So I was talking about the Ms with a friend a couple days ago, and he mentioned that Peter Gammons (or some other clown oN ESPN) said that the Mariners had one of the 3 worst off-seasons in baseball.  I explained how I thought Gammons was full of crap and my friend proceded to (pathetically and shamefully) fail the LL Ibanez litmus test, citing (among other things) that defense wasn't that important and that we were sure to the miss his veteran leadership.

After I finished laughing, I said that we would finish around 500.  We decided to bet on it.  Here is the deal: If the Mariners reach the all-star break with a 444 win percentage or better, I win.  If its lower than 444, I lose.  Loser buys dinner for the winner at FX McCrorys before a game. 

So, what do you think?  Is this as much of a slam dunk as I think it is?  ( A .444 winning percentage is 72 wins over an entire season).  I don't quite understand WAR, which is leaving me with some doubts.