Michael Wilson --> Scrap Heap

by slamcactus on Feb 22, 2009 8:12 PM PST Comment 45 comments

Rotoworld's saying Michael Wilson's been released.

Man, he had a wild ride through the minors. It took him three years to reach a full season league, then he had a total stall-out in Double-A after finally showing promise in 2006, followed by a bit of a bounceback, and now he's been cut.

I expect him to resurface for another team and spend the next few years punishing mistakes in the PCL, striking out all the time and playing awful defense.

So long, Mike. You were almost interesting to follow, and we wish you the best, but may no Mariners scouting department ever again reprise the "spend high draft picks on great athletes whether or not they can play baseball and hope for the best" strategy that brought you into the organization.

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And nothing of value was lost.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Feb 23, 2009 2:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Ugh. That '01 draft sucked all around.

No first-round pick, blew a supplemental pick on Michael Garciaparra (with David Wright taken two picks later), Rene Rivera (JJ Hardy taken seven picks later) Wilson (with Dan Haren taken 5 picks later).

by Craig341 on Feb 23, 2009 6:45 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Whatever happened to Michael Garciaparra anyway?

by Fin on Feb 23, 2009 10:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not much

He’s a Brewer

by abender20 on Feb 23, 2009 10:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He did his required time in the Phillies org after the M's released him

(see Dobbs, Blackley, Doyle, etc.)

by marc w on Feb 23, 2009 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You could do that with every draft though.

Baseball’s is more a crapshoot than any others. Gillick (or his staff) wasn’t particularly good at drafting though.

by Mariner John on Feb 23, 2009 3:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well if we had drafted Wright, we would have never signed Beltre.

That’d be so sad…

by Coach Owens on Feb 23, 2009 4:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Um...

I love Beltre, but I’d give him up for David Wright in a hillbilly’s heartbeat.

by slamcactus on Feb 23, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You wouldn't miss the Point?!

by Coach Owens on Feb 23, 2009 6:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We wouldn't know about the point.

by acblue on Feb 24, 2009 12:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey

The “spend high draft picks on great athletes whether or not they can play baseball and hope for the best” strategy

Mouhammed Sene, anyone?

Griffey come home

by Taylor H on Feb 23, 2009 8:51 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think it's a bit generous

to call Sene a “great athlete.” He’s just tall

I'd rather know a little about a lot than a lot about a little

by Sportszilla on Feb 23, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, Sene seems a bit more in the Robert Swift mold than the, let's see....Stromile Swift mold.

by marc w on Feb 23, 2009 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Again, not the move I would've made

but I understand it.
I would’ve liked to see what he could do at the AAA level. And I guess I may get that chance; just with Wilson facing Tacoma, instead of playing for Tacoma. I’d say calling his 2008 a ‘bit of a bounceback’ is an understatement. He led the SL in HRs, which is moderately impressive considering the year Gamel had. He also demonstrated a newfound ability to take a walk, with over .100 ISO-D and a solid walk rate. Yes, he’s old for the league – and that’s why this isn’t a brain-dead move – but a .400 wOBA is a .400 wOBA.

As for the spending high draft picks on great athletes… what would you call the Denny Almonte pick? Yes, I know two scouting/GM groups have moved on to the great war room in the sky since Wilson was drafted, but let’s not pretend that the whole ‘draft an athlete and hope he grows into his tools’ philosophy left with Mattox. Almonte’s nothing like Wilson physically or anything, but it seemed to be a similar idea.

by marc w on Feb 23, 2009 9:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Almonte...

The link to Almonte’s page was a reminder that the practice wasn’t dead with the previous administration. It was a very bad pick for the same reasons Wilson was a bad pick.

As for Wilson, he had a good year in the Southern League, but for a 25-year-old corner outfielder who can barely field the position, it wasn’t the kind of year that proves he had a chance at anything other than a bench role in the major leagues.

by slamcactus on Feb 23, 2009 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I get for not clicking the link.

I think bench player is exactly right, but his ability (or rather potential) at the plate make him moderately interesting in that role. I could see him as a Marcus Thames type player… nothing special, but I’d rather have Marcus Thames than a fair few people on the 40 man roster.

by marc w on Feb 23, 2009 10:13 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Thames...

made very good contact in the minors. He was a much better prospect than Wilson is, and he wasn’t a very good prospect.

by slamcactus on Feb 23, 2009 11:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure, he struck out less, but he wasn't exactly Ichiro

And I’m using him as an example of a guy who really didn’t get anything figured out until he was 24-25, and who didn’t get a regular bench job until his 8th pro season.
Wilson’s had more consistent ISO-P through age 25, and has a decent walk rate which PARTIALLY offset Thames advantage as a better pure hitter. So yes, I’m saying Wilson becomes Thames IF his improvement last year in discipline is real, and if he continues to advance in AAA. None of that is certain.
Still, what exactly is LaHair’s ‘best case scenario?’ That he takes off with the glove and becomes some sort of weird JT Snow-type?

by marc w on Feb 23, 2009 11:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

LaHair’s dead weight. I’m not saying Wilson was the 1 person I’d cut off the 40-man, but I’m not going to mourn his loss too much.

