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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

Where The Mariners Stand As Of Right Now

Most players aren't big additions. Cliff Lee's a little different. With the understanding that these are nothing more than educated approximations:

Mswithlee_medium

You can quibble with individual projections if you want to. I don't claim to hold the truth in my hands. But while one or seven of them may be off by a little bit, I think the overall picture is reasonably accurate, and the overall picture puts us around 85 wins. In other words, unless I'm way off, the Seattle Mariners right now are a mid-80s win team on true talent, and that's before accounting for whatever additional moves they make for a first baseman, a DH, and/or anything else. They do still have something like $10m(ish) to work with, assuming no sudden bump in payroll. Bring in, I dunno, Nick Johnson or re-sign Russell Branyan or whatever and all of a sudden we're getting dangerously close to 90. And who the hell knows what other aces Jack might have up his sleeve?

I don't know where the Angels or Rangers (or A's) stand in this regard, as I haven't done that analysis. But what I can tell you is that none of our divisional competition is much better than us, as Cliff Lee just made the M's better by several wins. By the end of the offseason, the Mariners very well may be considered the favorites to win the AL West. And I mean legitimate favorites.

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If Saunders breaks out, that's probably an extra win as well.

On the other hand I still think it’s doubtful Loafie starts 2010 in Mariner blue. Bringing Beltre back looks like it would add a win or two. If Morrow finally turns into a major league starter or Snell gets over his control issues that right there could move them into high 80s-low 90s.

Then again, I remember playing these games with the M’s way back into the 1980s. It never worked out as well as I’d hoped. Granted that we all knew a lot less about baseball then compared to now, and I knew a lot less about it than the average fan, given that I was a teenager.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 16, 2009 12:50 PM PST reply actions  

And we're not done!!!

WE’RE NOT DONE!!!!

Jack Z is a shiny golden god of a GM.

by SethGrandpa on Dec 16, 2009 12:50 PM PST reply actions  

I think you're a tad optimistic on some of these,

but my independent spreadsheet has us at 83.75 WAR, so we’re pretty close.

by Matthew on Dec 16, 2009 12:51 PM PST reply actions  

Figgins and Guti get small boosts for baserunning

RRS may be high by 0.5-1 wins depending on durability, and Wilson could get hurt at any moment…

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 16, 2009 12:52 PM PST up reply actions  

I've wasted a dollar on stupider shit than this

next time I’m in Vegas I’m going to test that theory out.

by pdb on Dec 16, 2009 1:54 PM PST up reply actions  

You have a better shot of winning and really hurting vegas with bets on a big underdog

When the Rays made the WS, vegas had to muck with the lines all through the playoffs to try to balance the massive hit they were going to take if all the 65:1 winners collected.

by arbeck77 on Dec 16, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions  

It doesn't take a lot to kill a vegas sport's book

If you read The Odds by Chad Millman you’ll discover the books almost all were about to get killed by the Rams in 99.

by arbeck77 on Dec 16, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

It wasn't that it was out of nowhere.

They had a very good team, everyone knew that, it was that their QB, who literally had a perfect QB rating through 2 or 3 preseason games destroyed his knee and they replaced him with a guy who had thrown 11 NFL passes and completed 4 of them for 39 yards. Not to mention he was 28 and was stocking groceries only a few years earlier. So when Trent Green went down and Dick Vermeil said Kurt Warner is our QB and we’re going to rally around him, everyone thought they were done.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Dec 16, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, but they signed Trent Green, who appeared to be good and was once he recovered.

Traded for Faulk in his prime and drafted Holt. They had a buzz and then Greens knee killed it all along with the fact that no one but the Rams thought Kurt Warner had any skills at all.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Dec 16, 2009 2:55 PM PST up reply actions  

They were able to set the lines well enough in the SB

They were like 100-1 to win the SB, and the books were on the line for a tons of money. But they got the lines for the game good enough so that they only lost some money and didn’t go bankrupt.

by arbeck77 on Dec 16, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Hopefully this sticks

Lopez for Doumit
Hudson to 2B
Branyan to 1B/DH
Morrow for 1B/DH Zgasm

by coreyjro on Dec 16, 2009 12:52 PM PST reply actions  

As much as I liked Branyan...

I would really, really prefer if the M’s went out and got someone who isn’t coming off of a back injury he may not recover from and who doesn’t have the obvious old player skills. Granted, first basemen as a group tend to have old players’ skills but TTO guys are the extreme version. So, Nick Johnson please.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 16, 2009 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I see that.

As Johnson isn’t exactly injury-free. I still prefer his skillset to Branyan’s. Also, it would drive Geoff Baker up the wall to replace a potential 30 HR guy with a 10-20 HR guy who walks a lot.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 16, 2009 1:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Get Johnson and Branyan. Given the roughly 15 million remaining in payroll

flexibility, why not just get them both in here. That would put us up at 90 wins.

I tend to think Saunders will give us a little more than +1.

by Rudy4three on Dec 16, 2009 12:55 PM PST reply actions  

"none of our divisional competition is much better than us,"

Don’t let the Angels fans see that!

This looks good Jeff, I just hope our catching position doesn’t bring us despair throughout the season.

Carlos Silvelite

by OceanBird on Dec 16, 2009 12:56 PM PST reply actions  

This is pretty much what I was guesstimating*

And I guess we add a 1B for two more wins or so and maybe a DH for one more but then it gets tricky. So I was kinda thinking that with two all-stars on the staff and some real depth in 5th starter types, we’re in a pretty good position to take a flyer on one of the fragile rms on the market. Is it too soon to start clamoring for Bedard to come back?

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 12:57 PM PST reply actions  

I was thinking about Bedard too...

Very high risk, but if the price is right, why not? If he could return to his greatness…oh man, Felix/Lee/Bedard. Yikes.

Carlos Silvelite

by OceanBird on Dec 16, 2009 12:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Right, he'd be cheap

and with the money we have left we’re not adding any dramatic talent to the lineup

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 1:00 PM PST up reply actions  

I know...

You guys are going to jump down my throat here, but how do you convert a WAR number to an amount of wins…sorry for being a boob…

by SebastianPruiti on Dec 16, 2009 12:57 PM PST reply actions  

Welp...

meant to type noob…but boob works too I guess…

by SebastianPruiti on Dec 16, 2009 12:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Boob is actually much better than noob

WAR is wins in terms or player value. A replacement level team… oh dammit

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

WAR = wins above replacement

On the team level, take total WAR and add it to 48 (or something around there)

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 16, 2009 12:58 PM PST up reply actions  

From one noob to another...

WAR = wins above replacement. Start with 50 wins, which is about how many games you’d win if you stocked your team with nothing but freely available AAAA talent, and add the WARs. The above post has the M’s at around 86 wins (actually less because replacement level is really only around 47 or 48 victories).

by Johnny Slick on Dec 16, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Actually, we had about $16 million before today

We have to pay Lee’s $9 million dollar salary so we’re down to about $6 million. Time to go dumpster diving.

by mebpenguin on Dec 16, 2009 12:57 PM PST reply actions  

We had $25 million going into the off-season

We gave Figgins $9 million, perhaps a bit less if we backloaded the deal. Subtract another $9 million for Lee and we’re down to around $7 million.

by mebpenguin on Dec 16, 2009 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

I've written about this

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/11/14/1157498/where-we-stand-with-regard-to-the

That – 2 minimums + Figgins + Lee = $83-88m, and we’re projected for a payroll somewhere around $98m or so

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 16, 2009 1:03 PM PST up reply actions  

They better

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

The economy isn't doing well, and attendance isn't going to bounce back that fast.

Attendance LAGS team quality. While the M’s were decent last year, they realistically weren’t in the race after May, only being peripherally near it through July-August.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 16, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions  

But attendance last year didn't drop off nearly as much as it was expected to (the team admitted as much)

and the economy is showing all kinds of signs of improvement relative to this time last year. They saved money last year when Washburn was shipped off and they cut the payroll by nearly 20% expecting income to nosedive, which it didn’t. If they had any scruples they would raise payroll to ~105-100.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Tickets sold may not have dropped.

Real attendance plummeted though which is a precursor to even fewer tickets selling the following year.

by Sec 108 on Dec 16, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

But wins?!

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 2:20 PM PST up reply actions  

But you don't need $120 million to have a good roster in this division.

Sure, it would be lovely to give Zduriencik the cash Bavasi had. It may not be prudent business management in a down economy, though, or needed, plus there are some bad potential signings (say, like Jason Bay to a Bavasi-style long term deal). I think adding some low-risk talent to 1B/DH and the bullpen, and this team is fine for a shot at making the playoffs, and we have something (ace pitchers) that tends to serve teams VERY well in the playoffs.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 16, 2009 2:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Exactly.

To put this another way, last year, the economy was falling off of a building. This year, it’s on the ground with various broken bones and internal injuries. It’s not falling any more, but consumer spending isn’t going to be like it was back a couple of years ago, either, especially with persistent high unemployment and a need to pay down debt.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 16, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure no one wants to repeat 2008

including the people signing the checks.

Maybe it’s because we leave off all the zeros. Maybe it’s because MLB teams play around with so much money that it’s hard for us to conceive how much they’re actually playing with. But $5,000,000 is a lot of fucking money, even if you own a baseball team. And we’re talking about significantly more than $5,000,000. Think of going to your boss and saying “Hey boss, the department I’m in needs a 9% budget increase.” What would you have to follow that with in order to convince your boss you were right?

by philosofool on Dec 16, 2009 1:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, my numbers show us with some more room too

But the $25 million number was what Dave’s been using so I’ve been running with that.

by mebpenguin on Dec 16, 2009 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

After Lee, BEFORE Felix,

and figuring about 7-8 between Gutz, Aardsma, and Lowe, and we are at $75 million, per Cots.

I still think we’ve got enough for two bats.

Beltre and N. Johnson?

by tait644 on Dec 16, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions  

Are we sure the Mariners have $10-15 million to work with?

The projected budget left us with $25 million this offseason. With the Figgins signing ($9 million) and the Lee acquisition ($9 million), that leaves roughly $7 million.

by Wilder. on Dec 16, 2009 12:59 PM PST reply actions  

ZOMG SQUEE SIGN JASON BAY

In all seriousness, though, we’re in good shape: a couple of decent pieces (Loafie and Morrow) that are capable of bringing back something in trade, and two positions (DH and 1B) where finding ~2 WAR players at each of them shouldn’t break any banks (and if you really want to go wild, 3 if you think Saunders could go to AAA). And that’s if there’s only 7 million or so left in payroll- if the payroll number is higher, you have even more flexibility.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 16, 2009 1:47 PM PST reply actions  

Doesn't a 2 win DH mean a 4 win bat?

those are pretty hard to find for 8-9M.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Again, hard to do for ~10M when the positional penalty comes out to 32 runs.

so you’re talking about 80 runs above replacement on hitting and 1B defense. Only way to get that done as I see it is Gonzalez plus Branyan or so.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I was probably being optimistic thinking of ideal seasons from Branyan and a Nick Johnson

I suppose a 3.5/1.5 breakdown from those two could be conceivable, but it’s more likely they’d be between 3-4 wins combined at 1B and DH

by Rudy4three on Dec 16, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

You may have a point...

Thome was only a 1.5 WAR player at DH, and he’s kind of the prototype for what you’d be looking for. Though there are TONS of 2+ WAR players in LF/1B.

Maybe the better way to look at it would be “two bats who can rotate between 1B/DH/LF without being complete defensive boat anchors and contribute 4-5 wins”.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 16, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions  

RP being only 2 WAR?

Aardsma was worth 1.9 by himself last year. Are you assuming he regresses a half win or so, and the rest of the bullpen has either nearly no value or negative value? Just wondering how you got there, not saying it’s wrong.

by BrettJMiller on Dec 16, 2009 1:50 PM PST reply actions  

Aardsma regression and conservative projections of the rest

They could end up around 3 or maybe even four, but I’d rather be cautious. Bullpens are unpredictable, and when faced with unpredictability, regress to the mean.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 16, 2009 1:54 PM PST up reply actions  

It sort of confirms something I've thought

which is it would be nice to inject additional talent into the bullpen. A bullpen add, and a couple of guys who could swing between DH/1B/LF, and we’d be set.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 16, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions  

Whats the more likely scenario?

Sign a guy or trade Morrow/Loafie for a guy?

by shumagorath on Dec 16, 2009 1:56 PM PST reply actions  

To what, the Cliff Lee deal?

The easiest part of the deal was the Phillies signing Halladay to an extension. The difficult part was deciding which prospects were to be swapped.

by Wilder. on Dec 16, 2009 2:13 PM PST up reply actions  

So, this Baker post makes it sound like Lee fell into Z's lap

Zduriencik first approached on Cliff Lee deal days into winter meetings

It was right about that time — Zduriencik says it was two or three days after his arrival on Sunday — that he was approached by Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. with an early Christmas gift.

Zduriencik knew full well Amaro wanted to acquire Roy Halladay from the Toronto Blue Jays, something he’d been working on since last summer. But what Amaro said next got Zduriencik’s deal glands salivating.

“He said ‘Look, if I’m able to do Halladay, would you be able to do Cliff Lee?’ ’’ Zduriencik said in a conference call with reporters moments ago.

Zduriencik managed to keep his head from falling off as he nodded vigorously.

Even if the deal was a “Christmas gift”, I still credit Z for having established himself and the M’s to the point that a team would approach him to take Cliff Lee off their hands. Then he had to thread the needle with the right prospect package, without giving up any near-MLB ready guys. AND he didn’t bite on Harden’s contract demands in the first place, ending up with a healthy Cy Young winner instead. Incredible

by lemonverbena on Dec 16, 2009 2:14 PM PST reply actions  

Adding Harden to this roster makes it a 86-88 win team

I think a 3 win pitcher is the second easiest way to improve at this point (easiest being to sign a 1B that isn’t a ginger).

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 2:22 PM PST up reply actions  

For sure.

But with a full season of Jack Wilson defense, doesn’t the back end of the rotation get a boost from last year’s numbers? We might not need to add a 3-win pitcher to our rotation at this point, which is awesome.

by Wilder. on Dec 16, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions  

This is going to be a really exciting year

The AL West is probably going to be a complete toss-up, if we aren’t the best.

by OlSalty on Dec 16, 2009 2:43 PM PST reply actions  

I almost don't like it when Zduriencik talks to the media

because when he’s talking to the media, he can’t be actively working on deals.

Batted .393/.614/.464 for 2009 Diablos, #5 in OBP for PSSBL Rocky Division.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Dec 16, 2009 2:49 PM PST reply actions  

Stone:
Look for Mariners to announce new deal for Ryan Langerhans today or tomorrow.

Twitter

by Graham MacAree on Dec 16, 2009 2:51 PM PST reply actions  

Sweet

My Mariners blog - SodoMojo, Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!

by gregrabble on Dec 16, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions  

How much would a reasonable Felix extension knock down our financial flexibility?

Say we sign him for 5/$85, that works out to $17/yr which means we only have ~$2m to work with instead of ~$10, correct?

by sammy on Dec 16, 2009 3:01 PM PST reply actions  

The Felix money is already accounted for in seperately

They know they have to pay his arbitration salary already and what it should be. An extension would buy out his arb years at market value, I’d assume.

by Brian Floyd on Dec 16, 2009 3:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Wouldn't it be more proper to regress some of those projections?

And also reduce playing time for all players to account for injury risk? This would be especially meaningful for pitchers. Maybe you already did that for Felix and Lee, but those projections seem to be pretty high on the optimism scale when you figure in some regression and injury risk, as well as some aging for Lee.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 16, 2009 3:27 PM PST reply actions  

You could knock Felix and Lee both down to 5 without much argument

but, to be honest, I don’t think you’re going to change the overall picture very much. And who knows, I may be underestimating Morrow/Snell.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 16, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Or the bullpen and bench.

