My Stance on Morrow
News that comes out of nowhere such as yesterday's revelation on Morrow's future is best reflected on with some time to digest it and process through the initial, often too immediate, emotional reactions. I was ticked off by the story yesterday that Morrow was shifting to the bullpen full time, that he was giving up on the idea of ever being a starting pitcher. Morrow the starter was a big piece toward pushing this team's ceiling upwards and many of us hoped that he would provide a nice middle to upper rotation figure come 2010 and beyond. That hope is no more.
Instead we're left with hoping that Brandon Morrow becomes a lights out closer. And while I certainly think Morrow can be, probably already is, a good reliever, make no mistake, he has to be certifiably lights out to come anywhere near the value that he would have been able to as a starter.
J.J. Putz, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan; those four illustrate what is the best you can hope for from a closer. Those four represented the best of the best over some period of recent time. And that best value comes out to about 2.7 wins. Sure, they can go higher in some years, but they will also go lower. 2.7 wins/year is essentially the multi-year ceiling for closers. If those four couldn't exceed that figure, you are probably delusional to think Morrow can. Relievers just do not throw enough innings.
Jamie Moyer, Paul Maholm, Ted Lilly, Dana Eveland. What do those names mean to you? Those are starting pitchers last year who were worth about 2.7 wins. And that's Morrow's absolute, 100%, best case scenario. A more realistic scenario, and one that is still optimistic, would be to just go by what Morrow himself did in the bullpen last year. You might recall that Morrow was pretty fantastic in relief at the start of the year. He was pumping up the velocity, showed improved command and demonstrated his off speed stuff. He struck out a third of all batters that he faced and over three for every walk allowed. Assuming he maintained those levels while closing and doubled his innings total from the pen in 2009, he would have tallied 2 wins worth of value. Congrats Brandon, you would have been as valuable as Tim Wakefield or Randy Wolf was last year.
I hope this has made my point of how big of a blow to Morrow's value is and why I was so upset at the decision. Now I want to clarify who my anger is directed toward. We at LL have made it a point, especially over the past seasons, of defending players with regards to their health. Notably, we supported Erik Bedard in pulling himself out and we flamed Raul Ibanez for playing through an injury in 2007 that cost him dearly in terms of production. Baseball is, for all intents and purposes, an individual sport supporting a team goal and playing while injured does nothing more than hurt your individual contribution. Baseball isn't football or hockey, where playing injured can help inspire teammates to give more effort. Jose Lopez cannot hit more home runs just because he really wants to live up to Raul Ibanez's display of manliness.
So where does that leave us with Brandon Morrow? The answer to that lies in the answer to the question, "Why is he moving to the bullpen?" If it's because of his diabetes, then fine, I will not hold that against you Brandon. I do firmly believe that a player knows his body and his limitations better than anyone else and I will not stand to pass judgment on it. But if it's because you feel more comfortable (not in a health sense) relieving, or because you like the pressure of closing more, then well, I am disappointed Brandon, because that's dumb. You are costing yourself and you are costing this team.
Which is it then? There seems to be a multitude of answers. I will quote him directly, by way of local writers. Shannon Drayer seems to feel the diabetes was the major driving force:
"It just came down in my mind that I am more suited to pitch on a day to day basis rather than every five days throwing 100 pitches."
He continued by explaining what he went through last year.
"Everything I think is easier on me on the day to day. Starting I have had problems with low blood sugar, trying to get it perfect before the game or even if I try to be a little high I fall down in warmups and it was just a catch up game from then on. Out of the bullpen we have a pre game meal and I have 5,6,7, innings for it to level out and make sure everything is good and level and where I want it to be."
But on the flip side, are quotes like these, from LaRue's piece:
"I really wrestled with starting or closing, and the bottom line is that after J.J.(Putz) was traded I wanted to close,"
from Baker's blog:
"Once they traded J.J., I thought, I kept going back and forth and back and forth,'' he said. "Two or three weeks before I came to them with it, it's really kind of been just weighing on me. I just felt like a big relief when I went back to the bullpen because I feel that's like my home now. I've been there two years and I don't know if I could go back.''
and from Jim Street's piece on MLB.com:
"I went to them," he said on Sunday morning at the Peoria Sports Complex. "They were going to give me every chance to start because that's what I've asked for in the past. But I decided about a week ago that I'm better off, and I can help the team more, in the bullpen."
"Diabetes is a little bit of a factor, but the major thing is the excitement from coming in at the end of the game. Once you get a taste of closing, I don't think many people would want to go back to anything else."
Health risks aside, Morrow is quoted often saying that he, and others, think he'll be more useful as a reliever. The math isn't with you, Brandon (and others). I respect a player's knowledge of his own health, but I do not respect a player's opinion on how he is best used. Ken Griffey Jr thinks he can still play the outfield. Raul Ibanez thinks he's not bad at defense. Pedro Martinez thinks he's worth $5 million a year. Gary Matthews Jr thinks he's worth a starting job. The list is endless. Baseball players are largely unaware of their own value so if that's the reason Morrow decided to go to the bullpen, then hooray, we now have a guy in the bullpen to match Felix's baseball intelligence out of the rotation. I cannot wait for the first all-fastball game from the duo.
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119 comments
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Comments
Agreed, this is bad, but I'd rather have a decent shot at a 2+ win reliever
than what has to be seen now as pretty long odds at a 3/3.5 win pitcher. I’m guessing that the diabetes played a decent sized role in this decision, and that Morrow could see that his body wasn’t going to let him get 200 IP.
I’m glad he’s happy with the role, just as Paps was excited to get back to closing after one abortive attempt at starting. I don’t want to parse athletes quotes to reporters too much, but there’s a decent chance that he actually would be more valuable as a closer. We simply don’t know if he’s physically capable of giving you enough quality innings to be a Ted Lilly or Dana Eveland. The whole thing is just disappointing.
by marc w on Mar 30, 2009 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Drayer made some good points regarding why he shouldn't start
Lost zip on the fastball, hit and miss second pitch, shaky third pitch, inability to move arm after starts (this is the big one for me). I don’t think Morrow is thinking about money here, at least not on a per year basis. It sounds like he’s trying to improve his longevity as a major leaguer and I can’t really blame him for that.
The diabetes story is odd. He cannot be the only diabetic major leaguer and insulin pumps can take pretty good care of blood glucose fluctuations. I’m sure there’s a way to fasten one to him while he’s on the mound. The arm concerns sound like they can be legitimate but the rest… very odd.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 30, 2009 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sure, I'd (we'd) be fine with it if that was the reason
But
“I really wrestled with starting or closing, and the bottom line is that after J.J.(Putz) was traded I wanted to close,”
by Graham on Mar 30, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not the only reason
His arm really doesn’t seem built for starting.
by Jeff on Mar 30, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
That doesn’t excuse the fact that what tipped the balance appears to be that he thinks closing is cooler.
by Graham on Mar 30, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If his body can't handle starting the balance was going to tip anyway
by Jeff on Mar 30, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but how much of a chance did he/they give it?
He made what, six starts in Tacoma and five starts in Seattle? After basically not starting a game for over 2 years. It’s a wonder his body didn’t automatically adjust to it.
I have no problem if they gave it an honest go and ultimately it just wasn’t going to work out, but come on, does this strike anyone as a full effort to be a starter?
by Matthew on Mar 30, 2009 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am almost certain that he had some similar issues in college as well
I agree with you, and think that more effort probably could have been made, but I get the feeling that this was an inevitability.
by Jeff on Mar 30, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More chance than the Sox gave Papelbon
Besides, I know it’s a tiny sample size, but he really didn’t pitch well as a starter. There’s at least a chance that Morrow knew his body wasn’t letting him do what he needed to do to be an average starter. I’d have loved to see them give it another go, but again, he should know his body. This was inevitable.
by marc w on Mar 30, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you, actually
That doesn’t excuse the quotes about wanting to close because he feels it’s more exciting or whatever. If it’s a health thing, he should flat out say so with none of this other crap.
by Graham on Mar 30, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, in my experience most people say too much
When they explain making major changes in life or work. He is no different here. We would feel better if he responded more like Bedard and said, “My arm feels better out of the bullpen.”
by Sec 108 on Mar 30, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's a fair point
I think that people tend to over-explain those decisions because they are so important that they’d like everyone to support them, so they want to say things that will make people supportive. Morrow may be playing up his value to the team as a closer in part because he doesn’t want to be viewed strictly as a cripple who can’t handle the workload of a starting pitcher.
by ubelmann on Mar 30, 2009 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's probably trying to put a more positive spin on it
by Jeff on Mar 30, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Obviously, the spin makes me think less of him
Part of the hazards of propaganda.
