Best Mariner Of All Time - WAR Approach

by Jeff on Feb 5, 2009 1:20 PM PST in The More You Know Comment 68 comments

Given:

-these historical positional adjustments are accurate

-2.33 win replacement level adjustment

-0.380 win percentage for a replacement-level starting pitcher

-these historical league average wOBAs and scalings

-Edgar was -10 as as defensive third baseman

-Alex Rodriguez was +10 as a defensive shortstop

-Ken Griffey Jr. was +5 as as defensive center fielder

-Jay Buhner was +0 as a defensive corner outfielder

-Ichiro has been +0 as a defensive center fielder and +10 as a defensive right fielder

-a "full season" is any in which the player was expected to be a Major League regular, and includes seasons in which the player got injured

-1994 and 1995 prorated to 162-game seasons

Alex Rodriguez:

.402 wOBA as a Mariner, against a .334 weighted and park-adjusted league average. 40.3 WAR accumulated over seven seasons; 40.1 WAR accumulated over five full seasons, with 1996 standing out as his best. +8.0 wins per season when playing as a regular between 1996-2000. +8.0 WAR overall per 700 plate appearances.

Ken Griffey Jr:

.403 wOBA as a Mariner, against a .327 weighted and park-adjusted league average. 71.6 WAR accumulated over 11 seasons, all of them as a regular, with 1994 standing out as his best. +6.5 wins per season between 1989-1999. +7.2 WAR overall per 700 plate appearances.

Edgar Martinez:

.405 wOBA as a Mariner, against a .327 weighted and park-adjusted league average. 65.8 WAR accumulated over 18 seasons; 65.2 WAR accumulated over 15 full seasons, with 1995 standing out as his best. +4.3 wins per season when playing as a regular between 1990-2004. +4.8 WAR overall per 700 plate appearances.

Jay Buhner:

.371 wOBA as a Mariner, against a .328 weighted and park-adjusted league average. 34.9 WAR accumulated over 14 seasons; 31.2 WAR accumulated over ten full seasons, with 1994 standing out as his best. +3.1 wins per season when playing as a regular between 1991-2000. +4.0 WAR overall per 700 plate appearances. Jay got injured a lot.

Ichiro:

.350 wOBA as a Mariner, against a .324 weighted and park-adjusted league average. 37.5 WAR accumulated over eight seasons, all of them as a regular, with 2004 standing out as his best. +4.7 wins per season between 2001-2008. +4.4 WAR overall per 700 plate appearances.

Randy Johnson:

3.53 ERA as a Mariner, against a 4.51 weighted and park-adjusted league average (for starting pitchers). 50.6 WAR accumulated over ten seasons; 46.3 WAR accumulated over eight full seasons, with 1995 standing out as his best. +5.8 wins per season when pitching as a regular between 1990-1997. +5.9 WAR overall per 225 innings.

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Overall:

This isn't a perfect analysis. There's a lot in there with which you've every right to quibble. However, what's clear is that, when looking through this sort of lens, Alex Rodriguez is far and away the best Mariner of all time, and no little adjustments are going to make up the gap between him and the next player on the list. And that was with me being conservative on the defensive front. There's never been any evidence of Griffey having been a plus defender, and UZR called A-Rod a +13 defensive shortstop between 2000-2003, so if we change the numbers in the analysis to +0 for Griffey as a CF and +15 for A-Rod as an SS, then the gap grows even wider.

Even if you select each player's five best seasons (and keep in mind that A-Rod only had five full seasons in Seattle), you come out with the following:

Griffey: +41.4 WAR
A-Rod: +40.1
Randy: +37.3
Edgar: +32.2
Ichiro: +26.2
Buhner: +21.3
Five best individual seasons selected from Griffey/Randy/Edgar/Ichiro/Buhner overall pool: +45.1 WAR

Simply put, Alex Rodriguez is the best player in Mariners history. Now, whether or not he's the greatest player in Mariners history (assuming you have different definitions of "best" and "greatest") is up to how you weight things like character and team loyalty, but I'm not even going to try to go there. For purposes of this post, all I care about is establishing the fact that A-Rod is the best player ever to don a Mariner uniform. No matter what you think of him now, try to not let it tarnish your memories of his time in Seattle, because no star in team history has ever shined as consistently bright.

