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What A Day

I guess in some ways it's good to remember that this team is still capable of making me mad. It's just that today was kind of like getting our hands on the Bill and Ted time machine, dialing up "our future," and packing the booth with a homemade pipe bomb loaded with shrapnel. There's no way to sugarcoat it - this has been a bad day for both the current team and the team of tomorrow, and after an offseason that saw most of us become enamored with the organization, this is a tough way to get the ball rolling in 2009.

Jeff Clement going back to AAA is a move I hold against the front office and coaching staff. Offensively, he has nothing left to learn in Tacoma, and defensively, I question how much further development is realistic considering that he's 25 and his body seems to prefer something different. He might be able to make some incremental improvements given intense instruction and enough playing time to work out a few kinks, but incremental improvements aren't going to change the way he's perceived. This organization is still reloading - as opposed to trying to win now - and as such, they should've given Clement the chance to sink or swim behind the plate with the big club in 2009. That they don't appear willing to do so does no favors for our present, our future, or Clement's career. Regardless of whether or not you think Adam Moore was going to make Clement obsolete in 2010 anyway, this is a move that takes a bat away from the 2009 Mariners while simultaneously serving to reduce Clement's value. In the minors, he just has so little to gain and so much to lose.

The Mariners clearly don't think that Clement is a viable big league catcher right now. If they did, he'd still be with the team. Something they're hoping for, then, is that he's able to take a step forward as a backstop while sustaining a productive bat, but more realistically, they either need to convince him to change positions or they need to find another team that's willing to give him a shot behind the plate. In the event of the latter, they'll probably want to strike soon, before he has a chance to drive his value down even more. It's just a lousy situation all around that doesn't make anyone happy but Rob Johnson, and nobody gives a fuck about Rob Johnson.

Jeff Clement was supposed to be the slugging catcher of the future, but I don't know that he's ever faced longer odds of fulfilling that dream with Seattle. Here's hoping he's able to bounce back from this and still give us a good chunk of value down the line, be it as trade bait or as a 1B/DH (or, I guess, as a catcher). You better not let me down, Adam Moore. Now all eyes turn to you.

The Brandon Morrow decision, however, I do not hold against the front office. At least, not this front office. As best as I can tell, his main reasons for wanting to switch back to relief are:

  • he feels more comfortable and excited in the bullpen
  • his issue with diabetes is easier to control as a reliever
  • he feels his arm and body are best suited for relief

#1 sure sounds like the fault of one Bill Bavasi, doesn't it? From Pravda:

"Once you get a taste of closing, I don't think many people would want to go back to anything else."

Had the Bavasi administration handled Morrow as a starter from the beginning, rather than rushing him into a one-inning role as a Major League reliever, Morrow never would've developed a taste for closing in the first place, and that whole situation could've been avoided. This is just the latest bit of evidence that bad front offices don't disappear overnight. You can sever the head and you can sever the limbs, but while the body may be dead, there's no telling how much longer one may remain aware of its influence.

But as for points #2 and #3, what are Zduriencik & co. supposed to say? There were questions about Morrow's durability and stamina back in college, and when you add in the whole diabetes problem, at some point you have to throw up your hands and concede that there's nothing you can do. Morrow had the right attitude transitioning into a starting role last summer, and he did his best to get acclimated to the new situation, but he was having trouble with his blood-sugar, and his arm felt like shit the day after starting. All starters will experience soreness after throwing 90 or 100 pitches, but with Morrow, he could barely move his arm. Yes, he was able to recover in time to make his starts, but that's a pretty significant signal that something isn't right.

Zduriencik and Wakamatsu could've expressed to Morrow their desire to keep him as a starter. I'm sure they did. Several times. But at the end of the day, if Morrow doesn't think his body can handle a job in the rotation, then that's his decision, and the team simply has to make the best of it. You can't just force him into doing something he doesn't think his body can do. I mean, you could, but that hardly seems prudent. As disappointed as I am by this news, I'm going to give Brandon the benefit of the doubt that he knows his body and applaud him for being honest. A Brandon Morrow that's successful in relief is better than a Brandon Morrow that's inconsistent or injured as a starter.

As a closer, Morrow has the stuff to be lights-out. We've seen it before, and if he's able to keep himself steady, he'll end up being worth somewhere between 2-3 WAR, hanging out with the other elite relievers in baseball. That's good. It's not terrific, and we all know that a guy with his repertoire has the potential to be an enormous value in the rotation, but if Morrow can't do it, then this is a reasonable Plan B. Something tells me the Red Sox aren't too bummed out about Papelbon's failed starting experiment.

What this means for the M's is that (A) they don't need to worry about the closer anymore (best wishes, Tyler Walker), (B) Josh Fields looks redundant, (C) they need to address their starting pitching depth, and (D) the future got a little less bright. C and D are the biggies. As far as C is concerned, there's no one behind Garrett Olson, and there are no righties behind Carlos Silva (edit: forgot Batista). Prepare yourself for a trade or, at the very least, a signing. And as for D, I don't care how good Morrow is as a closer - good starters are more valuable than great closers, and Morrow as a starter had limitless potential. Not to put too much pressure on the guy, but I imagine it won't be long before Phillippe Aumont starts feeling the heat. We kind of really need him to not bust.

Today isn't the day I wanted to have, but now that we've had it, we've no choice but to deal with it and move on ahead. If you feel that familiar warmth wrapping itself around your shoulders, it's your old identity, and it's welcoming you back.

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Comments

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Only if Clement truly can't handle it behind the plate

Okay, there’s consensus in our little M’s blog community that the best thing with Clement would have been to leave him in the bigs and see if he sorts out his skills with the bat and behind the plate. I’m part of the consensus and I think I still agree. But that basically means that we disagree with the FO about how best to develop Clement’s skills. In light of this decision, I have to say that I’m less convinced of the consensus than I was before.

This blog community is very smart, but I’m willing to say that we know a lot more about player evaluation than player development. I’m willing to bet the FO knows more about the latter. The FO knows a lot more about Clement than we do as well. Maybe this is evidence that they’re not as smart as several smart moves suggested, but it might be evidence that Clement is a pull-happy lefty that’s too old to get over it and that he will be eaten by MLB pitchers as long as they have scouting videos to know it, and that he’s best left in AAA until we can trade him and Josh Fields for something in the neighborhood of what the organization needs.

by philosofool on Mar 30, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think it was a legitimately terrible signing

Not the best decision, maybe, but not terrible…

by Ezzra on Mar 30, 2009 11:58 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm suspicious that it played a role in the Clement decision

Since this likely means Griffey will be playing almost every day barring injury when he stood to lose significant playing time while Clement and Wlad were given at bats. And if the rationale for that was to sell more tickets by having him play more at the expense of wins then that would be a genuinely terrible decision and would reek of continued ownership meddling. But maybe I’m reading too much into it.

by OlSalty on Mar 30, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just don't like having role player around who is treated like a superstar

There’s too much danger that it could wear thin very quickly.

by JI on Mar 30, 2009 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, my day wasn't so bad as an M's fan.

I invested $230 into an authentic alternate M’s jersey. Fortunately, I chose a starter that will hopefully be with the M’s for several more years – Felix Hernandez. It is really a thing of beauty. I don’t know what to covet more now, my Felix Jersey or my Edgar Autographed grease-fingerprinted baseball. I digress.

Yes, this is a bad day, but this clears the way for RRS, and hopefully if FO doesn’t want to keep Clement, they can turn him into a possible high ceiling pitcher.

by Fin on Mar 29, 2009 7:47 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It was fun being happy for a while

C’est la vie

Maybe they aren’t planning to keep Clement down for very long and he’ll still spend the majority of the season in the majors, but at this point I think it’s far more likely they’ve lost confidence in him and are planning to ship him out.

As for Morrow, it does sound like it was his decision and as much as I respect that he knows his own body it is really aggravating that he didn’t give it a little more time before making up his mind. Yeah the first few starts after converting from relief are going to suck for your arm, there is some sort of happy medium between forcing yourself to work through injury and forcing yourself to work through the soreness every reliever-turned-starter is going to experience to get to the point where it doesn’t bother you as much.

After thinking about this some more it does seem like the front office tried to convince him to reconsider, thus why it seemingly took so long for them to announce this. They asked him to go out and throw a few games to see how his arm felt as a last ditch effort to try to convince him to change his mind, and he didn’t. So it’s hard to blame them for not doing their utmost to make him a starter, if he won’t do it he won’t do it.

There’s really no excuse for the Clement decision though, not unless he is traded and soon, because if he’s really supposed to be a part of this teams future they are fucking it up royally by sending him down again.

by OlSalty on Mar 29, 2009 7:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Could Swisher be more easily had?

http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/stone/2009/03/24/swisher_aced_out_hmmm.html

Stone mentions here that Nady was named the starting RFer. Doesn’t seem like much of an option after the Griffey signing. Kind of makes you wish we’d waited. I certainly wouldn’t mind him taking some AB’s away from Griffey/Endy.

by Fuckmikereilly on Mar 29, 2009 8:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd vote against it at this point.

I support giving Balentien another chance to succeed this year.

by Ezzra on Mar 30, 2009 12:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Honestly,

As bad as today was for the Mariners organization it only took me a few minutes to get over it.

So Morrow is going to be a reliever for the foreseeable future. Bavasi gave him a taste of it and now he wants it. Bavasi is gone now. What else can we do about it? What it does is hamper the potential upside for the starting rotation and presents a new problem. With only Felix being the only solid option as a starter going forward this rotation needs some work. I won’t be surprised if we see some heavy competition for rotation slots next Spring Training.

Clement to AAA to work on his catching kinda sucks. This basically just continues the holding pattern and potentially reduces his value at the same time. At worst, I feel bad for Clement for basically being stuck in limbo. Really don’t know what Zduriencik’s team is planning so I don’t really have an opinion on this yet.

I just got finished reading an article Baker put up regarding Clement’s assignment. Seems like they believe Clement’s defense is improving and they’re going to spend time building on that. I’m not convinced that this is a cut-and-dry “mistake”. Seems like they’re doing everything they can to make him the solid-hitting catcher that he was drafted as. I understand that if his offense goes backwards down their it will decrease his value quite a bit. I’ll be watching this one closely.

For me, this is what it feels like to have a bad day with a good organization. It’s like “there’s more work to be done” and “are you sure you know what you’re doing?”. Last year, it would’ve been like “Geez…what the hell?”

by ThundaPC on Mar 29, 2009 8:19 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Bummer day.

But with the standard disclaimer that I’d rather have him starting if it were that simple, it will be nice to have Morrow in the bullpen. And if Fields is as good as advertised and we end up with two closers, another team will probably be willing to give us something of value for one of them. And if we don’t want to do that, there’s no rule that you can only have one flamethrowing stud in your bullpen. We definitely overpaid for such a privilege, but it’s not the worst thing in the world.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Brandon probably knows more about his body than I do. If he really feels that his body won’t hold up, then this is for the best.

