Miscellaneous Quick Hits

A-Rod getting surgery after all. They're saying 6-9 weeks, but that strikes me as incredibly optimistic and forgetting that he's lost Spring Training. I said that 10 weeks seems reasonable, but that still assumes he clears rehab with no problems.

Jon Lester signed a five year, $30 million extension with a $13 million team option for a sixth year. I believe this would have been Lester's final year of team control, placing him four seasons away from free agency. Looks like without the option that Lester is earning at about a 2.7-win rate. CHONE projects him at 2.5 wins, Marcel at 3.2, tRA* at about 3.4 depending on his IP. Probably a slight win for Boston on value, but it comes with a high variance of risk for both sides.

Scott Baker signed a four year, $15.25 million extension with a $9.25 million team option for a fifth year. Baker is indeed in the final year of team control. Baker projects as a 2.6-3.0 win pitcher going forward by all of CHONE, Marcel and tRA*. In other words, he's about the same mean as Lester but he comes with much less variance in outcomes. He signed over the same time period and for about 80% (if you add in MIN's option) of what Lester got. Win for the Twins.

Vladimir Guerrero is 34, not 33. He's quietly been overpaid the past three seasons (granted, not by much) according to FanGraphs and another year tacked onto his age isn't going to help his already not too robust projections any.

 

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