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Around SBN: Devils Beat Rangers, Head To Stanley Cup Finals

We're 5-2

5-2! Without being close to full strength. Mind you, nobody's really at full strength right now, but it's something to put up that kind of week when you're short your best position player and your closer's just getting stretched out. Forget the blown save. I know we could be 6-1, but that shit happens. What matters is that, for the most part, the M's have played really solid, really sound, really effective baseball, all without their most identifiable player. A pessimist would look at Chavez and Balentien's numbers and say that Ichiro isn't going to make the team play any better than it has when he comes back, but then we've already got five wins that no one can take away, and it's nice to know that this is a roster capable of coming together in the face of mad adversity. And besides, when you're 5-2 with the best run prevention in the AL, it's not so much about improving as sustaining.

It's funny the way this weekend worked out. RRS needed picking up, so the offense and the bullpen came through. Felix needed picking up, so the offense and the bullpen came through. Then the offense needed picking up, so Bedard came through. It's one of those weekends that tempts you to declare that this team is greater than the sum of its parts, that it just meshes in a way that makes it seem special, and though I don't tend to buy into that kind of stuff, it's not like the evident truth is any less flattering - this team is capable in all facets, such that it doesn't have to rely on any particular strength to shoulder the load. Yes, run prevention is going to be key, but giving up a couple runs isn't going to be a crippler. Not anymore.

Unlike last season, Lowe says his fellow pitchers also believe they can give up some runs without it resulting in an automatic loss.

"They don't stop,'' he said of the hitters. "We got that feeling down there (in the bullpen) just watching it. We were down two in the eighth and we had confidence they were going to come around."

It's early. The six divisions in baseball are currently led by us, the Marlins, the Padres, the Blue Jays, the Cardinals, and the Tigers. Shit's going to change, and it's going to change an awful lot. But realistically speaking, I don't know that this team could've started out much better. I was afraid that I'd have to force a little enthusiasm at the home opener on Tuesday, but after this week - and, most notably, after today - that's no longer a worry. Sweep me up, Mariners. I think I'm ready for you.

  • Erik Bedard: 187 pitches, 23 swinging strikes. That's 12.2% over two starts, compared to 11.2% in his big 2007 with Baltimore and 8.9% in 2008. He didn't miss double-digit bats in back-to-back games all last season. Throw in a 67% strike rate and that's all the convincing I need - the man is back. Erik Bedard looks like an ace-level pitcher again, and until/unless his body stops cooperating, we're going to be in for a treat.

  • David Aardsma hasn't figured out the strike zone yet

  • Neither has RRS

  • Neither has our offense

  • The two groundballs Felix got on Saturday were the fewest he's ever recorded in a start. The twelve fly balls Felix got on Saturday tied for the most he's ever recorded in a start. As an act of mental preservation I'm going to blame his ankle, which he says was still bothering him a little bit.

  • Endy Chavez is batting .379. It's obviously not going to stay anywhere close to that high for the rest of the year, but after an offseason of widespread discomfort over having him in the lineup, how badly did he need that kind of week?

  • Jakubauskas' curve has an unthinkable amount of break to it, but he can't control it for beans. Kelley's slider, meanwhile, has less movement, but seems like way more of a strength. The key for Kelley is going to be flashing something he can use against lefties; he threw 16 pitches against them the other day and stuck with his fastball and slider.

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Luck or not, this is an awesome way to start the season

And it doesn’t take a whole lot of luck to change the expected outcome of this division.

Endy is going to start hitting like shit again, and we’re not going to bring in nearly this percentage of our baserunners, but it’s still really fun to watch this team play, especially the new guys like Gutierrez and Branyan who have looked nothing shy of exactly what we thought we were getting or better.

I still kind of want to be mad at the management for the way they’ve handled the farm system, honestly I think Z has given up on a number of very important pieces of our future way, way too early. But even though it’s only been 7 games I don’t think there’s any denying that the moves they’ve made with the major league roster have worked out pretty swimmingly so far.

by OlSalty on Apr 12, 2009 10:00 PM PDT reply actions  

We can only hope Zduriencik will renege on his stance with Aumont

But there’s no reason to let that bother us while we’re 5-2!

5-2!

by cwel87 on Apr 12, 2009 10:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yea, 5-2. It's pretty early.

But how telling is it that leading the division by 1.5 games is the largest we’ve had since 2003?

……..2003.

And since then the latest we’ve led the division was on 4/17/2007 after 9 games. We’ve played 7 so far.

