long as we still win.

by philosofool on Apr 17, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd give Porcello better than "average" for command

He walked just one batter of 24 in his MLB debut, threw 57 strikes to just 32 balls. That ratio of balls to strikes is about where Silva was last year. Say what you want about Silva, he doesn’t have a control problem.

by philosofool on Apr 17, 2009 10:40 AM PDT reply actions

64% strikes is dead on average.

by Matthew on Apr 17, 2009 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions

4.16% BB is dead on.

Are you actually arguing that his control is just average or are you simply pointing out that his ratio of strikes to balls is average?

by philosofool on Apr 17, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Wouldn't an average strike to ball ratio lead one to believe a pitcher has average command?

And if a pitcher has an average strike to ball ratio, wouldn’t one think an average BB rate would follow? I haven’t done any research, but I’ll bet those two metrics are related and am more inclined to believe his BB% is due to regress toward the mean.

by Jed MC on Apr 17, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions

There's no real difference between the two

by Graham MacAree on Apr 17, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions

I thought it was obvious.

Porcello has just one start under his belt and he showed average command

by Matthew on Apr 17, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions

regimen, not regime

It was not a matter of kingly right but a systematic plan.

by philosofool on Apr 17, 2009 10:44 AM PDT reply actions

I'm a big fan of the Tricerahops...is it on tap anywhere locally (Seattle)?

I'd rather know a little about a lot than a lot about a little

by Sportszilla on Apr 17, 2009 11:03 AM PDT reply actions

I've seen it at Uber and Collins.

Though obviously those rotate quite frequently. I believe I’ve seen it on the rotates at Taphouse as well.

by Matthew on Apr 17, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, I've seen it at the Taphouse every now and then

I'd rather know a little about a lot than a lot about a little

by Sportszilla on Apr 17, 2009 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions

Haven't seen it on tap

But I got a bottle of it from 99 Bottles in Federal Way and was quite pleased with it.

I'm more like I am now than I've ever been.

by ralphie81 on Apr 17, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Tricerahops is a favorite of mine too.

So yummy and so very potent.
Ninkasi also makes a Total Domination regular IPA that is quite nice when you want something a little lighter.

I think the whole plate discipline/patience thing is going to be this team’s most crucial aspect for repeatable offensive success. We aren’t exactly a slugging lineup that’s going to get lots of 3-run homers and 5 run innings.

Let's not suck!

by Big Jared on Apr 17, 2009 11:38 AM PDT reply actions