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Non-Tendered Free-Agency: Let's Go Dumpster Diving



So tomorrow, at 9 am PDT, dozens of players will find themselves without a team and hit the free-agency market, as they will not be tendered a contract.  This group of players offers an excellent opportunity for GMs with good talent evaluation (like, say, oh, I dunno....Jack Zduriencik) to find some diamonds in the rough to fill out some roster spots and be valuable additions.  I am sure MLBTR will run a constantly-updating list, but for now, they've highlighted some candidates here.  Here are some initial takes I have on the list, who might be of interest to the M's:

RHP Taylor Bucholz (COL): Looks like he could be a perfectly serviceable reliever, perhaps as some insurance in case White's injury is really bad and that rule 5 pick (Texiera) doesn't work out. EDIT: Apparently he had TJ surgery and can't pitch til after the ASB, so maybe not so much with this one.  He posted a 7.6 k/9 / 2.44 bb/9 line, with an xFIP of 3.93 and a WHIP of 0.95 (!) in 63 innings of work in Colorado.

C John Buck (KC): Could be a cheap backup-backup catcher to enter into spring training with.  Doesn't have any patience at the plate (career OBP ~.300), but he does have some "pop", slugging .484 last year.  However, his arm is a bit iffy, throwing out only 16% of base-stealers last year.

RHP DJ Carrasco (CWS): Another RHP, Carrasco won't be tendered thanks to the recent signing of J.J. Putz.  He had a bit of a down year in 2009, but still posted a 4.26 xFIP despite an unsually-high BABIP.

1B Conor Jackson (AZ): A cheap 1B in the mould of Adam LaRoche, Jackson provides an average bat (~.360 OBP/~.440 SLG in his healthy years) with an average glove for cheap.  The reason he is available is because he came down with Valley Fever last year, rendering him sluggish and fatigued.  He is currently hitting .415 in the Dominican League with 2 homers.  If the M's use their money on other positions, Jackson could be a good, cheap stopgap at first.

C Dioner Navarro (TB): Like Buck, Navarro could be a servicable backup catcher with potential upside.  After an average 2008 campaign (.349/.407) , Navarro plummeted back to earth in 09 (.261/.322).  Odds are Navarro's true talent lies somewhere between these lines.  Unlike Buck, Navarro has a decent arm, throwing out 30% of stealers in his career.

RHP Chien-Ming Wang (NYY): Getting non-tendered after being injured and homer-happy in 2009, Wang would be the ultimate low-risk, high-upside signing.  Wang relies heavily on ground-balls, and thus could really benefit from playing in Seattle with the Mariners defense behind him.

Anyways, these were just some names that jumped out at me.  Howsabout you?

0 recs  |  Comment 85 comments

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Have these guys been non-tendered?

Or are they still just candidates.

I’d add Kelly Johnson to the list. Wrist injuries hurt his production last year, but he was a pretty good LH bat in 2008 and 2007. UZR liked him a lot better last year than in the past, but a larger sample suggests he’s not great at 2B.

by tait644 on Dec 11, 2009 2:08 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Just candidates.

Not known for sure until 9am tomorrow

by ManifestDestiny on Dec 11, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

1B Conor Jackson

GOD.

Fuck it. If it happens, GO JACK GO!

FUCK THE DBACKS!

by Goose on Dec 11, 2009 2:09 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Not sure...

that Jackson’s a candidate to sign for “peanuts.” He was a 3.5-WAR guy his last healthy season. No way he gets paid like a $3.5 WAR guy, but I don’t see him signing for 2009 Russell Branyan money, either.

by slamcactus on Dec 11, 2009 2:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah...

Arizona would have to really like Brandon Allen to let Jackson walk. I don’t know what players generally get in arbitration after they miss an entire season, but I can’t imagine he’s in line for too much of a raise from the $3million he made last year. If he’s even moderately healthy he’ll earn his $3-4 million paycheck. Call me crazy, but I still see some upside there, too. Not crazy upside, but ~.870 OPS upside, with added value in that more of it will come from OBP than SLG.

One thing that nobody really talks about with guys like Conor Jackson is that they tend to be undervalued in the arbitration process. The guys here, at USSM, and Fangraphs talk a lot about the value of acquiring club-controlled years, but lost in that discussion is the fact that club control starts to look a lot less sexy when guys like Ryan Howard start getting $10 million awards in their first arbitration years. Howard was worth 4.3 WAR the year before he scored $10 million in arbitration. Jackson was worth 3.5 WAR, and only netted $3 million through arbitration.