Wilson won’t become Thames. His glove’s nowhere near as good. Thames had some time where he could justify a regular job as a +2 win player. Wilson doesn’t have that upside.

by slamcactus on Feb 23, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wizzle wozzle?

I get that you think Wilson’s a special-needs outfielder, but Thames’ glove is non-existant. He’s put up UZR/150s in the -20 to -30 range twice in the past few years. The numbers bounce around, but the overall picture’s pretty clear.
I’m guessing this is why he’s getting more time at 1B (though he was -9 at 1b last year, apparently).
I think it’s definitely fair to say that the odds of Wilson having Thames’ career aren’t great, but – and this may be a personal thing – I’m not sure I would limit his potential to ‘poor man’s Thames’ at this point either. It all depends on whether 2008 was a weird aberration or the sign of Wilson finally figuring a few things out.

But yeah, I’m not going to mourn this too much, and we may be in the one weird year where offense-first corner OFs are in such low demand that he sneaks through waivers (though I doubt it).

by marc w on Feb 23, 2009 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He...

is absolutely awful in the field.

Thames’ career UZR/150 is -9.2, which sounds about right, given that he also put up a +22 and +17 season. Each season was a small sample. Taken in aggregate, he was a poor fielder, but he wasn’t Raul Ibanez.

Now, it’s tough to take your personal observations combined with scouts on minor leaguers and compare them to guys we have very sophisticated and reasonably reliable defensive data on, but the guys who get the “fringe” defense label usually end up being much, much worse than -10 fielders. The handful of times I’ve seen Wilson in the field personally it’s been unbelievably ugly. Like, worse than Raul ugly.

by slamcactus on Feb 23, 2009 1:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Stuff like that always makes me wonder what my HS UZR would be.

in four or five attempts, I never once caught the ball in the air; every time i waited for it to land and lollypopped it to the shortshop.

What’s the minimum for UZR if an outfielder misses every ball caught?

by craig3410 on Feb 23, 2009 1:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Whatever his playing time would allow for, I guess.

by Teej on Feb 23, 2009 2:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ha.

Sounds like a great question for Lichtman.

by slamcactus on Feb 23, 2009 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Over a full season it'd probably be around -275ish

by Graham on Feb 23, 2009 2:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

(For left, that is)

by Graham on Feb 23, 2009 3:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

According to Baker's latest blog entry,

Wilson cleared waivers and was resigned by the M’s.

by Jed MC on Feb 23, 2009 3:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I assumed this would happen

by Mariner John on Feb 23, 2009 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I did not, but... yay!

Here’s the link at the TNT blog….

by marc w on Feb 23, 2009 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ha.

Welcome back, Mike! May you succeed despite the flawed “”http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=1752" >spend high draft picks on great athletes regardless of whether or not they can play baseball and hope for the best" strategy that brought you into the organization.

by slamcactus on Feb 23, 2009 3:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

D'oh!

Don’t know how I botched the link.

That’s a link to Jermaine Brock’s B-Ref page.

by slamcactus on Feb 23, 2009 3:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They should release him again

Just so you can link to Kenny Kelly.

by davidcameron on Feb 23, 2009 3:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And resign him, so he can link to Gavin Dickey?

by marc w on Feb 23, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Or...

Joe Dunigan, or John Mayberry Jr, or Matt Tuiasosopo, or Adam Jones (gotta give credit to the ones that work out despite poor process), or Josh Womack, or Jeff Flaig, or WIllie Bloomquist….

The list goes on.

Not sure Dickey qualifies, though. Wasn’t he a 12th-rounder?

by slamcactus on Feb 23, 2009 4:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Jeff Flaig, good call...

Dunigan…. THAT’S the guy I was trying to remember.

Well if we’re quibbling, Kelly Kelly wasn’t drafted by the Mariners.

Dickey was indeed a 12th rounder.
Bloomquist counts? I thought he was a guy who had a lot of baseball skills/sense, and comparatively weaker tools. At least, I’d hope so. I know he’s a hell of an athlete, but the guy has no power for a reason.

by marc w on Feb 23, 2009 4:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs