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Around SBN: Miikka Kiprusoff Wins 300th Game, Buffalo Crushes Boston

State Of The Trade

Wbc_029_tiny by Jeff Sullivan on in Seattle Mariners Transactions

Still no official confirmation, but at this point, it seems the return is almost certainly going to be Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez. That's the package that's being reported. Aumont/Gillies/Ramirez means no Saunders, Morrow, or Triunfel, and no Saunders, Morrow, or Triunfel means that we win. Gloating is unbecoming, but so is false modesty, so with that in mind, ha ha, baseball, we're better than you. There is no way to spin this as a bad trade for the Mariners. No way. Even if you think they have a long way to go before they're legitimate World Series contenders, they just took a significant step forward, and all it cost them was a reliever, a probable reliever, and a deafer Tom Goodwin. All three are quality prospects who could end up having long Major League careers, but these aren't high-end guys - they're replaceable ones, and they brought us a year of one of the best pitchers in baseball. Jack Zduriencik is so far ahead of the world that I think he's the cat from Early Edition.

Despite all the excitement, though, those of you hoping the trade will be finalized today are probably going to be disappointed, as most reports have tomorrow as being more likely. Halladay and the Phillies appear to have agreed on an extension, but Halladay still needs to take a physical, and at this level of complexity, there's a lot of paperwork that needs to be filled out and turned in. So that little shred of anxiety that everything's going to fall apart at the last second isn't going away just yet. Still, at this point it would take something unthinkable to blow this deal apart, and in that event we're going to have bigger things to worry about than baseball anyway, like how to build and launch a new sun really really fast.

Comment 231 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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Read More: 2010 mlb hot stove, J.C. Ramirez (P - PHI), Tyson Gillies (CF - PHI), Phillippe Aumont (P - PHI), Cliff Lee (P - PHI), Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies

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Anybody else think Jack Zduriencik is the gold standard for GM's?

Seriously, this guy is something else. What he’s doing with this team is so much fun to watch.

by Kermit. on Dec 15, 2009 11:06 AM PST reply actions  

Theo is probably still the gold standard, as aggravating as that is.

GMZ needs a longer track record before we install him in the firmament. But he definitely seems like he belongs in that tier.

Jigsaw falling into place

by esoteric on Dec 15, 2009 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I love the way this trade is shaping up.

At the same time, im trying not to get my hopes up too high.

If Aumont, Gillies, and Ramirez is all we give up, Z comes out looking very, very shiny.

OOOOOH!!!!! That was NASTY!!!!!!!!

by bmxnw on Dec 15, 2009 11:07 AM PST reply actions  

Because it's already been shown inevitable,

here’s your handy guide to comparing this trade to the Bedard trade.

The Cliff Lee deal is like the Bedard deal if:
-Bedard was way better
-Bedard was way healthier
-We didn’t send Baltimore Chris Tillman
-We didn’t send Baltimore Adam Jones
-We were actually a solid team in 2007

But yeah, other than those five things, exactly the same.

by Matthew on Dec 15, 2009 11:10 AM PST reply actions  

As an FYI

Dave Cameron is going to be on with Brock and Salk at 2PM to talk about this.

by BrianL on Dec 15, 2009 11:11 AM PST reply actions  

We all know how that is going to go:

Mr. Cameron thank you for joining us today, would you like to give your take on the trade?

DC: WOOOOOHOOOOO!!!!

Ok would you like to add anything to that?

DC: WOOOOOHOOOOO!!!!

by mark sobba on Dec 15, 2009 11:19 AM PST up reply actions  

Welcome to 1995-2003?

Seriously, it wasn’t THAT long ago that the team was good. Say what you want about Woodward botching some trades (*cough*Slocumb*cough*Timlin*cough), but he was better than Bavasi for sure, and Gillick may be the anti-Billy Beane, but his record’s pretty much untouchable: playoffs everywhere he’s gone, championships in two leagues.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Sure, but there are franchises that get lost in the woods for decades under bad management.

Credit Lincoln and Armstrong for pulling their heads out of their asses and hiring the very best guy to turn it around.

by lemonverbena on Dec 15, 2009 12:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Well...

