Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: 2011 In Extreme Home Runs

Thinking About The Possible Trade Package For A Moment

Note: if Happ and/or Blanton are involved, and they're coming here, then that would change things, but I'm not going to speculate any more than I have to.

So, we can't yet be sure what we're going to be giving up here, but that doesn't mean we can't make some educated guesses and speculate.

The big key, for me, is Michael Saunders. I've made no secret of how much I like Saunders, and how I think he compares pretty favorably to a guy like Randy Winn. Despite his initial Major League flop, Saunders is an athletic 23 year old corner outfielder who runs well, plays easy defense, has a solid idea of the strike zone, and who hits for reasonable power from the left side of the plate. Like Winn, he doesn't excel at any one thing, but he earns good marks pretty much across the board, making him a smart gamble with medium upside. Being that he's under team control for six years, Saunders is a greatly underrated asset, and I would really hate to lose him here. Cliff Lee is awesome, but I'd have a tough time stomaching the sacrifice of six years of Saunders for (probably) one of Lee when the team still isn't that strong.

After Saunders, though...honestly, if you remove Saunders from the equation, it's hard to come up with a package that I wouldn't like. Brandon Morrow would be a loss, but he doesn't have the same team control duration as Saunders, and he's way less dependable. Morrow didn't make any progress last year, he has yet to show any ability to stick as a starter, and his secondary stuff hasn't developed from where it was when he was drafted. Morrow's been blessed with incredible talent, but he hasn't built on it, which makes him easier to lose.

And then you end up talking about minor leaguers, Phillippe Aumont's being the most recognizable name. But, at least as a Mariner, Aumont's in the bullpen. Relievers simply aren't very valuable unless they develop into the best of the best, and the odds are against that happening. While Aumont has great stuff and should make the Majors, it's questionable whether he ever gains the command to reach the upper level. Then you've got guys like Juan Ramirez, a solid but by no means can't-miss starter in high-A, and Tyson Gillies, a slap-hitting speedy outfielder with low upside...these are nice prospects to have, but they're not the sort of prospects you freak out over when you have the opportunity to land a Cliff Lee. Carlos Triunfel would kind of suck to lose, but I don't think he'd be moved after a lost season.

I don't know what the Mariners are going to surrender in this deal. There are plenty of rumors circling around, but no confirmation. With that said, as long as Michael Saunders isn't involved - and I'm guessing that he isn't - I think I'm going to be thrilled. It's weird for a team in Seattle's situation to go after a potential one-year star like Cliff Lee, but when you don't actually have to lose that much of significant value, you seize the chance without a second thought. Let this be a lesson to those of you who thought our front office was too concerned with efficiency to land a big name - Jack Zduriencik is one ballsy son of a bitch.

Comment 738 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Well...this came out of nowhere.

Well, going from a rumor to being “close to done”, that is.

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 14, 2009 4:11 PM PST reply actions  

Saunders won't be in it...

He actually does things that Zduriencik likes.

by coreyjro on Dec 14, 2009 4:14 PM PST reply actions  

Bavasi.

He’s anti-Canadian.

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 14, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Not really?

We got Bedard, Aumont, Gillies, and Buckborough under Bavasi’s reign.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Dayton Moore Probably...

And Amaro did sign Ibanez forever, so he probably doesn’t either.

"Sure, I've been called a xenophobe, but the truth is, I'm not. I honestly just feel that America is the best country and the other countries aren't as good. That used to be called patriotism." -Kenny Powers

by DKulich44 on Dec 14, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions  

It was more in the context of...

Zduriencik doesn’t appear to be a huge fan of Aumont or Morrow, meaning they’re more likely to be involved.

by coreyjro on Dec 14, 2009 4:19 PM PST up reply actions  

Ding ding ding.

It’s pretty clear that Zduriencik was not overly fond of how we used to draft.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 4:21 PM PST up reply actions  

I seriously doubt they'd give up Tri.

And I haven’t even seen his name thrown around since the very first rumor.

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 14, 2009 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd rather lose him than Saunders, I think.

Triunfel could be a useful MLB player. Saunders is already there.

by Teej on Dec 14, 2009 6:38 PM PST up reply actions  

'07 and '08 we were able to

2009 we were almost at $100 mil, all this according to Cot’s. I see no reason why we cannot stay above $100 mil. We have deep pockets, not quite to Boston’s or New York’s level, but we are definitely in the top half of baseball. Even this year when we were cutting salary, we had the 10th highest payroll in baseball.

by edddgar on Dec 14, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions  

I would be

Really sad if we traded Saunders, I’ve been really fond of him and have high hopes for him and this club.

by ungoreatstefan on Dec 14, 2009 4:26 PM PST reply actions  

What's fun is that there is still that ~5% chance it's Hamels

which would be both more awesome and less exciting.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 4:42 PM PST reply actions  

What if Blanton's involved?

Jayson Stark is reporting that the Phillies tried to trade Blanton previously, and that he (and A.J. Happ) took physicals today. What if the reason we haven’t heard what the final package from the M’s will be is because there is some haggling over which Phillies pitcher(s) and which M’s players will be exchanged. Would getting Blanton as well as Lee (or Hamels or Happ) be worth Aumont, Saunders AND Gillies?

by short on Dec 14, 2009 4:44 PM PST reply actions  

J.A. Happ

Not A.J. But I’m sure you figured that out, you clever devils.

by short on Dec 14, 2009 4:51 PM PST up reply actions  

The M's might be including better guys

I just wonder if that’s why we haven’t got names yet. The M’s ask for Blanton, too…the Phillies demand Saunders instead of Gillies…the M’s counter-offer Morrow…M’s fans slowly lose their minds.

by short on Dec 14, 2009 5:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree with you

I really don’t want Saunders in the deal, but aside from that, if this goes down, I’m completely stoked.

by The Ancient Mariner on Dec 14, 2009 4:49 PM PST reply actions  

oh god

http://twitter.com/elliottbaseball/status/6679254024

People now saying Aumont not in the deal

If Z managed to get Cliff Lee for Gilles+Ramirez, I’m shaving my head bald in honor of the man.

by craig3410 on Dec 14, 2009 4:52 PM PST reply actions  

Then you're not criminally insane

Lopez is a repeatable, league average player for cheap right now. Aumont, at least with GMZ in charge is a relief prospect. You’d have to guarantee me Aumont was the second coming of Mariano Rivera before he’s worth more than Lopez.

by seattlebruin on Dec 14, 2009 5:25 PM PST up reply actions  

*Cough, cough*

Sure Dave, whatever yoy say…

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 14, 2009 5:26 PM PST up reply actions  

This deal needs to get done, now, as it was stated earlier.

If we spend the next two days with varying levels of horror and elation as names are swapped in and out I’m going to lose my mind.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Halfway there already

Now they’re throwing Blanton and Happ into the mix, GOD

by OlSalty on Dec 14, 2009 5:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Fuck.

I’m getting some food and shutting off my internets for a while. I can’t take this.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 5:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Three hours later...

#$&^*

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 8:03 PM PST up reply actions  

Shannon chimes in from her blog:
Let me stress here, no confirmation yet but two names we are consistently hearing are Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gilles. Adam Moore does not appear to be in the deal nor does Michael Saunders though the Blue Jays are believed to have interest in him.

Brandon Morrow’s name is coming up more and more. Remember that the Mariners are basically trading for a rent a player as Lee has only one year remaining on his contract and there is no indication that he is looking to extend now. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen down the road.

by BrianL on Dec 14, 2009 4:53 PM PST reply actions  

Update from Trade Rumors:

6:55pm: J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton took physicals and could be a part of the deal, writes Rob Maaddi of the Associated Press.

by craig3410 on Dec 14, 2009 4:59 PM PST reply actions  

Toronto might get one of them.

In exchange for the Phillies keeping more prospects.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 8:04 PM PST up reply actions  

This is a relief!!

“Adam Moore does not appear to be in the deal nor does Michael Saunders though the Blue Jays are believed to have interest in him.”

YAY!

by ARock on Dec 14, 2009 5:00 PM PST reply actions  

So Philly got Bedarded

and we throw in a couple good-but-not-lifechanging prospects and get Cliff Lee.

I like having a smart GM.

by craig3410 on Dec 14, 2009 5:08 PM PST reply actions  

Jonathan Mayo tweet

“No true confirmations on prospects heading to Jays yet. It could be Aumont and maybe Saunders or Triunfel from M’s; Brown plus 1 from Phils”

Ahahahahahahahaha I love twitter.

by JLC on Dec 14, 2009 5:14 PM PST reply actions  

i say no

If Triunfel is in the mix. Morrow Aumont and a throwin should suffice.

by Buckyfan on Dec 14, 2009 5:23 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

Anthroupoulos really loves Canadian players apparently

Interestingly enough he is Canadian also.

I would really hate to lose Gillies. Probably my favorite minor leaguer in our system right now. I could easily see him doing what Ichiro has been doing for us the next ten years. That is of course if Ichiro actually becomes human.

by tdot mariner fan on Dec 14, 2009 5:23 PM PST reply actions  

Why?

He’s a centerfielder. Ichiro is good enough to play wherever he damn well pleases. Gillies isn’t.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 8:05 PM PST up reply actions  

A few thoughts:

1) Just because other people might be involved in the deal doesn’t mean anything important or relevant has happened.
2) We don’t know anything we didn’t know 2 hours ago, which is lame, but it doesn’t mean anything.
3) Those broadcasts about Happ and Blanton from ESPN didn’t even say they were involved in the trade, just physicals.
4) Nothing’s changed, nothing’s changed, nothing’s changed, nothing’s changed, nothing’s changed.
5) Seriously, nothing’s changed. If the deal was good two hours ago, it’s still fine.
6) Everyone but Saunders and possibly Triunfel is essentially useless on our team right now.
7) Most of the value of the players we lose will be regained by the draft picks we get when Lee leaves.

I have nothing negative to say about any of this news unless something happens to lead me to believe otherwise. Every name that’s mentioned only makes me happier (“We might get Happ too?! Sweet!”) rather than sad (“OH MY GOD, It’s Blanton instead of Lee!!!”) because there is no reason to think otherwise.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 5:34 PM PST reply actions  

This is starting get a little stupid

Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.

p.s. fuck you angels

by InSpokane on Dec 14, 2009 5:39 PM PST reply actions  

For some reason I have Robert Downey, Jr. stuck in my head.

From Natural Born Killers. “I was there man! I was there when it all went down in Grenada!”

by Kermit. on Dec 14, 2009 5:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Perfect

Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.

p.s. fuck you angels

by InSpokane on Dec 14, 2009 5:44 PM PST up reply actions  

OK I got a serious question... Don't attack me with rabid garden gnomes

The M’s had to replace 133 innings of 2.64 ERA from Washburn last year and 83 innings of 2.83 ERA from Bedard.

How much better does this make the M’s? I am serious.

Isn’t Lee’s projected production fairly equal to that?

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 5:44 PM PST reply actions  

Non-attack serious answer

Don’t use ERA to evaluate pitchers. Most of that shiny ERA from Washburn was due to the defense behind him.

by Nadingo on Dec 14, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions  

This is the key. Also consider this...

Those guys got to play in Safeco with the M’s OF defense, which makes them look super awesome. Lee did not.

by SethGrandpa on Dec 14, 2009 5:48 PM PST up reply actions  

A couple things

A) ERA isn’t a good judge of pitching ability
B) Lee replaces ONE of those two. Not both of them. You have to look at the value added by replacing Bedard+Washburn with Lee+another starter.
C) Innings Pitched. Being able to pitch past the 6th inning, saving our bullpen arms every once in a while.

FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Fuckmikereilly on Dec 14, 2009 5:50 PM PST up reply actions  

but it is not the huge gain that everyone is making it out to be

Wasburn made 20 starts, Bedard 15. Lee made 34. Lee replaces both.

On average Wasburn/Bedard went slightly further into games than Lee so there is no gain in saving the bullpen.

I am not saying that Lee will not repeat or improve on his numbers. I am saying that Lee only replaces the value that those to provided last year. It has nothing to do with predictive value of future performance.

Lee can provide the same value next year that those 2 did for the M last year. There is no net improvement from year to year.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 6:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Lee has more potential to do this again

And possibly to perform even better. You can’t just look at last year and expect the same thing to happen. Washburn was lucky last year and benefited from a pitchers park and a great defense. Why wouldn’t Lee do the same and improve his expected numbers?

Try not to take me too seriously

by calim on Dec 14, 2009 6:03 PM PST up reply actions  

The is a finite amount of improvement possible

this is not a linear improvement rate. Closer and closer you get to perfection, the harder it is to improve.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Don't be ridiculous

There is no such thing as perfection in baseball. There’s no such thing as even close to it, not over an extended period.

Try not to take me too seriously

by calim on Dec 14, 2009 6:15 PM PST up reply actions  

A guy with a 7 era

 has a much greater ability to reduce his output through outside influence vs. a guy that naturally has a 3.00 ERA. You can only go so low.

It is the difference between linear and nonlinear. Same things are applied on a regular basis in learning curves for skills. There gets to a point that you can no longer perfect what you are doing and the rest of the fluctuation in output is just random noise.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 6:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Right, but you still have a problem

in that you are still using ERA. Washburn’s FIP was 4.58 last year, which leaves a considerable amount of improvement compared to Lee’s 3.11. Or Lee’s 6.6 WAR compared to Washburn’s 2.1 (which is the second highest of his career by the way).

by levnclf on Dec 14, 2009 6:36 PM PST up reply actions  

I think what he is saying is that even though those two pitchers sucked, they gave us very favorable results.

