A Friendly Reminder
by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 15, 2009 3:41 PM PST
in Seattle Mariners Stats
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PrintDespite the widespread enthusiasm over the impending Cliff Lee acquisition, there remains some degree of concern that, while the Mariners are improving their run prevention, what they really need is offense, and that they won't be able to win if they don't score many runs.
I would like to take this opportunity to remind everyone that, for all intents and purposes, a run saved is equal to a run scored. There are small differences, but they're essentially negligible. It's really quite simple to understand. Using the standard Pythagorean W/L equation:
- A team that scores 700 runs and allows 700 runs will be expected to win 50% of its games
- A team that scores 710 runs and allows 700 runs will be expected to win 50.6% of its games
- A team that scores 700 runs and allows 690 runs will be expected to win 50.7% of its games
Cliff Lee represents a monumental upgrade to our starting rotation. If you call him a six-win pitcher, and his addition results in the bouncing of, say, a one-win pitcher from the rotation, then that would be a ~five-win upgrade in the same way that going from Jack Wilson to one year of Hanley Ramirez would be a ~five-win upgrade. It's not meaningfully different. They're both very different paths towards improving the team, but they're equally valid, and they lead to a very similar end result.
As a fan, it can be a lot of fun to break things down and evaluate teams by their different components. But when you're evaluating a transaction, you have to look at the bigger picture. It's not about what helps the offense, or the defense, or the pitching, or the clubhouse. It's about what helps the team overall. And while Cliff Lee isn't coming here to swing a bat, he still makes the Mariners way way better than they were last week.
Look, I get it. Even with Chone Figgins, this offense isn't great, and it could use some help. I imagine Z's going to want to address that over the coming weeks. Just don't let that uncertainty get into your head and take away some of the thrill from a move that is 100%, absolutely fantastic.
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HELL YA
IF ANYONE MAKES IT HAPPEN IT WILL BE JACK Z!
by Scruffy Lefty on Dec 15, 2009 3:55 PM PST up reply actions
It's okay. I remember what you said earlier today about Zduriencik and I'm sure he's already one step ahead of upgrading the lineup as well
by Gihyou on Dec 15, 2009 3:54 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
*Speechless.
A Mariners fan in Seattle
by Coach Owens on Dec 15, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
What I wonder about is where the folksy, home-spun wisdom about pitching and defense winning championships went?
Why are casual fans suddenly demanding home run hitters? This makes quite a change from 10 years ago.
I know. This is why cliches persist - you can always pick and choose and make your bitching sound like it's old-timey baseball wisdom.
I sort of admire the old-school football purists insisting that rushing sets up the pass, and that only nancy boys have offenses built around throwing the ball. Baseball purists are a more malleable set. Or maybe given baseball longer history, there are just more old-school approaches to go around in baseball.
Yeah seriosuly, those football purists need to look at the current NFL.
Good teams are all about top quarterbacks and great passing. Saints/Brees, Colts/Manning, Vikings/Farve, etc.
Meh
Vikings/Farve
To be pedantic, the pass offense is still secondary to the vikings. Brett Favre this year has been primarily a play-action QB, relying on the run game to be effective.
He's been at his best when AP was on.
But Favre has still done well when AP leans toward the ‘bust’ side of his boom-or-bust running.
Fearless Frog jokes are the new black!
by Fearless Frog on Dec 15, 2009 10:16 PM PST up reply actions
Living in San Francisco when Bill Walsh took over as GM ...
… there was tremendous disdain around the league for his “West Coast offense” and his approach of using the pass to set up the run. Until he started ripping off Super Bowl wins.
His belief in that approach was likely what kept him from becoming a head coach in the NFL sooner. He took the job at Stanford because it was the first opportunity he had to be a head coach of a major program.
by Steve Nelson on Dec 15, 2009 5:35 PM PST up reply actions
Not to, like, totally disagree with you but...
The West Coast offense was developed by Walsh and this guy named Paul Brown. It was new and he really need to prove the offense in college as you say but reactionary coaches or no he had a monster pedigree going in. This wasn’t exactly the run and shoot we’re talking about.
by Johnny Slick on Dec 15, 2009 5:38 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe a function of the ballpark
I’d have to think fans of teams that play in a bandbox always assume they just need more pitching and fans of teams in big parks assume the team would be super if they added another bat.