I wish we’d traded him instead of Tillman now.
by Graham on Mar 30, 2009 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm both annoyed and understanding
I loved the shit out of JJ, though, so I’m hoping Morrow flips out all over everyone and we all fall back in love with him.
by Jeff on Mar 30, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like how that draft has gone from 'what the fuck'
to ‘WHAT THE FUCK’ to ‘enh it might be ok if he starts’ and now it’s back to ‘WHAT THE FUCK’.
Unless you’re Matthew in which case it’s just been an ocean of tears and agony.
by Graham on Mar 30, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Graham : 2009 draft :: Matthew : 2006 draft
by seattlebruin on Mar 30, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The spin is part of the job.
If he’s brutally honest about the physical problems with pitching out of the rotation, he further hurts his trade value.
(I think we’d all like Tillman back, and, at the risk of making Dave Cameron’s head explode, I think we’d all love a do-over in the 2006 draft).
by marc w on Mar 30, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he -has- been brutally honest, though
He’s just appended spin to it, which is what I really don’t get.
by Graham on Mar 30, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The thing about the arm concerns that really bothers me is he only gave it 5 starts before making that judgement
If it was really giving him that much trouble we could have gone easier on him, tried to transition him slower and then seen how it felt. He threw a lot of pitches in his first start (more than he probably should have) and I can see that giving him some serious dead arm. I just think that if he genuinely wanted to start but was having trouble with arm pain he would have tried more options before coming to this decision that his body wasn’t suited for it. The reason he didn’t is because….well he didn’t genuinely want to try starting anymore, he thought the idea of closing was more sexy, at least that’s the conclusion I’ve drawn from all this.
by OlSalty on Mar 30, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Churchill is adamant that Morrow was forced to move to the pen, and is covering for the team
by Rudy4three on Mar 30, 2009 11:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Forgive me if I am skeptical
But if the team wants him down there, there’s no reason to hide that.
Take his rumours with a huge salt lick.
by JI on Mar 30, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess, just can't understand why a player who has been adamant about wanting to start and who must know that
that starting pitchers make much more money than relievers, would just call it quits at age 25..
by Rudy4three on Mar 30, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He probably likes the notoriety those lights out closers receive
Maybe he figured he could be more famous as an awesome closer like JJ than he could ever be as a starter.
by OlSalty on Mar 30, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just can't see that.
If the Front Office felt that having Morrow in the bullpen was the best thing possible then why would they need him to cover for them? If I made a decision at work that I felt was best for the company I don’t think I’d be asking the employees to lie about why I did it.
by MFAN on Mar 30, 2009 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not buying it.
With all the quotes coming from Morrow?
by ThundaPC on Mar 30, 2009 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where'd you see that at?
I don’t see that anywhere on PI.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Mar 30, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the point of players not knowing their true value
Though honestly, for some it might be better. All the player loses by understanding they are terrible at hitting is confidence. I’d say as long as the manager/GM understands a players value, there shouldn’t be a problem.
by Ezzra on Mar 30, 2009 11:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Type 1 Diabetes
My father-in-law has Type 1 diabetes, and Morrow’s explanation made sense to me. Insulin pump or no, you really do need to have a routine that you can follow to keep things in balance. And your blood sugar can be put out of whack by things that a person without diabetes wouldn’t expect. That’s not to say that it can’t be overcome (other athletes have) but it isn’t easy, and it may well be that in Brandon’s case, it didn’t look good.
As for the other comments, he might just be rationalizing and getting himself excited about something that he otherwise wouldn’t have wanted. People do this all the time: You prefer option A, but when option B is forced on you, you convince yourself that you really wanted option B all along. Moreover, if option B has advantages, you start to focus on them. It’s not uncommon.
by b_rider on Mar 30, 2009 12:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It seems to me that a SP role would have more structure and set routine, though.
You know you’re going to have to throw 80, 90+ pitches every 5 days, you have your bullpen days and workouts, etc.
With closing it’s all dependent on the score of the game and can change in an instant.