Results that we can only expect to be repeated, not beaten, by the new pitcher. ERA may not be how good the pitcher is, but it is the results of how well the pitcher did.

And my response to this is that at the moment we are building our team off expected contributions without paying attention to last year’s over/under achievers, so when we talk about the value that Lee will bring, it’s about the team as currently constructed, not the team as they achieved last year.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 6:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, of course - in terms of how well a pitcher did.

But, for example, if Washburn throws a perfect game but gave up 15 line drives and was saved by our amazing defense, you can’t say “Man, if I could go back in time, I wished Lee pitched that game because he’d be a great improvement.” You can’t really improve on amazing results.

To which the response of course is, again, you are right you can’t improve on results, but when we are talking about this next year’s team, we’re not looking at how we did last year.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 8:50 PM PST up reply actions  

We don't care what we were last year

We care where we are now relative to where we were a day ago.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 14, 2009 6:03 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

which means that relative to the performance of the team as a whole from last year

this is a negligible gain.

It is a vast improvement from yesterday. But not a dramatic change from last season.

I like the move. But it does not mean that the staff as a whole will have signifgantly improved numbers from last year.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 6:06 PM PST up reply actions  

But it is because Washburn wasn't good and Bedard never pitched.

I suppose I see what point you’re trying to make but I don’t think you’re doing a very good job of making it because I don’t think it’s a valid point.

by Aaron Campeau on Dec 14, 2009 6:08 PM PST up reply actions  

The point is that the staff as a whole results wise should not be

greatly different from last year.

The variability in the results will have diminished greatly due to the fact that 2 guys that got by on luck and the performance of others are gone and is replaced by a starter that should provide the same results with out the need of those outside variables.

As a whole, the staff projection this year should now equal last actual output.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 6:14 PM PST up reply actions  

OK

Well then, this year we don’t have to rely on luck. That’s good, and if we get more luck, it’s even better.

Try not to take me too seriously

by calim on Dec 14, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Exactly

The problem is that last years luck is just a likely to be negative as positive or neutral. All this move really did was dramatically increase the likelihood that next years staff should equal last years production.

I

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 6:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Last year's pitching staff had the #1 ERA in the league

That’s awesome. Because we’re probably not going to score 640 runs again.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 14, 2009 6:57 PM PST up reply actions  

hopefully not

but the chance that the team improves over last years win total is going to be heavily influenced by the net changes on the offensive side of the ball.

The team should repeat as a top 5 unit in total run prevention. How much more offense is produced is going to determine the teams net gain in wins not Lee addition to the staff.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 7:10 PM PST up reply actions  

You're also missing the Lee is not taking two roster spots.

Lee+ another should be better than Bedard/Washburn.

by Kirk on Dec 14, 2009 7:28 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Try this exercise

Open a new document in Word or a spreadsheet.

1. Put down all 25 spots
2. Fill the roster with only players on the current 40 man roster
3. Use Fangraphs to find the W.A.R. of each player and make a guess on your sheet for each player.
4. Add it up and add 50 Wins (a team of all Replacement players would win ~50 games.)

Today on my sheet I took off Morrow and added Lee. I had Morrow down for 2 Wins above Replacement. I have Lee down for 5 Wins above Replacement. Which brings my prediction of the team to be 85 WINS next year. As the team changes with future signing it will go up or down. It is just an exercise and not reality. Give it a try. It might be able to answer your question.

by mark sobba on Dec 14, 2009 7:46 PM PST up reply actions  

I think replacement is at 44 or 47 wins.

But I’m not entirely sure.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 7:47 PM PST up reply actions  

People have pegged it all kinds of different numbers

I’ve seen anywhere from 36 to 50. Mid-40’s or so seems to be most prevelant. And really, for our purposes, it doesn’t matter that much.

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 14, 2009 8:18 PM PST up reply actions  

This is something each person does on their own sheets as well as each team.

I go with 48 actually. I give each non-bullpen guy 0.3 WAR to being it to 51 and go from there.
The goal being to get to 93 wins. I trend to be hopeful in some players and causious with other players.

by mark sobba on Dec 14, 2009 8:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Or this

Try not to take me too seriously

by calim on Dec 14, 2009 6:03 PM PST up reply actions  

I think the idea

is that result-based analysis is flawed when trying to predict future performance. I don’t see the problem in trying to measure the margin between future expected results with past results.

Washburn may have overachieved for us based on a non-results oriented stat (like TRA) but that doesn’t change the results he did end up achieving.

by sammy on Dec 14, 2009 6:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Washburn took advantage of the park and defense.

So will Cliff Lee. Philly plays in a bandbox and has mediocre OF defense. If he ends up in Safeco he will benefit.

by Aaron Campeau on Dec 14, 2009 6:13 PM PST up reply actions  

You'd also have to assume that Washburn would be able to continue that level of success.

Even though he benefited from the defense behind him you don’t really want to tempt fate again to see if he can flirt with a sub 3 ERA.

You got slurved!

by Slurvey on Dec 14, 2009 6:12 PM PST up reply actions  

That has no bearing on next years expected overall results mirroring last years actual results

This is a great move to replace those 2 because they would not repeat last years results. But that does not mean that last years results did not happen. All this move does is solidify the projections that this year will repeat last years results.

This in the whole scheme of thing in a neutral move. Unless someone dramatically improves or implodes the projection this year would now equal last years output.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 6:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, if that means we're an 84-win team again

Plus whatever we can gain from the money we have left to spend, then that’s good.

Try not to take me too seriously

by calim on Dec 14, 2009 6:22 PM PST up reply actions  

thats is kind of the point

this is not a move that gains wins. This is a move that would solidify the variability of potential losses.

So now it is up to the changes in the offensive production to predict if this is a net increase or decrease in wins vs. last season.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 6:25 PM PST up reply actions  

This is absolutely a move that gains wins

We have more wins now (or when the trade is done) than we did last week. That’s the only thing we care about.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 14, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Once again, remember -

While your point on ERA is valid in my opinion, about how the best RESULTS we can expect are equal to what we got last year, we are not worried about last years team. All of these analyses are based on the team AS CURRENTLY CONSTRUCTED without any attention paid to the results of last year. All of these projections and guesses are based on how we expect players to do next year and only next year, as though we built the team from scratch starting November 2009.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 7:02 PM PST up reply actions  

You can't replace the past.

This is exactly the kind of mentality Bavasi used to assemble the 2008. Replace Horacio Ramirez’s hideous 7-ish ERA with Carlos Silva and Jeff Weaver’s 5-ish ERA with Erik Bedard.

There are too many variables that can happen during a season. Constructing a roster on the basis of every single event in a past season being repeatable doesn’t make sense. Adding Cliff Lee doesn’t “replace” the results Washburn and Bedard made because you can’t replace events that happened in the past.