The first week was basically a feeling-out process for Wakamatsu. I’m sure being that he’s an analytical type he could’ve rolled out the most statistically optimal lineup for the first week. Instead he decided to play around with his options to see what he has available and it’s been fascinating to watch.

How bout Wak trying to create a ‘Willie Bloomquist’ out of Ronny Cedeno. We know he has infield experience but outfield? He’s whipped up a SSS UZR of +0.7 in LF. Griffey in the lineup with a lefty on the mound and manages to hit a homerun one days and draw three walks in another. Sweeney getting key hits off right-handed pitching.

I give Wakamatsu credit for having the balls to experiment with the team to the extent that he has. I would’ve been interested in how things played out even if they started 2-5. But with a 5-2 start it’s interesting AND it’s resulted in wins I’m hooked.

by ThundaPC on Apr 12, 2009 10:46 PM PDT reply actions  

I don't like the Bloomquist comparison to Cedeno.

We don’t want another Bloomquist. We need a guy who can give us above-average defense and offense while playing a different position everyday. Bloomquist was a late defensive substitution and pinch runner at best— he was never everyday material. Cedeno gives us so much more than that. To me, he is like the new Mark McLemore.

by Wilder. on Apr 12, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yea, probably not the best comparision.

What I was going for was ‘Bloomquist’ meaning guy who can play a lot of positions. Only in this case he’s much more serviceable.

by ThundaPC on Apr 12, 2009 11:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

I gotcha but perhaps a more apt comparison would be Mark McLamore

Even then I think that does a bit of disservice to Cedeños infield defense. But it sounds a lot better than bringing up WFB.

"I call the big one Bitey."-Homer J. Simpson

by Willie Mays Haze on Apr 13, 2009 12:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Great start to the season, great road sweep within the division.

This upcoming series against the Angels is going to be the big test. We have the back of our rotation pitching against a lineup that has murdered Mariners pitching the last few seasons. These division games count double in my mind. We guarantee a win and loss for both teams. In other words, we may win on any given night, but we have no control on how the Royals (or any other team) do against the Angels. These are the games when we win, the Angels take the loss (no need to look at the out-of-town scoreboard).

Another big thing worth mentioning about this young season is the length of the games. I think we’ve had one game go for longer than three hours; and it was only a few minutes over. The more games we keep to a minimum amount of time, the fresher our players will be as the season progresses. This could prove to be a huge advantage going into the last two months of the season.

by Wilder. on Apr 12, 2009 10:52 PM PDT reply actions  

Something feels off about Aardsma throwing nothing but fastballs to Cust in the 9th.

Does he not feel comfortable enough with the slider to throw it in that situation? Or did the M’s know something about Cust that we don’t? Sure, he managed to get out of it, but I can’t imagine that throwing 9 fastballs in a row is a recipe for success.

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Apr 12, 2009 11:16 PM PDT reply actions  

That came up on Baker's blog
“He’s a good hitter, but right there I could tell that he was behind it and he wasn’t catching up to it,‘’ Aardsma said. "That’s one philosophy I’ve always had. No matter who it is at the plate, if they’re not catching up to it, why change? If I’m throwing sliders and it’s working, why throw a fastball? Why throw anything else? And right there,(catcher) Rob (Johnson) came out and said ’It’s coming in real good, keep bringing it and let’s see what happens from there.‘’’

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 12, 2009 11:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting.

I didn’t watch the game today (Vegas to SoCal traffic is stellar!), but I’ve always thought of Cust as someone can hit only fastballs.

by Teej on Apr 12, 2009 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Aardsma was bringing it at 96-97 consistently on Oakland's gun (which we've been speculating to be at least 1-2 mph slow all weekend)

he didn’t look very good against the first four or five Aardsma threw him, though he did end up hitting a rope to Cedeno to end it

by seattlebruin on Apr 12, 2009 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

I thought so too

I could swear I saw the gun read 97, I was pretty surprised and just assumed it was reading fast.

by Snuffleupagus on Apr 13, 2009 5:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

The A's feed

definitely had him hitting 97 fairly consistently.

by sammy on Apr 13, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

I almost thought a big fly/gapper was inevitable

Cust was barely behind and I would expect a big-leaguer, especially one that has proven to only hit the fastball, to be able to make the adjustment and give one a ride.

But oh well, he didn’t. GO M’S!!!!!

by masonize on Apr 13, 2009 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe I'd feel different about it had I seen it live.

That’s not a terrible philosophy to have in lower levels of baseball, but it just seems like major league hitters (especially good major league hitters like Cust) would be able to catch up to that kind of heat.

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Apr 12, 2009 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

I could see it being more of a problem if he couldn't locate his fastball.

Aardsma looked like he was hitting his spots against Cust— lots of high, outside heat. But it is worth mentioning Cust rocked the last fastball, it just went straight into Cedeno’s glove. Aardsma got away with one there.

by Wilder. on Apr 12, 2009 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is a great philosophy for a relief pitcher.

It’s not like you need to work 2-4 pitches to keep a lineup guessing for 6 innings like a starter does. If you have something working, you only need it for 3 outs.

by Wilder. on Apr 12, 2009 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Perhaps I am mistaken

But I have thought that the more times a hitter sees a pitch, the better he is able to recognize it…and if he sees a pitch many times in a row can start to get a sense of the speed and spin and make the correct adjustments. But its also possible Cust may never be able to catch up to Aardsma’s fastball, for whatever reason, I suppose.

by Gihyou on Apr 12, 2009 11:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I'm not saying I support his thinking

It seems silly to me. But there you go. His words.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 13, 2009 12:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

He did catch up to it.

He hit a wicked liner to left. Aardsma was just lucky.

by Rollo Tomasi on Apr 13, 2009 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

It was a wicked liner that was fair by about 20 feet

A guy that gets the same shift as Jason Giambi could barely hit the fastball fair. He made good contact, but technically Aardsma was correct in thinking he couldn’t quite catch up to it

by Malcontent1 on Apr 13, 2009 12:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

I guess I kind of agree with what he's saying, but it doesn't really jive with what actually happened

Because after every fastball they see they’re going to get the timing down more and more and eventually they’re going to make good contact.

by OlSalty on Apr 12, 2009 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm OK with this strategy

Cust looked bad on most of the fouls, and I was surprised Aardsma didn’t generate a swinging strike three a bit earlier

by seattlebruin on Apr 12, 2009 11:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

If Aardsma hadn't said it himself, I would have.

Watching it on TV, it was pretty clear that Cust was well behind the fastball. I don’t 100% agree with throwing him nothing but it, but once it got to 2-2, I really doubt he wanted to risk throwing an offspeed pitch and losing the groove on the fastball.

And no, Cust didn’t catch up to it. That’s a silly thing to say people, he hit it the other way. That’s the definition of being late on a pitch.

by Matthew on Apr 13, 2009 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes.

I translated Rob Johnson saying “It’s coming in real good, keep bringing it” as, “You’re throwing the heater for strikes, and you just walked a guy, so let’s not fuck around with you trying to locate something off-speed.” Which is pretty decent logic I guess, considering the control tendencies of the M’s relief staff.

 As for the pitch Cust did hit being “crushed”, well, he hit it right where the defensive shift was designed for him to hit it.

by lemonverbena on Apr 13, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

So this has been neat so far.

You can't hide from the omnipresent eye.

by Goose on Apr 13, 2009 12:55 AM PDT reply actions  

Really? We're still last in plate discipline?

I dunno, this may seem dumb, but it’s sure felt like we’ve been a lot more patient this year than last. Weird.

by SethGrandpa on Apr 13, 2009 1:15 AM PDT reply actions  

We still have the Old Guard to hack away.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Apr 13, 2009 5:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

This just goes to show how accustomed we were to the free-swinging Mariners.

We see an improvement and yet we still have a long way to go from where we came.

by Wilder. on Apr 13, 2009 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

And you know that

Griffey will be in the field for the home opener.

by marinerdan on Apr 13, 2009 6:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

I know it

And loathe it. It’s always good to put your worst foot forward for the first home game. I know! Let’s put Griffey in Center for old time’s sake too!

BTW — is there any indication they’ll be skipping a pitcher due to the off day? I’m going on Sunday as well and really don’t need to see two Silva outings in a row.

by short on Apr 13, 2009 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

I doubt it

With Felix’s bad ankle, they’d probably rather give him the extra day, plus, part of RRS’s struggles the other day was attributed to an extended layoff, so I’m sure they’d like to get him out there again on schedule.

Also, Griffey will probably be in Right, so it shouldn’t actually be too bad

by Malcontent1 on Apr 13, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not sure
absorbing or controlling possession of the mind by any interest or pursuit; lively interest

Oh, I’ll have interest.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 13, 2009 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm just happy they're coming out of the gates playing well and don't need two months

to start stringing together wins. The first and last months of the season are the most important in my mind since you play your division the most in that time. If they get lucky wins then great. Look where that has gotten the Angels the last couple of years – they’ve been pretty much a .500 team except for in intradivisional play.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 13, 2009 6:26 AM PDT reply actions  

When the lefties Jimenez or Johnson are healthy

My guess is Kelley goes? Would Jaku be next in the pecking order to go to Tacoma?

by Tony S on Apr 13, 2009 6:55 AM PDT reply actions  

Would it be Kelley?

He’s pitched very well. Jaku has also pitched well. I guess it’s going to be somebody who doesn’t deserve to be sent down? The bullpen has pitched well except for Morrow’s first game.

by drm1125 on Apr 13, 2009 8:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Pretty sure Tui gets sent down

He’s the only position player that hasn’t seen the field thus far, and his callup was more to reward him for trying hard than because they actually wanted him to contribute right now. I doubt they will carry fewer than 12 pitchers until guys get more stretched out anyhow, at which point my guess is they call up Clement to rotate him through catcher/DH. My hope is Jaku gets sent down to continue starting because god knows we need some RH starting depth now and with that curve and changeup he strikes me as being as good a backup as any we’ve got.

Also, if they’re smart enough to know that same-handed pitching matchups aren’t all that important they probably also realize that Jimenez is not much of a LOOGY, being primarily a changeup kinda guy. I expect Johnson up here as soon as he’s up to strength.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 13, 2009 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

Too early to tell.

There’s no clear hierarchy in the pen.

by Matthew on Apr 13, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

They're all equally likely to cause us a heart attack =(

I guess this is what happens when your bullpen is full of power arms who have no idea where the ball is going

by seattlebruin on Apr 13, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Jeff - how many offspeed pitches did Jakubauskas throw?

Jaku seems to throw the curve a maximum of once per batter just to show the hitter he doesn’t always throw fastballs.
Still, it seems like he’s relying on his FB to an almost Silvan level – how many/what percentage of offspeed pitches did he throw in Oak? USE the change, damn it!

by marc w on Apr 13, 2009 8:38 AM PDT reply actions  

You're such a Jakujunkie

40 pitches, 30 fastballs (89mph), 3 changes (79mph), 7 curves (76mph).

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 13, 2009 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

You'll be happy to note that M's pitchers still use the FB more than anyone else in the league

at 68%. I suspect this is mostly thanks to Silva’s start and Aardsma and Morrow’s relief outings. Also, I guess fangraphs classifies some of Washburn’s pitches as fastballs which, let’s face it, they aren’t.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 13, 2009 9:25 AM PDT reply actions  

He's actually slightly down from last year

(though above the heady days of 06 and 07).
The bullpen relies on fastballs to an almost ridiculous degree, and Batista went from a 45% FB guy to like 70% or something when he moved to the ‘pen.
Seems like it’s something Wetteland and/or Adair is really emphasizing.

by marc w on Apr 14, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

The Tigers are leading the AL Central?

They opened the season losing 3 of 4 to Toronto. Wow, that division’s already looking mediocre.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Apr 13, 2009 9:30 AM PDT reply actions  

Cleveland has been the big surprise.

But it is awesome to see the Royals are not the juggernaut all the “experts” thought they would be. I guess .500 is an improvement, though (and of course it’s still early in the season).

by Wilder. on Apr 13, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Bedard

For a moment I forgot about the name Adam Jones.

Then I saw him on Baseball Tonight gunning out a guy at the plate trying to score on a single… from third base.

Fuck.

by zeeehjee on Apr 13, 2009 9:43 AM PDT reply actions  

Erik Bedard has already been worth a half-win above average.

In two starts, one of which he only went five innings.

I like the healthy version of Erik Bedard.

by seattlebruin on Apr 13, 2009 10:07 AM PDT reply actions  

Also, .7 WAR.

He has been “worth” 3.2 million already. That’s unfathomable.

by abender20 on Apr 13, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

?

Saying he’s already worth half a win when that number is based on a rate stat not a counting stat? It’s entirely possible that after his next start Bedard’s value drops back to 0.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 13, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

WAR is a counting stat

It’s rate performance multiplied by number of innings pitched. Just like wRAA is wOBA * PA. There’s no difference.

Seriously, this is a pretty baffling argument you’re having.

by davidcameron on Apr 13, 2009 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

It's a counting stat

but it’s a counting stat that can go in both directions, which makes it different than something like strikeouts or RBI. I think that’s what he’s getting at.

by Jeff Sullivan on Apr 13, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, technically it's possible.

