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Around SBN: Post-UNC Thoughts

A Brief Look At Phillippe Aumont

So as you're probably aware of by now, Phillippe Aumont made an appearance out of the bullpen in last Saturday's WBC tilt between Canada and the USA. And for a guy who just turned 20 in January facing some of the best players in baseball, I'd say the results were pretty good. Aumont loaded the bases and had shaky command over 25 pitches, but he got out of the inning unscathed, striking out both Kevin Youkilis and Curtis Granderson to escape the jam. It was vaguely reminiscent of Mark Lowe's big league debut, the only big difference being that Aumont didn't come in with little benefits like playing experience or time above A-ball. I imagine he was probably pleased.

In case you missed Aumont's inning, here are clips of what I consider to be his best fastball and best curveball from the game:

Aumontfa_medium

Aumontcu_medium

In the first clip, you see Aumont blow a tailing heater by Chipper Jones. The movement on that pitch is absolutely mind-blowing, and for the batter, it's kind of like facing a 94mph screwball. Good luck.

Meanwhile, the second clip shows David Wright flailing after an 81mph curve with more than a foot of break. Already a dangerous pitch, putting it in that particular location makes it utterly unhittable. Whether Aumont meant to put it there or not is up to you to decide, but the results are sexy. It's like a Morrow curve, only with some horizontal movement thrown in for good measure.

One inning, 25 pitches, eight swinging strikes, and a 95mph average fastball. Command issues or not, it's hard to watch that inning and not come away excited. Your typical 20 year old prospect isn't able to give that much trouble to 14 combined ASG appearances.

Being that this was only one inning of work, we can't expect that Aumont's fastball will stay that high as a starter. And make no mistake, he still has lots and lots of work to do. His location is all over the place, he doesn't yet have a great, consistent feel for his curve, and he needs to develop another pitch to offer to lefties. But this is a pretty good example of why age and level aren't nearly as important for pitching prospects as they are for hitting prospects. Just 20, with a playing age of something like, I dunno, 6, Aumont already has two pitches that, when they're working, are above-average by big league standards. His fastball has crazy movement and his breaking ball falls off the table. Those are weapons, and repertoires don't change by level; stuff is stuff, and a 95mph fastball is the same to Albert Pujols as it is to Matt Mangini. If June rolled around and Aumont suddenly got control of a changeup, he could probably come up to Seattle and have some success.

You can't really say that for hitters. Pitching prospects learn something new at each level, but the biggest factor in pitcher success is stuff, and stuff - or at least throwing ability - doesn't get much better with age or experience. It's like defense. You peak when you're young and gradually get worse. With hitting prospects, though, they have to both learn and grow into their bodies, and as such age and level are way bigger deals. An 18 year old with good power in A-ball will be more valuable than a 25 year old with good power in AAA, but at the same time that 18 year old with good power probably won't be able to survive the jump from A-ball to the Majors, because he'd be going up against the best and smartest pitchers in the world with underdeveloped physical and mental skills. He might be able to identify and destroy changeups from teenagers, but things are a little different in the bigs. So they have to take it slower. There are just too many things a hitter picks up in AA and AAA and with age for one to expect a hitter to have immediate success after skipping them. I hope I'm explaining this well.

Physically, hitters develop into the middle of their careers, while pitchers are ready at the beginning. And talent-wise, a hitter's only as good as the pitches he's faced, while a pitcher's only as good as the pitches he throws. That's the best quick summation I can give. So while you have to take a lot into consideration when deciding whether or not a hitter is ready for the Majors, it's much easier for a pitcher: either he throws ML-caliber stuff or he doesn't. It doesn't matter where he is or who he's facing. Whether he be a 19 year old throwing 95 in rookie ball with two other good pitches or a 32 year old throwing the same stuff in AAA, then - provided they're both given decent scouting reports - they're both ready to succeed in the big leagues. Once you have the stuff, and you know where it's going most of the time, then you're just about as ready as you'll ever be to face the ultimate challenge.

Phillippe Aumont has a long way to go before he's ready to pitch in Seattle. But the difference between his development and, say, Carlos Triunfel's is that, while they both have a lot of ground to make up, Aumont is legitimately capable of making it up in a hurry. While we have no idea when, or even if he'll ever get himself completely straightened out, it's the potential sudden explosiveness that makes him and other pitching prospects so damn exciting. Volatile unpredictability is the spice of life.

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I think the last time I was this excited for an M's prospect was Felix.

That inning was just fucking nuts. I think I’ll have to go watch it again.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 9, 2009 9:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Unless you are a “typical” left hander. You are ready for prime time the second you hit you’re 30th birthday!

by brent in Korea on Mar 9, 2009 9:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The movement on that fastball makes it look like a whiffleball pitch

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Mar 9, 2009 9:44 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

or a change...

I looked at the video before reading anything and I was thinking he had some nice movement on his change. Slow motion can be deceiving, that is crazy movement on his fastball.

by mymrbig on Mar 10, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

God, I remember Lowe's debut

Was one of the only games I went to that year. Terrible game, nothing good about it until he showed up. After he loaded the bases we all groaned, but when he got out of it, the entire stadium rose up and cheered for him. That night made me a Lowe fan for life.

by Ezzra on Mar 9, 2009 9:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That always struck me as weird

Mark Lowe got a rousing ovation. Who the fuck was Mark Lowe?

by Jeff on Mar 9, 2009 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nobody at all. But that night sucked and we needed something to cheer about.

And getting out of a bases loaded jam (though it was his fault) in his major league debut was pretty impressive. After he gave out a single, double, and HBP, he roared back with an 8 pitch full count K, managed to throw out a runner at home, then struck out Magglio (the 2, 3, and 4 hitters).

Honestly, I really have no idea why it was so epic to those of us who cheered for him. All I know is I haven’t seen a half inning that got me more emotional in the last 5 years of Mariners. Maybe you had to be there.

by Ezzra on Mar 9, 2009 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I did, and loved every minute of those innings

But everybody expected Putz to succeed. This was just some guy in his major league debut down 6 runs- a clear underdog against the likes of Pudge and Magglio. And you gotta root for the underdog.

by Ezzra on Mar 9, 2009 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I mean, I get it

it’s just such a weird situation in retrospect. For all we knew, it was just some nobody reliever.

by Jeff on Mar 9, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Except for those of us watching on TV.

I think we fell in love with his stuff pretty quickly. Oh, that changeup.

by Matthew on Mar 9, 2009 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was at the game when Bryan Lahair made his ML debut.

Even he got about a 5 minute standing ovation. I think everyone was just so happy to see Sexson gone and an have alternative to Ears.

by Vatinius on Mar 10, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think I might have been at that game.

I know I went to the game on July 4th and then another game later that week. Why did I throw out my 2006 ticket stubs? Arg.

by appleshampoo on Mar 10, 2009 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh god I'm loving Aumont even more...
The Mariners lost 101 games last season, but in Félix Hernández, Brandon Morrow and Aumont, they have three potential aces, all younger than 25. Aumont says he is eager to join the others in the majors.

"I dream about it every day," he said. "I know Félix was there when he was really young and he was able to do it. Brandon got a jump, and he went straight to the big leagues. I look at those guys, at their work ethic and how they do it, and I want to be part of that group as early as possible."

You’re not the only one dreaming…

Oh man this article makes the NY Times looks like the NY Post or the Post like the Times… I forget which one is the good one.

You got slurved bitch.

by Slurvey on Mar 9, 2009 10:01 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

But he's French. He'll be the downfall of this team.

/marinator

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Mar 10, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

French Canadian

double negative is a positive!

by seattlebruin on Mar 10, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doesn't matter.

/marinator

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Mar 10, 2009 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I miss marinator

I would love to see a thread with him, butthol, manzell, F’nA’ and weaton4life

by seattlebruin on Mar 10, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Manzell? Never heard of that guy.

Why would I watch Transformers when I can play with them at my house?

by Taylor H on Mar 11, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great writeup Jeff..

His stuff is ridiculous. You could put any guy in the majors in the box against him right now, and I’d feel there would be a good shot that he’d strike that guy out. Of course the consistency to get man after man out is what he needs. But from a stuff perspective, there isn’t a major leaguer in the game right now that would enjoy stepping into the box against him.

by Rudy4three on Mar 9, 2009 10:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hooray!

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Mar 9, 2009 10:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah it's hard to watch that inning...

especially when ESPN skips it on the replay to get to something more exciting, apparently.

by PascoJoe on Mar 9, 2009 10:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Another look at Aumont's mechanics

One thing I notice with his mechanics is his glove side stability. If you look at how his glove falls off behind is left hip as he rotates to release, it indicates that he’s pulling off of his target line a bit more than he should. This is the same kind of “front side fly” that Wash has (look at a still frame of him at release), Ramon Martinez did, and so did Steve Avery. I’m sure there’s dozens more that do it, but those 3 guys jump out at me now.