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As far as best individual seasons are concerned, I can't decide between A-Rod's 1996, A-Rod's 2000, and RJ's 1995.On the one hand, A-Rod OPS'd 1.045 and 1.026 as a plus defensive shortstop, but on the other, Randy posted a 2.48 ERA and a mind-boggling 2.08 FIP over 214.1 innings (in a shortened season). I'm inclined to give the nod to Randy, since he sustained his dominance into the playoffs and A-Rod's seasons were aided by inflated BABIPs, but then Randy's season was helped by an unsustainable home run rate, so I'm still stuck. I guess all that really matters is that all three seasons were unfathomably amazing, on the order of 10+ wins above replacement. According to Fangraphs, no one in baseball has posted a 10+ WAR season since Barry Bonds (and Adrian Beltre) in 2004.

The Mariners may not have any championship banners hanging from the roof, but for the better part of a decade, they were able to field some of the greatest talent in the universe. It's hindsight, it's hard not to feel a little bit blessed.

Fun fact: Randy's .384 OPS allowed against left-handed hitters in 1995 was half the league average.

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Comments

My how time changes things.

I remember in ‘04 thinking that the Bonds vs. Beltre debate wasn’t even really a debate. I though Bonds deserved the MVP and it wasn’t even particularly close.

Now looking back, Beltre probably deserved that award, or at least it was a lot closer than I thought it was back then.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Feb 5, 2009 1:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I don't know how many others went through an A-Rod hating phase like I did,

and even when he was in Seattle, I would have none of the idea that A-Rod was better than Junior. Looking back at it all, I really took the talent we had on this team for granted back in my casual fan days (but give me a break, I was still a preteen). I really wish I could go back and enjoy the times for what they really were instead of living in my preconceived notions. A-Rod is probably the best, most exciting player I’ll ever have had the pleasure of watching every day, and I wasted a lot of it.

It’s probably why I love Felix so much and root for him to succeed.

by Double06 on Feb 5, 2009 1:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

And the Griffey honks invade in 5...4... 3...

by JI on Feb 5, 2009 2:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

What

The good thing about bringing back Griffey would be selling out Safeco every game. Because everyone would buy tickets just to see Griffey. Am I right? Wait. What?

by zeeehjee on Feb 5, 2009 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I love Griffey

by seattlebruin on Feb 5, 2009 5:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wish we had better defensive metrics back then.

My personal guess is more like this.

-Edgar was -5 as as defensive third baseman

-Alex Rodriguez was 0<x<+5 as a defensive shortstop

-Ken Griffey Jr. was +0 as as defensive center fielder

-Jay Buhner was +0 as a defensive corner outfielder

by Sec 108 on Feb 5, 2009 2:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'd think that A-Rod was, at absolute worst, 0 < x < +10

He was (and is) just tremendously gifted.

by Jeff on Feb 5, 2009 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Just from my vantage point back in the day.

Guillen was a better SS than he was in 2000. He was waaay better than Fermin or Sojo though. I’m not talking about talent so much as he played a very cautious SS which hurt his defensive value.

I do agree that he was the most valuable player we ever saw. No one was more fun to watch than RJ though.

by Sec 108 on Feb 5, 2009 2:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There's a reason why RJ is the player I always loved most.

I don’t know that any Mariner will ever approach that level of observational awesome.

Also, if Felix Fermin was bad at defense, then holy crap was he ever a worthless sack of crap.

by Jeff on Feb 5, 2009 2:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I am pretty sure that RJ with an 0-2 count will always be my favorite.

The anticipation was always amazing. Is it at their head or is it Mr. Snappy and the hitter bails?

Fermin may be the worst everyday player ever from my perspective. I have to admit that he followed Omar though and no one can look good replacing Omar.

by Sec 108 on Feb 5, 2009 3:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I prefer RJ as well

It just seemed lik every fifth game we were absolutely guaranteed a win.

by zeeehjee on Feb 5, 2009 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll always remember Fermin's one home run

in Kansas City.

