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The Closer Race And The Darkhorse Candidate

While it might be hard to believe these days, Ken Griffey Jr. is not the only Seattle Mariner present at camp. There are actually 62 different players - or there will be, anyway - and many of them are going to be participating in competitions for spots and roles on the Opening Day roster. With this many names collected in the same place, a whole lot of jobs are going to be there for the taking.

One of those jobs is that of the team's closer. With JJ Putz busy badmouthing the clubhouse from 2500 miles away, someone has to take his place, and right now, the race is wide open. There are a ton of relievers hanging out in Peoria, and while five have emerged as the most prominent candidates, five is still a pretty big number that leaves a lot left to be decided. Between Tyler Walker, Miguel Batista, Mark Lowe, Roy Corcoran, and David Aardsma, this is one competition that may very persist until the last day of Spring Training.

When confronted with that list, a lot of people assume that the competition will come down to the first three. Both Batista and Walker have a fair amount of closing experience, and Lowe has electric stuff that includes a sharp slider and an absolute slaughterhouse of a change. Out of that group, most believe the team will select its stopper. Neither Corcoran nor Aardsma seem to be getting much attention.

And that might be fair in the case of Corcoran. As neat as it is to have an extreme groundballer, Corcoran's due for some regression, and he doesn't have anything to offer to lefties. He's a platoon reliever who will thrive most in a role in which his situations can be closely monitored.

In the case of Aardsma, though, I think people might just be looking at his overall numbers and jumping the gun. There's a reason Zduriencik picked him up when he did, and there's a reason he stands as one of the five candidates. David Aardsma has a gifted right arm.

I don't need to sit here and remind everyone that Aardsma can throw 99. We've been over that. But in light of the whole closer competition, I think it's worth pointing out just how similar Aardsma's repertoire is to that of the guy we're trying to replace. Over his three years as the Mariners' closer, JJ sat as a ~70/20/10 fastball/splitter/slider guy, with a heater in the high-90s and a splitter that fell off the table. Aardsma's coming in as something like a 75/15/10 fastball/slider/splitter guy with the same sort of velocity and movement. In PITCHf/x terms:

Putz (2007)
Aardsma (2008)
Movement (x) Movement (z) Movement (x) Movement (z)
Fastball -4.9 9.2 -4.7 11.8
Slider 2.3 2.3 1.3 1.9
Splitter -4.8 5.4 -5.7 4.8

Aardsma's fastball is straighter, but it's equally fast and fairly effective. His splitter, meanwhile, has even more vertical break than JJ's, and follows the same kind of path in towards a right-handed batter. It doesn't precisely mirror his fastball in that regard like JJ's does, but it's pretty close. It's an offspeed pitch that looks a lot like a heater until it dies. That's a potentially dangerous weapon. (I'm not going to talk about the slider, since it's not a putaway pitch for either guy.)

Aardsma's no clown. Yes, he has a lot of work to do when it comes to hitting his spots, but he has a very similar arsenal to the one that made our last closer successful, and he's not an easy pitcher to hit. It's also important to highlight, as others have, the fact that Aardsma was pretty good last year before his season was derailed by a groin injury. Prior to landing on the DL, Aardsma had a .637 OPS against and the same swinging strike rate as Mike Gonzalez and Joakim Soria. His command and control were still below-average, but you can get away with a few extra walks when you're difficult to hit and difficult to hit hard.

This is going to be a fiercely competitive spring, and the opportunity is there for David Aardsma to finally launch the kind of career so many people thought he'd go on to have. He just needs to work on refining his location, and while that's no easy task, his arm gives him a greater margin of error than most. And hell, even if someone else wins out at the end of ST, it's not like that guy will have a very firm grip on the job. Until someone truly steps up and takes the closer role by the throat, no one occupying the spot is going to have much in the way of job security, and given Aardsma's dynamite arsenal - and Lowe's, too - there's the potential here for a major breakout. You'll want to keep an eye on these two. After all, it's a heck of a lot easier for a guy with good stuff to develop command than for a guy with command to develop good stuff, and when guys with good stuff develop a little command, that's when the magic starts to happen.

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by the way

Larue talked to Aardsma saturday

by msb on Feb 25, 2009 12:11 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

No Lefties, huh?

Man, if Batista wasn’t being paid 8mil he wouldn’t even make the cut. All four of the other guys are better (though I’ve never been that supportive of Corcoran).

Here’s hoping Lowe wins it and Aardsma dominates the 8th.

by Ezzra on Feb 25, 2009 1:08 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Both!

Obviously, the focus is winning. If the team doesn’t win, then we’ll see.

I think Aardsma could conceivably have some value if he’s able to repeat his first half of 2008, but I’m not as hopeful as some. There’s also the point that if the team’s relievers have any value, the M’s will be less likely to move them. This isn’t a Bavasi team with some great, cheap pieces (Putz) and then a grizzled, been-through-the-wars guy who makes several million (Rhodes). If the ‘pen is successful, the only person in it who’ll be making any money is Batista, and I STILL doubt he’d be a tradeable commodity. I’d love to be proven wrong on that.

by marc w on Feb 25, 2009 8:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Aardsma wooo?

You can't hide from the omnipresent eye.

by Goose on Feb 25, 2009 7:59 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Some things

1: Jeff, are you using the 2007 data for Aardsma? Looking at his 2008 player card, the numbers are a bit different, but his 2007 player card matches these numbers exactly.

2: We still don’t know how important pure pitch movement really is. Similarity in delivery probably means more to OPS against or whatever than movement for each of these pitches (a curve or knuckle would be different, but that’s not relevant here). Still, this is pretty interesting.

3: Related to the above, it’s interesting to see just how many pitchers are even more similar to Aardsma’s 2007: Jack Taschner, Scott Dohmann, Todd Wellemeyer. Clearly this arsenal/movement isn’t a guarantee of much.

4: It’s also interesting that Aardsma’s best year (according to FIP and pRAA) occurred in the year where he had his lowest FB velocity. Maybe/probably just chance, but it makes me wonder if he’d be more effective if he backed off and tried to locate a bit.

by marc w on Feb 25, 2009 9:02 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Whoops. Fixed the post to show 2008 numbers

As far as delivery is concerned, we have this:

Aardsma’s release point is more inconsistent, but it seems to be inconsistent across all his pitches, so that shouldn’t give away what he’s throwing. Of course, there’s a lot more to delivery than release point, but that’s the best I can do with what I’ve got.

Obviously, the arsenal doesn’t mean much if he can’t use it effectively. But it gives him a lot of upside – way more than, say, Walker, Corcoran, or Batista – and I think it’s worth finding out if he can get himself straight, because if he can, then you’ve got a pretty good closer. I don’t expect him to ever have JJ’s peak location, but he doesn’t need it in order to succeed.

by Jeff on Feb 25, 2009 11:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yyyyeeaaahh

That looks like a big difference in release point, though I admit I don’t know how important these differences are (and I’m not used to eyeballing these charts). Not only is Aardsma’s FB all over the place, but the slider seems to be released on the low end. JJ’s FB and Splitter release look dead on.

And just because the arsenal is similar to JJ’s doesn’t mean he’s got more upside. I mean, Tyler Walker’s FB/SL are VERY similar:

FB: -4.89 X and 10.47 Z.
Slider: 1.54 and 1.32.

Sure, his 3rd pitch isn’t, but he throws it less and it’s not a damn splitter. I hope you’re right, Jeff, but I have no idea if Tyler Walker is better or worse than Aardsma, but I have to say I’m just not impressed with a journeyman who’s basically had one sort of OK year and a whole lot of replacement level, whatever superficial similarities he might have to JJ Putz.

by marc w on Feb 25, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The upside comes from the FB/SP combo and the velocity

Walker has a couple nifty pitches, but he doesn’t reach the high 90s the way Aardsma and JJ do.

I’m not impressed by Aardsma. But, with a little improvement, I could be.

by Jeff on Feb 25, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Can't have two players in the lineup with the same number at the same time

It would have to be creative like 2/4 or 24.5 or something along those lines

by Fuzz on Feb 25, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Real Griffey would just have to wear a different number.

Cardboard Cutout Griffey has been wearing 24 non-stop since 1997 while real Griffey was ladida-ing around with 30, 3 and 17.

by Vatinius on Feb 25, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Now that would be hilarious

GMZ: “Soo, Ken….we can’t let you wear #24”
Griffey: “Why not? That’s what I wore last time I was here”
GMZ: “Yeah, but it seems that this cardboard cutout of you has had it since you left, and well, he doesn’t want to give it up”

by Fuzz on Feb 25, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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