I was never quite as down on Lincoln/Armstrong as some other folks, as I could recall the Good Old Days, when the equation was competent GM + reasonable payroll + good business management = reasonable chance at contention, year-in, year-out. They just needed people a lot stronger on the baseball side of operations than Bill Bavasi, and they got them in GMZ/Blengino/Tango. This isn’t David Glass or Edward Bennett Williams we’re talking about, who are just hopeless as ownership (note that Gillick was able to make it work with Williams, though, but left in a hurry).

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Meh.

If we’re going to give Woody Woodward credit for putting the pieces together for 1995, I think we also have to give him the blame for that team underachieving. I don’t mean NO RINGS because to some extent that’s just luck (especially 2001). 4 playoff appearances in 8 years for a team that at one point had a nucleus of Edgar, Randy, Griffey, A-Rod, and Buhner – 4 HOFers and a very solid player – is really not enough. And a huge part of that were those boneheaded deals.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 15, 2009 12:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Underachieving isn't the same as total trainwreck ala Bavasi.

I wasn’t a fan of some of Woodward’s moves, but 1995-1999 was nothing like the Bavasi regime- the team didn’t totally screw the payroll with long-term deals, the bad trades were balanced out by some good ones, and so on.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 1:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Do not forget that Lincoln was not involved until 1999 or 2000.

He had zero to do with the teams of the 90’s. Also, Chuck Armstrong was not working for the Mariners until the current ownership bought the team and they hired him to return to the role of club President. He also was not involved in the building of the nucleus of players that drove the teams of the 90’s.

by Sec 108 on Dec 15, 2009 12:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Armstrong was around during the Griffey+Buhner acquisitions, as well as from 1993 on.

I’d say he gets SOME credit for the ’90s teams.

In any event, I don’t think this really makes a difference about my point, which is that I never saw Lincoln/Armstrong as the millstones to success that a lot of other people did. Their problem was that they chose very poorly when it came to a GM for the baseball side of things after Gillick left in 2003, and they’ve fixed that now.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 1:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Which didn't work out so badly after all...

along with the problem that there was just no way the M’s were going to be able to keep Griffey, A-Rod AND Randy anyway, even with Safeco Field coming online in 1999.

Oh, and you can blame him for Edgar not getting a shot before 1989. I know Armstrong blames himself…

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions  

There was the Freddy Garcia situation as well

“The request “was way out of line,” Armstrong said, fuming. “I haven’t attended an arbitration hearing in my 11 years with this ownership, but this one is too important.”"

That was over a difference of $900,000. He and Lincoln seem to have finally learned their lessons and taken a step back from baseball operations. Despite some of the harm he may or may not have done to the roster, he deserves a lot of credit for keeping the team in Seattle.

Also, to whomever said Armstrong was not part of the team until current ownership came to town, that simply is not true. Argyros brought Armstrong in as Team President as one of his initial moves when he bought the team. When Argyros skipped town, Armstrong tried to put together an ownership group to keep the team in Seattle, but Argyros more or less strong armed him out of putting a group together, but claimed it was a conflict of interest. When Smulyan bought the team, Armstrong was fired. Slade Gorton brought him into The Baseball Club of Seattle. With Yamaguchi being the majority owner, MLB insisted that it would be required for the members that would be running the day-to-day operations must be American. That gave Armstrong and Ellis (and later Lincoln) high ranking positions on the Mariners.

by edddgar on Dec 15, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Hindsight is 20/20

There’s no way anyone could know that Edgar was going to become the hitter that he did.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 15, 2009 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

It was pretty obvious Edgar was a better hitter than Jim Presley OR Darnell Coles, though.

I figured that out and bitched and moaned about it in the late 80’s in one of Seattle’s SABR rags at the time, but this was when OBP was state-of-the-art sabremetric analysis.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 5:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Dude, Edgar won 2 PCL batting titles before the M's finally gave him a shot.

Maybe they didn’t know how well he’d age, but he had the rep for being the minor league Wade Boggs well before he spent 1989 playing part time and trying to push Presley out.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 15, 2009 5:28 PM PST up reply actions  

And after the second time when he proved it wasn't a fluke,

they rightfully gave him playing time. And the rest, as they say, is history.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 15, 2009 6:53 PM PST up reply actions  

After the second time,

they called him up but still sat him on the bench for most of the season.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 15, 2009 10:13 PM PST up reply actions  

He started the year at 3b

but then hit 240/314/304. That’s an OPS+ of 74. He was hitting worse than Presley was.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 15, 2009 11:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Presley's OPS that year was 74 as well

Including a 285 OBP. Also, looking at the lineup data it looks like the M’s were doing some weird platoony thing with Edgar. In any case, he didn’t take well to the playing 5 days at a time and then not for another week and hit .176 for April. From that point forward he hit over .300 although the playing time was scarce.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 15, 2009 11:47 PM PST up reply actions  

You have your numbers wrong.