As for Clement . . . ugh. That hurts.

by Teej on Mar 29, 2009 8:30 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Of course not

I’m just saying, if the Nats pass on Stras, it’ll be out of stupidity and we are not likely to luck into a player of that caliber ever again. That certainly doesn’t mean I won’t skip with glee for the remainder of the day, but that I won’t expect it to happen again unless we worked for our fortunes in the future.

by cwel87 on Mar 31, 2009 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Jeff pretty much nailed it

Although, while Fields may be somewhat redundant now, I don’t think that Morrow as closer makes Fields all that much less valuable. If there are two (or more) teams that value Fields as a closer, the Mariners can get closer value for him even if Morrow is entrenched in the role. The same essentially goes for Morrow if you decide to trade him and keep Fields as closer. Having two ace relievers isn’t all that bad, either. In a perfect world, you might wait to make the bullpen the cherry on top when you think you can contend, but that’s one less thing they’ll have to take care of when they start fitting the rest of the pieces together.

by ubelmann on Mar 29, 2009 8:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Personally I don't think it's a matter of Morrow's character at all

I just wish he had tried to make the starter thing work for a while longer before making up his mind considering the consequences for the team in his decision (not to mention the consequences for his own career). He’s young and maybe he kind of rushed to make a decision that wasn’t really well thought out like a lot of people tend to do when they are young.

by OlSalty on Mar 29, 2009 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that

fans care about the “consequences for the team” a lot more than players do. Professional sports is a cutthroat business, players don’t have time to worry about anything but themselves.

by brayden04 on Mar 30, 2009 4:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I really can't believe that everyone she has spoken to from other organizations believed Morrow would never start..

Please, Bill James a few days ago was still giddy about him as a starter with Cy-Young caliber potential.

Really, I dont find it plausible that we were the only team thinking he could start.

by Rudy4three on Mar 29, 2009 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really depends on how you define starting.

Any reliever could start for 1 or 2 games. But most organizations expect starters to go 180+ IP, with 200+ being the somewhat arbitrary gold standard. No one should expect Morrow to come anywhere close to that this season.

by JLC on Mar 29, 2009 9:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think either move is that bad

Going to AAA is the only way Clement would get a reasonable amount of playing time, and I’m not convinced that it’s impossible to get rid of Johjima. They could always end up moving Clement later as well. Morrow to relief shouldn’t be overly surprising, either. I just wish Morrow was starting as soon as he was drafted.

by JLC on Mar 29, 2009 9:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Guys, has anyone thought about how dreadful this rotation is going to be next year..

Felix, Silva, Rowland-Smith…. and no arms anywhere near ready to help out in our system and a terrible FA crop..

Jack is gonna have to work some magic in trades or else 2010 could be really really painful rotation wise.

As for Fields, Im a big fan of having two devastating power guys at the back of the pen, and Morrow and Fields could be a very nice combo.. I actually would prefer Morrow in a relief ace role given that he does have the arm stamina to give you 2 innings if need be.

A Morrow 7th/8th inning guy, with Fields in the 9th could be really nice, but I guess that’ll depend on how Fields progresses and how Morrow does as closer.. If he’s Papelbon-like, then I guess Fields becomes a relief ace

by Rudy4three on Mar 29, 2009 9:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

2010 is a long time from now

A lot of things can happen between now and then. I think it’s fair to say that there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Mariners’ rotation in 2010, but even if all that the Mariners can do is fill out the rotation with replacement level arms for minimum contracts, they could still potentially improve the team by spending the money saved on Bedard and Washburn on other areas of the club. You don’t necessarily need a studly rotation to be a decent team.

by ubelmann on Mar 29, 2009 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't really expect the M's to go on all cylinders until 2011

I think playing .500 baseball this year and having a win total in the mid to high 80s in 2010 (all while rebuilding the farm system) are good, realistic goals. It’ll be a couple of years before the Mariners get all the Bavasi out of their system. And after the 2010 season Josh Beckett (b. early 1980), Brandon Webb (b. early 1979), and Roy Halladay (b. early 1977) will be free agents – and probably some other good arms too (I’m not the guy to ask whether these new thirty-somethings would be worth a 3-5 year deal in 2011). But its something to think about when considering the 5-year plan of the team.

by Decatur on Mar 29, 2009 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The defense is going to be a boon to run prevention.

I would hate seeing Washburn and Batista in the rotation, but Silva should be average-ish, and we have Felix and Bedard. It’s not stellar, but it’s not going to be the downfall of this team.

by Teej on Mar 29, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think it's going to be terrible.

If anything, 2010 will prove just how easy it is to replace Washburn.

by ThundaPC on Mar 29, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Would an attempt to convert Fields to starting be a smart decision now?

I can understand keeping him in the pen and maybe trying to trade him somewhere down the line as well, and I don’t know how well he would project as a starter but it’s another answer to the Morrow being incapable/Fields being redundant conundrum.

by OlSalty on Mar 29, 2009 9:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

He'd have to develop a third pitch and learn to control the two he's got

So it’s probably an incredibly long shot

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Mar 29, 2009 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yea, that's not going to happen. Almost all of us were against the Fields signing, so now it looks even worse.

However, I don’t have an issue with having two power backend relievers. I think alot of the really good teams have more than one lights out guy in the back of the pen, so a Morrow/Fields 1-2 punch isnt the end of the world. We would have all liked Jack to use that pick in this yrs draft, but it’s over with now.

But my point is we dont have to go doing something crazy with Fields now because Morrow is the closer. If Fields can reach his potential he has value to us and to other teams

by Rudy4three on Mar 29, 2009 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm almost certain this won't happen

Fields has started all of one game in college and he’s already pretty old to begin a conversion at this point. Besides, his control is awful and he would lose velocity on his fastball to conserve his stamina if he became a starter.

by JLC on Mar 29, 2009 10:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

0

Dude can barely go more than an inning

by Graham on Mar 29, 2009 11:30 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Highly unlikely.

Fields started one game in college, and it was a planned two-inning outing. He’s a reliever for life, barring something miraculous.

by Teej on Mar 29, 2009 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Drayer's piece, linked above by msb

settled me down quite a bit, at least as far as clement is concerned. Apparently he’s made enough advances defensively to be able to stick at catcher, and while he doesn’t have anything left to learn in Tacoma as Jeff says, he does still have to put it all together, if you will. That is, catching per se is still not second nature to him so he is focused on his defense at a cost to his offense. Putting ujp shitty numbers against elite pitching is probably not a good way to get comfortable catching guys like Silva and Washburn, who suck and like to make excuses for it. So there is an argument to be made for having Clement play at Cheney for a little while while he polishes his defensive game while not having to worry so much about his hitting. Really, if it were 2010 I’d be much more concerned than I am.

Also, I’m glad the site logo has not changed.

Also, I just saw Duplicity and it’s pretty great.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 29, 2009 10:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think we have to be realistic about Clement

Given the developmental curve of catchers historically and given Clement’s two knee surgeries, the odds of Clement sticking at catcher in the majors for more than 3 or 4 seasons is pretty low.

Really, I don’t think the poor defense is what hurts Clement’s trade value, but it’s his injury history that does.

by JLC on Mar 29, 2009 10:34 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Miguel Batista is a right handed starting pitcher

After Felix and Bedard, an argument might (big might) be able to be made that he is our highest upside SP for next year.

by Edgar for Pres on Mar 30, 2009 12:00 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Or to clarify

His regressed tRA last season was 6.58, below replacement level, and he’s a year older. I don’t think in any way shape or form this would be a good idea.

by OlSalty on Mar 30, 2009 12:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And he has a really big not having any stuff problem

And he has a really big not being an even remotely effective starting pitcher problem. At his age there is no upside to be had, especially not after what we witnessed last year.

by OlSalty on Mar 30, 2009 12:11 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

RRS?

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Mar 30, 2009 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I was kinda joking when I said it

but I think its not insane to say. RRS is basically Washburn II. If RRS starts I would argue that Washburn would be a great upside comp. He’s not gonna strike out a ton of people, allows quite a bit of fair balls and his best chance for success will be to limit the walks he allows. We should like him because he is decent and cheap but he just isn’t really gonna have the stuff to become more than a #4/5/6 starter.

Batista is pretty shitty right now. All my comment should have said was that Batista might be able to be better than Washburn, Silva or RRS next year if he could cut his walks in half (which is doable since they are so freaking high). I don’t think that will happen but I do think that the rest of the rotation probably will be very easy to project and has so little variance that you can basically pencil in how they will do.

by Edgar for Pres on Mar 30, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fuck Brandon Morrow.

You can't hide from the omnipresent eye.

by Goose on Mar 30, 2009 3:45 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well,

time to see if Morrow can be lights-out for a few months in front of this defense and see if a king’s ransom can be gotten for him in July.

by craig3410 on Mar 30, 2009 6:38 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I like how...

LL preaches the importance of defense and how GMZ has improved our defense. But now he is being yelled at because Clement, a below average catcher is being sent down. Clement also did not hit in the big leagues last year and he is having a poor spring training so why should he be given the spot? If your concerned about a power bat give LF to Wlad instead of Endy. Which is a downgrade in defense, but it is virtually the same with Clement and Rob/Kenji. So I don’t see the big deal.

Plus, if your worried about value, say he stayed on the Major League team and does just awful. That doesn’t help his value either.

by shunter160 on Mar 30, 2009 8:46 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This effectively cripples Clement's chance of being a catcher with the Mariners

That’s bad. I would’ve much rather seen what he can do over Rob Johnson.

by Jeff on Mar 30, 2009 8:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

And the effect of catcher defence appears to be horribly overstated anyway.

As for Clement’s poor ST, he’s OBP’ing what, .370? After a nightmare start, too.

by Graham on Mar 30, 2009 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Defense is important, but Clement's offensive potential is what makes him valuable being behind the plate.

As mentioned many times, Clement has nothing more to prove at the Triple-A level offensively. He needs time to develop his bat at the ML-level.

by Wilder. on Mar 30, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

As far as we can tell, Clement may be a horrible defensive catcher, but the spread between the best and worst catchers (assuming they are ML-caliber players) is very small compared to other fielders

also, it’s not as if Kenji Johjima has lit the world on fire as a defensive catcher either. This isn’t a Raul Ibanez/Endy Chavez thing here – this is a “this guy could have helped this team, and I don’t doubt he will this season” type thing.

by seattlebruin on Mar 30, 2009 11:53 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Emotional Cycle of Change strikes again.

We’ve certainly had our uninformed optimism at first, and now we have hit our uninformed pessimism. We haven’t even played any games yet – we don’t know how all of these pieces will fit together come April.

I am sure 2009 will have some fun moments, and we won’t humiliate ourselves again. Apart from that, we shouldn’t expect too much else for now or the medium term, because this organisation is pretty sucky and GMZ is going to need a long reign to put things right.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Mar 30, 2009 10:14 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm not overly upset

this recent news sucks ass, but I feel that this is still Bavasi’s work.

This next off season will be GMZ’s true test. With all that payroll coming off the books but with plenty of holes in our pitching staff to fix.

by IceStormV1 on Mar 30, 2009 10:43 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow it only took

one questionable move to write off GMZ as a failure in some people’s eyes. Incredible.

by Zwakamatsu on Mar 30, 2009 2:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I dunno...

if the Mariners don’t think he’s a MLB C, why is anyone else going to buy this?

Also, I would argue that the Mariners probably would have been better off this offseason not signing Griffey or Sweeney, and putting Clement and Shelton in sharing time at DH/1B/C with the incumbents, save for the awesome chemistrycharacter the veterans bring to the table, plus the season ticket sales/memorabilia/etc. from Griffey- and Clement’s demotion is in part because there are so many bodies blocking his way onto the MLB roster.

As for Morrow… (sigh).

by eponymous_coward on Mar 30, 2009 3:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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