You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.

by bluemax on Feb 5, 2009 5:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

watching plays in center field in the 90's

I always thought that Jr. was better than the other center fielder 75% of the games. Lofton, Devon White, Shawn Green, and in the late 90’s Jim Edmonds and (maybe Bernie Williams) were all better. I can’t even name many of the other starters back then. But when I was watching the games I generaly felt like center field defense was an advantage. What that means in projected WAR I don’t know.

by Lantern on Feb 5, 2009 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure Lofton was better. Shit, David Hulse was a better CF.

by Sec 108 on Feb 5, 2009 3:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If A-Rod was +10 right before he moved to third

than he was probably even better when he was younger.

by JI on Feb 5, 2009 8:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe true, and I have thought about this since your comment.

Maybe the 2 years of SS UZR data we have on him is not enough. At 3B he is well below 10 which is counterintuitive. I would be willing to switch my guess from +5<x<10, but I never would have given him more than that unless the SS of his day were really that bad compared to him.

by Sec 108 on Feb 8, 2009 9:16 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He is ~+1 lifetime at third

by JI on Feb 8, 2009 9:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We have four years of shortstop data for A-Rod

Here you can find 2000-2003 UZR.

by Jeff on Feb 8, 2009 12:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I realize defensive metrics were pretty primitive when Griffey was in his prime

But I would still have to assume he was better than a +5 center fielder. He was very athletic, fast (not ridiculous speed, but he covered ground in a hurry) and he almost always took perfect routes to the ball. By the time UZR was around, he had fallen off a cliff because his legs fell apart from all the injuries.

It’s not enough to make up the difference in value between A-Rod and Griffey, but he was a great defender in his prime and I just don’t think you’re giving him enough credit for that.

by Vatinius on Feb 5, 2009 2:51 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It's sort of always going to be the unanswerable question

I mean, UZR had him as +12 in 2000, but then -29 in 2001 and -13 overall 2000-2003, so it’s hard to get him pinpointed. You can call him a +10 if you want and I won’t complain, but being +10 in center field is really hard, and I thought +5 was being kind.

by Jeff on Feb 5, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh, he probably would've peaked as a defender in the mid 90s, so his drop-off from 2001 on doesn't bother me.

I know the advanced metrics never really liked him, but the advanced metrics just weren’t advanced then.
I’m perfectly comfortable with +5.

There were a hell of a lot of good CFs back then, and that may have made it hard to get to +10, but just because the average was high doesn’t mean he wasn’t a hell of a defender. It’s just that Devon White was amazing.

by marc w on Feb 5, 2009 3:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ichiro is at 0

Observationally, would you really put Griffey that much better than Ichiro defensively? I do have to say though (and I hate to because I don’t want to be pegged as an unconditional Griffey lover), just looking over the seasons, that Griffey’s 93/94 seasons were pretty magnificent and presumably at his peak defensive capability. Plus he didn’t have overly lucky BABiPs either year (.303 & .313).

by Malcontent1 on Feb 5, 2009 3:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I have Griffey as +8.5 wins in 1993

Fourth-best individual season in Mariners history, I believe, but still a good distance behind A-Rod and Randy.

1994 was a little better, but, y’know, short season and all that.

by Jeff on Feb 5, 2009 3:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

God, to have that much talent on the same team again.

A-Rod: +40.1 WAR
Griffey: +38.6
Randy: +33.6
Edgar: +31.4
Ichiro: +26.2
Buhner: +19.3

Aside from Ichiro, all these guys played together for at least two years. If you figure a 8 for Alex, a 6 for Griffey, a 4.5 for Randy and Edgar, and a 3 for Buhner, that’s 26 wins amongst 5 players. Even if the rest of that team was replacement level, they’d have won as many games as we’re projected to win this season.

I have to ask, then, did those mid 90s teams underachieve a lot? I mean, for 95+ wins you’d only have to squeeze ~18 wins above replacement out of the remaining 20+ players and yet they never got to that mark once. 79 in ’95 (short season, 85 in ’96, 90 in ’97, etc etc etc.