Presley’s OPS+ for the year was 82 (not much better, but). After April, Edgar hit .267 the rest of the season.

The M’s played a sort of musical chairs with 3b, 1b, and DH, trying to find the guys who could hit. Edgar split time with Presley at 3b about 40/60.

Probably not the time or place for this, though. I’m sure we’ve taxed their patience enough with re-hashing old stuff.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 16, 2009 12:00 AM PST up reply actions  

Well, my window of experience is fairly limited because I didn't even move to Washington until 2002

but I do like getting some context and perspective on the Mariners before I really knew them, so thanks for that. All I can say is it’s been a strange seven years following the M’s.

by Torrid on Dec 15, 2009 1:27 PM PST up reply actions  

So, if Fett was to redo his classic spiders gif ...

What would represent the pure awesomeness that would be entering Jack Z’s head? I can’t think of anything fantastic enough to counter the awfulness of AK1984 .

by Chris Hafner on Dec 15, 2009 12:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Bowie

Bowie’s in space
Bowie’s in space
Whatcha doin’ out there man?
That’s pretty freaky, Bowie.
What’s a rock musician doing out in space man?
Isn’t it cold, quite cold out there Bowie?
Do you need my jumper Bowie?
Does the space cold do funny things to your nipples, making them all pointy?
Bowie.
Do you use your pointy nipples as telescopic antennae transmitting data back to Earth?
Data back to Earth d-d-do, d-d-do, do do
I bet you do you freaky old bastard you

Spoken
Is it lonely out there in space man, or is there life on Mars? Wouldn’t that be weird coz you wrote that song, ‘Is There Life on Mars’. You could write a follow up tune and call it ‘And There Is’

Mmmm, and there is yes there is.
There’s heaps of it and it’s all freaking out at my new look.
Bowie do you have one really funky sequined space suit, Bowie?
Or do you have several ch-ch-ch-ch- changes?
Space changes
Do they smoke grass out there in space man, or do they smoke Astroturf?

Spoken
Receiving transmission from David Bowie’s nipple antennae. Do you read me, Lieutenant Bowie?

This is Bowie to Bowie, do you hear me out there man?
This is Bowie back to Bowie I read you loud and clear, man.
Oooh yeah man!
Your signal is weak on my radar screen. How far out are you man?
I’m pretty far out
That’s pretty far out man
I’m orbiting Pluto!
Drawn in by its grooveatational (grooveatational) pull
I’m jamming out with the Mick Jaggernauts
And they think it’s pretty cool, man.

Are you ok Bowie? What was that sound?
I don’t know man, I’ll have to turn my ship around.
Oh it’s the craziest thing
Yeah, I’m picking it up on my LSD screen.
Oooh, but can you see the stratosphere, ringing?
To the choir of Afronauts singing

Eeniee e ma ma meenie miny moey
Set your phasers on funky
Eeniee ma ma meenie miny moey
Pippew, pipew pipew, pew
Eenie, ma ma meenie minie miny moey
B-b-b-b Bowies in…..

by Dave Clapper on Dec 15, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions  

This works, I think.

“It’s Jack Zduriencik’s world and all other GMs are just living in it.”

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 15, 2009 12:51 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

While I still like the trade

I do not have Morrow and even more so, Triunfel, as high as most of the people here at LL do.

   Morrow is going to be 25 next season and has not really put any strong numbers up over a significant sample size in his pro-career. Furthermore, being jerked around by the F.O. and himself from starting to relieving has really stagnated his development. He has great stuff still, which helps him keep his high potential. However, he still struggles significantly with control of his fastball and slider. Furthermore, unless I missed something, his change has not really developed further. This combined with the problems created by his concerns over his diabetes and lack of development make me severely doubt he will become even an average starter. As a reliever he has a better chance, but his control is still not where you would want it to be, and this role brings much less value to the team.

