The Steve Phillips Challenge
by Trenchtown on Mar 28, 2009 2:56 PM PDT
28 comments
So this all started after I was trying to explain to one of my good friends that ESPN baseball analysts are terrible and I showed him the USS Mariner article about where Vegas evaluated all of the ESPN and Pecota analysts and only Pecota, Rob Neyer, and Keith Law beat a projection where every team went 81-81
This link can be found here
So last night him, a couple other of my fraternity brothers and I went through all of the major league teams and projected their wins for the coming season and wrote them down to evaluate at the end of the year to see if A: we could beat the null projection of everyone at 81-81 and B: to see if at the very least we could beat Steve Phillips.
I figured this was something the Lookout Landing community could get behind too so if you want to submit your projections on teams for the coming season in this thread I will record them in excel and we can play against Steven Phillips and ourselves to see who had the best projection come the end of the season.
I will put my projection in the comments but one quick note of advice is that there are 2430 wins up for grabs in a normal season so you might want to adjust your projections to meet that number
Good Luck on the Steve Phillips Challenge!!!!!!!!
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My projection
Yankees: 91-71
Red Sox: 93-69
Rays: 85-77
Blue Jays: 78-84
Orioles: 73-89
Tigers: 74-88
Indians: 86-76
Royals: 73-89
White Sox: 79-83
Twins: 82-80
Angels: 86-76
Athletics: 84-78
Rangers: 77-85
Mariners: 79-83
NL
Marlins: 79-83
Braves: 84-78
Mets: 90-72
Nationals: 73-89
Phllies: 87-75
Cubs: 88-74
Cardinals: 78-84
Astros: 72-90
Pirates: 68-94
Reds: 82-80
Brewers: 86-76
Dodgers: 86-76
Padres: 70-92
Giants: 81-81
Rockies: 80-82
Diamondbacks: 87-75
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
by Trenchtown on Mar 28, 2009 3:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Just a question, but...
why didn’t you list them first to last in each division?
Throw the snacks in the bag and I'm ghost like Swayze!
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
by JLProck on Mar 28, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
because
I did it right from my excel sheet; and we did a round robin pick so we couldn’t keep bogarting each others answers
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
by Trenchtown on Mar 28, 2009 8:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Something's really strange here.
I have you as having two more total wins than losses, 2431-2429.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Mar 28, 2009 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I founde the mistake
I have the twins at 82-80 when I meant to have them at 81-81. It was a transfer error
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
by Trenchtown on Mar 29, 2009 3:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
why not
AL EAST
BOS 95-67
TBR 93-69
NYY 88-74
TOR 82-80
BAL 66-96
AL CENTRAL
CLE 85-77
DET 82-80
CHW 80-82
KCR 78-84
MIN 75-87
AL WEST
ANA 86-76
SEA 80-82
OAK 79-83
TEX 76-86
NL EAST
NYM 90-72
PHI 85-77
ATL 85-77
FLA 82-80
WAS 69-93
NL CENTRAL
CHC 94-68
MIL 86-76
STL 83-79
CIN 81-81
HOU 74-88
PIT 66-96
NL WEST
LAD 87-75
SFG 83-79
COL 81-81
ARI 76-86
SDP 63-99
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
by Jack Moore on Mar 28, 2009 6:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Go big or go home.
AL
BOS 98-64
TB 92-70
NYY 89-73
TOR 74-88
BAL 70-92
CLE 87-75
MIN 86-76
DET 79-83
CWS 75-87
KC 65-97
OAK 88-74
LAA 82-80
SEA 80-82
TEX 73-69
NL
NYM 93-69
PHI 90-73*
ATL 82-80
FLA 75-87
WAS 63-99
CHC 96-66
MIL 91-72*
STL 78-84
CIN 78-84
HOU 76-86
PIT 71-91
SF 89-73
LAD 86-76
COL 75-87
ARZ 72-80
SD 69-93
- Milwaukee beats Philadelphia in a One-Game Playoff for NL Wild Card
BOS def. CLE in 4
TB Def. OAK in 3
MIL def. NYM in 4
SF def. CHC in 5
BOS def. TB in 6
MIL def. SF in 7
BOS def. SF in 5.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Mar 28, 2009 7:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Aw hell, I forgot.
I should have called for a rainout.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Mar 28, 2009 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I caught a typing error
STL should be 87-75, not 78-84.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Mar 28, 2009 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
Red Sox: 95-67
Rays: 94-72
Yankees: 90-72
Blue Jays: 77-85
Orioles: 74-88
Indians: 89-73
Tigers: 83-79
Twins: 80-82
White Sox: 76-86
Royals: 74-88
Angels: 84-78
Athletics: 82-80
Mariners: 79-83
Rangers: 73-89
Mets: 88-74
Phillies: 86-77
Braves: 84-78
Marlins: 72-90
Nationals: 70-92
Cubs: 90-72
Cardinals: 86-76
Brewers: 83-79
Reds: 78-84
Pirates: 72-90
Astros: 71-91
Dodgers: 85-77
Diamondbacks: 82-80
Giants: 81-81
Rockies: 77-85
Padres: 75-87
by JI on Mar 28, 2009 7:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You're also down a game on the Phillies.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Mar 28, 2009 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, cool.
I’m bored at the moment, so I’m logging these too… I’m curious how the community projection holds up.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Mar 28, 2009 8:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The absolute value of the difference between the community and CHONE is 86.8 games.
We differ 10.2 wins on San Diego (CHONE 80, LL 69.8) and 6.4 wins on NYY (CHONE 97, LL 90.6). Those are the main culprits aside from my batshit pick of the Giants.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Mar 28, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think CHONE knows about A-Rod
and is over optimistic about Posada
by JI on Mar 28, 2009 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll play along:
AL EAST:
Red Sox: 96-66
Yankees: 94-68
Rays: 90-72
Blue Jays: 83-79
Orioles: 77-85
AL CENTRAL:
Indians: 86-76
Twins: 81-81
Tigers: 77-85
White Sox: 76-86
Royals: 68-94
AL WEST:
Angels: 85-77
A’s: 83-79
Rangers: 80-82
Mariners: 77-85
NL EAST:
Mets: 93-69
Phillies: 88-74
Braves: 83-79
Marlins: 79-83
Nationals: 63-99
NL CENTRAL:
Cubs: 95-67
Brewers: 84-78
Cardinals: 82-80
Reds: 77-85
Pirates: 70-92
Astros: 66-96
NL WEST:
Dodgers: 88-74
Giants: 85-77
D-Backs: 82-80
Rockies: 74-88
Padres: 68-94
That should be 2,430 wins there.
Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?
by Benne on Mar 29, 2009 12:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
ooh ooh me me
Red Sox: 99-63
Yankees: 92-70
Rays: 91-71
Blue Jays: 83-79
Orioles: 77-85
Indians: 92-70
Twins: 85-77
Tigers: 84-78
Royals: 72-90
White Sox: 70-92
A’s: 86-76
Angels: 84:78
Rangers: 80-82
Mariners: 79-81
Mets: 94-68
Phillies: 90-72
Braves: 85-77
Marlins: 80-82
Nationals: 64-98
Cubs: 95-67
Cardinals: 88-74
Brewers: 82-80
Reds: 77-85
Pirates: 70-92
Astros: 66-96
D-Backs: 90-72
Dodgers: 85-77
Giants: 85-77
Rockies: 72-90
Padres: 66-96
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 29, 2009 3:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm a sucker for these.
BOS: 94-68
TAM: 91-71
NYY: 90-72
TOR: 74-88
BAL: 70-92
CLE: 87-75
MIN: 84-78
DET: 75-87
CHW: 73-89
KC: 72-90
LAA: 86-76
SEA: 83-79
OAK: 78-84
TEX: 76-86
NYM: 91-71
PHI: 90-72 +1 for WC
ATL: 85-77
FLA: 75-87
WAS: 70-92
CHC: 96-66
MIL: 90-72
STL: 83-79
CIN: 73-89
PIT: 71-91
HOU: 67-95
ARI: 90-72
LAD: 88-74
COL: 82-82
SF: 78-84
SD: 68-94
by hcoguy on Mar 29, 2009 10:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't post much, but couldn't resist this
BOS: 99-63
TB: 94-68
NYY: 89-73
TOR: 70-92
BAL: 65-97
CLE: 85-77
MIN: 83-79
DET: 72-90
CHW: 70-92
KC: 65-97
SEA: 89-73
LAA: 86-76
OAK: 75-87
TEX: 73-89
NYM: 98-64
FLA: 85-77
PHI: 84-78
ATL: 82-80
WAS: 55-107
STL: 84-78
CHC: 83-77
MIL: 81-81
CIN: 75-87
HOU: 70-92
PIT: 65-97
ARI: 94-68
LAD: 92-70
SF: 85-77
COL: 82-80
SD: 61-101
AL WC: TB
NL WC: LAD
ALDS: BOS def. CLE, TB def. SEA
NLDS: NYM def. LAD, ARI def. STL
ALCS: TB def. BOS
NLCS: NYM def. ARI
WS: NYM def. TB
by sironz on Mar 29, 2009 11:40 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow - two people here think Toronto will finish above .500.
In that division, I just don’t see how that’s possible.
I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.
by Llewdor on Mar 30, 2009 10:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Because I feel like beating Steve Phillips by being stupid is the right way to do things
TB: 92-70
BOS: 90-72
NYY: 90-72
TOR: 72-90
BAL: 70-92
CLE: 86-76
MIN: 84-78
DET: 78-84
CHW: 76-86
KC: 72-90
SEA: 83-79
LAA: 82-80
OAK: 80-82
TEX: 79-83
PHI: 92-70
NYM: 90-72
FLA: 84-78
ATL: 82-80
WAS: 70-92
CHC: 92-70
STL: 84-78
MIL: 80-82
CIN: 78-84
PIT: 76-86
HOU: 70-92
LAD: 86-76
ARI: 85-77
COL: 78-84
SF: 77-85
SD: 72-90
by cwel87 on Mar 30, 2009 9:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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