The Value of Saving Throws at 1B
by Matthew on Feb 9, 2009 9:31 AM PST
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PrintThis topic was discussed recently here in the comments somewhere and I remembered reading some research on it, but not having a link handy. Well, now I/we do, thanks to MGL.
It's not the best since it doesn't list all qualifying first basemen, but it suits the purpose here because it does list Sexson, under the list of best run savers at +2.5 runs per 1000 throws receieved, which is about what a full season entails.
Overall, the spread from best to worst is eight runs, a range that seems plausible. Also be sure to notice the breakdown by height and dexterity. Interesting stuff.
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That is a very interesting read.
It’s exciting to see the quantification of some of the defensive spectrum outside of range (throwing value as well). Are these ancillary defensive stats valid enough to merit inclusion into WAR?
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The impact of this isn't significant enough to really factor in
You’re talking about a max of just a couple runs for any given player. But I suppose if you’re trying to be as precise as possible, then sure, go to town. You can also do the same with outfielder arms.
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 9, 2009 10:00 AM PST up reply actions
Sure, it's a few runs here or there, but for Berkman it's roughly 4 wins over the course of a season.
A stat capable of demonstrating swings of almost half a win is surely worth factoring in, right?
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4 runs is worth a couple million dollars on the free agent market.
It seems somewhat significant to me.
But at that kind of level, using a metric that has a big admitted flaw in the methodology
you’re hanging out with a lot of the noise and little of the signal.
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 9, 2009 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, and this metric has a major in that you can only compare guys who fielded throws from the same fielders.
I’m just saying that if the metric is right about there being about a 4-6 run spread in throw saving ability, that piece of a first basemen’s game can add or subtract $2-$3 million from his true value. Because of that, I think the ideal WAR formula would include it, we just aren’t there. +/- 4 runs is still significant though.
I agree with you
The ideal WAR equation should include as much as it possibly can. With things like this, though, the magnitudes are so small that you can be forgiven for leaving them out.
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 9, 2009 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
Sexson may save a couple of runs on throws, but he gives it right back with his range.
Interesting to see the work done on this. It would appear we don’t need to worry too much about the hoopla surrounding a first baseman’s ability to save throwing errors. Although, with Yuni throwing all of those sailing balls over to first base, I wouldn’t doubt Sexson saved 40 runs per season. Other shortstops at least put the ball into the ground to give his man a chance.
I was always impressed when Yuni managed to throw one over Sexson's head.
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Well, that's pretty cool.
Although after reading it I think it may have been condensed to The Value of Saving Throws at 1B: not much.
Nevertheless, good on him for doing the work and now we know, so there. One thing I wonder about is whether using such a broad range (9 years!) will get you player seasons that could span a significant loss of athletic ability and therefore talent. You do have to use a broad range though, else it’s nearly impossible to get a good number of ‘matched throws’. The most telling result for me is not any of the individual rankings, but the overall variation. When i read stuff like this the conclusion I come to is usually there are guys who are bad at catching bad throws, and guys who are good at it, and the difference between them is about 6 throws per season, in other words negligible.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 9, 2009 10:46 AM PST reply actions
I'm not convinced that the ability to pick throws from the dirt is a skill that really ages.
It strikes me as far more a technical skill than an athletic one. And obviously, you don’t lose your height either.
This is just me guessing
but it seems to me that picking throws from the dirt could actually be a skill that ages, if you don’t keep yourself in shape and flexible as you get older. Look at Griffey – he’s not an infielder, so obviously he’s not called on to dig throws out of the dirt, but I’d be willing to bet he doesn’t bend and flex like he did 10 years ago. I haven’t followed Omar Vizquel’s career in the last few years except in that he still has one, so he may be an exception, but it seems that the older you get the less mobile you may be.
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I was actually in the process of writing up something similar.
These guys keep themselves in such great shape, but I’d bet that, until you get near Julio Franco age, the slight loss of flexibility and quickness is compensated for with an increase in “experience”
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Yes, but unlike say reaction timing,
those aging properties are largely under the person’s control. If you commit to a stretching routine, you can stay quite flexible your whole life. And there really isn’t much mobility coming to play in picking throws off the ground.
Maybe
Seems like getting to throws in the dirt requires a lot of flexibility and balance (so as to not lose the bag in the process) which could age. I dunno, I don’t want to criticize the methods because it’s more and better than anything I’ve ever done to look at anything baseball related. But there are flaws, and when the range is so small the method has to be all the more precise.
Not that a single season’s data means anything here, but I’d be curious what the season to season variation is for an individual’s throws saved. If the difference between best and worst is ~6-7, seems like there could be a lot of years when the Pujols and Sexsons are matched by the Vaughns and Swishers.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Feb 9, 2009 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
I've played 1B for years.
It’s definitely a technical skill. There’s a bit of athletic ability involved, yes, but it’s mostly quick reactions and being able to judge hops.
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Hey Thanks for posting this!
I think I was the one who originally asked about this, or maybe I’m just remembering narcissistically.
Anyway, cool read. I’ve always thought this was an interesting case for evaluating first basemen. I’ve played 1B from the time I was 6 until today in my grumbly out of shape young professional’s league. I remember idolizing Alvin Davis as a kid and later being so terribly disappointed with how Tino didn’t really have the same scooping instinct or the hops to get up the ladder on a Joey Cora skyrocket. But then again, maybe I was just biased against right-handed first basemen.
I imagine there would be an interesting conflation effect you could study whereby the skill of a first baseman alters the perceived skill of his infield, in much the same way people have been talking about our improved outfield helping make Washburn appear better.
Anyway, thanks for posting, very cool.
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