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
by Jack Moore on Mar 30, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but...
It’s not the predictability, but the day to day routine that counts. Each day, he can get ready to go to the bullpen. He doesn’t have one day in five that is vastly different.
by b_rider on Mar 30, 2009 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Devil's advocate
but isn’t starting more predictable than relieving?
by JI on Mar 30, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps in terms of when they get in the game, but I'd assume that relievers have a pretty set routine they go through as well
I think we can also infer from Morrow’s comments that the fatigue from starting was the big problem related to the diabetes, so he should be OK if he can go for shorter stints at more regular intervals.
by seattlebruin on Mar 30, 2009 12:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Being a closer for the M's is so predictiable
Felix start: okay, get ready
Bedard start: sure, might as well
RRS start: there’s a decent change it’ll get to me
Washburn start: don’t bother
Silva start: ha ha ha don’t make me laugh
Morrow start: should probably figure I’ll need to get ready… oh wait
by DMZ on Mar 30, 2009 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really about predictability
It’s about longevity. See Drayer’s latest.
I'm more like I am now than I've ever been.
by ralphie81 on Mar 31, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have Type 1 Diabetes as well.
I am disappointed that Morrow is moving back to the bullpen, but I also have Type 1 Diabetes, so I can understand why he’s doing this. If I don’t eat on a fixed schedule, my blood sugar is very hard to regulate. And if I play (recreational) sports or engage in other physical activities, I have to pay close attention to my activity level and blood sugar. Short spurts of physical activity are easier to manage than long sustained periods of physical activity.
Again, as others have said, that’s assuming of course that his diabetes is the real reason that he’s returning to the bullpen. I agree with Matthew’s point about baseball player’s not understanding their real value, and it’s demonstrably clear that Morrow’s peak value is far higher as a starter than as a reliever.
by urchman on Mar 30, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And it's lot like you can feed him inbetween innings.
Because Carlos Silva fat jokes never get old.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Mar 30, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I hope Morrow realizes his contract potential is now more limited.
But I am sure he will be fine financially after his career.
by Wilder. on Mar 30, 2009 1:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I was a causal fan back in 02-03 but can somebody compare this situation to the Soriano one.
by Robert on Mar 30, 2009 1:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
well, one was a couple years ago, and this happened yesterday
by DMZ on Mar 30, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs
I don't remember Soriano having splurve from hell
by JI on Mar 30, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Soriano trade--->Morrow to pen in '07
It was a pretty major factor in the whole mismanagement of his career thing. Which may not have mattered in the end, but holy fuck it didn’t help.
by Graham on Mar 30, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That winter meetings will go down as the Mariners Treaty of Versailles
by Robert on Mar 30, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
More like Brest-Litovsk
Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism
by esoteric on Mar 30, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or Beads-Manhattan
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Mar 30, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think a 2.7 WAR releif ace is the end of the world.
There were only 46 SPs last year with a WAR higher than 2.7. At 2.8 WAR you had Jake Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, Joe Saunders, and Jesse Litsch.
30 teams in baseball, that means that last year a 2.7 WAR starter would have been pretty much a league-average #2 SP.
If Morrow can bring #2 SP value in the bullpen thats probably the best way to utilize him.
You have to figure that hes a major injury risk in the rotation and his stuff just flat plays better out of the pen. His fastball is unhittable and he can throw his splitter even harder (that splitter that he seems to like calling a changeup).
by taro on Mar 30, 2009 1:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting spin
on the whole situation. That gives me a little optimism for the whole situation.
by Zwakamatsu on Mar 30, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya, and the upside is he could be Gagne 2002-04.
Its not a lock or anything, but Morrow has THAT kind of stuff as a reliever. Hes got BETTER raw stuff than Papelbon, Nathan or Rivera.
Gagne from ‘02-’04 averaged 3.63 WAR per season.
The command is the question mark, but I don’t think theres much debate over the fact that Brandon Morrow has THE #1 fastball in baseball as a reliever. The splitter is also utterly rediculous in releif. Add that slider on top of it and hes got the nastiest stuff in releif of anybody I can think of since a roided-Gagne.