    Triunfel has not really done much to impress in terms of hitting. He is overly aggressive at the plate, reducing his OBP. Furthermore, while he has plenty of tools he has yet to show significant results. ARL is overstated in prospect circles sometimes, I think. Really, Gillies is only a year older and has shown great results in the same environment Triunfel was last year. Gillies of course does not project as well as Triunfel, but it is not a stretch to say he is more advanced right now. Also, he will likely play better defense at a more valuable position than Triunfel.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 1:06 PM PST reply actions  

Yup.

I’m fine with trading him. But he’s not a throw-in.

by Teej on Dec 15, 2009 1:14 PM PST up reply actions  

The constant shuffling between the bullpen and the rotation hurt his status.

His stock with the organization may never have recovered from Hargrove and Bavasi fucking with his development.

by BrianL on Dec 15, 2009 1:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Honestly I was really pissed off about the diabetes/closer thing last spring

And Lincecum doesn’t help anything either.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 15, 2009 1:23 PM PST up reply actions  

One start doesn't make a career.

Don Larsen had a freakin’ perfect game in the World Series, and was a journeyman pitcher outside of that- a couple of good years ala Paul Abbott when he was carried by the Yankee offense and defense, but that was about it.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 1:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not saying it established his career

I’m just comparing our collective feelings about him then to the seemingly consensus ‘trade trade trade’ I’m seeing now. And I don’t disagree, just taking a step back for a moment.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 15, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Well...

Loafie’s been in “trade trade trade” mode for years now, along with the intermittent “WORST PLAYER EVAR” when he has his occasional months where a relative dies and he stops hitting, and he’s a league-average player at 2B with decent return for the salary outlay.

Familiarity breeds contempt, I guess, especially when you think the player should be so much better than they are.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah I won't disagree with you there

Aumont and Gillies are both less valuable. But I would not shed tears over his loss either. I would love for him to work out for us.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 1:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Triunfel has shown awesome results at the plate

he hit .300 in A+ ball at age 18. 18!

Triunfel’s status has always come from his age, and in the latter stages of 2008 and early 2009 he was beginning to show the long promised power we had hoped he would develop. If he sticks at short, he’s a heck of a prospect.

by seattlebruin on Dec 15, 2009 1:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Triunfel is not supposed to stick at SS

In most prospect circles I hear of him as a 3B or 2B, possibly even corner outfielder now. Also, that .300 + average accounted for a cut even wOBA of .338 in the best hitter’s park in the league. He just does not walk and if you reduce his BB % and increase his K % for AA adjustments with pitchers that have control, you get numbers close to what Jose Lopez puts up.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 1:30 PM PST up reply actions  

ARL is not everything

Yusmeiro Petit dominated AA as a 20 year old. Where is he now. Triunfel is extremely talented and was very polished for international signee, which allowed him to make good contact in the lower minors. However, his batting line is extemely empty, evidenced by his unimpressive wOBAs.

Jose Lopez is not an impressive MLB hitter, just league average. He and Triunfel share similar skill sets, except Lopez is a mile more polished and everything broke right for him.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 1:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Using small sample size examples isn't going to convince me of this

most 18 year olds aren’t ready for the Cal League. Some are. Some do well. Some of those that do well turn out to be great major leaguers. Some of those that do well turn out to be shitty major leaguers. I’d always rather have a guy who has been successful against much older competition than unsuccessful.

With Triunfel, batting average may be an empty stat at the big league level, but it shows an ability to square up a pitch and hit it soundly, which is one of the thing that you simply need to be physically gifted to do, and Triunfel has shown that.

by seattlebruin on Dec 15, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions  

I am not saying that there is no value in Triunfel

but he has to show some results at some point. He has been signed now for three years and has shown no power outside of an extreme hitter’s park in the two years he has been healthy. Furthermore, he has not improved on taking walks since he first started in the minors. These are two key areas a hitter draws value from which Triunfel has not progressed in yet. I think there are more polished players in this system with higher or equal potential as Triunfel, which is why I do not rate him as highly.

Gillies has shown results, even when you regress his BABIP for this year. He can also take a walk and has excellent speed. He was 20 in the Cal League, which is also young relative to the league average. His most likely outcome is a 4th outfielder, but his floor looks way higher than Triunfel’s right now.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Basically, Triunfel = Loafie but hasn't shown as much power consistently yet.

The BA and OBP are nearly identical, and Lopez started out at SS before being moved off to 2B in the majors. Neither player walks much or Ks much.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 2:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Exactly, very similar skill set

Triunfel is just not at the same level as Lopez was when he was Triunfel’s age. The injury really hurt his development curve but maybe he can come back and learn to walk.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 2:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Well...

Loafie still doesn’t compare all THAT badly to, say, Miguel Tejada at comparable ages, and I think Bavasi’s “push them until there’s massive FAIL” philosophy might have hosed his development (plus he sort of had some outside issues that impacted that), so I still think Triunfel might turn out kind of interesting. I’ll want to see where his 2010 is. If he starts blowing away AA/AAA pitching, that’s a good sign.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions  

I really hope he develops but I am worried more than most

I seem to remember there were reports coming out of the AZFL that he looked out of shape, but this is just coming from my memory. Also, Sickels had some scouts questioning his work ethic in his prospect book.

Personally, I would like him to get his feet wet again in High Desert, than see what he can do in AA. Last thing I want the Ms to do is mess with more prospects by rushing them, especially one as physically talented as Triunfel.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions  

I wouldn't object to that.

I think he probably needs to show he’s better than A+/AA to really start being a hot hot prospect again. Otherwise he’s Tui, I think.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 2:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah I won't argue that

I just really think he does not belong in the top 5. Probably, on the back end of the top 10. I would put Ramirez, Aumont, Proythress, Ackley, Saunders, Moore, Gillies, Pineda, and possibly Morban or DeJesus in front of him at this point.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 2:10 PM PST up reply actions  

His offensive potential is something to dream of

Next year is going to be a big test for him whether in Everett, Pulaski, or Clinton.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 2:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, Morban

He’ll be one of the more exciting prospects to watch next year.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 15, 2009 4:56 PM PST up reply actions  

DeJesus?

Jharmidy “can’t play third base anymore and just hit .249/.340/.385 in Pulaski after hitting better than that in Everett the year prior” DeJesus?

I’ve soured on him a bit, personally.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 15, 2009 2:28 PM PST up reply actions  

He was a "shortstop", as was Mario Martinez

though not to the same degree.

The only non-quotes shortstop we’ve picked up that was a big signing in recent memory was Gabriel Noriega, unless you want to count Triunfel.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 15, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions  

I'll take that back

I had no idea DeJesus had that bad of a year. In my memory the numbers were always better than that. I am not surprised that he is likely to move off 3B, but his bat was supposed to be very good and he actually walked a little even. Him and Martinez really dissapointed this year.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Martinez had a bit of a late surge in Everett though.

Nothing extraordinary, mind you, but he gets good marks on work ethic, defense, and being a good teammate. I think he has a better chance than de Jesus does, all things considered.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 15, 2009 2:41 PM PST up reply actions  

I also hold more hope for Martinez than DeJesus

However, his K/BB rate was essentially the same in Everett. This is something I see as key when looking at the development of prospects in the low minors and in Martinez’s case, the lack of progress is worrying. I think he can do better with a second go around, much like Halman did. He always seems to get good reviews from the organisation. If only one out of Martinez, DeJesus, Norriega, Valvidia, and Triunfel, can work out, we have something special.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 2:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Poythress, really?

They say he’s got tremendous power potential, but we’ve seen so little of him that it’s hard to have enough confidence in him to put him in the top ten.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 15, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions  

He's in there for me.

Not many others you can put after this trade.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 15, 2009 6:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Wellllll...

Go look at Adrian Beltre in the minors at 18. I’d have to call AB considerably ahead of Triunfel as a hitter at a similar age, considering he MADE a MLB team at 19, and was a solid performer by age 20, and flashed power all through his minor league career that Triunfel has never really shown yet.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 1:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes, but my point is AB is much closer to awesome than Triunfel is.

That’s what I expect to see when I see a prospect blowing a league away at a young age. Triunfel’s young for his league, but he’s not blowing it away.

FWIW, Jose Lopez outhit Triunfel in the same league by quite a lot (with similar hitter’s ballparks inflating the stats) at a similar age- .324/.360/.464. Now, maybe Triunfel outdevelops Loafie going forward, but especially with him missing his age 19 year, you’d have to say he’s behind Lopez at this point in their respective careers- and Loafie clearly wasn’t ready for the majors by age 20/21, even though he hit pretty well in Tacoma (+.850 OPS those half-years there).

by eponymous_coward on Dec 15, 2009 1:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Milwaukee seem very interested in Morrow so I'm happy we stilll have him.

It’s way too early to give up on Triunfel, sure the year missed is a concern but he’s still young for the league.

Fuck Anaheim.

by Eyeball Kid on Dec 15, 2009 1:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Whatever the names, seems theres a deal to be had there as the Brewers are still loaded with hitting talent and need to solidify their rotation

but I don’t know if Morrow has established himself nearly enough as a starter to be that guy. We’ve certainly got a few guys with upside…

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 15, 2009 1:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Morrow + something for Fielder would be lovely

That is if we can afford the salary. Let see if we can fool the smarter Melvin.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 15, 2009 1:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Fielder would be a phenominal player

but I would almost prefer less value in Gamel just so I can finally root for a player for 6 years. Assuming he turns out to be any good with the bat.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 15, 2009 4:56 PM PST up reply actions  

One thing that hasn't been discussed at all, and maybe its a non-issue

but Lee pitched 270 innings last year. That’s a shitload of work, and while he showed no sign of attrition in October its somewhat worrying. Have there been any studies on pitcher performance/injury risk following such a huge uptick in workload?

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 15, 2009 1:17 PM PST reply actions  

Predicting specific injury based on mechanics is alchemy

but trends in decreased velo/K rate/IP are easily subjected to stats analysis. Just wondering if there’s something out there on the subject I’m not aware of.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 15, 2009 1:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh heavens no I'm still stoked about the trade

just wondering about what can be reasonably expected of him. Certainly not what he did last year.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 15, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Lee doesn't exactly qualify

because he’s over 25, but Larry Stone did an article on this with relation to Felix.
Felix Hernandez and “The Verducci Effect”

by margin1522 on Dec 15, 2009 2:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Does Lee really hate Philly or something?

I can’t figure out why they don’t just keep Lee for the year.

--Dave
Addicted to Quack, SBN's Oregon Ducks blog

by David Piper on Dec 15, 2009 1:52 PM PST reply actions  

Guarantees they have a top-flight pitcher past 2010

sure it’s kind of stupid, but it does provide them some additional stability, so understandable, I guess

by seattlebruin on Dec 15, 2009 1:55 PM PST up reply actions  

no, what I'm saying is

why do they have to trade Lee to get Halliday? Why can’t they have both? Perhaps I don’t understand the mechanics of the deal. Is Seattle giving something up to Toronto?

--Dave
Addicted to Quack, SBN's Oregon Ducks blog

by David Piper on Dec 15, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions  

This is a companion trade setup.

The Jays send Halladay and cash to Philly in exchange for prospects then the Jays turn around and send us Lee in exchange for our prospects.

by BrianL on Dec 15, 2009 1:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Philly wanted to get some prospects back

And maybe they liked those prospects better than two draft picks.

by tait644 on Dec 15, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Prospects vs. World Series

Basically the difference is Lee’s salary and mid-level vs. low-level prospects. They keep Lee they pay his salary and take two draft picks when he walks. They make the M’s deal they get prospects potentially nearer the majors, and one more prospect than if Lee walks.

If they keep Lee they’re the favorites to win the WS as of this moment. That might sell some tickets, partially defraying the cost of keeping Lee.

I just don’t think this is a cut-and-dried decision for Philly at this point.

by short on Dec 15, 2009 2:04 PM PST up reply actions  

No we aren't

And so there’s a non-trivial chance (IMO) that Philly might decide to keep Lee. Or that they will go ahead and shop him around a bit before dealing him, raising the price. Also, the only reason Philly appears to need to deal Lee is reduce salary. They may find another way of doing that.

As soon as this went from 3-way deal to “companion” deals, I became nervous.

by short on Dec 15, 2009 2:01 PM PST up reply actions  

yeah

I mean, at only $8 million, why the hell would Philly not keep both? You’ll make that up with World Series gate.

--Dave
Addicted to Quack, SBN's Oregon Ducks blog

by David Piper on Dec 15, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Long term they couldn't have both

So, they flip Lee for prospects after sending prospects for Doc. Sell Lee while his value is high

by Brian Floyd on Dec 15, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, or you can win a world series

when you have a chance to win a world series, you do it.

--Dave
Addicted to Quack, SBN's Oregon Ducks blog

by David Piper on Dec 15, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions  

but you don't have to flip

you don’t get it. You have Halladay without Lee. Why not keep both and get a ring? Its irrelevant if you lose Lee after this year.

--Dave
Addicted to Quack, SBN's Oregon Ducks blog

by David Piper on Dec 15, 2009 2:25 PM PST up reply actions  

2 reasons I see

1) They don’t want to lock up 25 mil in payroll for the two this year
2) They don’t want to have Lee walk for only compensatory picks, which would have happened

Instead, they are compensated with 3 picks for a player they know wouldn’t have been around next year while increasing their chances at a WS and freeing up payroll to continue making moves.

by Brian Floyd on Dec 15, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

I do agree with you, though

I just think it was Philly’s philosophy to dump Lee once they got their man because they knew they had 0 chance of locking Lee up and his value was at it’s highest right now. Since they were able to extend Halliday for 3 years, they have a long term ace and were free to flip Lee for prospects to replenish the farm and fill needs immediately

by Brian Floyd on Dec 15, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions  

The sticking point for the Phillies in the Halladay trade was having to give up too high a price in prospects.

If they get prospects from Seattle, they can offer more to Toronto because they are replacing those lost prospects.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 15, 2009 5:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Why not take the two draft picks

Plus WS rings all around?

So it comes down to money, and if they can either:

A) Dump Blanton on somebody (or otherwise reduce salary)

OR

B) Find a team willing to give up more for Lee than the M’s

…we are SOL.

by short on Dec 15, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions  

In terms of getting Lee

We are otherwise still cool. But sadder. Except with Chone, who is cool. And we still have Guti and Ichiro and Felix.

by short on Dec 15, 2009 2:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Yep

The major sticking point was Halladay signing an extension, which was resolved this morning. As long as everyone passes their physicals and Selig signs off, this thing is done

by Brian Floyd on Dec 15, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions  

According to Stark
The status of the other portions of a companion deal that would include the Seattle Mariners, however, is still uncertain at this point.

As of 12:43 PST

Is another source more confident in the Lee deal?

by short on Dec 15, 2009 2:20 PM PST up reply actions  

That's ESPN

not just Jayson Stark…

by short on Dec 15, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes

They have a deal in place, they know Lee is coming to Seattle, and they think the three mentioned are going to Philly. The uncertainty is who we’re sending

by Brian Floyd on Dec 15, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Cool

I hope all my kvetching is for naught.

by short on Dec 15, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions  

It'll work

Halladay took his physical this morning and that was the last remaining piece. Deal has been expected to go through tomorrow since the speculation started.

by Brian Floyd on Dec 15, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions  

When it's announced I'll be relieved

I’m just trying not to get my hopes up yet, since I can easily see this not going our way at this point.

by short on Dec 15, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions  

PANIC AND LOUD NOISES

Like the other Jeff said (or maybe I’m the other Jeff, here) the chances of this falling through at this point are microscopic.

Relax.

by Jeff Nye on Dec 15, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions  

So basically.

The Phillies have to move Cliff Lee somewhere (Mariners) because they have guys like Raul Ibanez are on the payroll.

Yea, that’s kinda all sorts of funny to me.

by ThundaPC on Dec 15, 2009 6:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Viewed another way,

they traded Lee (at least partially) because they have Moyer.

There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

by misterjonez on Dec 15, 2009 9:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Dave Cameron on Brock and Salk in a few minutes.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 15, 2009 2:01 PM PST reply actions  

This might be Dave's best radio segment.

Brock and Salk actually give a damn about what he thinks.

by BrianL on Dec 15, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Brock and Salk is the best thing to happen to sports radio in years.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 15, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions  

I kno wthat this is just speculation at this point but...

I just saw on SC that we mgiht be only giving up two prospects for Lee. TWO!

Will this speculation turn to elation?

OOOOOH!!!!! That was NASTY!!!!!!!!

by bmxnw on Dec 15, 2009 3:51 PM PST reply actions  

I kno wthat this is just speculation at this point but...

I just saw on SC that we mgiht be only giving up two prospects for Lee. TWO!

Will this speculation turn to elation?

OOOOOH!!!!! That was NASTY!!!!!!!!

by seattlebruin on Dec 15, 2009 4:15 PM PST reply actions   4 recs

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