Brandon Morrow's 2009 Workload

by Matthew on Mar 17, 2009 9:04 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

While we have little concrete predictive ability in anticipating injuries based on a pitcher's mechanics, using a pitcher's workload as a predictive engine shows much better, though still loose at best, results. Namely, large increases in pitches in one year seem to increase the chance for injury in the next. That makes intutive sense from just a workout perspective. If you had typically been running three miles a day and then decided one morning to go out and run a full marathon, you might get through it, but the next day when you went to go running, you might find yourself more likely to be sore.

In other words, it's always a good idea to build up your strength levels gradually rather than attempting to do it in large chunks. With pitchers, we generally measure that in innings pitched (though some metric based on number of pitches, pitches per inning and pitches weighted by LI would be better equipped to measure stress). The general rule is that you want pitchers to take no more than 40 IP leaps from year to year.

In 2007, pitching exclusively out of the bullpen, Brandon Morrow threw 63.1 innings. Last year, in a mix of relief and starting, Morrow recorded 95.1 innings. Immediately you should see why expecting Morrow to log anything close to 200 innings this year wouldn't be a great hope to rest on. This is further exacerbated by Morrow's use in college, where he didn't spend a lot of time starting until 2006, a year in which he collectively pitches 112.2 innings.

Ignoring 2006, we would think that 130 innings or so would be the max for Morrow in 2009. That appears to be a fair estimate. Factoring 2006 in, there might be some clues that his body would adjust to 150 or so innings without too much trouble, but that is probably the limit. Couple Morrow's young age - he turns 25 in late July - with the injury he already showed this Spring, (which, by the way, he now says is behind him, giving him a shot at breaking camp in the rotation) and it seems wise to be rather cautious with Morrow's workload this season.

Tweet Comment 20 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

30 5 inning starts?

Probably not.

by JI on Mar 17, 2009 9:30 AM PDT reply actions

That's how Scott Kamir does it (if you can get 30 starts out of him).

by abender20 on Mar 17, 2009 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions

rawr

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?share=1&n1=kazmisc01&year=2008&t=p#100:105:sum

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Mar 17, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions

Or...

5.63 innings per start.

by abender20 on Mar 17, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Morrow also pitched something like 40 innings

in Venezuela in 2007 if memory serves, as well as about 30 getting stretched out in the minors last summer. So you could call it 120 or 150 for 2008. But that doesn’t really affect the overall point that he’s not going to come anywhere near 200 without risking grave injury.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 17, 2009 9:32 AM PDT reply actions

I counted minor league innings.

by Matthew on Mar 17, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions

Yes, but not winter leagues (apparently)

BR’s right that he had 31 IP in Venezuela in 2007 on top of his 63 in Seattle. And yes, you could add the 31.333 IP for Lara to 2007 or to 2008; it’s right in between.

(And yes, the overall point stands).

by marc w on Mar 17, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions

I figure winter leagues are basically in place of normal off season workouts.

by Matthew on Mar 17, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Fair enough.

I have to think they’re a bit higher stress than a workout, but perhaps not at the level approaching a random AA inning. Who knows.

by marc w on Mar 17, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions

My mistake

by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 17, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions

So this probably means RRS will be seeing significant time starting yes?

by OlSalty on Mar 17, 2009 9:33 AM PDT reply actions

I just think it means that Morrow's likely to be the best 5th starter in the AL...

The team has already said they’re looking at putting him at the back of the rotation. That way he can skip the occasional start when necessary while keeping Felix and Bedard pitching every 5th day.

by CMC_Stags on Mar 17, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions

Though I think RRS starts the season either in AAA as a starter...

or in the ’pen as the long man. Then he would step in as a spot starter whenever there is an injury. I think starting in AAA makes more sense in the short term since the team needs to shake out the rest of the bullpen and that last spot on the 25 could be used for Tyler Walker or someone else until you need to call RRS up.

Then again, I think RRS is on his last option, so maybe you start him in the pen to keep that option. I’m just not sure what’s in the team’s best interest: starting RRS in AAA so he’s ready to come up full time when called on at the cost of his last option or having him pitch long-relief at the beginning of the season with the big-league team and retaining that last option.

by CMC_Stags on Mar 17, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions

With Morrow only turning 25 in July, I think using him sparingly would be best.

Figure that pitchers normally age differently than hitters, as pitching at 40 is waaaaay different than hitting at 40. Why rush Morrow when he could be a solid pitcher for a very long time?

Throw the snacks in the bag and I'm ghost like Swayze!
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Mar 17, 2009 10:38 AM PDT reply actions