Projections: Ichiro
Upon realizing today that LL/USSM have dropped the community projections, I figured I'd try to take up an abridged version of what they have been doing. It was discontinued because they are busy people and its really just a fun thing and not really anything quantitative.
I also agree it takes way too much time to do it in full justice so I'm going to try an scaled back version that will be easier to keep track of. Instead of asking you to project a ton of categories, I'm gonna make it easy for you. I will put up a poll that will simply ask you how valuable a player will be this year. I'll break it down into increments and you can place your vote.
If you need an idea of how WAR works please go to fangraphs. When projecting value please take into account the player's offensive value, defensive value, position and playing time. I'm assuming most of the readers here have had this mantra beaten into their heads enough but if you need background on it Dave wrote some great "how to" articles that are posted under the glossary at fangraphs.
I will give a simple example of projecting a player. Take Randy Winn for example assuming he plays a full season:
Offensive Value = 0 - 5 runs
Defensive Value = 5 - 15 runs
Replacement Value = 22 runs
Positional Adjustment = -7.5 runs (RF/LF)
Total Value = 27 runs = 2.7 WAR (because 10 runs = 1 WAR)
In a little change from what fangraphs does, we will include SB/CS in the offensive value. It shouldn't make much of a difference but if you think a player is a really good base stealer feel free to add a few fractions of a win on your projection. Keep in mind that even the best base stealers rarely get more than ~0.5 WAR or so for their efforts.
Anyway, on to the poll. I won't discuss my opinions on the players here in an attempt to avoid biasing your vote but feel free to discuss what you think he will do in the upcoming year.
We are starting off with Ichiro because he is awesome and if you are going to start talking about the Mariners, he's the guy you always start with. I'll probably do a new guy every few days and try to cover the main guys on the team.
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23 comments
Comments
.325/.370/.430, +8 in RF
157 GS
Whatever that equals
by JI on Mar 31, 2009 7:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
FanGraphs includes SB/CS
It’s part of our wOBA calculation.
by davidcameron on Mar 31, 2009 7:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Do you guys want me to actually put these up every once in a while and then package them together
or is it just a waste of time?
by Edgar for Pres on Mar 31, 2009 11:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Your Fangraphs link is broken.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Apr 1, 2009 7:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Also, I vote for throwing out stupid votes (like Ichiro below replacement level)
and if someone were to say, vote Yuniesky Betancourt above 6 WAR
by seattlebruin on Apr 1, 2009 9:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ichiro gets hurt at the very beginning of the season,
barely comes back and doesn’t produce for the last few weeks.
It’s not plausible, but still possible. I don’t think it’s bad to take those sorts of things into account when you’re talking WAR or another stat that depends on playing time.
Not saying the person wasn’t just being a dick, as that could easily be the case, just throwing it out there.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
by Faux on Apr 1, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but then he would be 0 WAR assuming that he doesn't entirely blow during the few games he plays
not negative WAR. To be negative, he would have to be awful at the plate and miss a lot of games, or just be ungodly bad at the plate, and neither of these things make any sense to predict
by seattlebruin on Apr 1, 2009 11:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't WAR wins ABOVE replacement?
Replacement Value = 22 runs
What if he only plays 10 games, and has no chance to make 22 runs? Wouldn’t that put him at negative WAR?
Maybe I’m not getting something here.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
by Faux on Apr 1, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, you said exactly what I did.
But what I am saying is just because that is not plausible doesn’t make it out of the realm of possibility.
It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray
by Faux on Apr 1, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That 22 runs would be scaled down to playing time.
To something like 1.36
by Graham on Apr 1, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
600 PA is roughly 20 runs above replacement, correct?
and then it scales linearly?
by seattlebruin on Apr 1, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
4.5-5 WAR is missing as an option
That’s about where I was going to slot him, too.
by Schaefer on Apr 1, 2009 2:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wish I were an optimist.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Apr 1, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hah. That was stupid of me.
I don’t think I can fix it without restarting the poll. For all of you who wanted that, too bad.
by Edgar for Pres on Apr 1, 2009 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was exactly where I was going to vote.
Not joking. But I’ll just drop it down one notch.
by appleshampoo on Apr 3, 2009 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's been consistently around 4 WAR with the bat for his career
And being pretty good with the glove pushes it a bit higher. Doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch.
by Schaefer on Apr 1, 2009 4:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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