Griffey’s pretty useless, but I could see Hannahan/Hall chipping in 2 WAR, and the bullpen being more like 2-3 WAR if things go well.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 16, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions  

I think he was more or less meaning the whole bench

It looks like we have a pretty good bench and can count on a good contribution from them

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 16, 2009 3:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh yeah, whoops

I read that as just Hannahan, and completely blanked on seeing Hannahan/Hall

by seattlebruin on Dec 16, 2009 3:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I can't wait to see Cliff Lee in a M's uniform.

Will they be giving a press conference on it?

You got slurved!

by Slurvey on Dec 16, 2009 4:02 PM PST reply actions  

Maybe

Trade acquisitions sometimes just get a conference call with reporters. No contract to sign, so no requirement to fly into town.

by lemonverbena on Dec 16, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Man, I love our rotation. I'd be excited to see any of those dude pitch.

I mean, if Morrow and Snell figure it out…..hoooooo boy. Could be a damn good rotation.

by r0ry on Dec 16, 2009 4:32 PM PST reply actions  

Why is Lee a 6 WAR player?

Most have him at 5 WAR, slightly below Felix. Felix and Lee are nice at the top of the rotation, but we still have a below average 3, 4 ,5 starter and our pen is pretty weak, given that you are going to see Aardsma regress. Aumont is gone. The pitching overall is average, and we scored the lowest number of runs in 2009! This team now is not better than the 2009 Mariners.

by brian_sun on Dec 16, 2009 4:44 PM PST reply actions  

The pen was only given 2 WAR for the whole staff.

That’s not exactly a huge amount of winnage. As for the lowest number of runs, well, regression to the mean works both ways. I expect catcher to be less of a complete black hole because it would be very hard for it to become more of one. Also left field.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 16, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions  

The Mariners today are better than the Mariners yesterday.

That’s the important thing. There is also a lot more the team can do. I highly doubt that the “current” Mariners starting lineup will be the lineup we see on Opening Day.

SEA!

by MFAN on Dec 16, 2009 4:53 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't expect

Below average production from RRS.

by Ballard Erik on Dec 16, 2009 5:04 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure you're underestimating our rotation.

Seriously, look around at the other teams in baseball and see how many of them had poor pitching beyond their first two guys. Our 3 to 5 guys (whomever it ends up being) are probably at least average among all baseball teams.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 16, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions  

The 2009 Mariners received 37 WAR from its players

The team above has an estimated total of 37 WAR.

Last year’s Mariners weren’t bad and we’re still not finished.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 16, 2009 6:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I haven't heard much about Hannahan/Hall lately.

I always liked the idea of them platooning this year. It seems like you might be able to come close to matching Lopez’s 2010 production by pairing those two in a platoon (either at 2B or move Chone to 2B and platoon at 3B). Somebody has to like Lopez as a trade chit.

In another thought, I agree with the sentiment that the cheapest way to add wins on the FA market seems to be at 1B or with another starting pitcher. I still wouldn’t mind the M’s going after Bedard/Sheets some other high risk/reward guy on the mound.

by FlaskInSafeco on Dec 16, 2009 5:06 PM PST reply actions  

Went over to Halos Heaven to see what their reaction would be to the Cliff Lee deal....

It was my first time poking around another MLB SBN blog and for some silly reason I have always thought that all other SBN blogs would be like Lookout Landing, where user comments are mostly based on sound analytical reasoning and the occasional snark. People disagree here often, but when they do they either base their arguments on sound logic or get corrected by the community fairly quickly.

Let me tell you, my eyes are still bleeding Angel red after reading some of the comments over there. It was like reading an ESPN or Seattle Times comment page, where there are a few sane users fighting a current of ignorance. I am now actually stupider for having gone there. Some gems that I encountered:

1. Cliff Lee will not have success against the AL West.
2. Angels have nothing to worry about because all Lee will do is replace the production from Bedard and Washburn. Thus the Mariners are not contenders.
3. Some posters actually think that this is Bedard all over again for us.

I feel bad that I’ve taken sites like this and USSM for granted. To Jeff, Graham, Matthew, and the short lived reign of Robert as a mod, thank you for making this place so great.

by tintin on Dec 16, 2009 5:58 PM PST reply actions  

No one's shocked.

They’re just annoyed since you’re such an awful poster and bring nothing to the community and no one likes you.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 16, 2009 7:37 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

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