Obviously having guys with 50HR power under club control is awesome, but the solid but not spectacular guys are the undervalued gift that keeps on giving. Until arbitration awards get linked to WAR, my favorite pickups are going to continue to be the great producers under club control who don’t put up sexy HR/RBI numbers. Guys like Franklin Gutierrez, Denard Span, and David DeJesus are the undervalued gifts that keep on giving, all the way through their 6th year of club control. If Conor Jackson can get back to 2008 levels, he falls in this group as well.

A bit of a rant, but I think it’s worth noting that home run power isn’t only overvalued on the open market. It’s overvalued in players in their 4th-6th years of service time, too.

by slamcactus on Dec 11, 2009 3:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Late redemption onf the Colbrunn signing!

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Dec 11, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah, I totally forgot that Jackson was the draft pick AZ got for the Colbrunn signing.

Also, it’s more like LF/ kinda1B Conor Jackson these days.

FUCK THE DBACKS!

by Goose on Dec 11, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh man, I'd love to have Conor Jackson.

I will smash your face into a jelly.

by Phildopip on Dec 11, 2009 2:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

For reference:

tRA+ 2009:

Taylor Buchholz: 120
DJ Carrasco: 129
Wang: 75 in 2009, but 100+ every other year of his career.

wOBA:

John Buck: .332 in 2009, .299 James Projection
Conor Jackson .251 in 2009, .354 James Projection
Dioner Navarro .258 in 2009, .300 James Projection

I don’t see any reason to care about Carrasco, or Buchholz really though I’m sure he’d be fine for a few pennies. Wang would be interesting if he could be had for nothing, which I doubt, because I expect some team to overpay him. I would like Conor Jackson though.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 11, 2009 2:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Jack Cust's name has gotten mentioned a lot as a non-tender candidate

But you’d think that Oakland would be trying to trade him first, and I haven’t seen his name mentioned in trade runors. Maybe they’re going to keep him

by nathaniel dawson on Dec 11, 2009 2:39 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Ryan Church would be a nice player to pick up

Not sure which you’d rather have between him and Langerhaus.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 11, 2009 6:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Langerhaus?

Like a native american dwelling, but longer?

by chrisisasavage on Dec 12, 2009 12:14 PM PST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Chien Ming-Wang seems like the anti-Loafie

The kind of guy whom the Mariners might want to overvalue a bit because his skill set is so, so made for the way the team is set up.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 11, 2009 10:59 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

What about Garrett Atkins?

Blow it up! BLOW IT SKY HIGH!

by tkballer22 on Dec 12, 2009 11:39 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I was thinking more from a roster standpoint.

Who goes away, and how much is it gonna cost to get him anyway?

by BrettJMiller on Dec 12, 2009 11:48 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Replacing Lopez with Johnson is probably at least a lateral move at 2B for 2010

Johnson is likely a worse defender but he’s a much better hitter and a better fit for Safeco.

Which makes whatever you get for Lopez pure profit (well, minus Johnson’s salary).

I really, really hope this happens.

by OlSalty on Dec 12, 2009 12:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

GOGOGOGOGOGO GET HIM NOW

Then make Graham’s Scott Baker proposal happen.

by Jeff Nye on Dec 12, 2009 12:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's ok. You were excited.

Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Dec 13, 2009 2:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This is how I look at it. Johnson offers a comparable player to Lopez who happens to be a better fit for the team.

Thus allowing Lopez to be spun to some other team for more of what the M’s need/Zduriencik wants.

by jimmylauderdale on Dec 12, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Why wouldn't he?

Lefty who can play 2B or LF (though probably not great defense) and probably hit better than Lopez, and undervalued due to a .249 babip last year which is wayyy below his career numbers.

by OlSalty on Dec 12, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He actually played great defense in the 79 games he played in LF.

UZR of 10.3. Small sample size, sure, and it was four years ago, but it wouldn’t hurt to trot him out there every few games.

A Mariners fan in Seattle

by Coach Owens on Dec 12, 2009 12:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Woo Hoo!

So Jack can now grab both a Wang and a Johnson!

DO IT JACK!

SHOW FiFi THE MONEY!!!!

by PositivePaul on Dec 12, 2009 12:09 PM PST reply actions   3 recs

I don't see why everyone is so enamored of Wang.

His numbers are pretty unimpressive outside of his ability to generate GB.

by abender20 on Dec 12, 2009 12:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Per Rosenthal on Twitter
Marlins will non-tender Amezaga. Undecided on Paulino. Tendering everyone else, including Uggla (if he is not traded).

SHOW FiFi THE MONEY!!!!

by PositivePaul on Dec 12, 2009 12:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Ronny Paulino wouldn't be a bad pickup

~.334 wOBA and 30% success rate vs. stealers

by ManifestDestiny on Dec 12, 2009 12:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Jonny Gomes just got non-tendered.

He’s a righty power bat, so I doubt we’d have interest in him, but he seems like a pretty solid player to just non-tender.

by BrettJMiller on Dec 12, 2009 2:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Here, let me FG that for you.

Career .344 wOBA, career .330 OBP, terrible defender. He isn’t enough of a hitter to really DH and he shouldn’t be in the outfield at all. If you’re looking for someone to coldcock Coco Crisp, he’s your man.

by abender20 on Dec 12, 2009 2:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He can't play defense and they're an NL team

He’s might be an ok DH option for someone (else) in the AL but that’s about it

by OlSalty on Dec 12, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Eh, two seasons ago he was 1.2 wins below replacement

He’s only had two seasons where he hit well juxtaposed with a lot of being bad in between, other teams probably didn’t want to take the risk.

by OlSalty on Dec 12, 2009 2:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be all about giving him like $2-3M plus incentives

but I’m guessing his market price will be higher. His entire game screams “old player skills”.

by Johnny Slick on Dec 12, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not interested.

A year ago? Sure. This year I’d want the Mariners to spend that money on more of a sure thing (ahem, not that Johnson or Branyan is a sure thing, but they’re certainly more of one than Cust).

by katal on Dec 12, 2009 4:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I was surprised to find out that Cust is only 30 years old

Watching him play I could’ve sworn he was like 37.

by OlSalty on Dec 12, 2009 4:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd have Branyan/or Johnson. And then maybe Hideki Matsui after that.

Cust may be a decent Plan C or D though.

FUCK THE DBACKS!

by Goose on Dec 12, 2009 5:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh well.

He could still get an NRI though, right? Right?

by Johnny Slick on Dec 12, 2009 6:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So just to figure out what we can pick up

I think its useful to just go through what we have right now:

Hitters
C: Moore
1B: Carp or FREE AGENT
2B: Lopez
3B: Figgins
SS: Wilson
LF: Saunders
CF: Gutierrez
RF: Ichiro
DH: FREE AGENT

Bench
IF: Hannahan
OF: Hall
PH: Griffey
C: Johnson

Starters:
#1: Felix
#2: FREE AGENT
#3: Rowland-Smith
#4: Snell
#5: Morrow

Bullpen:
CL: Aardsma
Lowe
Kelley
White
Silva
French
Vargas

Maybe we pick up a guy like Cust to DH but I would suspect we’d rather sign a guy like Delgado for a couple million more. I bet the only non-tendered free agents we get will probably be relief pitchers to make the bullpen a little more dangerous looking. Other than that, there just isn’t enough room on the team to stash anybody interesting.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 13, 2009 2:10 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'm starting to think DH is not a regular position on this team.

Maybe Mariners fans are biased towards wanting a dedicated DH by having Martinez around.

by Kermit. on Dec 13, 2009 9:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Do you mean we shouldn't get someone to prodominately be a DH?

I don’t think a full time DH is needed as long as you have guys who are offensive powerhouses in your lineup that can rotate through the DH spot. Sadly our lineup has no players like this since all their value is tied up in their defense. Therefore we should probably spend a few million to get some guy who can hit.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 13, 2009 3:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's what I was thinking as well.

Of the guys on the team right now, only Ichiro and Figgins project to be significantly above average with the stick. Then you’ve got a handful of guys who project to right around average… Lopez, Gutz, Carp, Saunders, Tui, Junior. Of those 7 guys who have a chance to be average-to-above-average hitters, 3 are (as much as I hate the term) unproven prospects, 3 derive huge amounts of their value from their fielding, and the other two are… Junior and Lopez.

Teams with good hitters that can’t field would be fine running an Undesignated Designated Hitter merry-go-round. New York can get away with it. Boston, Philadelphia, sure. This team? Not so much. We’d essentially be punting the DH spot and resigning ourselves to replacement level value from the spot.

by Terminator X on Dec 13, 2009 5:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Some GM's give up too much defense to get a bat in the lineup. I didn't mean the M's shouldn't have one.

I’m just starting to think the cost for an all bat, no defense guy is going to make this a no-go. Basically I’m not going to be surprised if the M’s don’t have a dedicated DH on opening day, that’s all.

No big deal really, just situations like this remind me how rare a guy like Martinez was, ever since he’s been gone I’ve always had that flash of thought, “why don’t they get a Martinez type in there?” Then I smack myself.

by Kermit. on Dec 13, 2009 6:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Garko as a last resort?

Not a lefty, but he’d cost nothing and be at least moderately above average with the bat. It could free up money for Holliday or something, while being an adequate stop gap. Not sure if he’s worth it.

Also, wRC+ is about to be my new favorite stat.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Dec 13, 2009 5:10 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I thought that initially as well

But I think I’d probably rather go with Carp than Garko. I’d also be surprised if Holliday ended up here, but that’s really besides the point.

by Terminator X on Dec 13, 2009 5:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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