Miscellaneous Quick Hits

by Matthew on Mar 8, 2009 3:06 PM PDT in Miscellaneous

A-Rod getting surgery after all. They're saying 6-9 weeks, but that strikes me as incredibly optimistic and forgetting that he's lost Spring Training. I said that 10 weeks seems reasonable, but that still assumes he clears rehab with no problems.

Jon Lester signed a five year, $30 million extension with a $13 million team option for a sixth year. I believe this would have been Lester's final year of team control, placing him four seasons away from free agency. Looks like without the option that Lester is earning at about a 2.7-win rate. CHONE projects him at 2.5 wins, Marcel at 3.2, tRA* at about 3.4 depending on his IP. Probably a slight win for Boston on value, but it comes with a high variance of risk for both sides.

Scott Baker signed a four year, $15.25 million extension with a $9.25 million team option for a fifth year. Baker is indeed in the final year of team control. Baker projects as a 2.6-3.0 win pitcher going forward by all of CHONE, Marcel and tRA*. In other words, he's about the same mean as Lester but he comes with much less variance in outcomes. He signed over the same time period and for about 80% (if you add in MIN's option) of what Lester got. Win for the Twins.

Vladimir Guerrero is 34, not 33. He's quietly been overpaid the past three seasons (granted, not by much) according to FanGraphs and another year tacked onto his age isn't going to help his already not too robust projections any.

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Was Vlad's real age recent news?

I must have missed this.

by katal on Mar 8, 2009 3:47 PM PDT reply actions

yeah

they just discovered that’s a year older then previously thought. I chuckled.

"I always think one step ahead, like a carpenter....the builds stairs"

by sergey606 on Mar 8, 2009 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Hahaha

Well no wonder his stats dropped off last year.

by katal on Mar 8, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Apparently he accidently responded to a question with his real age of 34 to a question about health. Ooops.

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Mar 8, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah same here.

by Robert on Mar 8, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions

Does this invalidate the Angels recent division titles.

After all, Vlad cheated.

by JI on Mar 8, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions

How do we know Vlad isn't lying about his fake age?

Maybe he’s really 37 and forgot if he was pretending he was 33 or 34

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by Corco on Mar 8, 2009 4:25 PM PDT reply actions

Any day now M's, with the Felix extension....

by Rudy4three on Mar 8, 2009 4:31 PM PDT reply actions

That would be so wonderful

I want to poop at your house - Thingray

by tootthekazoo on Mar 8, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Preaching to the choir, but now's the time

We have a ton of money coming off the books after this season, and it’s hard to imagine the market ever being more reasonable than it is right now. I’d flip if we signed Felix to a deal similar to Lester’s.

by katal on Mar 8, 2009 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd probably try to get him to sign a 6-8 year deal. Cause if he ever hits the market, somebody will give

him a gigantic deal. If the Mariners plan on keeping him long term and not having a Griffey, Arod, RJ thing happen, they should think about a 7 year, 70 million dollar deal or something like that in my opinion.

by Rudy4three on Mar 8, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions

That's too many years for any pitcher

Five years is a long time to project a pitcher’s performance, even more so a young pitcher with his Verduccian workload.

by philosofool on Mar 9, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions

Also, this may not be very significant but Santana is sitting out practice

and is likely to start the season on the DL. It’s not totally surprising because I’d always suspected that throwing 235 frames’ worth of 96mph heat may be bad for your elbow and now there you have it.

It’s odd to think of the Angels as being a little hard up for pitching but between Santana developing issues and Escobar still being out (I know he’s expected back in May but who has come back from being out for over a year and pitched at 100% right away?). This coupled with Weaver being likely to continue his steady regression and Saunders not really being as good as most people think and suddenly you have a club that’ll be really missing Teixeira’s bat in the middle of the order.

I, for one, am also excited to see how that outfield impacts Jared Weaver’s shiny strand rate.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 8, 2009 7:39 PM PDT reply actions

I assume you mean Ervin in the subject line?

Since Johan has also been batting injury stuff lately, it read a bit ambiguously to me at first.

by Matthew on Mar 8, 2009 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes, my bad.

I thought it might be clear since the Johan thing really seems to be minor (he’s back to bullpen sessions) whereas Ervin has had an MRI that came up with a ligament sprain (the bad one – UCL) and that’s just what Scoscia is telling the press – it may or may not be worse.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 9, 2009 6:13 AM PDT up reply actions