I mean, this is WITH some strong contributions from other players.
’95 had Blowers with a decent offensive season, Tino with a good offensive season, Wilson with a productive catching season, a decent bullpen, etc.

‘96 had Sorrento with at least an average first base season, Moyer’s first day on the job, Mark Whitten’s 140 at bats of insanity, etc

‘97 had Cora’s last horrah, Wilson again solid, Russ Davis’ nice season, Jose Cruz coming in and doing well, Fassero and Moyer coming in and joining the rotation

I dunno, just seems like 2001’s team was the LEAST likely of all the Mariners talented teams to pull off a 100+ win season.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 5, 2009 4:05 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

I hate Bobby Ayala.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Feb 5, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

For these reasons I both love and loathe remembering the 90s.

I can’t believe how much skill we wasted.

by Jeff on Feb 5, 2009 4:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We had some pretty horrible pitching. Especially the bullpen.

by AtomicGarden on Feb 5, 2009 9:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not to be a constant curmudgeon...

…but it seems like a multi-variable statistic like WAR would have an extreme sensitivity to initial conditions and, as such, make a poor definitive metric for this kind of analysis. If I’m doing my math right, in each of those five best seasons selected the players reduce to:
A-Rod: 8.02 WAR/Season
Griffey: 7.72 WAR/Season
Randy: 6.72 WAR/Season
Edgar: 6.28 WAR/Season
Ichiro: 5.24 WAR/Season
Buhner: 3.86 WAR/Season

Some of those margins are awfully small. It seems like a few tweaks on each of the WAR factors could see drastically different results. I’d posit, for example, that if UZR accounted for arm strength (and arm respect by opposing third base coaches) Ichiro’s total might jump a full point.

Anyway, interesting fun read but I remain a little skeptical.

by Andersean on Feb 5, 2009 4:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

You're welcome to remain skeptical

Like I said, it’s not a perfect analysis. But it’s worth pointing out that that five best seasons list isn’t the biggest point of this whole thing. A-Rod was only here for five full seasons, and the purpose of that list was to show that A-Rod, as a Mariner, was better than the other guys at their best as Mariners.

The biggest piece of information is this: A-Rod was worth somewhere between 8-9 wins as a regular. Griffey was worth somewhere between 6-7. That’s a big, big difference.

by Jeff on Feb 5, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll buy that, no problem

based on what we know about defense from UZR, but if the totals here are 8-9 vs 6-7, then I would argue that supports my claim that conflation could be a major source of problems in this analysis. Say the UZR positional adjustments are off by .36 or some other non-round figure (either way) for CF and SS. The numbers would start to converge or diverge very quickly, particularly when we multiply over several seasons.

If I’m misunderstanding how WAR is calculated then please correct me, it’s just that I can’t help but be very very skeptical about multivariable analysis when it comes to defense.

by Andersean on Feb 5, 2009 5:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's put it this way

If we ignore the defensive contribution and just add batting runs to the replacement-level adjustment (which we know to be ~true) and the positional adjustment (which we know to be ~true), then we end up with an average WAR of 7.1 for A-Rod per season as a regular, and 6.2 for Griffey per season as a regular.

Do you think that Griffey was ten runs better as a center fielder than A-Rod was as a shortstop?

If you do, then there you go – Griffey was at least as good, if not better, than A-Rod. If you don’t, though – and this is the way the evidence points – then A-Rod was superior.

by Jeff on Feb 5, 2009 10:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

For the record

I wasn’t arguing that you the overall message of the post was wrong, simply that I was skeptical of the definitive margin. This was the same issue I took with Raul vs. Cirillo.

And nope, I don’t think Griffey was ten runs better defensively at CF than A-Rod at shortstop. I’m just saying I think there is a big difference, semantic though it is, in saying that A-Rod was 1 full WAR over Junior per season, vs. say .4 WAR per season.

Also, did I miss something? Why did Griffey jump to the top of the five-best seasons list? I couldn’t find an annotation for that change but maybe it’s buried somewhere here in the comments.