Martinez and Avery both broke down often in and never made good on a promising career. In my opinion, a strong, stable front side is more important to the long term health than whether someone is throwing overhand, 3/4, low 3/4 or side arm. Don Drysdale, Walter Johnson, Dennis Eckersly, Randy Johnson, and even Sabathia all throw at a similar angle as Aumont, so the angle doesn’t worry me as long as it’s repeatable and he can still get on top of the fastball (downward, late movement) and breaking ball (getting the ball down and in long the lefty.)

Just my $.02 so take it for what it’s worth

by codered on Mar 10, 2009 7:35 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Question...

I notice his leg “kick” on his follow through is very different on each pitch (it goes higher on the curve). Does that matter it terms of tipping pitches, or is it too late in the motion for the hitter to notice?

by speedomike on Mar 10, 2009 8:31 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't think it's too late, but in this case

it seems more a matter of the situation. In the ‘low kick’ gif, there are runners on 1st and 2nd. In the ‘high kick,’ the bases are loaded. I think the former is his attempt to get the ball to the plate a little quicker.

by marc w on Mar 10, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

After looking at the video again

it appears to be a FA/CU difference, rather than a base situation difference. I still don’t know how important it is, though.

His leg doesn’t really look that different until the ball has almost arrived, by which point the hitter has already seen the pitch and probably figured out what it is. Or, if he hasn’t, it’s too late to do anything about it.

by Jeff on Mar 10, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whoops a doodle

I thought we were talking about his leg kick pre-delivery. A leg kick on follow through is, of course, WAAAYY too late.

Even the pre-delivery kick doesn’t look too different now that I look at it more closely. He’s not tipping his pitches.

by marc w on Mar 10, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does he need a change?

AJ Burnett only has two pitches (fastball, curve), and he’s pretty successful.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Mar 10, 2009 9:49 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd say Burnett is an exception

The majority of successful starting pitchers need three pitches. Aumont might be a special case if his fastball and curve turn out that good, but I think it’s more likely that he’ll need to throw a change at least a little bit.

by Jeff on Mar 10, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Erik Bedard as well

essentially you need a spectacular offspeed pitch and a ton of deception in your delivery to be successful with only two pitches

by seattlebruin on Mar 10, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty much

and it’s worth pointing out that both Bedard and Burnett do throw a change (and Bedard a cutter as well) at least a little bit of the time.

Aumont’s arm slot also leads me to wonder how much success he could have against lefties if he weren’t to develop a third pitch.

by Jeff on Mar 10, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

With a fastball tailing like his does, he might have a shot

because what you’re looking for is something moving away from an opposite handed batter anyway

by seattlebruin on Mar 10, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any ideas why Bedard has thrown his change so much less each of the last four years?

Did his curve just get that much better?

And I think I agree that Aumont needs to learn a third pitch because even if he can’t throw it well, it still adds one more thing a batter has to watch for against him, even if the guy knows never to swing at it.

by seattlebruin on Mar 10, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Couldn't tell you

Has to be a curveball comfort/ability thing.

by Jeff on Mar 10, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He could probably be ok without a change

or even very good with Maddux command. But him being 20 wouldn’t you at least try to teach him a change for a couple of years to see if he takes to it? He’d be a killer even if he remains a little wild.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 10, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Video game knuckle balls are obscene

I think it’s hard to program the physics of one properly.

You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.

by bluemax on Mar 10, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That fastball just broke my zipper

Incredible

I want to poop at your house - Thingray

by tootthekazoo on Mar 10, 2009 10:49 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

I'll start wearing sweat pants then

I want to poop at your house - Thingray

by tootthekazoo on Mar 10, 2009 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

But they provide comfort and flexibility

I want to poop at your house - Thingray

by tootthekazoo on Mar 10, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A completely appropriate name

I would wear grey ones paired with a tan colored duster jacket (think trench coat) if I had reached the “Fuck it, I give up” stage

I want to poop at your house - Thingray

by tootthekazoo on Mar 10, 2009 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I still would use the blanket phrase of "FIIGU" for any use of sweat pants

Lots of interconnecting phases and stages to that, but all of them boil down to sweat pants

I want to poop at your house - Thingray

by tootthekazoo on Mar 10, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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