Kind of like how Pedro disagrees with everything Jack Z does and gets mad when he doesn't do something
people just want things to be dfiferent. Doesn’t matter how, just different.
by seattlebruin on Dec 15, 2009 5:26 PM PST up reply actions
Pedro Calderon is a genius
Obp doesn’t matter, figgins is an average player, and he doesn’t understand arbitration and 40 man rosters. He also called everyone racist for not thinking Jose Lopez is the next Matt Williams and thinking Yuni was bad. So yeah, probably the best blogger/ Seattle Times comment troll in the history of the Mariners.
by Ballard Erik on Dec 15, 2009 10:10 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I think that's exactly what he means.
...and now I'm here
Pedro just has a different point of view.
If I understand his position correctly he wants a Pat Gillick type GM with an ownership group that spends like the Yankees. Basically, he wants the Mariners to be something like the Mets.
People that become entrenched in an position were they defend that position everyday don’t just change their stance. Pedro is voicing his disdain of advance baseball statistics as a system. He ignores variables (like the Mariners budget) and cherry picks information (sometimes out of date info) that supports his argument.
Since Pedro is working against a system that isn’t going away. I believe the Mariners new system of roster building would have to be crazy successful to show enough evidence that would make Pedro admit that he has been wrong and that his way of analysis is as flawed as counting RBIs. I wouldn’t expect Pedro to change his stance. He is far more likely to just disappear from the internet.
Not really.
Like with Detect-O-Vision when it was around more, they simply attribute these things to external factors, so they were never really wrong to begin with.
...and now I'm here
Good point.
Everyone has a difficult saying their opinion was wrong. It is in the psyches self-interest to blame outside forces and to bend reality where possible to view the world as you being in the right.
There are a number of theories throughout social psychology on these phenomenon
Which is why people that admit to having flawed views or being mistaken, even after taking a hard stance on the matter, are people that generally make the best decisions (and also tend to be more fun to talk to).
...and now I'm here
I wonder what era you started watching.
Many a mariner fan has been since the Kingdome days. Home runs were expected in that short porch park. Maybe the casual fan got used to it.
I started watching
when they couldn’t pitch, hit, or defend. My Mariners had tridents for a logo.
by chrisisasavage on Dec 15, 2009 10:30 PM PST up reply actions
I kinda want the trident logo back
I think it’s way more badass than the compass
by Cougriculture on Dec 15, 2009 10:32 PM PST up reply actions
I absolutely love the compass.
Although I have some retro trident apparel in my closet somewhere.
Fearless Frog jokes are the new black!
by Fearless Frog on Dec 15, 2009 10:32 PM PST up reply actions
If Jack Z was working that room, I bet Robert* walks away with an out of his league hottie and a few phone numbers for later.
*BTW, I have never met Robert but this is how much I believe in Jack Z.
Have you seen Jack's wife?
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Dec 16, 2009 7:32 AM PST up reply actions
Like the Ichiro/Figgins situation
Felix isn’t goin anywhere
Exactly.
And why would Lee, who is basically working toward a big Free Agent payday, want to pair off against the other teams best pitcher and not the second best pitcher.
Some teams still care about W-L’s, ERA, and that junk. Those teams will love Lee after a season in Safeco Field.
STOP IT
I’ll call it the curse of ToddK.
by chrisisasavage on Dec 15, 2009 10:33 PM PST up reply actions
All beware the evil of ToddK... from whence there is no return.
Unless,of course, you have a Dick’s deluxe and fries before going to bed on that one night that you know you should have quit before those last few drinks.
Hey guys, Just hopping over here from The Good Phight...
As a huge Phils fan, I’m still not sure how i feel about this deal. I should be happy we got Doc, right? (Right???)
Anyway, it doesn’t matter anymore, because it looks like the deal is all but written in stone.
That said – root hard for Cliff! I got really attached to him while he was here in Philly. I’m sure you all saw game 1 of the WS. Goddamn if that wasn’t one of the most beautifully pitched games I had ever seen.
I’ll be rooting for you guys!
Yeah, right there with ya, Coach!
I’ll be rooting for us, too!
Thanks, Mike. I’m excited for Jack to sew this thing up. Really looking forward to seeing Cliff Lee after King Felix.
Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
The part that is good for you as a Phillies fan is...
That you got Halladay and extended him for 3 years for below market value. You lost a year of Cliff Lee but got 4 years of Halladay, and the next 3 years you are getting some discount (if the 3/$60M rumors are true on the extnesion).
You havent totally sacrificed the future, since you get 3 decent (but not top) prospects from the Ms. These are guys in the 5th-10th best prospects range.
Still, I would think that waiting a year and then letting Lee go and trying to sign Halladay then mightve been better.
A lot of people like to call the Phillies, the eastcoast Seattle team, with all the former M's.
So it makes sense Phillie players are coming this way.
Good luck and all bets are off if we see you in the World Series!
Versus the Midwest Seattle Cemetary
That is the Kansas City Royals.
by Ballard Erik on Dec 15, 2009 10:16 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Buzz Kill. I hate reality.
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
Actually I think he's saying that reality is absolutely in our favor.
...and now I'm here
See I read it as we still have no offense and that's ok, but we still have no offense.
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
Ah, I think it was meant to be read as "We just got the equivalent of Hanley Ramirez over Jack Wilson."
And just because it was in pitching instead of hitting doesn’t mean it was not still awesome and equally valuable.
...and now I'm here
See!
Defense is more important by 0.1%! Suck it, naysayers!
Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
If you score 200 runs but give up 0, you will go 162-0!!
The offense would be terrible, but your RS/RA ratio would be amazing.
Great pitching stops great hitting!
I am countering the cliches about needing hits with cliches about needing pitching!
I think that a big part of this attitude around baseball is that all the other sports need a much more organic approach. A basketball team, for example, that shoots the lights out but doesn’t rebound so well or play defense will not win, no matter how well they shoot. On top of that, in order to shoot well they will generally need guys who can shoot from the outside, drive, and score inside. A team that can’t do any one of those three will have issues; one that can’t do two of them will be anemic. Likewise, any good football team really needs some sort of running game to work the clock when they get a lead (I guess the Pats might be something of an exception but even they could run it when they needed to).
But with baseball, you can put together a lineup of 9 guys who hit .260 and walk 100 times a year and they will score runs. Similarly, a team built entirely on pitching and defense can prevent enough runs to win pennants – see the Go-Go Sox of the late 50s as an example. Baseball is a tricky game, sort of a team sport of individuals.
Babe Ruth can only be reincarnated in one body at a time.
As a side note, Felix for DH!
by I Lick Squirrels on Dec 15, 2009 6:45 PM PST up reply actions
Perhaps the recent mentality of fans wanting high powered offenses
comes from the fact that to many, they’re intrinsically more entertaining to watch. Unless it’s a dynamic pitcher like Felix on the mound, I always look forward to the innings where the Mariners are hitting.
I think good defense and strong pitching are more fun to watch than 12-pitch at bats, walks, and the occasional homer.
In fact, one thing I’d really love to see is baseball somehow getting back to the 50s, when games lasted 2, 2 1/2 hours. People talk about pitching changes making so much of a difference but really that only adds probably another 15 minutes to the games at most.
by Johnny Slick on Dec 15, 2009 6:35 PM PST up reply actions
One of my favorite things about the Mariners last year was how quickly their games went.
Excluding the times Tits was pitching, of course.
by I Lick Squirrels on Dec 15, 2009 6:47 PM PST up reply actions
Uh....
The 1950’s were basically “which team is going to hit the homer, and how many guys will be on base?”. Mostly, it was the Yankees or another New York team, which is why NY teams were in EVERY series through 1959. You had low stolen base totals, offense slowly dropped away as the decade went opn and night games and 73 foot pitching mounds came into vogue, plus hitter’s parks (Shibe, League, Ebbets, Polo Grounds) were replaced by pitcher’s parks (this happened in the 60’s as well). Hits and doubles went down. Walks went down as Robin Roberts-style pitchers came into vogue (low BB totals).
Basically, the 1950’s were part of a gradual decrease in offense that culminated in the 1960’s when we entered the second dead-ball era, and you had teams with 600 OPSs. Hmm, entire teams that hit worse than Willie Bloomquist does in an average year. Thanks, but I’ll pass. I’m fine with offense at about where it is now.
by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions
Also...
a big reason why games were faster in the 1950’s was leftover inertia from when you HAD to get games in fast, because if you didn’t, the game was going to be called when the sun went down (no night games).
by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 6:57 PM PST up reply actions
Um...
1. I agree with the way the game was played. It was still much, much faster.
2. Night baseball had arrived in the 30s and was a regular part of the game by the 50s outside of Wrigley Field.
by Johnny Slick on Dec 15, 2009 10:10 PM PST up reply actions
My favorite game of last season was when we blew out the Angles early in the season.
Ichi-slam and all that.
Fearless Frog jokes are the new black!
by Fearless Frog on Dec 15, 2009 10:20 PM PST up reply actions
Angels, even.
Fearless Frog jokes are the new black!
by Fearless Frog on Dec 15, 2009 10:20 PM PST up reply actions
I was there!
It was a fun game.
Griffdog got his 400th with the Mariners, too.
angels fan in seattle
People think we need more power?
Jack Z: Heh.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 15, 2009 6:46 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
I see it this way:
Here’s why our offense was terrible last year:
C: .280 wOBA (27th in MLB)
SS: .262 wOBA (29th in MLB)
3B: .292 wOBA (26th in MLB)
LF: .268 wOBA (30th in MLB)
DH: .327 w0BA (11th in MLB)
Jack Wilson career wOBA: .298
Chone Figgins career wOBA: .339
Michael Saunders projected wOBA, Fans/Bill James: .325
We’ve already improved two lineup spots, three if you have any confidence in Saunders being halfway decent in LF. C offense isn’t likely to get much love unless we sign Doumit, but a competent DH performance will get us a long back back to being OK on offense. We won’t be the ‘27 Yankees, but as long as we don’t sacrifice a lot of defense (and we won’t), we’ll be in decent shape.
Yes, I know, Branyan. Well, that’s what they pay GMZ for, isn’t it? Personally, I’d be fine with grabbing Doumit and Scott in trade, and being able to get acceptable offense out of ANY lineup spot save Wilson/SS (and I’m fine with punting offense at one lineup spot for superior defense… two’s harder to justify, plus I question the idea that a C position with Rob Johnson getting significant playing time has anything approaching superior defense).
by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 6:47 PM PST reply actions
Griffey and Sweeney were still replacement-level, but yeah.
Royals were at .291 for their DH.
To put this another way: if you give the M’s the performance of a replacement level MLB hitter at 3B and LF for 2009, which would put them in the upper bottom half of MLB for 3B, and in the lower third of MLB for LF, and did nothing else, the M’s would score something like 50 more runs. Add in a little more oomph at SS (figuring Wilson’s not Yuni/Cedeno-style terrible), DH (less Griffey plzkthx) and figuring Figgins is a little BETTER than a league-average hitter but is going to regress from 2009 to something like his career numbers, and you’re looking at more like 75 runs.
Even if you assume the rest of the lineup regresses a bit to the mean, the M’s should be able to make the offense at least 50 runs better without breaking too much of a sweat. That gets them over 700 runs scored, which isn’t great, but you have to account for a) Safeco and b) doesn’t account for better defense than last year AND better run prevention (plus they should have scored more runs last year than they did).
by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 9:36 PM PST up reply actions
Where is this better defense coming from?
I see half a year of Yuni going but Figgins is not as good as Adrian. Obviously still time to improve but am I missing something?
by greymstreet on Dec 15, 2009 10:07 PM PST up reply actions
A full season of Wilson should help.
If you say Wilson and Figgins are +15 in the field which is fairly reasonable, that’s better than Adrian and our SS mess last year.
The jump from Yuni to Wilson is about two wins
Yuni was at about -9 runs when he was traded. On talent, the defense is better, although performance wise it is likely going to be worse. Beltre and Guti turned in remarkable seasons that arent likely to be replicated. Still, we should be top five int he majors.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 7:59 AM PST up reply actions
But you gotta remember a DH has to wOBA for something like .360 to be an average (~2 win) player
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 7:57 AM PST up reply actions
Just curious...
…is there some research on how having multiple black holes in offense will affect over all productivity? Or have they found out that suck is suck….
Marginal Improvements
are possible at at 1B, DH, and LF.
It shouldn’t be too hard to make .5-1.5 win improvements at each of those positions. We still have cash.
On a side note, I like our bullpen, but more depth would never hurt. My personal projections have random arms adding a win or so in the bullpen. We just gave some of that away. We gave some of that away when we did the Snell/Wilson trade. Our minors pitching depth has gotten pretty thin.
I trust Z though
by chrisisasavage on Dec 15, 2009 10:17 PM PST reply actions
1B should probably be pretty tough to improve on
3.2 WAR is pretty good.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 15, 2009 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
Sorry
Improve on what we currently have control over
by chrisisasavage on Dec 15, 2009 10:21 PM PST up reply actions
If Z can pull of a couple more Ninja moves
The Angels should be worried.
by chrisisasavage on Dec 15, 2009 10:41 PM PST up reply actions
I don't want to make a marginal improvement in LF.
Unless Saunders is going away as part of the return for (or because he is made redundant by) a substantial upgrade, I’d like him to be in LF to start the year. He’s probably a 1.5 win player, maybe a bit less, but he has potential to be much better than that. I don’t see the point in giving the spot to someone else who is only going to be marginally better and have an actual cost in terms of talent or resources.
by Aaron Campeau on Dec 15, 2009 10:21 PM PST up reply actions
What about
a 1 year stopgap in a trade?
by chrisisasavage on Dec 15, 2009 10:22 PM PST up reply actions
What sort of resources are you going to have to surrender?
If it’s something not especially interesting for Luke Scott or similar, sure, but I still don’t really see that much of a point.
by Aaron Campeau on Dec 15, 2009 10:24 PM PST up reply actions
It's possible, I just don't think it's that big of an upgrade and probably not worth the resources.
It is well within the realm of possibility that Saunders could be a 2.5 win player next season.
by Aaron Campeau on Dec 15, 2009 10:29 PM PST up reply actions
If you want a true upgrade in LF then you should let Griffey play there.
Letting his gold gloves go to waste on the bench. Throw a few bills at Delgado to DH, and let Griffdog patrol the outfield of Safeco once again.
angels fan in seattle
Mo Vaughn is available, I think.
I bet he can still rake.
by Johnny Slick on Dec 15, 2009 10:50 PM PST up reply actions
I agree with you here.
Signing/trading for a ~2 win player is going to deplete rather than expand the roster. I like sticking with Saunders and hoping he realizes his upside.
When is Endy due back, anyway?
He hit really well for about 5 games in April, then some completely unrelated action happened to him which caused his season stats to dip to about his career levels. I think he can really produce for us!
Endy Chavez is a free agent.
...and now I'm here
Endy tore his ACL and MCL in June.
With those injuries, an athlete can be expected to return after 11-12 months. He won’t be signing a contract with a team any time soon.
Endy is great on a defensive level.
He’s just not all that good offensively. If the team signs him (when he’s healthy enough to play in late June to mid July) it will be for the minimum. If they happen to have griffey on the 60 day DL that is.
Endy Chavez is a free agent.
...and now I'm here
Endy Chavez is a free agent.
by Snowman1025 on Dec 15, 2009 11:53 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah
you should listen to Eyebrows and use the reply button
by chrisisasavage on Dec 16, 2009 12:11 AM PST reply actions
I don't check for two days because of finals and I come back and we're trading for Cliff Lee.
Holy crap. This is awesome!
50!
In related news...
did you hear about Endy Chavez? His roster status is most interesting.
by Johnny Slick on Dec 16, 2009 1:56 AM PST up reply actions
So today is the day?
Has it been confirmed 100% which prospects are involved yet? What still needs to be done for the deal to complete?
All signs point to it ending Wednesday, yeah
Pretty solidly Aumont/Ramirez/Gillies.
I can’t wait to dance my ass off.
You are referring to Gilles being deaf right?
They probably Skype and use sign language with him dude.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 8:53 AM PST up reply actions
Thankfully.
Gilles doesn’t need one anyway.
Gillies told me he’d just gotten off the phone about an hour ago with Phillippe Aumont, who phoned him from a hotel room in Philadelphia.
“He told me he was there to take a physical,‘’ Gillies said. "I’m sure it has to do with his being a pitcher and all.’’
HAHAHA that's hilarious what was he doing using a phone
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 16, 2009 10:32 AM PST up reply actions
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