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Around SBN: NFL Week One: Previews and Predictions for all 15 games

Actually More on Brandon League

No fooling this time. I promise.

I covered the Brandon Morrow is not as highly valued as we thought angle already. Now, I wanted to actually take a look at Brandon League and see what reasons I could find that might tell us why Jack Zduriencik wanted him here.

Brandon League in 2009 was a very different pitcher than ever before. Relief pitchers are extreme volatile commodities and so departures, even radical ones, from the norm have to be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism. The development of a new pitch, some sort of changeup or splitter, was credited with the success but we have all read enough of those stories to know not to simply trust what people say. Instead, I went digging into my pitch database for information.

League had settled in around the 8% swinging strike rate from 2005 through 2008. That jumped to over 14% last season. That's a monumental increase and that he sustained it over 1,105 pitches is encouraging. With that rise in missed bats came the expected increase in strikeouts. League punched out nearly a quarter of all batters faced after being about a 15% strikeout guy previously. Astoundingly, League recorded just six called strikeouts in 2009. The other 70 strikeouts were of the swinging variety.

Those extra strikeouts came as a result of League's new pitch. In 2008 a whopping 79% of League's pitches were over 95 miles per hour. 15% fell in the 85-90 bucket, almost entirely his slider. In 2009, those two figures were 40% and 23% as League was much more spread out in his velocity histogram. The increase in off speed pitches was also shifted away from his slider (which actually showed little horizontal break) and toward his changeup/splitter which acts more like you'd expect a change to, breaking slightly in toward right-handed hitters.

League threw his new pitch roughly 315 times last season, 128 times (41%) for a ball, which is bad but an astounding 35% of the time for a swing and a miss. League used this pitch on approximately 55 of his swinging strikeouts. That gives me a lot of hope that League's step forward is sustainable. For at least as long as League keeps that pitch effective, it's clearly a dynamite strikeout pitch.

How dynamite? And how astounding is that 35% figure? I wanted to know so I grouped every pitcher and pitch type together and then figured out how often each pitcher-pitch grouping was swung at and missed. Essentially, I created a ranking of the most unhittable pitches. Where does Brandon League's splange rank on that list?

Brandon League's off speed pitch was number 1.

Pause and read that again. Let it sink in. I had to put it in bold I was so excited. No pitcher in baseball last year threw any pitch that generated a higher percentage of swings and misses than Brandon League's splitter/change did. Second best was Ryan Madson's changeup, at 30%. League didn't just lead the Majors, his lead was so big, he was jogging the last quarter mile.

I wouldn't expect League to hold onto all of the gains he made in 2009. It's simply too difficult to keep missing that many bats and striking out that many people. But the amount that he embraced his new off speed pitch and the sheer level of it's effectiveness means we could be in for some fun in 2010 and beyond.

Wait, one more thing...

 

Star-divide

 

Happy holidays, everyone.

3 recs  |  Comment 63 comments |

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And made it 30% better.

Lowe’s changeup last year was swung at and missed 27% of the time. That was down to 14% this year :(

Which also goes to show that League’s no lock to maintain such a fantastic stat line. It’s just nice that he has so far to fall. Mark Lowe’s fall was skydiving-without-a-parachute like and even still he was effective last season.

by Matthew on Dec 24, 2009 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

41%+35%=76%

That means that whenever League threw that pitch, he was throwing it out-of-the-zone. Hitters either lay off or check their swing. (Look at that linked video. Both those hitters knew it was a bad idea about halfway through the swing.)

That’s a nasty pitch. The fact that he gets balls on it 41% of the time matters a lot less when it’s thrown as a strikeout pitch on 0-2.

by robbbbbb on Dec 24, 2009 4:00 PM PST reply actions  

That's an important thing to remember with a pitch like this

The strike% usually won’t be that high because the pitcher is presumably using it for strikeouts a lot of the time.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 24, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Just looked up his pitch values on Fangraphs

It looks like his fastball is just average-ish. It’s the change that’s the killer.

I suspect he uses the fastball to get ahead of hitters and then the changeup to put ‘em away. That’s probably not a completely predictable pattern, but look for it when he comes to the mound early on.

by robbbbbb on Dec 24, 2009 4:09 PM PST up reply actions  

I understand that

No, I’m totally with you there. What I was saying is that the high incidence of balls indicates that he’s keeping that pitch out of the zone.

by robbbbbb on Dec 24, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Unusual location for the change, inside to a lefty...

But I guess it was well inside, and it dives down very nicely. Look at the glove of the catcher…

by EnglishMariner on Dec 25, 2009 4:52 AM PST up reply actions  

The lefty powerhouse area supposedly.

But it just drops down beautifully it’s an area most lefties like to swing at but then he just drops a change-up it’s so amazing.

You got slurved!

by Slurvey on Dec 25, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions  

That's actually a very good pitch

The inside changeup. Mainly because it just is so rarely thrown.

by vivaelpujols on Dec 25, 2009 10:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Damn.

That’s all I have to say. Just….damn.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 25, 2009 11:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Matthew must be butter

because he’s on a roll

ZSwing%: "The rate at which a player wife-swaps with Jack Zduriencik." --- Vatinius

by .Taylor on Dec 24, 2009 5:34 PM PST reply actions  

True

Similarly, butter can go on many things other than rolls, such as a muffin top.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 26, 2009 12:14 AM PST up reply actions  

This post made me feel a lot better about the trade!

This Brandon League guy is pretty good. I guess threre is a reasonably good chance he will end up being better than Morrow.

by ARock on Dec 24, 2009 6:13 PM PST reply actions  

Unfortunately for Marrow,

the way Z seems to predict thing, see JJ last year, he will most likely have a really bad year for the Blue Jays

by stufr on Dec 24, 2009 7:11 PM PST reply actions  

I kant seem to spel

Its Morrow and I meant to say predict things…
Guess you have to cut yourself off of the Jack when you are getting Santa stuff together

by stufr on Dec 24, 2009 7:13 PM PST reply actions  

how much do players scout a pitcher

when a pitcher adds a new pitch and it is successful I find my self wondering if there is a surprise factor. Is part of the success from the fact that players aren’t used to that pitch from that pitcher, and that it’s not part of the scouting report?

It seems like major league teams would make a point of the fact that a particular pitcher they might face has a new pitch that’s striking people out. But if you’ve hit against League a few times, maybe you don’t really study a scouting report and you get caught off guard?

maybe I’m overestimating the number of times players face particular pitchers, and those players’ memories (especially for relievers).

by Snuffleupagus on Dec 25, 2009 1:24 AM PST reply actions  

Exactly my question

As I read this post I was wondering the same thing – will word of League’s pitch selection render him less effective in 2010? Does anyone have helpful information about this?

After reading Matthew’s excellent post, – thanks for little to no insight on League, Seattle Times – I feel reasonably good about this trade, but have the lingering question about the “surprise factor”.

by TommyC on Dec 25, 2009 9:38 AM PST up reply actions  

As a former aspiring professional baseball player...

I can definately say that ball clubs do extensively scout every other player on every other team that they will face, (GMs try to do so for everyone if they can for offseason purposes) especially in the big leagues.
That being said, League developed this new pitch that is striking everybody out, and doesn’t throw it for a strike all that often. As a hitter, my aproach would be, if I can’t hit your pitch, I’m not gonna swing at it. Whether it’s with 2 strikes or not, I want to make him throw me another pitch.
Obviously it’s easier said than done, because you have to recognize that pitch first, and he’s gotten some very good hitters looking foolish.
So my thought is, his stuff is nasty and most importantly repeatable (something we could not consistently say about Morrow), and he has the ability to adapt, improve and ‘pitch’, rather than just throw.
I think Morrow was a thrower, it seems to me League is a Pitcher.

by skwid206 on Dec 25, 2009 3:10 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Note from Drayer on wed:

“Plenty of input went into this move with Rick Adair who coached League in AA and Todd Greene who saw him as an advance scout for Tampa Bay last season, each putting in good words. Then there was Tony Blengino. While the scouts liked the arm Tony provided numbers that completed the picture. A 4.58 era may be somewhat alarming on the surface but the FIP was 3.58. His xFIP was 3.16. And how about this from the Mariners press release. League posted a 2.30 on grass last year. His career groundball rate of 3.25 ranks 2nd-best among relievers with a minimum of 150 appearances since his debut in 2004. All good stuff.”

by msb on Dec 25, 2009 7:44 AM PST reply actions  

Interesting point about the grass

Despite seeing a bunch of Jays games on TV every year, I tend to forget how many of their games are on turf (with Tampa in the same division as well) and what effect that can have on groundballs (and GB-oriented pitchers).

by wandergeist on Dec 29, 2009 10:57 PM PST up reply actions  

We can all sleep good tonight

You’re article explains it. I was one who wanted to give Morrow the fifth spot and say, have fun kid. He was so mismanaged that he never got a real chance to shine. This could have been the year he could have turned into a super star pitcher from the late rotation starter spot. So the League trade was a head scratcher.

League is the up and coming middle reliever stud you dream about AND the pitcher friendly confines of Safco will add to his potential dominance.

Now sign Bedard and Branyon and one more sure fire bat and let’s win us some rings.

by Emperor_Doom on Dec 25, 2009 9:04 AM PST reply actions  

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