But man he’d have to pitch like shit for that to happen. Especially to that degree.

by Terminator_X on Apr 14, 2009 2:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Using StatCorner

and yeah, SSS, but yesterday was everything we expected of Bedard when we traded for him and then some

by seattlebruin on Apr 13, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Word.

I think at this point you can only use counting stats for value assesment – wRAA and total UZR. Statcorner is sweet because they have a regression model that accounts for playing time early on. I think by June we can stop looking at tRA* and start paying attention to tRA/FIP.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Apr 13, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

I loved this weekend.

However, I spent most of last evening and this morning reminding myself these guys are still Mariners. Which means, this feeling will not continue.

When Sweeny, Chavez, et al regress it will be sad.

Also Silva, Washburn and RR-S are pitching the next three games.

I am no longer in Spokane, but I think I'll keep the name anyway.

by InSpokane on Apr 13, 2009 10:23 AM PDT reply actions  

Sweeney regress?

Maybe for the better because he hasn’t been stellar whatsoever. The man is slow on the bases, though, and that is definitely not coming back.

by Wilder. on Apr 13, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Rob Johnson's the real regression candidate

We’ll have to see how long he can keep up his scoreless innings streak – 18 innings caught, 0 runs allowed.

by marc w on Apr 13, 2009 10:29 AM PDT reply actions  

CERA of 0.00!

He’s the best!

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 13, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

I used to love CERA because I being uniformed about the uselessness

of it all, liked to use it to shut up Dan Wilson fans. Ben Davis CERA was better at one point, and I loved that.

by marinerdan on Apr 13, 2009 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

I just lost interest

after Nick and Nora’s Infinite Playlist.

by johnbai on Apr 13, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions   4 recs

Well done.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Apr 13, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is fantastic

"The dark secret of LL is that it only exists so I can one day moderate Graham" ---Robert

by .Taylor on Apr 13, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

speaking of "freeing" players

I read yesterday that it only costs $10 for a message on the Cheney Stadium board. Has anyone ever thought of putting “free Jeff Clement” up there? I wonder if they would do it…

by Snowman1025 on Apr 13, 2009 12:13 PM PDT reply actions  

I'll ask Corkum on Friday.

I can’t wait to see the new Cheney Stadium board. BIG TIME improvement over the scoreboard they had before.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Apr 13, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's not totally true

When Batista has been an effective pitcher in the past it has been because he has limited walks and by limit walks I mean BB/9~3ish. He isn’t a good pitcher and I’m not gonna be cheering for him because we have guys in AAA who are just as good but at least when he is pitching in relief he can get some groundballs and eat up some innings.

Its actually pretty interesting looking at fangraphs’ pitch type records for Batista. It looks like he has slowly phased out his slider and now basically is just throwing fastballs and variations of a fastball with a curve and maybe a change in there every once in a while.

Interestingly this year hitters have swung at around 50% of his pitches and made contact on every one of them.

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 14, 2009 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Congrats Mariner fans

Enjoy the wins, guys. There is a lot of joy in Toronto over their hot start too. It’s nice to see teams not go wire to wire.

by brent in Korea on Apr 13, 2009 9:52 PM PDT reply actions  

Well.

I feel pretty good about this week, even though I tend to think this team is going to have issues scoring runs and the occasional bullpen meltdown/back-end starter getting cuffed around by a good lineup.

They have a considerably better shot at being on the high end of my 75-85 win range I penciled them in for the longer they stay in contention, though, and 85 wins could easily take this division. Basically, this team reminds me of a typical Billy Beane team of the mid-00’s, with a little less offense, which isn’t surprising, since GMZ took a fairly similar approach to offseason roster construction (load up on cheap defense and underrated players).

by eponymous_coward on Apr 14, 2009 1:29 PM PDT reply actions  

Back then

wasn’t Beane saying that defense was irrelevant?

by Rollo Tomasi on Apr 15, 2009 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not irrelevant

impossible to quantify and thus no way to understand if it was over or under valued (and he believed it was overvalued). Now that we have UZR, +/-, PMR, etc, we can correctly quantify and thus value defense, which Beane has done the last few years in Oakland

by seattlebruin on Apr 15, 2009 8:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think the idea was that defense was being overvalued

and he could stretch his dollar the furthest with Matt Stairs types.

by JI on Apr 15, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

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