3/27: Open Game Thread
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 27, 2009 12:19 PM PDT
in Seattle Mariners Game Threads
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PrintBedard vs. the Fluketobers.
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But I thought he said "help"
I want to poop at your house - Thingray
by tootthekazoo on Mar 27, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I hope that our OF defense makes Washburn look so good that we can fool someone into taking him off our hands by the deadline
We just need to make sure he makes up some bs about a new mechanic in his delivery that helped him turn the corner and we’re golden.
If he's does well up until the deadline, which is a full 4 months into the season, why not just keep him?
How much money do you figure we’ll save by trading him in July?
by Susheel Ramasahayam on Mar 27, 2009 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Trading him has the potential to bring back a C or even a B prospect
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 27, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Won't he be a type A free agent, though?
Even if he doesn’t sign a big contract? I’d much rather take a #1 pick and sandwich pick over whatever prospects Washburn can bring (unless we trade him to the Nationals, whom I just want to spite for being better at losing than us).
Even if he is only a type B
The return from that is probably still better than what we’d get in a salary dump midseason.
Free Stephen "Awesome" Strasburg!
by seattlecougar on Mar 27, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions
There's no way Washburn will be a Type A and he's unlikely to be a Type B
plus would you really want to risk offering him arbitration?
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 27, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions
0 chance that Washburn will get Type A status
and given that he’s going to make over $10 million this season, offering him arbitration would be a monumental mistake.
Wow, I stand corrected
I don’t really understand how Elias figures the Type A rankings, so I assumed that Washburn was Type A because he’s thrown so many innings. How good does a pitcher be to get Type A status?
In other words, he'd have to put up his 2007 numbers in 2009 to achieve a similar ranking.
(dependent on other SP’s, of course)
This comment looks stupid.
I thought we were talking about Bedard getting to Type A, not Washburn.
Slow down and read, kid.
The point is he's not really doing well though
It just looks like he’s doing well because the outfield defense is so good. In reality he’s still the same shitty pitcher he always was but a bunch less of those flyballs and line drives are dropping in for hits and thus keeping his ERA and whatnot down.
And we can get some talent for him at the deadline if someone is desperate, it’s not just about money anymore.
Money would have helped this offseason FA period
When there were people to spend it on. At the deadline, that talent pool is not there. The best it would do us is free up that money to trade for someone more expensive in another deal, but that involves paying talent, which I can’t see us doing unless it’s a marginally small cost and we’re genuine competitors come end of July.
But if we are contending in July, I don’t see him getting traded. At this point, he’s probaby riding out the rest of his contract in Seattle.
Free Stephen "Awesome" Strasburg!
by seattlecougar on Mar 27, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions
The money could be used to sign draft picks
or international free agents.
I didn't think they factored that into the payroll budget we usually see
Since most of it is 1-time bonus payments. Or, if they did, assuming that they wouldn’t have run the budget up to where it is now knowing all offseason they had the #2 pick to use.
Hopeless optimism, I know, but if Strasburg falls to us, I have a feeling they take him and pay him even without finding a taker on Washburn.
Free Stephen "Awesome" Strasburg!
by seattlecougar on Mar 27, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Ryan Rowland-Smith
appears to be cockblocking himself right now
Kenji is hitting .750
If the season ended today and Spring Training stats counted like regular season stats – that’d be a record.
Dammit
The minimum ABs is the only thing keeping this from being an historic achievement about which songs would be written.
But I don't speak Japanese
Perhaps many things rhymy with Johjima in his native tongue.
Translated it would be like Johjima – Potato. But to them it would be sweet music.
I just mean the general order and idea behind it
I didn’t look at averages or anything.
You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.
Christian Colonel?
Bedard gave up a grand slam to an adjective.
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 27, 2009 1:17 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I was going to go with 'Bedard gave up a grand slam to a rank'
but go with it – it’s broader, it’s more relate-able.
Bedard gives up a Grand Slam
Since it’s spring training does that mean he’s improving or getting worse?
On the positive side of things
Bedard is averaging 18 Ks per 9 innings today.
OK, so this game sucks, let's talk more about the draft.
Looking back from 2007-1987, I can’t seem to find a case where the consensus #1 pitcher or first pitcher taken becomes the best pitcher in that draft class. Andy Benes is close, but I think Tim Wakefield takes it. David Price we don’t know about, but I can see Bumgarner (or Aumont!) passing him.
Still, there are plenty of Harkeys and Millers and Niemann/Townsends out there. What do you make of that? Is history simply irrelevant when talking about a talent like Strasburg? Or, to put it a different way, what chance would you give Strasburg for being the consensus best pitcher in the ’09 draft class?