Considering the fact that hes also much less an injury risk in releif, I think its a sensible move.
by taro on Mar 30, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This should strike you as being a wee bit optimistic
Among 218 qualified relievers last year, Brandon Morrow’s tRA ranked 42nd, between Geoff Geary and Jeff Bennett. He has wonderful stuff but he has a long, long way to go before you can start lumping him in with that kind of company.
by Jeff on Mar 30, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure.
But wasn’t he mostly pitching off the fastball early in the year?
Either way I’d say the upside is there with the stuff he has and if he turns into another Papelbon that isn’t too bad either.
by taro on Mar 30, 2009 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saying the best case scenario isn't too bad does not bode well for how good this move actually is
by Graham on Mar 30, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe not, but I don't think its a disaster. A 2.7 WAR reliever is a heck of a lot better than damaged goods in the rotation.
by taro on Mar 30, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well duh
The best possible outcome of one plan generally beats the worst possible outcome of the other.
by Graham on Mar 30, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd say both are mid-range.
I think think 2.0 WAR is a little on the downside for a reliever with Morrow’s stuff (yes I realize he was this last year, but I don’t think thats how he projects forward).
For me, there was no way he would have been able to stay healthy in the rotation. Best-case scenario he gives you 3-4 healthy productive years. More likely hes inconsistent in the rotation with occasional DL stints for 2-3 years before he hits the knife.
A pitcher with diabetes with those kind of mechanics, a history of arm injuries, splitter, slider secondary offerings? I just don’t think it was realistic to expect him to stay healthy as a starter.
by taro on Mar 30, 2009 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Unless Morrow suddenly turns into a groundball pitcher
there is limited reason to think he’ll ever regularly exceed 2 WAR, much less reaching 2.5+ consistently. Those four I listed above, worst among them were around 39% groundballs, Morrow’s holding around 34%.
You are simply being too optimistic on projecting Morrow’s value out of the pen.
by Matthew on Mar 30, 2009 5:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And if we're going to go just off of his early career performances.
His tRA last year was nearly replacement level in the rotation (small sample and all).
I think his stuff just plays better in the bullpen since all of his main pitches are the type that are more effective when thrown harder.
The fact that Morrow himself feels like hes more likely to stay healthy in the bullpen doesn’t hurt. I tend to agree with him.
by taro on Mar 30, 2009 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if I'll disagree with the first two
But Mr. Rivera has this pitch, see…it’s called the cutter. And it’s essentially all he throws. And nobody can hit it, at the highest level in the world, even if they know it’s coming.
It’s been this way for 15 years now. I don’t know if stuff gets any better than that.
by cwel87 on Mar 30, 2009 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Emotions aren't always rational
and I’m angry at Brandon Morrow. Maybe all this talk helps but at the end of the day I’m pretty disappointed and if I need to direct that frustration, its gonna fall right on Morrow’s shoulders. Fair? Maybe not but I don’t really care.
by Edgar for Pres on Mar 30, 2009 4:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Dick Radatz has some amazing, heavy-innings years as a reliever in Boston.
1962 125 innings, 24 saves, 1.97 ERA, 9-6
1963 132 " 25 " 2.29 " 15-6
1964 157 " 29 " 3.91 " 16-9
1965 124 " 22 " 4.64 " 9-11
1966 76 " 14 " 4.74 " 0-5
He continued downhill after that. His decline allegedly began when Manager Ted Williams pushed him to develop a 2nd effective pitch beyond his fastball. It bothered his arm and his fastball was subsequently never the same.
In 1962 he was 25.
Another reliever from that era it might be interesting to check on would be Elroy Face, on Pittsburgh when they were good. I remember he won 18 games one year. I assume he was a big part of their team when they beat the Yankees in the World Series in 1961, the series remembered for the Bill Mazeroski home run.
ignacio
by ignacio on Mar 30, 2009 7:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
correction: "Dick Radatz had..."
But then, as to Roy Face, in 1953, ‘55, ’56 (don’t know what happened in ’54) he threw 119, 126 and 135 innings, his career highs, with what seem from this distance to have been indifferent results. High ERAs and records of 6-8, 5-7, 12-13. Of course, the last, on a bad team, may have represented tremendous achievement. Also, presumably he was often in there to “take one for the team” when they were down early with little chance to come back.