And for example, Texas shipped off Kevin Millwood and signed Rich Harden. That’s a pretty nice move for Texas….until you apply this kind of result based analysis to conclude that Rich Harden has to do better than Millwood’s 3.67 ERA (2.62 ERA through 15 games). Given this, Texas made their team worse with these moves. I’m not sure how the Rangers’ current roster shapes up but this is a bad way of determining how good it will be.

Cliff Lee makes the M’s quite a bit better than they were yesterday, which is what really matters.

by ThundaPC on Dec 14, 2009 8:08 PM PST up reply actions   3 recs

Where do all these names come from?

How is there a deal in place without the players going out being locked down?

by Janic on Dec 14, 2009 5:45 PM PST reply actions  

AAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

AAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH AAHHHHHHHH NO WAY NO WAY NO WAY NO WAY NO WAY NO WAY NO WAY YOU’RE KIDDING ME sdkjfsdkajflhsdalkjfhaslkjdfhk

DO SOMETHING BAD ALREADY JACK

http://sodomojo.com/

by .Taylor on Dec 14, 2009 5:47 PM PST reply actions  

Too bad Jack can't just toss Lopez into this storm

And come out with either Hill or Utley.

Carlos Silvelite

by OceanBird on Dec 14, 2009 6:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Too bad Felix is the only player we have to a remote chance at trading for Utley.

Hey, why don’t we throw is Jack Wilson for Jimmy Rollins while we are at it!

by Wilder. on Dec 14, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Too bad we don't have a first basemen set in stone

We could have gotten Ryan Howard :(

Carlos Silvelite

by OceanBird on Dec 14, 2009 6:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Thats ESPN for you.

2009 Safeco Field Record: 6-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 10-4

by Fin on Dec 14, 2009 8:47 PM PST up reply actions  

So this probably doesn't matter since we're not getting him

But can someone tell me a bit about d’Arnaud? He’s the only name being batted around I haven’t heard of. Is he a throw in or someone Toronto would actually have interest in?

by drblacknwhite on Dec 14, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Phillies fan lurking you guys’ comments section here.

D’Arnaud was ranked by Baseball America as the Phillies’ 4th best prospect. He’s a catcher who can hit decently, which is always valuable. His numbers weren’t so great this season because of a horrible start and a lower than normal BABIP. He’s a couple of years away but he projects as a major league starter. His ceiling at the plate is probably AJ Pierzynski – solid contact hitter who is above average for his position.

by yosoysean on Dec 14, 2009 9:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Ehh, they had a .500 pythW/L last year

Technically they were better than us. They’re just limited by what they have, and the division is getting smarter.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 14, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions  

I doubt Beane has intellectually regressed

There are just fewer people for him to take advantage of.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 14, 2009 7:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Beane's situation has definitely got to be rough.

I don’t understand why he didn’t jump to a higher budget team when he likely would have had the chance several years ago.

by FlaskInSafeco on Dec 14, 2009 7:29 PM PST up reply actions  

He did have the chance.

“Fun of the challenge? Comfort at home?” and the partial ownership didn’t hurt.

by msb on Dec 14, 2009 7:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I guess I could see that,

from the comfort at home and distractions standpoint. But from the fun of the challenge standpoint, I would think it would still be a challenge with $40 million more in the budget each year. Winning the World Series ain’t easy.

by FlaskInSafeco on Dec 14, 2009 7:35 PM PST up reply actions  

I think there is a lot of panic for nothing.

We have seen what JZ values and what he does in trades. I really don’t see him giving up much in the way of top prospects. I would say obviously Aumont, but after him I don’t think he will give up too much. He knows that he will probably lose Lee after one year so why give up two more of Gillies, Triunfel, Kelley, or Saunders? He isn’t stupid. I am going to go ahead and say it will be Aumont, Gillies, and one other as a filler.

If the trade changes and Drabek enters and Lee exits, then all bets are off. I just hope Triunfel stays.

by Z0827 on Dec 14, 2009 6:07 PM PST reply actions  

A lot of panic?

There is more jubilation among the rational people than there is panic.

by Wilder. on Dec 14, 2009 6:12 PM PST up reply actions  

I think in the first thread this was true.

This one seems now that people are thinking again about losing players they like. I am the same way, at first I was pretty excited, now I just keep thinking back to Bavasi and we are going to lose all the players I really want to see in M’s uniforms.

by Z0827 on Dec 14, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I'd like everyone to remember how freaked out some people were became about the Putz trade as time dragged on.

People started mentioning Triunfel and Moore and Saunders and the like. You know why? Because these people don’t know anything about the Mariners farm system, they don’t know anything about the value of prospects and they throw names into the mix to keep the interest in the story up. For the vast majority of baseball writers prospects are completely interchangable.

It may turn out that this deal isn’t as favorable as it might have seemed at first, but there’s no good reason to think that based on any of the information currently available.

by Aaron Campeau on Dec 14, 2009 6:12 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

I have an irrational fear of losing Gillies. I just have a good feeling about him.

That said, I can’t believe how awesome our front office is.

Fear the NPE

by thewyrm on Dec 14, 2009 6:13 PM PST reply actions  

I'm with you.

When I’m being completely rational, he’s really not that big of a loss. But I saw him play in Everett and that’s when you start thinking he’s going to be the greatest player in the history of ever. My buddy had the same feeling about Jamaal Strong a few years ago.

by Kyle Rancourt on Dec 14, 2009 6:22 PM PST up reply actions  

I concur

Too close for missles, switching to guns.

by Paseman on Dec 14, 2009 7:44 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

We are giving up too much for Lee

Who scared away philly about possibly wanting a sabathia type dealafter next season…thats not happening w/seattle or anyone else. Point is,hewants elite , superstar money.

Did we not learn from the bedard train wreck? Our offense was worst in scoring runs in the league. Giving up the only potential high upside batsremaining in the system for more pitching in a pitchers park, there’s no logic there.

I love Jack Z’s no fear, aggressive attitude, but we are like the AL San Francisco Giants. All pitching, not good hitting.
The only situation will be now to overpay Jason Bay, because there is no other option but to go all in now for 1 yr of great contending while Lee is here.

The phiilies are aware, they gave much less for Lee last season, we are like their pawn just to get halladay and give up less in the process.
Ifsaundersand/or triunful are in it, this looks much worse

by MagicMike23 on Dec 14, 2009 6:53 PM PST reply actions  

Lee also comes with Type A status and draft picks!

Lee is a significantly better pitcher than Bedard!

Runs are runs!

by BrianL on Dec 14, 2009 6:55 PM PST up reply actions  

Nope.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 7:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Happ

Dude – there’s no way he comes to Seattle. None. I mean, Zduriencik is only human.

And MagicMike – we just added a 5-win player. Lee is better than Bedard. Adam Jones is much better than anyone we are rumored to be giving up (Saunders excluded, but Jones is still > Saunders). Tillman was better than Ramirez or Morrow or Aumont. Sherrill was better than Aumont.

GET IT?

by tait644 on Dec 14, 2009 6:55 PM PST reply actions  

Mickolio is also more valuable than whatever the last piece we give up is.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 8:10 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm uncontrollably giddy...

Locker staying? Lee coming? Chone here? HOLY GOD IN HEAVEN!

by THolt on Dec 14, 2009 6:58 PM PST reply actions  

Cameron to the BoSox

I love Boston’s roster. If they get Beltre they are the team to beat.

by tait644 on Dec 14, 2009 6:59 PM PST reply actions  

Dammit.

I’m still unclear on the three-way… is Saunders staying or not? Anyone who can point me towards a reliable answer?

by THolt on Dec 14, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Cammy going to the Sox...

…is shit if Saunders is on his way out.

by THolt on Dec 14, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Holliday couldnt hit in oakland

I doubt coming to safeco is an option unless overpaid. Basically its Bay or Bust, there’s really no choice.

Unless you like an offense with endy chavez, jack wilson, un named catcher, a part time griffey, etc

by MagicMike23 on Dec 14, 2009 7:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Wow dude.

He’s responding to Magic Mike saying he couldn’t hit in Oakland. Clearly he did.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 7:09 PM PST up reply actions  

My fault.

Trust me, I rarely RARELY argue with anything Jeff has to say.

by THolt on Dec 14, 2009 7:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Buh?

Jeff’s pretty awesome (he has a cool name too) but he can’t make sample sizes larger than they actually were.

by Jeff Nye on Dec 14, 2009 7:09 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm sorry, I can't find anything reliable;

Fuck Aumont, I really could care less… but Saunders? Triunfel, as Jeff said, likely isn’t going after missing a season with a broken leg.

by THolt on Dec 14, 2009 7:06 PM PST reply actions  

I have to admit

I would find it a bit hilarious if this deal blew up because the Phillies couldn’t agree to a contract extension with Halladay.

by JLC on Dec 14, 2009 7:08 PM PST reply actions  

Take into consideration the other factors

Harden costs a bit less in 2010
Keep Aumont, Saunders, Triuful. Whoever is traded.
Harden is a big draw locally which boost ticket sales.
Harden will likely be a more realistic resign than Lee’s ridiculous demands

by MagicMike23 on Dec 14, 2009 7:15 PM PST up reply actions  

We don't know what's happening, stop worrying about it.

We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it.
We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it.
We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it.
We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it. We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it. We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it. We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it.
We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it.
We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it.
We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it.
We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it. We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it. We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it. We don’t know what’s happening, stop worrying about it.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 7:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Hey! Guess what!

You don’t know who has been traded yet. And Aumont, and several other minor leaguers are useless to our team, plus we get people back when he leaves as type A. Maybe you should hold off on your analysis until there is something to analyze.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 7:17 PM PST up reply actions  

If I'm fucking up...

…please, tell me. I don’t post here, ever, but I certainly share the same philosophical views on statistical analysis that the majority of the people here do. This news broke the camel’s back; time to post.

by THolt on Dec 14, 2009 7:15 PM PST up reply actions  

It's not you or any one individual person or anything

I think it’s probably just time we stop talking about this. Time + not learning anything new = insanity

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 14, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions  

You're fine.

Just don’t encourage people that post incorrect views by responding with something that validates their opinion and you’ll be fine. Welcome to LL!

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Stark (grain of salt) on ESPN radio just now

Remember, this trade is still in progress, not set in stone yet. Drabek is likely included, so the Phils can keep D Brown, and get Aumont.

Why Seattle? Seattle in pursuit in another top rotation arm; can’t trade for Halliday, Lackey to Boston— so, Lee. Thinks they are so aggressive to show Felix how committed they are.

Why Lackey to Sox? Bay appears to be moving on, so they opted to beef up pitching instead, add Cammy, interested in Beltre.

Repeats the Angels looking to Lowe; cheaper than Lackey.

by msb on Dec 14, 2009 7:20 PM PST reply actions  

OH GOD PLEASE

PLEASE let the Angel’s add Lowe. Although his BABIP could regress some.

by THolt on Dec 14, 2009 7:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Kurkjian now chimes in

Surprised that Philly made the run (not sure why, since they were an obvious spot for Halladay) and that Lee would go, until he looked at the finances. Lee wants to stay, but only at “fair market value”, so no way they could pay him Halladay money too. He too thinks it may be the best 1-2 punch in the AL + Figgins …. “the AL West has taken a dramatic shift in the last few days”.

by msb on Dec 14, 2009 7:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Is is just me or does this make 0 sense?

“9:25pm: The Phillies would only recieve prospects from the M’s and no Philly prospects would be shipped to Toronto, sources tell Todd Zolecki of MLB.com (via Twitter).”

That would mean we’re the only team giving up any prospects whatsoever

My Mariners blog - SodoMojo, Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!

by gregrabble on Dec 14, 2009 7:37 PM PST reply actions  

Reading over it again...

It sounds like he is just saying no MARINERS prospects will be sent to Toronto.. Philly will be.

The twitter says

Sources say only Phillies would receive Seattle prospects for Lee. None would be shipped to Toronto. Kyle Drabek is involved.

by seattlesundevil on Dec 14, 2009 7:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I think it means whoever we're giving up is going to the Phillies, not the Blue Jays

And then the prospects from the Phillies go to the Blue Jays (which makes the Drabek inclusion make a hell of a lot more sense)

by Jeff Nye on Dec 14, 2009 7:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Sounds like a great deal for everyone.

- Toronto gets highly ranked prospects for Halladay.

- Philly gets the pitcher they want while taking a small drop in prospect value.

- Seattle gets a top pitcher for fair prospect value.

by Wilder. on Dec 14, 2009 7:46 PM PST up reply actions  

The only one getting screwed..

is Halladay, which makes the deal possible.

by coreyjro on Dec 14, 2009 7:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Exactly.

This entire deal doesn’t happen if he doesn’t want it to happen. Halladay has all the leverage he wants in this situation, making him the most in control.

by Wilder. on Dec 14, 2009 7:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Didn't say you did.

But the “getting screwed” explanation was quickly debunked.

by Wilder. on Dec 14, 2009 7:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Alright, alright...

He’s taking a contract that is well below his market value which would easily be north of $120 million. So if he’s getting half of what he could get, one might say he’s getting screwed.

by coreyjro on Dec 14, 2009 7:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Halladay wouldn't ever get 4/120.

He’s getting ~80% of what he might be able to get on the open market.

by Wilder. on Dec 14, 2009 7:59 PM PST up reply actions  

...which is significantly less than 4/120

Even if he’s a bagboy at Albertson’s for those other 2 years, which is relatively unlikely.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 8:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh wait.

I see what you did there. I am stupid.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 8:02 PM PST up reply actions  

Sure, 6/120.

But 6/120 is not half of 4/60. It’s 75% the value.

by Wilder. on Dec 14, 2009 8:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Value is still the same.

The risk is transferred to Halladay. He could make more/less than $20 million/per with a new contract in three years.

Same value, different risk.

by Wilder. on Dec 14, 2009 8:08 PM PST up reply actions  

"The risk is transferred to Halladay."

What?

Roy Halladay is 32. The risk of injury/lost of effectiveness over the course of a six year deal greatly outweigh the odds that he is going to be able to get 3/60 at the age of 35.

Would you rather the Mariners sign Nick Johnson for 1/8 or 2/16? There’s value in security for the player and risk in commitment to the team.

by Aaron Campeau on Dec 14, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions  

"There’s value in security for the player and risk"

Exactly!

Halladay must feel he can make $20 million/yr with his next contract. Or maybe he thinks he can get 4/60 or 4/100 in three years. Or maybe he wants to re-evaluate his career after three years to decide if he wants to retire.

Security is the risk Halladay is taking. We don’t know his reasons. Only he and the Phillies can decide what that risk is worth. In terms of a 3/60 and 6/120 contract, they have the same value. The security and risk is transferred and Halladay must feel he is taking the right deal for him. Those extra years might be valuable to someone like you, but it might not be for him.

Is 6/120 a better deal than 3/60? Sure, but Halladay would have to play another season to get there. Who knows if he suffers a career-ending injury in 2010? What if the market doesn’t give him $20m/year next offseason? There’s risk involved, but at face value, 3/60 is the same as 6/120. There’s too many other variables to say otherwise. Again, it’s up to Halladay and Phillies to decide how those variables play into the two contract sizes.

But I digress.

by Wilder. on Dec 14, 2009 8:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Let me make this more painful.

Carlos Silva $14 million for one year is not the same as Carlos Silva $54 million for four years.

by coreyjro on Dec 14, 2009 8:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Dude, you guys are saying the same thing.

The only difference is that Wilder realizes that and you don’t.

by Terminator X on Dec 14, 2009 8:41 PM PST up reply actions  

That also assumes that

He’d be able to get another 3 year $60 million deal.

by coreyjro on Dec 14, 2009 8:12 PM PST up reply actions  

He was under contract for 2010 already.

The extension is for 2011-2013.

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Dec 14, 2009 8:04 PM PST up reply actions  

It depends on what he's playing major league baseball for...

Could be that $20M a year and a possible World Series ring are enough, at least for now. And he could still earn more afterwards.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 7:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Halladay has also made a good amount of money in his career already, too.

His last contract was 3/40 and a 4/60 would make him a $100 million man, plus an option year which will likely be another $15-20 million. Halladay will be just fine.

by Wilder. on Dec 14, 2009 7:57 PM PST up reply actions  

I know it's Baker citing Stark

But he has a rundown on his blog, says we’re giving up Aumont and Gilles to the Phillies. d’Arnaud, Taylor and one of Happ or Drabek going to Toronto.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/index.html

by ungoreatstefan on Dec 14, 2009 7:40 PM PST reply actions  

I am

It makes me a very happy man, I’ve got a lot of friends who are Phillies fans out here, and they’ve been texting me all day about how upset they are about losing Lee.

This will just make it sweeter if true.

by ungoreatstefan on Dec 14, 2009 7:42 PM PST up reply actions  

I like the way "Aumont and Gillies to the Phillies" sounds.

Also the way “Gillick acquires Gillies”, thought not as much. I think that right there is reason enough for the the trade to go through.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 7:49 PM PST up reply actions  

As insane as this is for us

Can you imagine being Phillipe Aumont? First he’s going back to Canada to play for a suck team, then he’s going to Philly to play for a WS contender. His big, Canadian head must be about to explode.

by short on Dec 14, 2009 7:45 PM PST reply actions  

"First he’s going back to Canada to play for a suck team, then he’s going to Philly to play for a WS contender. "

What are you talking about? Nothing’s changed from what we knew 6 hours ago. Every rumor since then has been people guessing which, again, you should not worry about since it is meaningless.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 7:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Canadians have special super senses

Like back bacon sense. It’s like hearing only more powerful.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 7:48 PM PST up reply actions  

If I were to venture a guess.

I would say that most likely the only people he hears this information about are people that are at least somewhat involved. He’s not reading MLBTR, Twitter and the comments on LL, which is where the vast majority of these rumors are starting. But I could be wrong.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 7:49 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not sure if he even knows English all that well

I was under the impression that he only had a small grasp of it when he was drafted

by JLC on Dec 14, 2009 7:50 PM PST up reply actions  

I actually don't think they are.

They’re separatists.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 7:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah...

Not to get too political but even when it was at its heyday, the separatist movement only got like 45% of the vote and even that number is contested (IIRC there was a bunch of chicanery in that election). Stopping politics now!

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 7:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I know me a Quebecois

She’s multilingual. Then again she teaches French. Also, she wears striped shirts and eats baguettes.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 7:53 PM PST up reply actions  

There is also an assuredness that people are providing these comments

like “X is going to Philly” and “We’re getting X” that is completely untrue, and only if Aumont is reading these types of comments is he going to get that kind of impression.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 7:52 PM PST up reply actions  

I've been following Jayson Stark

As he’s updated his article throughout the day. He had Aumont going to Toronto, now he’s saying Aumont will go to the Phillies with Drabek to the Jays. That’s where I’m getting this. I don’t know whether Stark is more or less reliable than other sources.

by short on Dec 14, 2009 9:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Am I the only one here offended by Aumont's name?

Whenever I see it I think of Altamont. And that makes me think of the Hell’s Angels killing that dude. And February made me shiver. With every paper I’d deliver.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 7:57 PM PST reply actions  

Look at me! I am up on my high horse!

I do not get offended at names and am therefore better than Johnny Slick!

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 7:58 PM PST up reply actions  

GOD

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Dec 14, 2009 7:57 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Maybe.

There was some lurker who crowed about it when we drafted him because Quebecois are the worst of France and Canada put together, apparently.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 8:15 PM PST up reply actions  

=D

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 8:03 PM PST reply actions   3 recs

My browser hates you.

I, personally, find this adorable. Or not.

by THolt on Dec 14, 2009 8:04 PM PST up reply actions  

That show rocks.

It’s the epitome of the stupid comedy that is actually smart.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 8:05 PM PST up reply actions  

KITTENS.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 8:15 PM PST up reply actions  

What about Tui?

M’s are likely unloading at least one of Triunfel, Aumont and Saunders. But they are probably looking at offloading Tui. Figgins/Lopez (Ackley)/Wilson are blocking out Tui’s positions and Toronto’s infield is lacking pieces.

by magistermilitum on Dec 14, 2009 8:13 PM PST reply actions  

There's always the chance of another trade down the road

Maybe they can get something else for him. Why exhaust all your resources in one haul? That’s one of the biggest differences between Bavasi and JZ.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 8:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Sure but the only consistent name is Aumont.

And we’re selling at least 3 players here. Triunfel has a greater future in this org than Tui.

by magistermilitum on Dec 14, 2009 8:17 PM PST up reply actions  

I highly doubt

That Z will be willing to pull a Bavasi and give up 3 of his best prospects, even for Lee. There is going to be some sort of filler in there.

by magistermilitum on Dec 14, 2009 8:22 PM PST up reply actions  

He has only one-fourth the grit though.

And grit is what wins ballgames, son. Not that so-called talent. You think Davey Eckstein’s in the league because of talent?

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 8:29 PM PST up reply actions  

That strikes me as misguided.

But GMZ knows his shit, and I don’t know enough about Tri’s skillset to really form an opinion. Thoughts?

by THolt on Dec 14, 2009 8:32 PM PST up reply actions  

For my money, Triunfel will be a league average infielder before Brandon Morrow is as a starter.

Morrow has just been so mishandled by this organization, I don’t see him finding success until he’s with another team, if he ever finds sustained success at all.

by katal on Dec 14, 2009 8:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Last I heard Triunfel is getting fat

I don’t know if he’s gonna turn out to be the prospect we had hoped. Its too early to really tell but there is a lot of risk and I’m not sure how big the reward will be anymore.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 14, 2009 9:58 PM PST up reply actions  

But we're not making the trade

so randomly throwing out names that would be better for us doesn’t really help.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 8:18 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought the Putz/Greene/whoever else trade proved

that throwing out names that would be better for us actually can work.

by magistermilitum on Dec 14, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Not that I think Philly wants Tui

but I fail to see how Placido Polanco’s $6M per year keeps Tui out of the lineup if he can rake.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 8:18 PM PST up reply actions  

How has Tui proved he can rake?

Tui in AAA: .366/.460/.826
Mike Morse in AAA: .353/.460/.813

Granted, Tui’s not a defensive disaster like Morse is, but…

Tuglett in AAA: .372 /.457/.830

by eponymous_coward on Dec 14, 2009 9:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Makes sense

But the Jays fans were complaining about needing more infield prospects http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/

I definitely don’t seeing Philly wanting Tui, but I am betting at least one of our chips isn’t as valued as a Saunders, Aumont or Morrow.

by magistermilitum on Dec 14, 2009 8:20 PM PST up reply actions  

What fans want is irrelevant.

and so far all we have heard with any degree of certainty from reliable sources is Aumont, Gillis and possibly Morrow and/or Triunfel. There is no reason to believe the other names since they are irrelevant. We could talk about giving them all 112 of our minor leaguers but that won’t make it true.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think you're quite getting my point

but I’m not necessarily interested in continuing this conversation further since it won’t really go anywhere productive. So … Okay!

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 8:26 PM PST up reply actions  

The dude costs only like 4 mil and projects to be at minimum 1 or 2 wins with rebound potential in his bat.

I don’t really see what makes him a bad player for a team to have. His defense isn’t great but his bat is still pretty awesome.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 8:34 PM PST up reply actions  

eh?

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 8:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Encarnacion would be switching leagues and had a bad 2009.

Being that we have Cliff Lee for only one season, I want a third baseman with minimal risk.

by katal on Dec 14, 2009 8:38 PM PST up reply actions  

I did not read most of the thread. Although yeah, I forgot he was traded to Toronto.

That said, I stand by my point. The guy may rebound offensively, but his defense is atrocious.

by katal on Dec 14, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions  

I also wasn't talking about throwing him into a trade

AND I was talking about why these teams would want Tui, when they have those players – Tui, of course, being equally not a sure thing. None of it had to do with trading him/switching leagues, or anything else that you mentioned.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 8:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Encarnacion's career high in WAR is 2.0

And he’s established himself as well below average in the field. Then he capped it off last year by not being able to hit anymore.

by coreyjro on Dec 14, 2009 8:40 PM PST up reply actions  

I see what you're saying

but I disagree with you. And "not being able to hit anymore’ was only in the first couple of months in the season. After that he was considerably better. And again, he really doesn’t cost much and they’ve already signed him to the 4 mil contract, and he’ll very likely be worth at least his value, making it a fine deal with the potential to turn out postitively in their favor. No reason they’d want to replace Encarnacion with an equally likely WAR guy in Tui.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 14, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Latest......

“10:12pm: Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun (via Twitter) has Toronto getting Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D’Arnaud; Philly getting Roy Halladay and Philippe Aumont; and the Mariners getting Cliff Lee, plus another piece (or, pieces).”

My Mariners blog - SodoMojo, Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!

by gregrabble on Dec 14, 2009 8:18 PM PST reply actions  

So....

We’ve gone from a GM who was especially susceptible to mind control devices to one that seems own one himself?

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 8:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Well..

neither does masturbation to a photo of Jack Z. Which, may happen if this is true.

by PLU Tim on Dec 14, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Just read that...

He has officially lost credibility in my eyes…

by seattlesundevil on Dec 14, 2009 8:22 PM PST up reply actions  

I love when reporters report...

…well, nothing. “Piece?” A gun? A bong? Jesus leave it alone. Fuck the internet. That said, may I hypocritically ask if SB has an add-on I can use to monitor threads off-page?

by THolt on Dec 14, 2009 8:20 PM PST reply actions  

Read about 60% of the thread before hitting Shift-A.

What the Hell. Learn how form a sentence, New Posters.

by katal on Dec 14, 2009 8:24 PM PST reply actions  

Except for the bit about how we're getting Cliff Lee

for Philip Aumont and a petrified starfish. I think a sand dollar may be involved as well.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 8:51 PM PST up reply actions  

ESPN keeps calling it companion trades

So not technically a three-way deal, assuming they’re right.

by drblacknwhite on Dec 14, 2009 8:53 PM PST up reply actions  

New rule to all the baseball insiders, reporters, columnists, or whatever.

Don’t talk about a fucking trade unless it is either done or within hours of being fucking done.

Having to wait this long and then having to put up with the endless stream of rumors should be a Geneva convention violation somehow.

FUCK THE DBACKS!

by Goose on Dec 14, 2009 9:12 PM PST reply actions  

Well, the only counter then is a deal like the one Jim Kelly got in the USFL

30 years, $200 million. Sign him for 6 and put the other $100 mil into a Dolgoff Plan.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 9:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Close.

Small payouts over 30 years mean you can invest a small portion of what you’re actually giving out. Of course, the flip side is that the player could just do that himself. They did this all the time in the ABA. I think some guys are still receiving their payments from their teams.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh well.

But now I’m gonna be pissed if Saunders is going away.

FUCK THE DBACKS!

by Goose on Dec 14, 2009 9:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Huh. That's excessive, but ok

Time to find a power bat we can trade Morrow for.

by Graham MacAree on Dec 14, 2009 9:23 PM PST up reply actions  

Jayson Stark

Says we only give up Aumont and Gillies for Lee.