Based on the information we have today
I give him the best chance out of any of his peers of being the consensus best pitcher in the ‘09 draft class. The reason he’s the consensus top pick is that he’s the best pitcher – by a horrifically large margin – in his class. That said, he’s a pitcher. Injury can happen. Hitters can figure out his stuff. Maybe he loses a few mph off his fastball over the course of a full season and becomes mortal. Or maybe he gets pushed too hard, too fast, and falls apart physically by the 120 IP mark. He can lose it mentally under the tremendous expectations already being heaped on him. Maybe he never quite clicks and his best seasons look like the best we’ve seen from Felix, doomed to a label of unlimited potential without the execution to meet it.
The game of what if is pretty pointless. Anything could happen. Barring a substantial injury, he IS the #1 pitcher in his draft class come June. He could enjoy meteoric success or suffer epic fails. Some unknown in his draft class taken in the 27th round could go on to be a 5-time Cy Young winner after learning a new pitch or getting their personal life together or (insert FSN All Access heartwarming story here).
Free Stephen "Awesome" Strasburg!
by seattlecougar on Mar 27, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
OK.
But I think johnbai was pointing out the surprising number of can’t miss #1 guys who, for a variety of reasons, don’t really work out. Injuries are one obvious reason, sure. But they’re not the only reason.
Just look at the consensus ‘best’ pitcher in each draft class – and yes, there’s tons of room for disagreement on who that is in many years – and see how they stack up with others. Why is this? It’s clearly not just injuries.
Of course not
I’m just saying that so much can go wrong, and occasionally right, with pitchers, that there’s no point trying to project how a guy will pan out in the lens of history 5, 10, 25 years down the road. When you’re picking a pitcher, you go with the best bet and know it’s still only a crapshoot. If I’m playing dice, I know my best odds are that a 7 will roll – even if the odds are only 1:6.
Strasburg may or may not be the best pitcher in his class. But as of today, and likely as of June, he has the best chance to be that guy. There are hundreds of pitchers taken every draft. A fraction see the majors, even fewer become regulars or all stars.
Rather than say consensus #1, why not consensus #1-10? or 1-25? There’s no consistent pattern that says “the guys considered #s X through Y pan out the best”. But, in general, more top pitchers come from the top end of the draft than the bottom. Consider the ones who don’t the exceptions who prove the rule.
Even money, do I think in 20 years Strasburg or someone not named Strasburg will be considered the best? I’ll take the rest of the field every time. Too many variables not to.
Free Stephen "Awesome" Strasburg!
by seattlecougar on Mar 27, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions
That's a good point, and I would still draft him,
but it’s stuff like this that leads reasonable people to go ‘fuck it’ and draft a hitter.
Yes, I'm not talking about this draft in particular,
but there’s got to be a point that you take a lesser hitter over a higher ceiling pitcher. The Rays clearly did just that with Longo – another draft class where the hitters supposedly sucked.
Keep collecting these tidbits of information and send them to the Nationals a week before the draft.
I like your thought process and we need the Nationals to buy into it by the time they select the first pick.
But the thing about drafts is you have to take 1 person
10 years from now it’s possible that someone from this draft class other than Strasburg will prove to be the better pitcher. But that doesn’t have any bearing on how you go about picking someone and projecting them for future success.
Yes, taking a different pitcher in this draft class would be unfathomably dumb.
It just might lead some to choose a hitter instead. Are you listening, Washington?
I really want Dustin Ackley to go insane
If he goes nuts and Washington bites, WHEEEEEEE Strasburg. If they don’t, whee Ackley
by Graham MacAree on Mar 27, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah I'm an Ackley Fan
For partially the same reason. I hope he creates a legitimate alternative for the cheapo Nats. And also, if he shows some more power and is able to play in the OF, maybe he becomes a worthy #2 pick for the M’s. Either way it’s a win-win if Ackley blows up the last 2/3 of this season.
My take on pitchers is this:
Stuff rules everything in terms of ranking amateurs.
They can bust based on a few mechanisms, ranked in descending order of impact.
1) Injuries. Kills careers.
2) Command problems. Turns plus stuff into something that just about lets a pitcher survive in the league for a while.
3) Inability to adapt to real hitters. Felix-type bust – good pitcher but does not live up to potential.
With Strasburg, we’re pretty unlikely to see the latter two. His control could always go Rick Ankiel on everyone, but for the most part he’s good about limiting balls, and he’s supposed to be one of the smartest college athletes around, which speaks to his ability to adapt, etc. Injuries are a real risk, though.