In 1959 he was 18-1, in only 93 innings. It was 1960 (not 1961) that the Pirates won the World Series. Roy Face was 10-8.
ignacio
by ignacio on Mar 30, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ed Walsh racked up some impressive innings totals too.
by Matthew on Mar 30, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It looks like he was a starter, though.
Walsh’s career ERA of 1.82 is something else. But this was back before WW1.
ignacio
by ignacio on Mar 30, 2009 7:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What? Stats from prior eras don't apply directly to today's game?
Is that what you are saying?
by Matthew on Mar 30, 2009 9:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ed Walsh in his best year went 40-15.
ignacio
by ignacio on Mar 30, 2009 9:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lots of people handled lots of things differently in 1962
You won’t see any heavy relief, what with all the pitch count and inning-reduction insanity running around these days. It’s what makes Roy Halladay such a damned unique pitcher.
by cwel87 on Mar 30, 2009 8:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems to me a lot of you guys are complicating matters
Seems pretty simple and clear cut. He’s more suited to the closer role for simple strait forward reasons. He answered questions about it the way he felt about it at the time he was asked and it sounds like he told the truth. The way many of you are freaking out on him for speaking his own personal truth shows yet again why so many athletes choose to speak in sports cliches instead of letting us in.
We have a kick ass closer. Sweet.
Conversely, it appears we are still weak starting rotation wise.
by Blazersaurus on Mar 30, 2009 11:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Some people prefer being simple-minded I guess
Thank you for your strait forward response
by Graham on Mar 31, 2009 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not happy about him moving to the bullpen
but I think we might be overstating his value as a SP a little. Any intelligent projection probably had Morrow pitching 130-160 IP. This is a big difference than the 200 IP many of us have been using as the baseline for a SP.
Justin Verlander was a 3.3 WAR pitcher last year in 200 IP. I think its realistic to think Morrow could do about as well as Verlander did last year and while this might have its problems lets use this as a baseline. Lets assume Morrow does ok but has to sit out a few starts due to fatigue and arm soreness and only accumulates 140 IP. It might be a little low but lets just use it right now. Its probably a realistic number at least. If Morrow pitched as well as Verlander did but for 140 IP he would be a 2.3 WAR pitcher. If you think Morrow will pitch more or better then you can probably bump him up to a 3 WAR pitcher but I think that might be optimistic.
In order to be a 2.3 WAR relief pitcher he would need to be as good as Grant Balfour (or others). Its tough to project a guy to be a top 10 RP but I think Morrow has the stuff to get it done.
I don’t think the difference next year in win value to the team is a massive difference. Probably less than one win but its a shame that the M’s are losing a guy who could hold down a SP gig and probably do a damn good job at it. For the 2009 M’s its not a huge deal but if you wanted to see them contend in 2010 or 2011, it just got a lot tougher.
by Edgar for Pres on Mar 31, 2009 12:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Morrow tantalized us all with that one great start.
It was fun to imagine the possibility of such games every five games. But if he’s more comfortable as a closer… well, I’ll look forward to watching him blow people away three batters at a time, finishing off wins.
ignacio
by ignacio on Mar 31, 2009 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Mariners can threaten .500 the season won't be that bad.
ignacio
by ignacio on Mar 31, 2009 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In 2009 I'd like to watch baseball
In 2010 and 2011, I’d like to watch baseball being played by a team good enough to make and do some damage in the playoffs.
by cwel87 on Apr 1, 2009 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"For the 2009 M’s its not a huge deal but if you wanted to see them contend in 2010 or 2011, it just got a lot tougher."
That’s kind of the whole point.
by Matthew on Mar 31, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it was JoePos who suggested the idea of the "super fireman" which would essentially be a relief ace who could come in and throw multiple innings
and be very effective. I can’t for the life of me find the article, though. Seems like this might be an interesting thing to try with Morrow, letting him go in multiple inning stints and use his awesomeness to work all the way through a lineup once, maybe as a 7-8-9 inning guy.
by seattlebruin on Mar 31, 2009 10:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think I read Bill James postulate the same idea, but I think his version was tied to a roster limit on pitchers.
The whole thing was kind of rolled up as part of a larger plan to speed up the games, and a heavy handed measure to force managers to stop fucking with match ups. Bill James seems to not like fancy pants bullpen strategy, I really like Bill James.
by Kermit. on Mar 31, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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