Again, great post, I was just raising my issue. It is the Internet, after all.

by Andersean on Feb 6, 2009 2:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I noted the change here:

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/2/5/750703/best-mariner-of-all-time-w#12009677

When I prorated Griffey’s stats in 1994 and 1995 out to full 162-game seasons, then he took a narrow lead. Of course, this is based on the assumption that he would’ve maintained the same performance over the theoretical rest of the year, which is questionable, but there you go. Better to give too much credit than too little.

The fact of the matter is that, as a Mariner, A-Rod’s five years were ~as good or better than anyone else’s five best.

by Jeff on Feb 6, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

When you pro-rated Griffey's 1995 out

are you giving him credit for ~85 games played or ~150 games played?

by JI on Feb 7, 2009 12:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you'd have to regress 1994 somewhat

but yes

by JI on Feb 8, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think skepticism is a fine thing, especially where defensive metrics are concerned

but I think you’re overstating your case here. For one thing I think UZR’s predictive value is certainly still up in the air, but I think it’s a pretty decent metric for measuring one year’s worth of value. And I’ve yet to see any proof that the value of arm strength/accuracy is anywhere in the neighborhood of one win.

by acblue on Feb 5, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

MGL says that "true talent" arm ratings should pretty much all fall between -5 < x < +5 runs

That seems reasonable to me.

by Jeff on Feb 5, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

So half a win at the extremes.

I guess that’s in the neighborhood, but I think Ichiro’s arm is overrated so yeah.

by acblue on Feb 6, 2009 12:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Does that account for reputation?

As in the number of runners who don’t advance from first to third or third to home on account of likelihood of being thrown out? Or is just the ability to throw people out?

by Andersean on Feb 6, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Both kills and holds

There will be individual seasons where a player’s arm can be worth a lot or very little, but those tend to be outliers, and things smooth out over time.

by Jeff on Feb 6, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The one I would wonder about...

… would be Buhner as a corner OF as a 0. We’re talking about a guy with basically NO footspeed, but a good arm (6 for 30 lifetime SB, pretty bad 2B to HR ratio, had a year where he hit into a lot of DPs before he got injured, only one year where he was second in the league in assists- he wasn’t really Dave Winfield or Roberto Clemente out there). I think he would be somewhere around average > x > below average but not at the depths of Griffey in the late 00’s.

by eponymous_coward on Feb 5, 2009 5:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

From what I can recall watching him....

He looked at least passable out in RF. Not an elite glove, of course (he was slow as molasses, like you said), but not exactly Ibanez either.

Then again, maybe my perspective is clouded by that awesome “dive into the Fenway bullpen” catch he made.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Feb 5, 2009 5:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's not forget the arm strength work we've been reading about

and Buhner had an absolute cannon

by seattlebruin on Feb 5, 2009 5:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh yes, his arm was a beauty to behold.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Feb 5, 2009 5:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ken Griffey Jr Baseball for SNES disagrees with you on all accounts

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 5, 2009 6:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Damn straight.

I never saw any Alex Rodriguez baseball. Did you? No. Argument over. Griffey was better.

You can't hide from the omnipresent eye.

by Goose on Feb 5, 2009 11:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh I was saying Buhner had fucking amazing defense

You could throw guys out at 1B pretty routinely with him.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 6, 2009 12:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Please note that I just made some adjustments

prorating 1994 and 1995 to full 162-game seasons. It didn’t change much.

by Jeff on Feb 5, 2009 5:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I notice that

Rodriguez’s, Griffey’s, and Ichiro’s WAR per 700 PA are lower than their average WAR. Ichiro makes sense since he routinely has over 700 PAs, but Rodriguez only had 1 season of 700+PA and Griffey had only 3, so why do their WARs decline?

by Malcontent1 on Feb 5, 2009 6:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't have the spreadsheet in front of me so I'll have to re-create it

(It’s on my office computer. I’m a good employee!)

For A-Rod, the WAR per 700 PA includes his ugly small sample performances in 1994 and 1995. The average, meanwhile, is only for the five seasons between 1996-2000.

For Griffey, that’s a typo, and should be 7.2.

by Jeff on Feb 5, 2009 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs