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Weekly? Rumor Open Thread II

Via Fox Sports:

Catching shortage helping Olivo — 12:36 p.m.

There is a shortage of catching.

And it is driving the market for the catchers on the open market.

Miguel Olivo has found strong interest from San Francisco, Seattle and Colorado. The Giants and Mariners have driven the price up. They are both seeking every day catchers. Colorado, meanwhile, looks at Chris Iannetta as its No. 1 catcher, but wants a strong backup in case a need arises.

The Rockies declined a $4 million option on Yorvit Torrealba, but are having renewed discussions on signing him.

Olivo became a free agent when Kansas City opted to pay the $100,000 buyout on his $3.3 million option for 2010 even though he led the Royals with 23 home runs while appearing in 114 games last year.

Kansas City is among the teams looking for a catcher, even though in addition to buying out Olivo's contract the Royals plan to non-tender catcher John Buck. The deadline for tendering contracts to players is on Saturday. -- Tracy Ringolsby

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Via ESPN Winter Meetings Live via Buster Olney

“Seattle unlikely to get involved on Jason Bay.”

The winter meetings with twitter is like the TMZ of baseball.

by Jed MC on Dec 7, 2009 10:21 AM PST reply actions  

Poor Rob Johnson.

I can understand grabbing another catcher to allow Adam Moore to get more seasoning down in Triple-A, but we might as well displace Rob Johnson as the starter while we are at it.

Bringing back Olivo is interesting. I wonder if Doumit is no longer a viable option (Pirates know he has value and the asking price might be too high)?

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 10:23 AM PST reply actions  

I was about to post this!

But then the comments were closed..

Man, Miguel Olivo. I mean, I remember thinking he was the big hope of the M’s organization at catcher. The ITP guys even sent me up to interview him when he was rehabbing in Everett and I nearly had to chase him into the clubhouse to get a few uninteresting answers.

I can see the appeal, but I don’t know why he’d want to come back here. New front office and coaching staff and all, but it would still be… kind of weird.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 7, 2009 10:23 AM PST reply actions  

If we sign Miguel Olivo I'll die laughing

I’d imagine he’s still too embarrassed to even consider coming back

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by Corco on Dec 7, 2009 11:03 AM PST reply actions  

Firesale!

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 7, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't think we should speculate on ideas with no rumor basis.

But that’s just me. Otherwise we might get into the “Do you think we should try to trade Morrow, Figgins and Lopez for Pujols?” discussions.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Saunders is basically the same type of player Granderson is going forward.

I don’t see why GMZ would do this unless he thinks this is a World Series team and needs Granderson production today rather than in the future.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 9:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Granderson is way better

Saunders is no where near a sure thing. Strikeouts…

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 7, 2009 9:28 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think I agree.

He might be slightly more of an asset because he’s cheap, but Granderson is only 28, has a skillset that ages very well and plays a premium defensive position. Saunders has promise, but he also has some pretty big flaws in his game.

Granderson is pretty routinely a 3.5-4 win player and I don’t see any good reason to think he’s going to fall off that much in the next six years or so.

by Aaron Campeau on Dec 7, 2009 10:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Okay, I can agree with that.

But if you include Morrow and Kelley in the deal, I don’t think Granderson is worth all three of those players.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 10:31 PM PST up reply actions  

He's strikes out 1/3 of the time.

At least while he was up in the majors. I’m sure he will adjust with more playing time.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 11:30 PM PST up reply actions  

You know who else strikes out 1/3 of the time? Bill Hall.

This doesn’t really have anything to do with what you were talking about, but whenever I hear about someone striking out 1/3 of the time, I think about goddamn Bill Hall.

by Manzanillos Cup on Dec 7, 2009 11:42 PM PST up reply actions  

He's had to work his way up in the minors as well.

He has played only one full season at single minor league level (2006 in Single-A). In other words, he has had to adjust to new levels during the season over the last three years. He finally broke out in Triple-A where he proved he has the potential to develop some power.

I don’t see how you can make a judgment so easily that he won’t be a 20+ HR hitter. We are both using small sample sizes, but hitting 13 HRs in 282 PA (16 HRs in 387 PA in total at the Triple-A level) is a better sample than the seasons he had to split time between different leagues.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 10:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Power is the last tool to develop.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 8, 2009 7:08 AM PST up reply actions  

No I agree

20 HR is pretty possible but at this point its not a sure thing. He has the talent to do it though.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 8, 2009 9:18 AM PST up reply actions  

I agree with everything about Granderson being a better player.

But he does strike out a ton. And in his first 100 AB was very close to striking out 1/3rd of the time.

by Scruffy Lefty on Dec 8, 2009 8:59 AM PST up reply actions  

That's true, they are the same type of player...

but I don’t think that means you can assume Saunders is going to produce at the same level as Granderson. If Saunders turns into a 2-3 win player it would be nifty, but Granders is probably a 3-5 win player for the next few years, and he wouldn’t cost that much.

by mebpenguin on Dec 7, 2009 9:29 PM PST up reply actions  

I doubt they're going to want to spend money on a meh catcher

given their pitching and 1b/dh needs. Especially given the kind of hitter Olivo is.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 7, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions  

MLB has a free live broadcast from the meeting

here.

Sadly, not the MLB show that Larry Stone was just one, I gather.

by msb on Dec 7, 2009 11:29 AM PST reply actions  

Well, according to ESPN's winter meeting coverage, Jack Z does not seem very interested in Jason Bay
GordonEdes:
Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik said he spoke briefly with Urbon on Sunday, said it’s “up to Joe” when they meet again.

by seattlebruin on Dec 7, 2009 11:35 AM PST reply actions  

This tends to be Jack's modus operandi.

Make an offer, let it stand, wait for someone else to cave, negotiate from there.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 7, 2009 11:43 AM PST up reply actions  

This seems to be the place for winter meeting discussions

Shannon spoke with GMZ about Triunfel today. Still speculating where he’ll wind up playing, but the team apparently wants him to work at third, short, and second this season.

Also if you thought he looked a lot bigger during the AFL you were right. He was all the way up to 220 lbs at one point before dropping down to 197.

by BrianL on Dec 7, 2009 11:43 AM PST reply actions  

He is restricted to 2700 calories per day!

what does that do to his prospect status? A top ten prospect needs 3500 at minimum.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 7, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions  

TWITTER IS DOWN!!!

OMG Where will we get news! Something could be happening right now!

by dkulich on Dec 7, 2009 11:49 AM PST reply actions  

I know you're kidding

but you should probably tune into the Brock and Salk show right now. Salk is live at the meetings.

by BrianL on Dec 7, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Oh wow thanks

Completely forget about the live stream… Good call sir.

by dkulich on Dec 7, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions  

And something did happen during the down time!

Even though it’s sort of unrelated to the M’s, sounds like the Mets snagged Jackson

by dkulich on Dec 7, 2009 11:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Really?

I can’t wait to see that move blow up.

by BrianL on Dec 7, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Ed Price is reporting...

That he heard it in the lobby, nothing comfirmed yet. Probably heard “Man, Michael Jackson was the best.” and thought they said “Edwin Jackson going to the Mets.”

by dkulich on Dec 7, 2009 12:06 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Mets now denying the rumor...

and I did say “sounds like”, so it wasn’t that strong.

by dkulich on Dec 7, 2009 12:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Timeline:
  • Mariners fans, hungry for Winter Meetings news, bring down USSMariner several years in a row with their repeated page refreshes.
  • Dave Cameron, recognizing this issue, reroutes Mariners fans to Twitter, where individual reporters are now reporting what they hear as it comes, in an effort to lighten the load on the USSM servers.
  • Mariners fans bring down Twitter.

This is probably not the case, but it amuses me.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 7, 2009 12:13 PM PST up reply actions  

I wouldn't be surprised...

That was my first thought when I saw that Twitter was undergoing ‘scheduled maintenance’.

Karma police, arrest this man.

by wyte_lightning on Dec 7, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Fine, fine....

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 7, 2009 12:24 PM PST up reply actions  

From Stone:

“Angels have jumped in Jason Bay race; possible Edwin Jackson deal coming down (AOL speculates Mets)”

by Brian Floyd on Dec 7, 2009 12:18 PM PST reply actions  

I'd be shocked if they got Bay,

They said they were well out of the race for Holliday, and the two should have similar price tags.

by dkulich on Dec 7, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions  

DIfferent Agents

Arte Moreno and Boras are not friends.

Aybar is a nowhere man, Sitting in his Nowhere Land, Making all his nowhere plans for nobody.

by princeton11loveshalos on Dec 8, 2009 2:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Keep hearing this and it's extremely silly

You can’t build a baseball club if you outright refuse to deal with probably the biggest agent in the sports world. It’s completely overblown.

The reason this won’t happen is the Angels don’t have enough money (for either of them) unless the market comes down a lot. They’ve stated that they only have around 12mil to spend, so unless something has changed and they’ve been freed up more money…yeah.

by OlSalty on Dec 8, 2009 6:52 AM PST up reply actions  

I have a hard time believing that the Angels are seriously persuing Bay

especially at the 15mil+ price tag that he wants.

Karma police, arrest this man.

by wyte_lightning on Dec 7, 2009 12:20 PM PST up reply actions  

I highly doubt he gets $15 per year.

I doubt he gets much more than 3/$40 or 4/$50…

by BrettJMiller on Dec 7, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Larry Stone, on Twitter, quoting AOL as a source.

Brain. Broke.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 7, 2009 12:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Jayson Stark

“Nick Johnson is high on the Mariners 1B shopping list.”

abender20 hates freedom.

by Scruffy Lefty on Dec 7, 2009 12:58 PM PST reply actions  

On another note

You just showed up on my twitter feed. Did you do what I think you did?

abender20 hates freedom.

by Scruffy Lefty on Dec 7, 2009 1:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Churchill:

UPDATE 12:55 PM: Latest word from Indy is that the Mariners are in on Mark De Rosa, Orlando Hudson, and have made contact with the Nationals about Josh Willingham.

by BrettJMiller on Dec 7, 2009 1:13 PM PST reply actions  

Eh.

With DeRosa turning 35 and Lopez entering his peak, I don’t see how their 2010 projected values would be that far apart. DeRosa is way more versatile, so there’s that.

by Manzanillos Cup on Dec 7, 2009 2:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Can I take the other side of that bet?

According to FanGraphs, DeRosa has averaged around -7.0 UZR/150 for his career at 2B and 3B. The fan projection has him at 7.3 Runs Above Average and Bill James has him at -0.2

Lopez has a career UZR/150 of 0.6. James projects him at -1.5 RAA and the fans at -2.6.

So Lopez is about 7.5 runs better defensively. DeRosa is projected between 1.3 (James) and 9.9 (fans) runs better offensively.

Based on the historical data and projections, the chance that DeRosa is better in 2010 is probably less than 40%.

by CMC_Stags on Dec 7, 2009 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

There isn't enough data to go on to be sure that DeRosa is truly a -7 defender

He certainly doesn’t look like a bad defender to the naked eye.

I would also counter by saying Lopez has been worth 5 wins over the last three seasons, while DeRosa had been worth 8. Plus, while his .311 OBP last year looks like it could be an outlier, it was still 8 point better than Lopez’s, and lopez had a career year.

by Poochie on Dec 7, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions  

CHONE projects Lopez to be a better hitter next year.

The thing is, if you know 100% that DeRosa is going to be healthy, yeah, he’ll most likely be better than Lopez. But when you take into account his age, and it’s health and decline implications, he and Lopez are about even.

by Manzanillos Cup on Dec 7, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions  

And also cost

Loafie costs you $2.5M in 2009 – DeRosa might cost you $15M over two years

by seattlebruin on Dec 7, 2009 4:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed

Don’t be a such a hater. Lopez has his issues but overall he’s pretty good value at his position and actually has some upside in him still.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 7, 2009 4:57 PM PST up reply actions  

I never was under the impression that you thought otherwise.

We were comparing the two with salaries set aside.

Having said all of this, if signing Hudson or DeRosa to a reasonable deal meant that we had traded Lopez (and others) for a shiny SP, then yes please.

by Manzanillos Cup on Dec 7, 2009 5:24 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think you can sign DeRosa to a reasonable deal

and in Safeco I would bet that Hudson is better anyway. The trick is to deal Lopez before you sign Hudson.

by Poochie on Dec 7, 2009 5:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I am glad he is warming up to his new teammates.

2009 Safeco Field Record: 6-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 10-4

by Fin on Dec 7, 2009 6:38 PM PST up reply actions  

523 Defenisve Games at 2B/3B

Which are about the same difficulty defensively and he put up similar numbers. I’d say that’s a large enough sample size to get a feel for his general ability.

by CMC_Stags on Dec 7, 2009 11:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Really?

I don’t have a strong opinion on the matter but intuition and some vaguely remembered research into the subject suggests otherwise.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 8, 2009 6:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Probably not by a lot

But the two require different skillsets and there are fewer players with the skillset to play 2B and also hit decently.

by OlSalty on Dec 8, 2009 7:02 AM PST up reply actions  

I guess I phrased that incorrectly

They’re both similarly hard defensive positions but you can’t just take any 3B and stick him at 2B and expect him to perform the same just because the positional adjustment is the same. The defensive adjustments might be the same but the offensive adjustments are very different because, just for example, 2B requires more mobility than 3B and that’s not conducive to power hitters.

by OlSalty on Dec 9, 2009 5:56 AM PST up reply actions  

It seems like virtually every free agent is tied to the Mariners.

I think it just because they have money to spend and Jack Z has probably talked to all of their agents. Easy tweet or addition to the rumor mill.

by Jed MC on Dec 7, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Yup
Mets looking at Molina for more catching help — 3:23 p.m.

The Mets have already signed free agent catcher Chris Coste, and they may not be done yet.

New York is stepping up its pursuit of free-agent Bengie Molina, who reportedly is seeking a multi-year deal that would average around $7 million annually. The Giants and Seattle have expressed interest, but both teams are reluctant to guarantee more than one year. — Tracy Ringolsby

by Poochie on Dec 7, 2009 1:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes..

And all the time he spent in the with NL East anytime the Phillies played him while Bowa was still managing that’s all the non-Harry Kalas announcers talked about.

by dkulich on Dec 7, 2009 2:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe this is old news

but Brad Penny is signing with St Louis for 1/5 guaranteed, up to 9 million if he does well. Good deal for the Cards, and hopefully an indication of what it’ll take to get Harden.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 7, 2009 1:49 PM PST reply actions  

My bad. I was going off a Roto summary

but the actual article has them either still talking or abut to get a physical. Nevertheless, I like the numbers.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 7, 2009 1:51 PM PST up reply actions  

I've been listening to the free MLB feed on their site

apparently their main fanbase (judging from the calls) is the 14 year old male.

by msb on Dec 7, 2009 1:52 PM PST reply actions  

Larry Stone tweets

@Larry Stone: Jack Zduriencik and Felix’s agent, Alan Nero, met today. Nero: “It was a healthy meeting. We all know where we stand.”

yup.

