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Cliff Lee Is Really Good

Right now, signs seem to be that the Mariners will be receiving Cliff Lee in this three-way trade. It is not yet official, as Roy Halladay still has to okay a contract extension with the Phillies, but many consider that nothing but a formality, so I'm pretty comfortable with the feeling that this is a done deal. As such (and with the understanding that, yeah, this could all still blow up):

  • Over the last two years, Lee has thrown 495.1 innings over 70 starts, postseason included. His ERA over that span is under three, his FIP is under three, his xFIP is well under four, and his tRA is well under four. While he's not likely to sustain his low rate of home runs, this isn't one of those situations where regression turns a seemingly good pitcher into a disappointing one - even allowing for some statistical normalcy, Lee still comes out looking aces. He is the definition of a workhorse, and though he's not young, the worst injury he's ever had is a hernia, so there are few better bets for 2010. No single pitcher is a guarantee, but Lee's about as close as you're going to get. And we don't even need to worry about a league adjustment.

  • Lee succeeds in the same way that Ben Sheets used to succeed - by just throwing strikes over and over with sufficiently good stuff to maintain a solid strikeout rate. He doesn't miss a ton of bats - his contact rate is actually below-average - but he's consistently ahead in the count, which puts him at a significant advantage. In a way, he and Felix take remarkably different paths towards a similar end result, and it'll be all kinds of fun to watch them BACK TO BACK OH MY GOD

  • OH MY GOD

  • It's important not to pay too much attention to early reports of what the Mariners are giving up, here. There are a ton of names floating around and, without confirmation, we're essentially left guessing. But while everyone's nervous about how much we're losing, remember that Lee didn't bring back an amazing haul from Philly last July, and now he only has a year left on his contract. Pitchers with a year left generally don't get jaw-dropping returns, no matter how good they are. Johan Santana only got Carlos Gomez and some pieces, and Santana even negotiated a long-term contract. We will lose some real talented young players, but barring complete surprise, this is not a trade that's going to gut the system, because good executives don't gut the system for a guy on a one-year deal.

  • It's also important to remember, as Graham has pointed out, that Cliff Lee's a virtual lock to be a Type A free agent next winter. Which means we can either sign him to an extension, trade him midseason, or let him walk and collect a pair of draft picks. Even though he's set to be a free agent, it is highly unlikely that he only makes a one-year impact.

  • That Lee is a free agent next winter is, of course, a big concern, since the Mariners are good but by no means league favorites. The odds right now are against his remaining here for a while. He's only set to make $9m in 2010, and he's going to want his payday. That said, letting him pitch in this ballpark with this defense...I don't think Lee's going to be granting anyone any kind of discount, but if the Mariners can convince him that this is as perfect a situation as any, they could lock him up before next fall. If they want to. He's a lefty in a big stadium with an amazing group of gloves and a front office that's moving the organization in the right direction. Seattle's a great place for a guy like Lee.

  • Remember when Daisuke Matsuzaka was making his home debut and Felix stole the spotlight by throwing a one-hitter? The Red Sox signed John Lackey this morning. Anyone notice? Suck it Boston.

  • It took something like two months for those damn Erik Bedard rumors to come to fruition. I woke up this morning thinking about Ian Snell and hours later we're a Roy Halladay signature away from grabbing Cliff Lee out of the blue. Jack Zduriencik is a magician. Rumors fly around all the time, but who had him getting Lee? Or Figgins? Or Gutierrez? It can be aggravating to follow a team with a front office this quiet, but it can also be the most exhilarating thing in the world.

  • The Angels lost Chone Figgins, they lost John Lackey, they missed out on Roy Halladay, they missed out on Cliff Lee, and if the Red Sox finish this Mike Lowell deal, they'll probably miss out on Adrian Beltre. They did manage to land Hideki Matsui, but that's by no means a high-impact addition. If you thought it was frustrating to miss Rich Harden, imagine how Tony Reagins must feel.

  • Cliff Lee does not, on his own, make us a great team. He just adds a handful of wins. I know it's no fun to look at things this way, since everyone wants to daydream about the Felix/Lee 1-2 punch leading us to the Series, but it is something we all have to keep in mind. That said, this division - once again - lacks a strong frontrunner, so these added wins are huge. And Z isn't done. Because Lee only costs $9m this year, we still have at least $10m or so to address other needs, and there exists the possibility that ownership could be convinced to spend even more.

  • This can't be for real.

  • You know who's going to be really excited about this? Felix. That couldn't hurt.

  • Ian Snell walked more batters in 145 innings last year than Cliff Lee has walked in his last 489.

0 recs  |  Comment 273 comments |

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Perhaps I should clarify:

This comment was only meant to highlight the superlative sexiness of Cliff Lee by comparing him to Erik Bedard, who is already known to possess sexy qualities. Not sure if that helps, but there it is.

by FlaskInSafeco on Dec 14, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Now I see why Z wasn't going after Lackey...

(Well, aside from the cash/years—ick)

He felt he needed to counter Jack Wilson/Mike Carp and Lackey would’ve just made this team unwatchably ugly.

by Adam B on Dec 14, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions  

sexy, sexy signing

I really hope the ownership can toss out a few million more to make a serious run this year, if it’s looking this special and if Jack Z can manage a roster

by Will Kier on Dec 14, 2009 2:45 PM PST reply actions  

I didn't know I could orgasm reading...


My Bavasi-gland is still pumping cynicism juice through my veins in an effort to quell my adrenal response. As long as Moore and Triunfel aren’t being shown the door, I think it will lose.

by Adam B on Dec 14, 2009 2:51 PM PST reply actions  

Seriously.

Morrow + a C-prospect for Dunn?

by craig3410 on Dec 14, 2009 2:52 PM PST reply actions  

.394 wOBA in the NL, so he'd be a decent DH, at least 2 wins

but still, we already have that roster spot filled, and Dunn would cost talent to acquire, so no thanks

by seattlebruin on Dec 14, 2009 4:15 PM PST up reply actions  

It's still a roster spot down

like Dave has pointed out, assuming 12 pitchers and 8 position players, you have five more spots

Griffey
Backup C
Backup OF
Backup IF
Preferably right-handed batter who can play DH

by seattlebruin on Dec 14, 2009 4:18 PM PST up reply actions  

This defense stays healthy I'd really like to see one of the bullpen spots go away.

Seems like an ace defense ought to be worth enough extra innings out of a healthy starting rotation.

by Kermit. on Dec 14, 2009 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm getting excited about the rotation next year.

Felix, Lee, Morrow, RRS, and Snell. That has good upside.

by Kirk on Dec 14, 2009 2:59 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

What about Or?

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 4:08 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm cool with one going

Just not both.

And I agree w/Jeff – Morrow going is better than Saunders going.

by tait644 on Dec 14, 2009 4:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah.

I watched Morrow dominate the Yankees on local TV here, but I have trouble believing he can do it consistently and the possibility that he was just making crap up about wanting to be a reliever because of his condition, or whatever it was, kind of left a sour taste in my mouth.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes Cliff Lee is really good.

Bedard was also really good.

What are we giving up for Cliff Lee, that is very important.
I’m mostly hoping its not Saunders.

by ARock on Dec 14, 2009 3:04 PM PST reply actions  

Bedard had many, many more questions about him than Lee has

And we’re not giving up our entire farm system this time, either.

by Jeff Nye on Dec 14, 2009 3:05 PM PST up reply actions  

Bedard is to Lee

as Jose Lopez is to Chase Utley.

by davidcameron on Dec 14, 2009 3:08 PM PST up reply actions  

More Venezuelan?

Usually I value your analysis, Dave, but that doesn’t make sense to me. Bedard isn’t Latino

by Graham on Dec 14, 2009 3:10 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

In all seriousness, not sure that's a fair comparison

since Lopez derives a lot of value from being boringly consistent and playing a lot of games at a decent level, whereas Bedard is awesome when he’s healthy, but isn’t really healthy for enough time to have a huge impact

by seattlebruin on Dec 14, 2009 3:11 PM PST up reply actions  

according to SI

The Mariners are likely to be parting ways with Phillippe Aumont, a talented right-handed pitcher and Canadian native, in the trade, though it’s not yet clear whether he would go to Toronto or Philadelphia. Another name being discussed as possiblye leaving Seattle is Michael Saunders, a speedy outfielder. It appears the Mariners are tying to keep 25-year-old righty Brandon Morrow out of the deal, which is not expected to be finalized on Monday due to its complexity.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/14/phillies.halladay.lee/index.html?eref=sihp#ixzz0Zhx6oBSr
Get a free NFL Team Jacket and Tee with SI Subscription

by Jerikantilles on Dec 14, 2009 3:18 PM PST reply actions  

Me too.

I’d also rather give Morrow.

We have SIX YEARS of Saunders.

by ARock on Dec 14, 2009 3:44 PM PST up reply actions  

In the Bedard deal, it wouldve been a terrible deal even if we got 2 good seasons from Bedard

Because we gave up too much.

Here we get 1 year of Lee. It really depends on who we are losing.
For now, I’m trusting that Zduriencik isnt screwing us and giving away too much.

6 years of Saunders would be too much, imo.
Morrow/Aumont probably fine.

I’ll trust people like Dave Cameron and Jeff’s analysis of this way more than my own. But personally I dont want to see a move that sacrifices the future for one good year, even if we do get a good year out of it. Sacrificing relatively minor pieces of the future is perfectly ok, those are replacable. We just need to not give away Adam Jones 2.0 for Bedard 2.0.

by ARock on Dec 14, 2009 3:26 PM PST reply actions  

Me too!

I just dont want to end up feeling a lot less excited about 2011-2012.

by ARock on Dec 14, 2009 3:45 PM PST up reply actions  

Yes indeed.

That is a deal that is insane.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Have you heard anything else about it?

I’m really hoping that these Morrow/Saunders rumors start to die down because I’m getting a bit worried

by seattlebruin on Dec 14, 2009 3:53 PM PST up reply actions  

They can have Morrow

I am convinced that this org has mindfucked him into uselessness

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 14, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Worst case Morrow is a useful reliever right now, and a legit closer

I’d pretty strongly prefer to hang onto him, but agreed that I’d much rather see him go away than Saunders

by seattlebruin on Dec 14, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions  

By uselessness I meant a wildly inconsistent 4/5 starter

He can relieve, though I’m not so sure he has the control to be a closer. SOmetimes he just can’t find the zone at all.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 14, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Despite popular belief, I have no relevant contacts whatsoever.

They can take Morrow though, and I wouldn’t care that much.

Hands off Saunders unless Holliday is in the bag.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Okay, Here's What I Don't Get

So, the M’s have the prospects to satisfy Toronto. Why not just deal with them directly, instead of three-teaming it and bringing in Cliff Lee?

Caveat: In no way am I suggesting that acquiring Cliff Lee is bad. It’s good. It might be better than bringing in Halladay, when you consider payroll and contract extensions and the like. I am not sure.

I’m wondering why the Blue Jays felt the need to complicate things by bringing in a third party.

by robbbbbb on Dec 14, 2009 3:32 PM PST reply actions  

Roy Hallady would only accept a deal to a few teams

He required an extension, a contender, and a team that trained close to his home in Florida.

by arbeck77 on Dec 14, 2009 3:33 PM PST up reply actions  

They probably

Want a lot more prospects than what the Mariners are giving up in this three team trade. You figure the Phils give up a few prospects to Toronto, Lee to Mariners, Mariners give up a couple prospects to the Phils, some go to Toronto, some stay in Philly.

by ungoreatstefan on Dec 14, 2009 3:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Okay, I get what y'all are saying

And it makes some sense. But why, then, are the Phils spending cash and resources to swap one veteran pitcher for another? You look at raw WAR numbers, and Halladay and Hamels have been equally valuable for the last two years. You might could make an argument for durability, &c, but I’m trying to figure out what Philly’s motivation to make this deal is.

Something doesn’t quite add up, to me. But I’ll take it.

by robbbbbb on Dec 14, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Ruben Amaro <3 Halladay

They wanted him the whole time… as an M’s fan, I’d just shut up and enjoy another GM being a fanboy like you did when you got Cedeno and Garrett Olsen from the Cubs for Aaron Heilman.

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field

by jameslcrockett on Dec 14, 2009 3:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Man, he is sexy

A rotation of Felix, Lee, Morrow, RSS would be hot. Snell…eh, I could see it, but not my type exactly.

Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle

by appleshampoo on Dec 14, 2009 3:37 PM PST reply actions  

Fister is like 8 feet tall.

He would increase the cute quotient more than Snell, but Snell will probably (hopefully) be better if he gets his head on straight.

Mariners/D Broncos/BSU Broncos fan in Seattle

by appleshampoo on Dec 14, 2009 3:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Probably Felix, Lee, RRS, Sneel, Fister??

Since we probably lose Morrow here in the trade?

by ARock on Dec 14, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Sounds like Morrow is the one guy who is definitely not leaving

which gives us lots of options for the back of the rotation behind Felix and Lee (assuming this gets done)

by seattlebruin on Dec 14, 2009 3:48 PM PST up reply actions  

Actually.... we might be able to extend Lee...

Was reading the ESPN article

Lee, the 2008 AL Cy Young winner with Cleveland, will make $8 million in 2010 and then be eligible for free agency.

Lee has told the Phillies he would like to stay but wants to be paid what the market will bear.

I wonder if the same might apply to us, or if that was an arrangement that was more exclusive to Philly.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 3:51 PM PST reply actions  

I read somewhere else that Lee had made it clear he wouldn't give a hometown discount

and wanted market value. I can’t imagine GMZ won’t at least kick the tires a bit, but I’m completely OK with getting one year from Lee and two draft picks if they can’t work out something reasonable.

by seattlebruin on Dec 14, 2009 3:52 PM PST up reply actions  

Jack plays hardball.

It’s hard to imagine him giving a huge contract if he can avoid it.

More likely, he’ll put an offer on the table, and say it’s a shame if he doesn’t take it, and then walk away from the matter. The rest is up to Lee.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Yup, and I like the way he operates

again, marrying yourself to one specific non-Felix or Ichiro player is how contracts like Carlos Silva happen

by seattlebruin on Dec 14, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Just so everyone knows, Silva is pitching in Venezuela right now

and he fucking sucks.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Not always.

But the LVBP ~= double-A competition.

8.0 IP, 14 H (3 HR), 2/3 K/BB

He fucking sucks.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I was kidding anyway.

Winter league stats seem to me to be like the SATs. If you do well it doesn’t mean you’re good. But if you blow…

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 14, 2009 4:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Edwin Hurtado is good in the LVBP.

It doesn’t take a whole lot.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 4:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Everyone is so worked up about Cliff Lee's pitching...

I’m not convinced that’s why J-Z wanted him.

Think about it – Gutierrez, Figgins, etc. It’s all about defense. Now imagine Cliff Lee’s gold glove behind the back catches up the center. That’s what this trade is all about. Gold gloves potential in every position.

(or it could just be that Lee is awesome.)

by Kunkoh on Dec 14, 2009 3:53 PM PST reply actions  

Nope
Outfielder Michael Saunders and right-hander Brandon Morrow were also among the Seattle prospects in play.

It wasn’t immediately clear how many players would be included in the deal. One person familiar with the talks said he didn’t anticipate an announcement on Monday, an indication that the customary review of medical records is not yet complete.

by OlSalty on Dec 14, 2009 3:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Not really
Outfielder Michael Saunders and right-hander Brandon Morrow were also among the Seattle prospects in play.

Just means that there are rumours about them

by Graham on Dec 14, 2009 3:56 PM PST up reply actions  

All Three is Too Much

I could see Aumont + (Morrow or Saunders). That sounds like a fair deal to me.

by robbbbbb on Dec 14, 2009 3:57 PM PST up reply actions  

From Let's Go Tribe

I know how you guys like your memes, so I thought I’d drop this on you. Might get some mileage out of it:

Dennis Manoloff: Favorite book?
Cliff Lee: I don’t think I’ve read a book in my life, to be honest.

Steel Nick

by nickjs21 on Dec 14, 2009 3:57 PM PST reply actions  

But he's a master chess player, so...

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 4:02 PM PST up reply actions  

This is a Bedard response level of awesome.
DM: What is one thing about you that people don’t know?

CL: If I tell you, they would know.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 14, 2009 4:04 PM PST up reply actions  

I think I'm in love...

DM: What is one thing about you that people don’t know?
CL: If I tell you, they would know.

by I Lick Squirrels on Dec 14, 2009 4:04 PM PST up reply actions  

As a Rangers fan

I’m officially worried about the M’s….and I didn’t think it would happen this soon.

by Drew062682 on Dec 14, 2009 3:58 PM PST reply actions  

You think?

I guess it all rests on the health of Harden and Hamilton (assuming he remembers how to hit)

by Drew062682 on Dec 14, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions  

You're the better team.

Check out our lineup. Seriously, that’s a sad sad offense. We need to sign one and a half above average bats to be on the low end of decent.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 14, 2009 4:10 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe I'm underestimating Guti's and Lopez's projection but

Ichiro
Figgins
Lopez
Griffey?
Gutierrez
Carp?
Saunders
Johnson/Moore
Wilson

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 14, 2009 4:15 PM PST up reply actions  

I wouldn't count on Griffey

being a regular part of the line up. He should be just a bench player/designed tickler.

by Fear on Dec 14, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe that's already decent territory

but I’d like to see at least a LaRoche type bat added at 1B and someone with knees for DH before I call it decent. Holliday and or Johnson make me a happy camper.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 14, 2009 4:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh yes yes, of course. I was thinking run scoring only.

No as it is we’re an average team. Maybe a tad better (as it is assumes Lee). Adding one bat makes us good. Adding one bat plus Holliday makes us an unequivocal division favorite, I think.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 14, 2009 4:21 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree

That your lineup is bad, but if you watched many Rangers games last year our lineup wasn’t much better. Okay, maybe it was, but hardly a lineup that was consistent. What was the stretch in September….like 4 games with 1 run scored?

by Drew062682 on Dec 14, 2009 4:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, it was horrendous last year

I think Luke French has a lot of potential. TORP potential.-Dstar

by sprite on Dec 14, 2009 4:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Assuming the M's resign Lee at the end of the season

what’s the highest amount that you could look that they resigned him for without dry heaving?

I say 5 years/$70MM.

by craig3410 on Dec 14, 2009 4:08 PM PST reply actions  

There's not contract he signs that is good

Lackey just got 5/85. Lee’s going to ask for something like 5/120

by arbeck77 on Dec 14, 2009 4:09 PM PST up reply actions  

And he'd be laughed out the office

because that’s a million more than the AAV of Sabathia’s deal, and while Lee’s good, he ain’t Sabathia, the Seattle ain’t the Yankees, and neither of Boston or New York needs a starter next year.

by craig3410 on Dec 14, 2009 4:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Lee was wanting 23M per from Philly....

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Dec 14, 2009 5:24 PM PST up reply actions  

So, if I'm getting this correctly...

We (may) lose Aumont + 2, but would be getting back, at worst case, a first rounder and sandwich pick as compensation for his being a type A. That’s not mentioning if GMZ decides to flip him at the deadline. I don’t see this being us giving up too much at all considering what we’ll get back later and LEE!

by Brian Floyd on Dec 14, 2009 4:39 PM PST reply actions  

"at worst case . . ."

Actually, we’re not guaranteed a first-round pick as compensation, since the first 15 picks in the draft are protected. Also, a team could sign more than one Type A free agent, as the Yankees did last offseason. The Blue Jays had to settle for the Yankees’ third-round pick as compensation for losing A.J. Burnett, because the Yankees had to give their first two picks to the previous employers of Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia.

by Teej on Dec 14, 2009 5:22 PM PST up reply actions  

Aumont + Saunders/Morrow + Gillies?

I’m cool with that for Rent-A-Lee (Type A).

If Saunders is gone… figure the M’s plan to stretch the pocketbook for Branyan-or-Johnson and one of Bay/Holliday. They theoretically have $17-19MM left to spend after extending Felix and giving raises… some backloading and some reaching deep in a bad-economy-means-decent-longterm-deals offseason might just yield contracts we’ll still be happy with in 3-4 years.

Visiting Mariners' fan

by KingCorran on Dec 14, 2009 5:21 PM PST reply actions  

Is anyone on here a doctor?

Because my Zduriection has lasted more than four hours.

by I Lick Squirrels on Dec 14, 2009 6:32 PM PST reply actions  

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