On Spring Surprises

by Jeff on Mar 18, 2009 4:23 PM PDT in The More You Know Comment 36 comments

One of the brightest stars so far - at least as far as the coaching staff is concerned - has been Chris Jakubauskas, a converted outfielder who toiled in the Indy Leagues before signing with the Mariners and pitching well in West Tennessee and Tacoma. He's become something of a sleeper to break camp with the M's based on his ability to throw strikes. The issue is that that's kind of all he does. Among 123 starters with at least 100 xOuts in the PCL last year, Jakubauskas' 65.8% strike rate was a full standard deviation above average, but his ability to induce groundballs was middle-of-the-pack and his 5.8% swinging strike rate came in 120th, between Joe Woerman and Tyler Lumsden. That's 5.8% against AAA competition, with a league average of 8.8%. That's bad.

Jakubauskas throws enough strikes and has a good enough changeup to keep from embarrassing himself on a bigger stage, but realistically, there's nothing special about him, and his upside is far lower than that of many of our other bullpen candidates. He's a good story who just isn't good enough. Which might be for the best, since I'm already damn tired of hearing jokes about his name. It's long. We get it. You're more predictable than Friends.

Chris Shelton has 13 hits and three homers in 25 at bats so far this month, and is doing a wonderful job of securing a roster spot as the other half of the 1B platoon. Shelton was always the favorite, but unless he takes a nasty turn for the worse over these next couple weeks, at this point he's all but a guarantee. That's good news for ginger people. Don't be alarmed by Shelton's reverse platoon splits in the Majors - the samples are small, reverse platoon splits don't really exist, and he was normal in the minors. Going forward, we can say with near-absolute certainty that Shelton is a more productive bat against lefties than he is against righties. This platoon isn't going to light anyone's hair on fire with its awesomeness, but it ought to be solid.

All I'm going to say about Matt Tuiasosopo is that you better hope he's almost ready, since there's pretty much no way that Beltre re-signs after the season. It really is remarkable how well Tui has bounced back from his .185/.259/.218 stint in AA a few years ago. Say what you will about the many questionable operating philosophies of the Bill Bavasi administration, but the whole rush-prospects-until-they-fail thing seems to have worked out okay, all things considered.

Felix has yet to allow a run so far in the WBC, which is good. But he's walked six batters in 8.2 innings, which is bad. He only threw 57% fastballs against Puerto Rico the other day, which is good. Only 53% of those fastballs were strikes, which is bad.

Carlos Silva has only allowed one run in WBC play, but then Carlos Silva has thrown 11 innings against Italy and the Netherlands.

Jose Lopez, Endy Chavez, Ichiro, and Kenji Johjima are a combined 27-70 in the WBC with 13 extra-base hits. Ichiro's been the worst. Lopez has just been flipping out, with five doubles, two homers, and one single that he tried to stretch into a double (nearly succeeding). He also has three walks and zero strikeouts as part of a talented lineup. I don't know how much to read into this, if at all, but what I can say for sure is that this can't possibly be bad news. A Jose Lopez breakout season at the plate would be a godsend to a Mariners team that's right on the verge of making the AL West awfully interesting.

Of all the Mariner pitchers in camp, none have performed better than Randy Messenger. Which is pretty convincing evidence of why ST stats are retarded. But anyway, Messenger's a four-pitch righty with a straight fastball, and because his change isn't very good, he uses his curveball instead as his primary offspeed pitch to lefties. A contact guy who doesn't keep the ball on the ground, Messenger's only as good as his ability to stay in the zone, and while his 2008 was solid in that regard (in both the Majors and AAA), his strike-throwing track record is barely above average. It's interesting that his top PITCHf/x similary score is the doesn't-suck Ricky Nolasco. Messenger's a nobody reliever with 174.1 innings under his belt as a nobody reliever, and nothing he does this spring short of throwing 100 miles per hour somehow should be able to get him a roster spot. That he looks like a total douche can't be helping him either.

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So, Shelton is ahead in the 1B platoon race with Sweeney?

Or will both likely make the team, Sweeney being the designated pinch-hitter?

by Wilder. on Mar 18, 2009 4:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Baker gives the edge to Shelton, and one or the other making the 25, not both.

Link.

by lemonverbena on Mar 18, 2009 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for this.

I keep an eye on Geoff’s work, but sometimes I miss a few things.

by Wilder. on Mar 18, 2009 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt Sweeney is making the roster.