“We want a lot of money & years, they are thinking about it”

by msb on Dec 7, 2009 2:26 PM PST reply actions  

Don Wakamatsu gets it.
“Probably some of the things we’ve talked about all year, and that’s just trying to get a grasp on understanding how to get on base, flat out. I think our on base percentage struggled, but I think with that, there’s got to be a methodology, too. There’s got to be a plan and an individual one because I think everybody is a little bit different. But I think we set the focus and we’ll continue to do that.

by BrianL on Dec 7, 2009 2:34 PM PST reply actions  

I love the winter meetings.

"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco

by Goose on Dec 7, 2009 3:20 PM PST reply actions  

Penny to St Louis rumor seems to be solidifying.

Olney reporting 7.5 million base salary. Sweet deal for em.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 7, 2009 4:42 PM PST reply actions  

There seem to be a lot of 2 win pitchers out there

Available for trade or in free agency, but not much better than that. You have to wonder where the Mariners are going to pick up a top of the rotation starter to plug in behind Felix as they already have a bunch of 2 win pitchers. As far as I can see the only realistic choices in free agency are Harden and Sheets; both of which are risky as well.

Anyone have an idea of who we might be able to target in the trade market to come in as a 3-4 win pitcher?

by mebpenguin on Dec 7, 2009 4:54 PM PST reply actions  

I hope that we aren't pursuing Randy Wolf, like Heyman believes.

He had a good year this season but with how much he’s asking for and the fact that he wants a multi-year deal makes me think that he’s going to be the next Washburn or what have you.

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 7, 2009 5:11 PM PST reply actions  

I still wouldn't pay $30M+ and 3 years+ for a 33 year old who had a career year.

According to StatCorner, Wolf’s been extremely inconsistant, posting WAR’s of 2.0, 1.4, 0, 0.1, 1.7 -0.1 0.3, 1.4 and 4.0 since 2003. I would not be surprised at all if he dipped down to the .5<x<1.5 WAR range for the next few years.

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 7, 2009 5:18 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think the drop off would be that steep unless he was injured

Keep in mind that the Mariners are “in” on just about everyone. They are probably simply finding his asking price.

by Poochie on Dec 7, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions  

I think you need to look at those numbers again.

You included short stint minor league rehab assignments and split seasons via trade. His actual StatCorner WAR:

2003: 2.0
2004: 1.4 (injured)
2005: 0.0 (injured)
2006: 0.1 (injured)
2007: 1.7 (injured)
2008: 1.7
2009: 4.0

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 5:36 PM PST up reply actions  

I think it is an awful idea

but more for injury reasons than skill reasons. I think it’d be safe to say he’s a 2+ win pitcher with upside, but 3 years for a guy injured the majority of his career is an awful idea.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 5:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Though 2/16 would be a more accurate reflection of the market.

Since you can sign a higher reward.higher risk pitcher for like 1/7 or 1/8 this year.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions  

What's wrong with a vesting option for a pitcher?

I think it is better than one for a hitter.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions  

What are you going to base the vesting option from?

Wins? Nope.
ERA? Nope.
Strikeouts? Not by itself.

You could try something advanced like FIP or tRA, but good luck having a player and his agent agree to that.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 7:09 PM PST up reply actions  

All baseball contracts are guaranteed...

The only incentives players ever have for performing is their next contract or self-fulfillment (or MLBPA stabbing their children).

by lailaihei on Dec 7, 2009 7:17 PM PST up reply actions  

I wrote this the other day that I don't think many people say (nobody responded, it was in an older post that got buried).

This is how you can include incentives beyond the final year of the contract.

Here’s my idea: front load contracts.

Let me take Figgins’ contract as an example. 4-year, $36 million with an performance option for a potential worth 5-year, $45 million. That’s $9 million a year on average. Figgins has no incentive to perform except during that 4th season. He is already guaranteed $36 million.

1. Remove the 5th year performance option.
2. Front load the payments at 12/10/8/5
3. Place performance bonuses in the 3rd and 4th season (I won’t speculate what those would be, although a wOBA-based incentive would be neat).
4. Have those bonuses max out at $3 million each year ($6 in total).
5. Add a team option for a 5th year, $6 million.

The total amount of this contract could be worth $48 million. I know it is more than the $45 million, but that 5th year can be refused by the Mariners and the contract max out at $42 million. Either way, Figgins is still guaranteed his $36 million with two incentive-laden years instead of one.

At first you would think this contract is bad for the player and good for the team. However, it is great for both sides. Figgins’ real life contract already has a performance option in the 4th year. But he needs to reach those levels to guarantee a 5th year and another $9 million. The Mariners, declining age, and injuries can all keep Figgins from earning the performance option. With the contract that I have proposed, Figgins can earn up to $6 million of that $9 million without a 5th season (real incentives!). The Mariners, meanwhile, are already paying less in those last two years because the contract was front loaded. The potential extra $3 million each season isn’t likely to kill the budget and they will have a great player worth the money if he does reach those levels.

Even if Figgins doesn’t reach the $3 million in the 3rd year, he can earn the $3 million in the 4th year and the Mariners would be more likely to pick up the cheap option 5th year for $6 to keep the total at $45 million, 5 years. I just don’t see why this kind of thinking doesn’t happen more often. If it does, why would either the team or the player reject something like this?

Any thoughts?

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 7:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Guaranteed money is what all players want.

That’s why only desperately injury prone players take incentive-laden contracts.

by lailaihei on Dec 7, 2009 7:23 PM PST up reply actions  

But he is guaranteed the same amount of money in my proposal.

This just builds in extra incentives while also reducing risk for the team if Figgins were to decline in performance.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 7:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh my.

You’re wrong, completely wrong.

From the Mariners prospective, time value of money means nothing because the budget changes from year to year. Money you save this year has no effect on the budget next year. (The owners might have a problem with it, though, because they are the ones who benefit from money saved today as it goes into their pocket.)

From a player’s prospective, time value of money means everything because their buying power is greater today than it is tomorrow. It is better to get as much money now than in the future. Figgins would be better off getting $36 million upfront in the first year and not be paid over the last three years.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 9:37 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree completely, which I stated myself in the Felix FanShot

But this:

Money you save this year has no effect on the budget next year.

That’s a little bit of an overstatement. I would rephrase to say that we don’t know what budget we have to work with, but we know what budget we have now, and if we can afford to put it all up front now, we’ll have considerably more flexibility later, when things are less certain.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 9:41 PM PST up reply actions  

It's not an overstatement.

Saving $1 million this season does not add $1 million to next year’s budget, plain and simple. Dave Cameron, and I think J/M/G, have gone over this before.

But I concur with your overall viewpoint.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 9:46 PM PST up reply actions  

But it can.

For example, if the Mariners had a 94 million dollar budget, and only spend 72 mil of it, they have some financial flexibility to add to the 2011 budget if they want to. Will they? Maybe not. But they can. They can even plan for it if they like and do it strategically, such as not spending 10 million so that they can go after something they expect to occur in 2011.