For my money, Strasburg is one of two things – an injury bust or a legit #1 pitcher in the bigs.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 27, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I can agree with this.
I guess part of the ‘problem’ if you can call it that is the relatively low weight teams seem to have placed on pure stuff. That’s not the case with HS picks, and it hasn’t been true across the board, but it’s somewhat noticeable.
With 2) it’s just sort of odd the way these just sort of appear in pitchers – and no, you don’t have to go full Ankiel, but a guy like Ryan Wagner’s an example of this. Todd Van Poppel, too.
I think drafting someone other than Strasburg is stupid, but I can see him pitching for a long time without injury and yet somehow NOT being a legit #1 pitcher. I don’t know what odds I’d put on that, but it’s a possibility. Andrew Miller didn’t have anywhere near the hype, but I think people would be pretty amazed that he’s a fringe starter at this point. Yes, he’s young, but….
In defence of Strasburg, Miller had nowhere near his stuff or his results.
by Graham MacAree on Mar 27, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions
And Miller's stuff is a fraction of what it used to be anyway
by Jeff Sullivan on Mar 27, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh, I totally agree with that
But I think a lot of people would still be surprised that he hasn’t panned out in comparison to, oh, Brandon Morrow or Kershaw (to say nothing of Lincecum).
And it’s one example of teams not going for pure stuff. Jeff believes his stuff is now demonstrably worse, and it might be, but he threw mainly in the low 90s in college…. does he not have any movement of the 2 seamer anymore? That seems odd.
You can make one for 2006-2008 in the bigs though
by Graham MacAree on Mar 27, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
If he went Ankiel on everyone you'd still bottom out at a pretty decent right fielder.
by JI on Mar 27, 2009 4:27 PM PDT up reply actions
How the fuck was Ankiel a second round pick?
Boras?
by JI on Mar 27, 2009 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Hmm, I honestly don't know
Ankiel attended Port St. Lucie High School in Florida, where he went 11–1 with a 0.47 ERA during his senior season, striking out 162 batters in 74.0 innings pitched, and was named the High School Player of the Year by USA Today in 1997. He was also a 1st Team High School All-American pitcher.
Ankiel signed with the Cardinals straight out of high school and was given a $2.5 million signing bonus, the fifth-highest ever given to an amateur player. In 1998, he was Carolina League All-Star starting pitcher, Baseball America’s first team Minor League All-Star starting pitcher, voted the best pitching prospect in both the Carolina and Midwest leagues, and was Cardinals Minor League Player of the Year. That year he led all minor league pitchers in strikouts, with 222.1
It’s not like he’s an asshole or anything, and I know he comes from a rough background, but he was also getting major leaguers out in his age 19 season. I’d be interested to know why… my guess is signability.
Is the game on radio today?
"Fights begin, finger prints are took, days is lost, bail is made, court dates are ignored, cycle is repeated."
So annoying
I realize that today is the last day of the media blackout on Spring Training games, but I will spend today bitching about it nonetheless.
On a positive note, all the games will be broadcast on the radio starting tomorrow.
And is it me, or are there a lot fewer 7 PM starts this year or what? I’ve been looking for last years scheduled start times to compare, but I’m not finding anything.
Talking about the regular season or spring training?
Regular season, this year we have 8, which feels about on par from last year.
Free Stephen "Awesome" Strasburg!
by seattlecougar on Mar 27, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Wow, that made no sense
This year we have 8 home games that start before 7pm. Last year I think we had 6 or 7.
Free Stephen "Awesome" Strasburg!
by seattlecougar on Mar 27, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Dude. 6 Walks Today
Bedard must have had some serious control issues.
I don't think it's a big deal personally, unless he is injured
I just don’t think the media is going to feel the same way.
And MLB.com was initially wrong
Bedard “only” had 4 walks. Morrow came in and walked two (which initially got attributed to Bedard)
Delgado and Kelley
Those two guys had decent numbers in relief today. They may make the team based simply on the fact that Wak needs to find 7 warm bodies who have gotten any outs this Spring. And that isn’t easy to do.
Delgado on the team pretty much means Batista's cut.
And while I think we’d all be OK with that, it would take some cojones from Wak/Z. We’ll see.
I think he'll do it
Because I think Wak (and Jack) want to make an example out of somebody. Whether it’s Yuni for not taking walks (or knowing how many strikes there are) or some of the veteran pitchers who suck ass.
The new crew probably want everyone to realize the old BS from the last few years is over. As such, cutting a piece of garbage like Batista might be forthcoming.
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