I like this one best.

by tait644 on Dec 14, 2009 9:19 PM PST reply actions  

What, no Raul and Utley?

This deal sucks. We’re giving up too much.

by eponymous_coward on Dec 14, 2009 9:20 PM PST reply actions  

This is all way to confusing

I bet it is no where near as good as best case ans no where near as bad as worst case when this whole clusterfuck gets fixed.

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 9:20 PM PST reply actions  

HUmmm
@Ken_Rosenthal #Phils getting $6M from #Jays in Halladay deal. Drabek, Taylor, likely D’Arnaud to TOR, Aumont, Gillies and 3rd player to PHI…

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 9:25 PM PST reply actions  

So basically....

3rd Player – Saunders = Bad
3rd Player – Triunfel or Morrow =Wash
3rd Player – Anyone else = Good?

FUCK THE DBACKS!

by Goose on Dec 14, 2009 9:34 PM PST up reply actions  

I would put Triunfel in the bad category

Simply because I don’t like selling that low on a prospect.

by JLC on Dec 14, 2009 9:35 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think it's that he's overrated so much as he can't have that much value to GMs right now

That being said, if somebody’s going crazy over him at this point, why not? Part of the reason he’s undervalued is that next year really is a huge question mark.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 14, 2009 9:39 PM PST up reply actions  

He was not a top twenty prospect and never has been

He’s always been a massive risk, massive reward guy, and the risk is hitting now.

by Graham MacAree on Dec 14, 2009 9:40 PM PST up reply actions  

I would like to keep him around to see if he reaches that potential, but if he's in the deal I won't freak out.

I think the questions about whether or not he’ll hit for any power are legit, he’s lost a lot of development time and he’s already destined for a corner. His ceiling isn’t what it was two years ago, and while he’s still very young, I just don’t see him becoming a star.

It’s admittedly just a gut feeling, as I’m not anywhere close to qualified to judge a 19-year-old player I’ve never seen outside the AFL, but I’m not super-high on him.

by Teej on Dec 14, 2009 9:56 PM PST up reply actions  

that would be about right

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 9:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed

I feel like if it was a guy like Saunders, they would be mentioning his name. They seem to just be saying third guy because the mainstream sportscenter watching folks won’t know who he is.

by SebastianPruiti on Dec 14, 2009 9:28 PM PST up reply actions  

My guess if Truinfel

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 9:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Exactly what Stark is saying

I don’t trust Stark or Rosenthal for their analysis, but if those two are in agreement on a breaking story, it’s probably pretty good info.

Let’s just hope the third player not Tri, Saunders, or Morrow and is the previously mentioned Ramirez.

by edddgar on Dec 14, 2009 9:30 PM PST up reply actions  

Also, if the final player is going to Philadelphia

Rule out Saunders, with Ibanez/Victorino/Werth I doubt he’s of any interest to Philly. For Triunfel, they would have to be sold on him being at third long term. Morrow doesn’t have a spot in the rotation in Philly so I doubt he’s an option either.

by edddgar on Dec 14, 2009 9:34 PM PST up reply actions  

the dreaded ?
Once Halladay ext. complete Jays get RHP Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor, C Travis D’Arnaud, Phils get Halladay, Aumont, $6 M, M’s: Lee and ? about 1 hour ago from web

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 9:30 PM PST up reply actions  

How is that dreaded?

If that’s true we get Lee and a bonus prize.

by BrianL on Dec 14, 2009 9:31 PM PST up reply actions  

because ? could mean 1 guy or 3

Don’t like that. That ends up being a bad thing in the long run

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 9:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Because it is obvious that something is not right

if the Tor Sun writer is still dropping stuff like this then there is no way to know if any of these particulars are correct.

If the M’s are getting a return on Aumont for Lee (which is baffling in itself) what is it? Is it 2 huge contracts like Moyers and Lidge?

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 9:38 PM PST up reply actions  

or even worse

VERNON WELLS

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 9:42 PM PST up reply actions  

there is a reason why I worry when I see that dreaded ?

To many bad things that could happen, especially when teams start including $$ in deals and the M’s have some financial flexibility

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 9:44 PM PST up reply actions  

we have already accepted that it is possible that the guy is a nut

maybe he is just senile and forgot… That is what the ? is for

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 9:46 PM PST up reply actions  

My try:

TOR:
Drabek
Taylor
D’Arnaud
Tui

PHI:
Halladay
Aumont
Gilles

SEA:
Lee

by magistermilitum on Dec 14, 2009 9:27 PM PST reply actions  

Tui, Aumont and Gilles? Quesitonable.

Bobby Valentine saying more prospects involved. “Mortgaging.” GMZ does no such thing.

by THolt on Dec 14, 2009 9:32 PM PST up reply actions  

Seattle has to give something to Toronto for this deal to make sense.

Tui or Triu are the best bets, but will we get rid of Triu and Aumont?

by magistermilitum on Dec 14, 2009 9:35 PM PST up reply actions  

It's not a three-way deal anymore..

It is now being reported as a companion trade. Everyone has now said that no prospects are going to Toronto from Seattle. Toronto is getting a boatload of talent from Philly.

by seattlesundevil on Dec 14, 2009 9:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes I realize

So you are claiming that Philly doesn’t want a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels next year and would prefer to pull in cheap talent using Lee while they can? Why didn’t Philly just make this move last summer then? Doesn’t add up.

by magistermilitum on Dec 14, 2009 9:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Paraphrasing a guy from another board, here's what I'm trying to say:

Doing a two-step and trading Lee to Seattle and (seperately trading) prospects to Toronto essentially means Philly ended up trading: Carrasco, Knapp, Donald, Marson, Happ or Drabek, Taylor and D’Arnaud

for: 2 months of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and 1 prospect (Aumonte or Gilles).

That’s terrible management if it’s true. More likely Toronto is getting a piece from Seattle and Philly is losing one less prospect.

by magistermilitum on Dec 14, 2009 9:49 PM PST up reply actions  

well that and the added revenue for almost winning the WS

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 9:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah like Jeff said, what they did last year helped get them to another World Series

And that was the whole point of that deal. This is a different situation.

by OlSalty on Dec 14, 2009 11:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Moar_bacon_small
Everything I Know About Jesus Montero

Recent FanPosts

Wbc_029_small
Friday Morning Music Thread
Small
OTDOD - Early February Edition
Agentejebaox3_small
A Statistical Analysis of Mariners' Fan Support
Small
Who will have a better season?
Claw_small
BA's Top 10 M's Prospects
Wbc_029_small
Friday Morning Music Thread
Small
Munenori Kawasaki Predictions!!!
Small
The Longevity and Future Success of Felix Hernandez.
Small
The present vs future conundrum

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Sexy People

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Small Matthew