I don’t think I could say with that type of certainty that previous year budgets are irrelevant.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 9:49 PM PST up reply actions  

The $22 million the Mariners save this year goes to owner(s).

It is up to the owner(s) to decide if they want to reinvest that $22 million in future years. Other than that, the budget is based on projected revenues.

That is as simple as I can explain it.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 9:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Uh....
That is as simple as I can explain it.

Yeah, thanks. This isn’t rocket science, homey. It’s not hard to understand. But:

It is up to the owner(s) to decide if they want to reinvest that $22 million in future years

Is exactly what I said here:

If the Mariners had a 94 million dollar budget, and only spend 72 mil of it, they have some financial flexibility to add to the 2011 budget if they want to. Will they? Maybe not. But they can.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 9:58 PM PST up reply actions  

But the Mariners DON'T have greater financial flexibility by saving the $22 million this year.

The owner can decide to invest an extra $22 million next year, but he likely won’t. He wants the operating revenues to cover the budget. If the operating revenues do not cover the budget, that means the owner has to reinvest in a losing business. That extra $22 million does not inherently give the Mariners greater financial flexibility.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions  

.
If the operating revenues do not cover the budget, that means the owner has to reinvest in a losing business. That extra $22 million does not inherently give the Mariners greater financial flexibility.

Well no kidding, but this has nothing to do with my argument. In fact, that’s kind of a random statement that is always true regardless. That’s like saying this year’s budget doesn’t affect next year’s budget because there might be a terrorist attack on SafeCo. But this:

but he likely won’t.

is my point. Likely is not a “no.” If the Mariners saved 22 million by accident, I bet the owner would keep it all. But if they were given budget X, and decided on purpose to only use Y/X for some specific reason (ie, to have a greater budget the next year) I can see that being easily possible, and cannot call this year’s budget irrelevant. If that’s the reason they were doing it, which is what everyone has been saying, I think it can be safely assumed the ownership is on board with it, and wouldn’t simply pocket the money.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 10:11 PM PST up reply actions  

The likelihood of the owner reinvesting $22 million in a losing business is 0.001%.

So it might as well be a no. The owner would want to see budget cuts before reinvesting.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 10:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think that's how it works.

If operating revenues are estimated to be 93 million, and that is the budget that the owners gave the GM, and the GM asked to save 22 million so that he can spend it in 2011, and the Mariners bring in exactly 93 million in revenue, as expected, then they were not a losing business and can opt to spend an additional 22 million should they choose to. I don’t see what assumes they’d be a losing business for this to be possible.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 10:32 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think we have ever seen this happen nor do I think it will ever happen.

If you save $22 million of the $93 million this year, that means your payroll is $71 million. Your payroll doesn’t magically jump to $93 million next year unless you have heavily back loaded contracts or you trade for expensive players.

In theory your scenario can happen, but I just don’t ever see it happening. You would have a clusterfuck of budgeting issues going forward. Do you take that $22 million next and spend it all for that one season? Do you spread it out over 3-4 years? Who are you planning on signing/trading for with that extra $22 million when they may not be available? How expensive are the heavily back loaded contracts going to get? When do those contracts expire?

It would take some intrinsic planning to pull off your scenario while keeping the team competitive and the budget flexible.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 10:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh, absolutely.

I don’t think it will happen. But I don’t think an extremely heavily frontloaded or backloaded contract will happen either – such that a player would make 32/0/0/0 or 0/0/0/32.

But because it doesn’t really happen doesn’t mean it can’t. Right now, even the most competent of GM’s aren’t getting creative with the way they allocate contracts for their own ultimate value. I think if/when they start doing that, we will also see things like saving money for budget flexibility, etc. I think the two go hand in hand.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 11:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Thanks for the discussion.

It’s nice to think about what I actually learned in obtaining my finance degree since I don’t have a job yet. Even more fun trying to apply it to the business of baseball. By the time I do get a job in the finance industry, I probably won’t remember a thing.

by Wilder. on Dec 7, 2009 11:23 PM PST up reply actions  

More impressive would be if you found a way to apply analysis you made on Lookout Landing into your work.

Employer: “That’s brilliant Wilder, how did you come up with that idea?”

You: “Funny you should ask! How much do you like baseball?”

Employer: “Not at all.”

You: “Ah, then I wrote a thesis paper on it in college.”

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 11:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Time value of money does mean something.

The Seattle Mariners are a business. Sure the payroll changes year-to-year but players’ salaries are only part of the picture. I’m not saying it doesn’t make sense from a baseball sense, but it doesn’t make sense from the business side.

by lailaihei on Dec 7, 2009 9:46 PM PST up reply actions  

IP

You can’t do Wins or ERA or any of those. But it is a vesting option for an injury prone pitcher. Ergo:

1) If they are injured, they can’t rack up the IP.
2) If they are not injured, they are very valuable, since injury is their only risk.
3) If they suck dick for some reason,you put them in the bullpen, where they can’t rack up IP.

Vesting options are perfect for high performance, injury prone pitchers. It’s harder with hitters, where you have to bench them every game even though they think they can come up there and hack it. With pitchers, they sit for 5 days anyway, and all you need to do is skip a few starts. And in the case of almost all pitchers, the risk is injury, not performance. So if they don’t get injured, most likely they will do quite well, in which case having them back one more year is a good thing.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 7:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, I don't either.

but I also don’t like gauranteed contracts. And if the only way he’s going to sign is with a 3 year deal, vesting options based on IP for good pitchers that are injury prone doesn’t seem like that big a deal. Imagine signing Harden to a 5 year deal worth 10 mil a year, but each year was a vesting option. If he’s healthy, he’s worth way more than that. If he’s not, we don’t have to pay him. Similar logic goes in vesting options for any injury prone above average pitcher. It’s so much easier to bench a pitcher than it is a hitter.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 7:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Not to mention that if he's sucking, he won't get the IP anyway, because another pitcher will have to come in and replace him.

Now that I think about it, I can’t really see any problem with vesting options for pitchers, provided they are at least somewhat team friendly (ie, vests at like 150 IP instead of something low like 80 IP). I don’t like them because I don’t like guaranteed contracts, but for pitchers, especially, any pitcher that blows isn’t going to reach that vesting option, and if they do well, they help our team and we probably want them for one more year.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 8:57 PM PST up reply actions  

CBA prevents this

I think IP is the only stat you can use

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 7, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions  

NO NO NO NO NO ABORT ABORT CEASE AND DESIST!
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has heard that the Diamondbacks may be willing to part with Max Scherzer for Tigers right-hander Edwin Jackson.

"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco

by Goose on Dec 7, 2009 6:43 PM PST reply actions  

That doesn't even make sense.

Why would anyone even kick the tires on him. He’s type A. That’s not even the kind of deal where you would bother talking to his agents about price.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 7:05 PM PST up reply actions  

He's Type A but wasn't offered arbitration

Still, way too pricey for a bullpen/spot starter guy. Here’s hoping it just drives the price up for the Angels.

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Dec 7, 2009 7:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Ah, I assumed he was offered arb.

Then sure, kick away. But walk away afterward.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 7:29 PM PST up reply actions  

from Larue:

“Somehow, the impression at these winter meetings is that the Seattle Mariners have almost unlimited cash available, which has resulted in their being linked to almost every interesting free agent out there.

“Who are we signing now?” asked Pedro Grifol, Seattle’s minor league director.

He was kidding."

by msb on Dec 7, 2009 7:27 PM PST reply actions  

From twitter
d_a_cameron Harden, Johnson, and Doumit all tied to M’s today. RT @StoneLarry: Rich Harden is looking increasingly like a good fit for the Mariners.

The more I think about the team the Mariners are trying to build, the more Doumit stands out as an important part. Even if we get the players we want (Branyan, Johnson) we’d still be in danger of having a lineup where be vulnerable to by any random lefty. Having a switch hitter like Doumit who has the defensive flexibility that he does gives us a “middle of the order” option verses lefties and is a pretty nifty option at catcher to boot.

by Poochie on Dec 7, 2009 7:40 PM PST reply actions  

I think the cost of Doumit is gonna be pretty high

Do you really want to pay that price? How much would you really give up?

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 7, 2009 9:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Why would you think that?

He’s an oft injured player (Has only had 400 PA once I believe), and the Pirates are trying to cut costs and rebuild. Plus, he’s kind of a lousy defensive catcher, he’s much closer to being Jim Leyritz than he is Victor Martinez.

by Poochie on Dec 7, 2009 9:05 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree completely

Just wondering what it would cost us to get Doumit. The problem is even though his defense might be kinda bad, he’s a good hitter which means his value is inflated on the market and the club who trades for him has control of him for 4 years (2012/2013 club options) at not outrageous sums of money.

Seems like we’re not the only team that’s going to want him.

by OlSalty on Dec 7, 2009 9:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Lucky for us we've worked with Pittsburgh before and Doumit sucked shit last year

Unlucky for us is Pittsburgh is a lot better at this than they used to be

by Poochie on Dec 7, 2009 9:08 PM PST up reply actions  

He is cheap and very good when not injured.

The pirates aren’t stupid. We can’t just take one of their better players for nothing. I feel like Dourmit for Saunders wouldn’t be an insane price.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 7, 2009 9:16 PM PST up reply actions  

They aren't stupid anymore, at least.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 7, 2009 9:31 PM PST up reply actions  

It would be an insane price

6 years of Saunders for two years of Doumit. And Doumit probably isn’t an everyday player.

A player like a Doumit is worth a lot more to a team trying to break 90 wins than it is to a team trying to break 70. Sure he won’t be free but it’s not like the Pirates are dying to pay several million dollars to a utility player.

by Poochie on Dec 7, 2009 9:33 PM PST up reply actions  

He has averaged 2.4 WAR over the past 3 years

He is going to be cheap for the next two years. His upside is pretty high (4 WAR) if he can stay healthy.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 7, 2009 9:53 PM PST up reply actions  

Perhaps, but that figure doesn't include defense

and he’d have to stay healthy and be on top of his game.

by Poochie on Dec 7, 2009 10:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Not quite

I will concede that the 2.4 WAR does not include defense but most efforts to quantify catcher defense have shown it to be make a fairly small difference for most players. Taking into account the relatively low amount of playing, if he was a complete butcher he has still averaged 2 WAR.

He can top 2 WAR by just staying moderately healthy. Its not like he had a bad back and 15 knee surgeries. He has just had several unrelated injuries. He isn’t in the bargain bin yet.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 7, 2009 10:58 PM PST up reply actions  

He's not known as a good defensive player

Either at catcher or at any other position. I find it difficult that the Mariners would be too interested in him. We’ve got several players now that can fill in at multiple positions and provide decent defense. Other than being an emergency-type catcher, I’m not sure how he would fit in.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 7, 2009 11:33 PM PST up reply actions  

That's not saying much.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Dec 7, 2009 11:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, the fifth best bat on the team and a guy who can fill in at multiple positions.

If he was Moore’s backup, he could see something like 30% of games behind the plate, 15% of games at 1B, 15% of games at DH, 10% of games in LF, and sit 30% of games. That would give him ample rest, hopefully keeping him off the DL, and give us a solid bat in a good portion of our games that we otherwise wouldn’t have.

by lailaihei on Dec 7, 2009 11:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Except that hints have been dropped on more than one occasion that they are interested in him

And, as I stated it’s clear that he could fit in at LF/1B/DH because he can switch hit and we would have two (presumably) left handed options, and at C because he hits well for a catcher. I also don’t see how you could peg him as an emergency catcher only.

by Poochie on Dec 7, 2009 11:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Just my take

on what the Mariners value at the catcher position. If they didn’t like Jeff Clement behind the plate, I’m not sure they’d want Doumit back there. Perhaps there have been hints that they like him, I haven’t read any of them myself. He’s a good hitter, but not great. Other than that, he doesn’t seem to offer much.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 7, 2009 11:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Clement couldn't physically catch

“He’s a good hitter but not great”

Bad Catcher Defense is still a net positive as far as defensive adjustments go because so few people can play catcher. As long as you can get behind the dish without murdering your team you are having a positive impact if you are just merely a good hitter.

by Poochie on Dec 8, 2009 12:43 AM PST up reply actions  

And admittedly,

I don’t know that much about Ryan Doumit. My impression is that he’s not all that good behind the plate. But I never watch the Pirates, it’s an impresion I’ve formed from the very little I’ve heard about him, and we don’t have much to go on in evaluating catcher defense. If he’s better than what I imagine him being, I absolutely could see the interest in him. Even so, I’m not sure how he’d fit into the Mariners plans unless they were going to trade Rob Johnson. Bringing in Doumit keeps Adam Moore in AAA, and I’m not sure what purpose that would serve.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 8, 2009 1:01 AM PST up reply actions  

The whole idea behind Doumit is, unless he really busts out, he can cover 1B/LF/C

ergo because he’d need some days off and would be starting at other positions there would be PT for MOore. Plus we don’t know if Moore is all that good any way and it would be nice to have a plan B

by Poochie on Dec 8, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Are both Moore and Johnson on the roster?

If they are, how does Doumit fit in? Is he the starting 1B or DH?

It seems to me the only way to fit him in would be to keep Moore in AAA or trade Johnson (I could only hope).

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 8, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Johnson is terrible

Highly doubtful that sending him down to AAA is a concern

by OlSalty on Dec 8, 2009 1:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think this a subject that can even be conjectured upon, really

Where is the line drawn between catchers who are bad at defense and catchers who can’t play the position at a major league level? We don’t have good measurements for defining catcher defense at all, so it’s mostly based on conjecture based on visual scouting evidence. Which, while better than nothing at all, we know is a somewhat flawed measure of ability….And while that does have some merit we don’t know just exactly how bad each of these players are.

Rob Johnson likely sucks at his job, and maybe Doumit does too, but Doumit we can prove is a far, far superior hitter to Johnson.

Not to mention that, from what we saw last season, catcher defense seems to be this organization’s blind spot (well it’s everyone’s blind spot really because there are no reliable measures) so is that really going to affect their own valuation of Doumit this offseason?

I dunno, I’m just guessing what they might think based on what they’ve done so far, we’ve only had a year to judge what they do and it might not be totally accurate.

by OlSalty on Dec 8, 2009 1:02 AM PST up reply actions  

The mariners can be interested in players who aren't good at defense

They are interested in good players that provide good value. I wouldn’t use this argument because it just leads to the 2009 Mariners offense.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 8, 2009 9:24 AM PST up reply actions  

Randy Wolf---->Brewers? Ed Price twitter
Hearing #Brewers closing in on three-year deal with LHP Randy Wolf. Trying to confirm.

"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco

by Goose on Dec 7, 2009 7:45 PM PST reply actions  

Granderson to the Yankees?
Sources: Yanks have discussed big trade — 10:46 p.m.

This would be a blockbuster.

The Yankees, Diamondbacks and Tigers have discussed a three-way trade that would send Tigers center fielder Curtis Granderson to New York and right-hander Edwin Jackson to Arizona, major-league sources say.

The other players in the trade are not known, and the talks are at an impasse, according to one source. The proposed deal is being pushed by the D-Backs, but was rejected by at least one of the other two teams, the source says. — Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi

by Double06 on Dec 7, 2009 8:02 PM PST reply actions  

Gross
The Yankees would receive Granderson from the Tigers and one or two prospects from the Diamondbacks.

• The Diamondbacks would get Jackson from the Tigers and right-hander Ian Kennedy from the Yankees.

• The Tigers would get right-hander Max Scherzer from the Diamondbacks, and center fielder Austin Jackson and left-handed relievers Phil Coke and Michael Dunn from the Yankees.

"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco

by Goose on Dec 7, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Well fuck that

My Mariners blog - SodoMojo, Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!

by gregrabble on Dec 7, 2009 8:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Nah

Yanks have been extremely possessive of Jackson and dont have the depth to deal away Kennedy just like that.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 7, 2009 8:42 PM PST up reply actions  

That's beyond hideous.

Why do I feel like the Tigers make out like bandits in this deal? I don’t even LIKE Austin Jackson and Phil Coke, but Scherzer alone makes this stupid. Then they unload two contracts they don’t want.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 7, 2009 9:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Hmm

“From Buster: The Diamondbacks are negotiating with the idea that they are going to get both Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy. There is growing confidence on at least two sides on the three-team deal that this has a good chance to get done. One source who had placed the odds at 20 percent at 9 a.m. ET texted at 11 a.m. that the odds were up to 30 percent. "

by msb on Dec 8, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Grain o' salt Heyman:

latest 3-way looks something like this: yanks get granderson; dbacks e-jax, i.kennedy; tigers scherzer, schlereth, a-jax, coke.

by msb on Dec 8, 2009 9:33 AM PST up reply actions  

Good for him, I guess.

That was pretty high up on the list of idiot moves made in the past few years. Trading away a pitcher for having a bad showing when he was sick. Awful.

I rather liked Soriano when he was still pitching for us and wish him well.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 7, 2009 8:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Raffy Soriano accepts arbitration.

The Braves just spent $10M on Wagner and Saito, so they gotta be a little ticked at this. Unless they trade him I guess.

"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco

by Goose on Dec 7, 2009 9:21 PM PST reply actions  

Tim Brown is saying Pudge to Nats on 2 year deal

Makes no sense for anyone involved, I’ll be shocked if it turns out to be true.

by edddgar on Dec 7, 2009 9:33 PM PST reply actions  

Heyman confirms

done pending the physical.

Karma police, arrest this man.

by wyte_lightning on Dec 7, 2009 9:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Weird.

"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco

by Goose on Dec 7, 2009 9:37 PM PST up reply actions  

???

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=punum

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Dec 7, 2009 9:58 PM PST up reply actions  

I mean, these mostly sound goodish.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Dec 7, 2009 9:59 PM PST up reply actions  

(Best to pay attention to the one that says "67 up, 2 down")

The others mistake the fact that it is often said squeezing one’s cheek as a sign of cuteness. It just means “face” and is said affectionately, but is not often always a compliment.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 7, 2009 10:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Aha. Thanks.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Dec 7, 2009 10:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Speaking of the Nats, what ever happened to Escoteric?

"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco

by Goose on Dec 7, 2009 9:49 PM PST up reply actions  

So he did.

Nevermind then.

"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco

by Goose on Dec 7, 2009 11:42 PM PST up reply actions  

This was my reaction

So when do we trade for Strasburg? (Never, I know)

by Kirk on Dec 8, 2009 1:47 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

That's all the time the Nats need for Bryce Harper to be ready.

Actually, I doubt he’ll be ready so soon, but the idea of a Strasburg/Harper battery is insane.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 8, 2009 7:12 AM PST up reply actions  

Rangers say thank you Nats...

And everyone thought he was going to take the arbitration offer..

That was a free supplemental 1st pick…

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 8, 2009 8:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Here's a shocker
Mariners like Bay, but not that much — 10:53 a.m.

The Mariners like free-agent left fielder Jason Bay — who doesn’t? — but their interest has been “overstated,” according to major-league sources.

The M’s concern with Bay is that his defensive shortcomings would be exacerbated playing in the big left field at Safeco Field. Bay played in an expansive left field earlier in his career at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park, but over the course of a long-term deal his range would figure to further decline.

Then again, while the M’s have stressed defense under new general manager Jack Zduriencik, they also need a big bat, particularly with third baseman Adrian Beltre rejecting their offer of salary arbitration.

If Bay is not that bat, they will need to find one elsewhere. — Ken Rosenthal

by OlSalty on Dec 8, 2009 9:03 AM PST reply actions  

Well it's pretty obvious that Bay really, really wants to come here

So I can see how there is somewhat of a story here. They just don’t seem to care to check if it actually makes sense for both sides before drumming up all this hype this time of year.

by OlSalty on Dec 8, 2009 9:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Could say the same for Griffey.

NOSTALGIA TOUR 2010! BIGGER AND BETTER!

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Dec 8, 2009 9:28 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

According to Edgar, that's not going to happen.

He says that he got talked into playing in a corporate softball game last year, and in his first at-bat, the pitcher threw three pitches past him, and he didn’t see any of them :)

by msb on Dec 8, 2009 9:31 AM PST up reply actions  

I have said the same for Griffey, minus the almost cry part.

Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.

p.s. fuck you angels

by InSpokane on Dec 8, 2009 9:30 AM PST up reply actions  

I would take him for his value as a player

It’s probably unlikely he can stay healthy, but barring last year’s injury-riddled affair he’s still an effective pitcher, amazingly. And he’s probably pretty cheap.

Also this would that be awesome for multiple other reasons.

by OlSalty on Dec 8, 2009 9:39 AM PST up reply actions  

Hell fucking yes.

Randy Johnson is still really good.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Dec 8, 2009 9:51 AM PST up reply actions  

HOLY SHIT

My Mariners blog - SodoMojo, Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!

by gregrabble on Dec 8, 2009 9:52 AM PST up reply actions  

Griffey! Big Unit! Cammy!

Fucking awesome.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Dec 8, 2009 10:15 AM PST up reply actions  

We're kicking tires on everyone.

Still, if we’re only so close to contention, we might as well have ourselves another fine trip down nostalgia lane.

Cammy can still play at least.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 8, 2009 10:18 AM PST up reply actions  

It'll be interesting to see how far from contention we really are when this all shakes out.

Cameron + Guti + Ichiro has to be the best outfield defense of all time, though.

by xero3k on Dec 8, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Let's bring back Washburn and then trade him again!

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 8, 2009 10:41 AM PST up reply actions  

I would be all for that

He’ll have like a 0.98 ERA with that defense out there

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by Corco on Dec 8, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions  

I am secretly hoping for this + Beltre returning.

Assuming Chone could play 2nd well, that would be the best defense of all time.

by abender20 on Dec 8, 2009 11:15 AM PST up reply actions  

Haha.

I noticed the same thing.

by Wilder. on Dec 8, 2009 11:06 AM PST up reply actions  

Or maybe not.

His signature made it seem like his subject line was being confirmed.

by Wilder. on Dec 8, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions  

Jesus.

Arizona got fucked hard in this deal.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Dec 8, 2009 11:05 AM PST up reply actions  

My God, what the hell is Arizona thinking?

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 8, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions  

Well at least it keep Cameron out of New York

but FUCK why give a player like Granderson to the Yankees

by Poochie on Dec 8, 2009 11:08 AM PST up reply actions  

Heyman says the Granderson deal is a go.

I don’t get this trade at all. There has to be another asset going somewhere

by Poochie on Dec 8, 2009 11:04 AM PST reply actions  

This doesnt make sense to me in that

there seems no need at all for the Tigers to involve the Dbacks at this stage. If NY is only getting Granderson, then effectively it is a Kennedy/A Jackson/Coke for Granderson trade. Which… I dunno. I like Granderson but that seems like a great deal to pay for him, given those players’ salaries and service time etc.

Then there’s a separate Edwin Jackson + Kennedy for Scherzer + Schlereth trade that makes little sense for Arizona. I mean, I don’t know THAT much about the Arizona players but this just doesnt compute.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 8, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions  

@d_a_cameron

“Arizona should have two press conferences – one to announce the trade, and another to apologize to their fans.”

by msb on Dec 8, 2009 11:34 AM PST reply actions   2 recs

Raffy Soriano

looks like his accepting arbitration was mostly a way to get around draft pick comp. There’s apparently some form of agreement that he’ll request a trade and likely will also agree to a more reasonable salary than would he would have in a normal arbitration process.

Also worth noting is that Penny’s deal with the Cards has a no arbitration clause if he becomes a type A. I imagine we’re going to start seeing a lot of these in relief pitchers’ contracts.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 8, 2009 11:51 AM PST reply actions  

*BE traded.

It would be one hell of an interested contract if he were required to “bed trade” – that sounds like a euphemism for wife-swapping.

by Decatur on Dec 8, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions  

I doubt it

Likely there are already some interested parties with an idea of what he should be paid. This happened last year with some reliever from the NLC I think.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 8, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions  

@gbakermariners

“Peter Gammons bows out at ESPN: leaves to pursue other endeavors”

Is he linked to the Mariners, too?

by Brian Floyd on Dec 8, 2009 12:26 PM PST reply actions  

Sad to see him go.

One of the few ESPN guys I actually liked.

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 8, 2009 12:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Ravech?

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 8, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Everyone else in Bristol, Connecticut

Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.

p.s. fuck you angels

by InSpokane on Dec 8, 2009 12:37 PM PST up reply actions  

End of an era. Good luck in your future endeavors, Peter.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 8, 2009 12:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Hey, Bobby Crosby is about to sign with the Pirates!

And gets to compete with Ronny Cedeno for the shortstop job! Oh how the mighty* have fallen.

*According to ESPN.

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 8, 2009 12:44 PM PST reply actions  

I had no idea Bobby Crosby was still in the league.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 8, 2009 12:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Was used in a utility role by the A's this season.

Mostly at third and first. Worth -.7 wins overall. Not surprised to see Beane let him go.

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 8, 2009 12:57 PM PST up reply actions  

from yesterday:

@keithlaw : He can barely walk – he shouldn’t be that hard to catch. RT @mlbtraderumors Pirates Intensify Pursuit Of Bobby Crosby

by msb on Dec 8, 2009 1:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Coincidence?

I think not!

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 8, 2009 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

They haven't for a while.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 8, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Heh, the Rangers wanted Chris Tillman from the Orioles for Millwood.

Does Daniels think that MacPhail is stupid or something?

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 8, 2009 1:38 PM PST reply actions  

Any official terms?

Also, wooo! I hope he annoys the hell out of someone else for the next few years like he has annoyed me.

by EnglishMariner on Dec 8, 2009 1:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Well I have no sense of direction...

…so I just stopped and pointed at the panorama of Safeco hanging just above my computer monitor…

SHOW FiFi THE MONEY!!!!

by PositivePaul on Dec 8, 2009 3:40 PM PST up reply actions  

.

Safeco Field, Opening Day Panorama Composite

SHOW FiFi THE MONEY!!!!

by PositivePaul on Dec 8, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh that's good

“if you think of him as a 4th outfielder this is a great deal for us”

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 8, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Exactly

It’s amazingly stupid. Everyone else thought he was a starter and up and coming star to boot, if you knew something they didn’t shut the fuck up until you’ve stolen a bunch of stuff from someone else for him.

by OlSalty on Dec 8, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Scott Boras on XM today:

"You have Beltre who’s averaging 25 to 30 home runs in Seattle. He is the best defensive third baseman in Major League Baseball. He’s 30 years old and third baseman, as you know, play at high levels at older ages. So there’s a lot of interest in Adrian Beltre. He has a lot of choices. And, certainly, Seattle is one of those teams that continues to show interest in him. And so he’s a young man that few teams have and we’re certainly going to evaluate the marketplace for him."

by msb on Dec 8, 2009 2:33 PM PST reply actions  

YAHOO!'S TIM BROWN SPECULATING SILVA-FOR-BRADLEY SWAP

There have been rumors of a surprise new team in the Bradley sweepstakes, and Seattle is a “possible” destination.

Oh god let this happen.

by ManifestDestiny on Dec 8, 2009 2:43 PM PST reply actions  

FROM TIM BROWN'S MOUTH TO GOD'S EAR

OH MY FUCKING GOD IF ZDURIENCIK PULLS THIS OFF HE IS A FUCKING WIZARD WITH A 12" WAND

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 8, 2009 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

I should hav phrased this as

from Tim Brown’s drug-addled sleep deprived imagination to god’s ear.

Overexcited I guess.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 8, 2009 3:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Given that they could probably get Burrell

I find this unlikely without us throwing in a prospect or something.

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Dec 8, 2009 2:48 PM PST up reply actions  

WHAT

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by Corco on Dec 8, 2009 2:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Rangers are no longer interested according to Sherman

Rays wouldn’t be the surprise team since they’ve been connected to him all along. If this is true, I cannot wait for fanfest. Not only for a Milton Bradley appearance but to perform verbal fellatio on the front office for two straight days.

by edddgar on Dec 8, 2009 2:57 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Oh God please yes

My Mariners blog - SodoMojo, Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!

by gregrabble on Dec 8, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions  

This is the worst thing I've ever heard.

Because now I’m going to refresh Twitter every 5 seconds for the next 96 hours just to see if there is any chance this went down. Thanks. My week is now ruined.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 8, 2009 5:52 PM PST up reply actions  

I would imagine Cammy would move for us.

I’m pretty sure he still loves Seattle. Far from certain that Jack will pay him as much as the competition though. There may be better places to spend our money, as much as I love Cameron.

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Dec 8, 2009 3:08 PM PST up reply actions  

That would be awesome.

Really, really awesome.

Fuck Anaheim.

by Eyeball Kid on Dec 8, 2009 3:29 PM PST up reply actions  

???

PLEASE! PLEASE MAKE FELIZ GO FAR FAR AWAY!

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Dec 8, 2009 3:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Kind of yeah.

Rangers have no money, trade good young players for guy about to hit arby payday?

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 8, 2009 3:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Jay!

What’re you gonna do now?

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 8, 2009 5:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Hmmm...

Not sure why I’m posting this, but Ryan Church was DFA’d to make room for Soriano. I’ve always thought he was decent.

SHOW FiFi THE MONEY!!!!

by PositivePaul on Dec 8, 2009 3:53 PM PST reply actions  

Drayer was probably as flummoxed as we were about the rumor.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 8, 2009 4:08 PM PST up reply actions  

If we got Cubs T-shirts for Silva I'd be happy.

Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.

p.s. fuck you angels

by InSpokane on Dec 8, 2009 4:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Mobile rec!

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Dec 8, 2009 4:17 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

The commenters at AZ Snakepit actually like this deal.

I can’t fathom why.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 8, 2009 4:35 PM PST reply actions  

I was puzzled too

I thought that was one of the better SBN blogs?

Fuck Anaheim.

by Eyeball Kid on Dec 8, 2009 4:36 PM PST up reply actions  

I stopped reading that thread when someone brought up the Verducci Rule.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 8, 2009 4:41 PM PST up reply actions  

"If everyone thinks this deal is so bad, the Front Office must know something nobody else does"

seems to be the justification

which is retarded

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by Corco on Dec 8, 2009 4:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Classic appeal to authority fallacy.

Maybe they’re just hiding the pain.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 8, 2009 4:42 PM PST up reply actions  

I've avoided the DBacks online community for years because of two reasons:

1.They are retarded.
2.They are obsessed with Eric Byrnes and won’t shut the fuck up about him.

FUCK THE DBACKS!

by Goose on Dec 8, 2009 4:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Seems to me that the Granderson trade hurts the Angels ...

… because the Yankees now have fewer trade chips. Accordingly they are nore likely to hit the free agent market for another starter instead of trading.

Which means the price to sing Lackey probably just got a lot higher.

by Steve Nelson on Dec 8, 2009 5:09 PM PST reply actions  

It would if they'd used their prospects to trade for Halladay instead of Granderson.

They have nothing left to trade the Blue Jays now, so they’re going to have to look at free agents if they want to add a pitcher. Having the Yankees involved in the bidding for Lackey could very well drive his price up.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 8, 2009 6:15 PM PST up reply actions  

GOD :(

#Angels exploring trading an infielder, source says, likely M.Izturis, perhaps Kendrick. Aybar, Wood sound untouchable.
http://twitter.com/ed_price/status/6488366310

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Dec 8, 2009 9:34 PM PST reply actions  

Well this has been a boring day for news.

Besides the Yankees/Tiger/DBacks trade, a whole lot of nothing happened today.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 8, 2009 10:29 PM PST reply actions  

Little tidbits here and there to start off the day.

According to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com, the Red Sox are putting themselves in a position to make a run at free agent Adrian Beltre.
First the Red Sox will have to find a suitor for Mike Lowell, which won’t be easy. The guy is 35 years old and is owed $12 million in 2010. On top of it all, he’s an injury risk. Beltre, 30, hit .265/.304/.379 in 2009 while playing superb defense and would fit in well in Boston, but there are hurdles that must be jumped before any deal can come close to happening.

Yankees re-signed LHP Andy Pettitte to a one-year, $11.75 million contract.

FUCK THE DBACKS!

by Goose on Dec 9, 2009 8:04 AM PST reply actions  

That's Beltre gone then. Boston is a great fit for him, imagine how productive he would be off the wall?

They also seem like the type of team that would appreciate his talents and potential upside in the right environment.

by EnglishMariner on Dec 9, 2009 8:09 AM PST up reply actions  

Yuck.

That sucks.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Dec 9, 2009 8:25 AM PST up reply actions  

That's not something I wanted to hear

still, if anyone knows Hardy and what he’s got to offer its Zduriencik its not like he overlooked some kind of hidden value there.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 9, 2009 8:27 AM PST up reply actions  

Carlos Gomez?

Did the Breweres drop their asking price that much?

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 9, 2009 9:38 AM PST up reply actions  

So what happened between then and now

that caused them to figure Gomez sounded like a good deal. I really don’t get that trade. I would have given so much more than Gomez for Hardy.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 9, 2009 9:40 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah I'm just surprised

A little piece of me is sad we got Jack Wilson and didn’t hold out for Hardy at the reduced price. Clement would be a nice piece to slip into our open 1B/DH spot this year.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 9, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions  

Trade deadlines usually give the team with the player in demand leverage.

The Brewers gambled, didn’t get a trade done, and lost their leverage after the season.

by Wilder. on Dec 9, 2009 9:53 AM PST up reply actions  

From that Salk blog post.
-Saying the Mariners have had talks with an agent about a player almost doesn’t count as news here. One agent told me that Jack Zduriencik has been legitimately interested in virtually everyone available! But he went on to rave about how easy it has been to work with Jack. He went out of his way to say that Jack has been the "most direct and upfront general manager" he has dealt with here in Indianapolis. He also mentioned that Jack seems to be heading two paths simultaneously (in terms of acquiring bats and arms), but that the team seems equally willing to down either direction. I love that! It keeps all of your options open, and allows you to maintain leverage in any negotiation. And it jibes entirely with what Jack told us yesterday: that he never likes to close doors on any possibility. He believes that one side presents an opportunity, you open dialogue, and if you meet and it works for both sides then you have an agreement. Sounds simple enough, right?

Thats pretty awesome.

by Scruffy Lefty on Dec 9, 2009 9:17 AM PST up reply actions  

I really hope something happens today.

And that something involves our team. And that something is a good thing.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 9, 2009 8:39 AM PST reply actions  

Woo
Ran into an agent with the same agency that represents Rich Harden. The Twins have not been in contact recently and it sounded like the Mariners had a good shot to land him.

http://blogs2.startribune.com/blogs/neal/2009/12/09/morning-update/

You got slurved!

by Slurvey on Dec 9, 2009 9:08 AM PST reply actions  

HELL YES!

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Dec 9, 2009 9:12 AM PST up reply actions  

Woohoo!

Harden is exciting, and so is NEWS.

by xero3k on Dec 9, 2009 9:13 AM PST up reply actions  

What kind of deal are we talking here?

1/$9M? 1/$8M with some vesting option for like 2/20 ish?

by seattlebruin on Dec 9, 2009 9:28 AM PST up reply actions  

I'm amazed.
Playing baseball in your backyard doesn’t count Tom. Being a math geek guarnatees you 2 things in this life one your not getting laid and two your arguments are flawed by numbers that don’t pass the eye test. In watching a baseball game Curtis Granderson is a very average ball player who has batted over.300 once and has never had an OBP over .370 despite averaging well over 130 K’s a year for a guy batting lead off.

by abender20 on Dec 9, 2009 9:48 AM PST up reply actions  

I can walk you through that school's entire cirriculum

“math equations that you made up”
“you never have sex”
“do you even know what the sun looks like”
“tell your mom I said hi when you come up from the basement”
“have you ever actually seen baseball before”
“I bet you didn’t get cut from the team in high school like I did!”
“fag”

by seattlebruin on Dec 9, 2009 10:01 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

So w/r/t the Morosi Tweets...

This one followed by this one

Lopez and Silva for Guillen & GEORGE SHERRILL! Dodgers get Lopez & Silva, M’s get Guillen & Sherrill, Tigers get Pierre. If it takes adding someone like French or Vargas to the pot that goes to the Dodgers (although they’d be adding a little salary, which they don’t want to do — hence them also swapping Sherrill out who will make some decent cash in arbitration), then fine…

SHOW FiFi THE MONEY!!!!

by PositivePaul on Dec 9, 2009 10:24 AM PST reply actions  

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