It’s more likely he retires after the spring.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Mar 18, 2009 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

All I’m going to say about Matt Tuiasosopo is that you better hope he’s almost ready, since there’s pretty much no way that Beltre re-signs after the season.

The CW has Beltre traded by July… you agree? Suitors?

by lemonverbena on Mar 18, 2009 4:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Troy Glaus will be available!

by JI on Mar 18, 2009 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about Houston? Blum at 35 with his .240/14/53 08’ stats are on the decline and with Aaron Boone out of the picture, I think the Stros would make a push for Beltre if Tejada can stay out of the clink and they are within arms length of the Cubs by July, if not sooner.

by oneseasoncom on Mar 18, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather use Cedeno

by JI on Mar 18, 2009 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What do they have to offer, though?

I haven’t heard much about their farm system, and aren’t they hurting for money?

Throw the snacks in the bag and I'm ghost like Swayze!
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Mar 18, 2009 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They have the worst farm system in baseball.

by acblue on Mar 19, 2009 2:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did someone say Jakubauskas?

The tRA view really is interesting. Compare his meh tRA stats to his MLE in FIP, which is a more than decent 4.19.

Anyway, the 5.8% swinging strike rate only includes starts, and misses his 16% as a reliever (and a tRA of 0.00!). I think we need to blend the two, but I can’t figure out how to do that.

Jakubauskas has a change-up that’s quite good at times, and I’d love to see him work on it a bit more. I think he’s great SP depth at AAA, the kind of thing this org has lacked for a while. If Olson and Vargas continue to struggle, I think Jakubauskas could surprise. And by surprise, I’m thinking of a FIP in the 4.6-4.8 range, which would come in pretty handy. As I said at USSM, his success this spring doesn’t ‘look’ like his success last year, and that’s a little weird. He’s not a pure pitch-to-contact guy, which he has been in Arizona.

Tui – I’ve been encouraged, but I’m still a bit worried. Here’s hoping he does what Clement did to the PCL last year.

Chris Shelton is awesome, and the 1B platoon is awesome as well. I wonder what they do with Sweeney? Does he accept a minor league assignment due to family ties in the area?

by marc w on Mar 18, 2009 4:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

A straight blend yields a swinging strike rate of 7.2%

And we can’t really do a straight blend.

I dunno. I can see him being useful, but only really in a Silva-without-the-groundballs kind of way, and…eh, it’s hard to get excited.

by Jeff on Mar 18, 2009 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

by section331 on Mar 18, 2009 5:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Griffey has been relegated to DH for Seattle while recovering from offseason knee surgery. The 39-year-old has said he hopes to play in the outfield regularly once the season begins.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Mar 18, 2009 6:16 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That's been said many times for about a month.

by Matthew on Mar 18, 2009 6:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Until there is a direct quote of him saying "I want to play the outfield multiple times a week"

I assume he’ll be ok with getting 30ish games in the field all year.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Mar 18, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

by pdb on Mar 19, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

All I’m going to say about Matt Tuiasosopo is that you better hope he’s almost ready, since there’s pretty much no way that Beltre re-signs after the season. It really is remarkable how well Tui has bounced back from his .185/.259/.218 stint in AA a few years ago. Say what you will about the many questionable operating philosophies of the Bill Bavasi administration, but the whole rush-prospects-until-they-fail thing seems to have worked out okay, all things considered.

Call me when Jeff Clement starts hitting major league pitching. (.668 OPS in AAA in 2006)

by Trev on Mar 18, 2009 6:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

You going to give us a number?

by Wilder. on Mar 18, 2009 6:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And an OPS of 0.866 in AAA in 2007 and 1.137 in 2008.

Whats the point of citing OPS from 2 years ago?

There are no good individual basketball statistics.
54!

by joof on Mar 18, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If it supports your argument, run with it.

Ignore all other facts.

by Teej on Mar 19, 2009 12:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pujols hit .214/.267/.286 at AAA in 2000.

He obviously can’t hit major league pitching.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Mar 19, 2009 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Benzoate

Felix has yet to allow a run so far in the WBC, which is good. But he’s walked six batters in 8.2 innings, which is bad. He only threw 57% fastballs against Puerto Rico the other day, which is good. Only 53% of those fastballs were strikes, which is bad.

Does Felix contain potassium benzoate?

by robbbbbb on Mar 19, 2009 12:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs