J.J. Hardy to the Twins
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 9:09 AM PST
in Miscellaneous
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PrintCarlos Gomez is the return. More later.
[Source]
Later: Hardy is a guy that we'd all been hoping that the Mariners would make a play on this offseason to address the shortstop position, so it's a bit of a shame that he's been taken off the table so early and for what appears to be a fairly low price - one we doubtless could have paid. Gomez is a slightly below average centrefielder for league minimum, and the Brewers had top prospect Alcides Escobar waiting in the wings and a hole in CF with the departure of Mike Cameron, but I have a hard time thinking we couldn't have beaten that price.
In terms of money/talent, the deal makes a good amount of sense for both sides. The Twins get a big upgrade at shortstop, the Brewers deal from depth to cover a weak position (albeit not that well) for free, and have some more money to play with in free agency. As the return for a guy like Hardy, Gomez the talent is rather underwhelming, but the financial flexibility he provides is useful. Could/should the Brewers have gotten more for him? Yes. But they didn't, which is where this deal becomes weird from the Milwaukee side. They had an asset which had less value to them than to the rest of the league, but they sold him for his value to them rather than anyone else's, which is not the best trading strategy in the world.
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This sucks :(
Now we have to overpay an all-glove, no bat SS
It seems teams have jumped early on the trade wagon
Does this mean teams are going to back off the FA market? Maybe the M’s will be able to find some bargains.
by Fan since Rupert Jones on Nov 6, 2009 9:18 AM PST reply actions
Truinfel's not likely to end up at short, is he?
http://sodomojo.com/
by .Taylor on Nov 6, 2009 9:18 AM PST reply actions
Trusting Z...
…it’s possible Zduriencik didn’t want Hardy for whatever reason.
SHOW FiFi THE MONEY!!!!
It's possible that there just wasn't a trade that could be worked out between the teams
It looks like the Brewers were willing to get less talent, but in CF form than they wanted in pitching from us.
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 9:21 AM PST up reply actions
Exactly...
Not that he didn’t WANT Hardy per se, but the whole “not wanting him at ‘x’ price” thing comes into play certainly…
SHOW FiFi THE MONEY!!!!
Sure. I didn't really want him at the prices I was hearing.
Now if I had a spare Carlos Gomez and the Brewers were willing to bite, it’s a different story.
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 9:23 AM PST up reply actions
But it seems like there should have been a middle ground we could reach
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 9:25 AM PST up reply actions
I'm trying to figure out what that would be (Carrera + Lowe +?)
but what’s done is done, so I guess it doesn’t matter.
Also, just as aside, people talk about Hardy as a former one of the “best young players in baseball” or whatever…. look how far Gomez has fallen. 2.3 WAR player to part-timer to “Well, if Span is ever eaten by wolves…” to trade bait.
And it looks like Gomez was a bit unlucky last year; he might bounce back into the .290-.295 wOBA range, which, now that I look at it, is still deeply shitty.
In terms of talent going back and forth the deal is fine for the Brewers
In terms of what talent they should have been able to get for a guy like Hardy it’s really odd. Seems like they didn’t make the most of their opportunity.
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 9:42 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed.
I still just don’t quite know what sort of a ‘middle ground’ the M’s could’ve managed, assuming Morrow is not ‘middle ground.’ Saunders+?
I guess Milwaukee really doesn’t see Lorenzo Cain as a CF.
Carlos Gomez was the prize prospect in the Johan Santana trade.
When you are given a label in baseball, it tends to linger throughout your career.
This is just setting the stage
For a Brandon Morrow+ for Mat Gamel acquisition and shifting Tui over to short….
right? Please?
Gamel at 3B and Tui at SS would pretty much be the worst IF in MLB, and I don't care who's at 2b/1b.
Of course, I forgot. You can punt D to an extent when your 2B gets 20-25 WAR per year.
by marc w on Nov 6, 2009 9:45 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Yup
when he’s a +80 2B and hits 65-85 HR/year and only makes $3M, it’s not too hard to win a lot of ballgames
Unless Jack Zduriencik's brain is kidnapped by a hoard of Korean midgets, Tui will never play shortstop in a M's uniform.
http://sodomojo.com/
by .Taylor on Nov 6, 2009 9:40 AM PST up reply actions
Why would Korean midgets want Tui playing at shortstop?
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 9:41 AM PST up reply actions
That's on account of Yuni-condiitoning
you’re more accustomed to bad defense at short
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 6, 2009 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
I enjoy how, unlike certain teenage posters, Taylor H has developed from prospect to a pretty amusing poster.
by katal on Nov 6, 2009 10:27 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I have a back of the rotation ceiling
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
He's supposed to be a phenomenal defender
A phenomenal defender who’d be a middle-round pick at SoftbaLL
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 6, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions
I looked before it crashed.
High UZR marks for Gomez. With the sample size being only a little over a year, Gomez was around +10 at center field, if I’m remembering right.
StatCorner shows that even in a year in which he struggled, Hardy posted a 0.1 hWAR to Gomez's -0.7.
Both players also being great defenders (oh how I wish I could get to FanGraphs for more specific UZR data), it seems like a fair trade once contracts are factored in.
Huh.
I sort of had the idea that guys like Gomez were all over the league as fourth outfielders. I mean, does Gomez have anything over Endy Chavez other than two ACLs?
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 6, 2009 10:16 AM PST reply actions
And is cost controlled.
And is younger
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 10:18 AM PST up reply actions
That said
I would much rather have Hardy + freely-available 4th OF than Gomez.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 6, 2009 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
It's really Gomez and Escobar though
You can’t get around that from the Brewer’s perspective. It’s just that they didn’t leverage Hardy nearly as well as they should have.
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
Sort of what I'm driving at
although there could well be something I don’t know about Hardy’s game, ie some kind of nagging wrist injury thats responsible for the BA decline
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 6, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
I mean, it's what?
A 1 WAR downgrade at short with a 1 WAR upgrade at CF, saving several million dollars in the process? That all balances for Milwaukee.
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 10:24 AM PST up reply actions
Okey
but it’s not about breaking even, right? its about getting the most for your buck.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 6, 2009 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
Okay, given a choice of Gomez or Chavez I might go Gomez given these considerations
but a choice of Chavez plus Hardy v Gomez? I mean, maybe Chavez wasn’t a
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 6, 2009 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
Well Jeff beat me to it
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 6, 2009 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
Two fun comparisons
Mine: Carlos Gomez isn’t a substantially better return for two years of Hardy than we got for two months of Jarrod Washburn
Dave’s: Gomez is basically Tony Gwynn Jr., who Milwaukee traded for Jody Gerut
I refuse to be happy or sad until I hear about the size
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 6, 2009 10:40 AM PST up reply actions
I am neither happy or sad but it is not arghworthy
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
Pirates didn't even want booty for him
they just wanted to Adcock
by seattlebruin on Nov 6, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah. I'll be disappointed if it's market price for a guy who's value is entirely tied up in an ability that is supposed to be undervalued,
and really should be declining given his age. If he’s cheaper, woohoo.
It is a beautiful thing that Jack Wilson was the backup plan. I love you, Jack Z.
http://sodomojo.com/
by .Taylor on Nov 6, 2009 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
No news on the extension front
And now here’s Jeff with the weather
by Dewey N on Nov 7, 2009 12:40 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
THERE'S GOING TO BE PRECIPITATION IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
...and now I'm here
So maybe we should start calling about Reid Brignac?
I can accept Wilson, but I’d really rather not have to.
If I were the Rays I'd be trying to trade Bartlett over Brignac
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 10:42 AM PST up reply actions
He's talking about the Braun trade rumours way to take his comment and go completely the wrong way with it
by Graham MacAree on Nov 6, 2009 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
Ryan Braun rumors? You must be seeing things.
I guess it’s the narrow eyes.
Same. xxx
I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.
by EnglishMariner on Nov 6, 2009 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
It's written in the Old Testament.
Ye shall move to Florida when ye attaineth 65 years of age.
http://sodomojo.com/
by .Taylor on Nov 8, 2009 4:35 PM PST up reply actions
Well, crap.
Does this mean we pick up Wilson’s option? Or that that was the front offices plan all along considering they didn’t match this offer?
Looking at the how-to-succeed-as-an-aggressive-hitter points from the Lopez post
(1) Gomez has a below-average contact rate
(2) Gomez does run well
(3) Gomez does not really put the ball on the ground
(4) Gomez doesn’t have any power
Carlos Gomez is fucked.
What are you talking about?
Batted .393/.614/.464 for 2009 Diablos, #5 in OBP for PSSBL Rocky Division.
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Nov 6, 2009 12:08 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
I don't think that Gomez is necessarily fucked
He stands a good chance at being a bad hitter, but if you look at what Torii Hunter was doing at the same age, you might have predicted that Hunter would be fucked. Something like .260/.310/.410 isn’t really out of the question (it’s also not out of line with his minor league performance) and isn’t all that different from what J.J. Hardy has done. Obviously more of a risk since Hardy has already shown he can do it, but he is also under team control for longer and takes up less payroll.
I would assume that the Brewers think that if they instruct Gomez to stop bunting so much, when given a chance to swing away 4 times a day, he might actually improve. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gomez has more power than Delmon Young when everything is said and done, though that is a pretty low bar in and of itself.
Getting traded from Minnesota to Milwaukee, and vice versa, is kind of hilarious
Hopefully Gomez and Hardy didn’t have high hopes for going someplace warm.
by Manzanillos Cup on Nov 6, 2009 12:23 PM PST reply actions
Jack Z
Drafted Hardy, and like me, probably felt that he greatly outperformed what his abilities were offensively in 07 and 08. Add to it that the ankle injury he had in 2005 or 06 (cant remember) greatly reduced his value as a SS. His range is awful, but his glove is solid and he has a plus arm.
My guess is that he didnt want to part with a guy like Morrow, who has a good upside still, for a guy who may not be as bad as he was this year, but will never be as good as he was in 07-08. He probably felt it was a wash to take on Wilson’s 2 WAR vs Hardy’s.
If you think that UZR is something that tells you that Hardy is some sort of elite SS, it also states that Wilson is above average. Hardy’s D #’s are greatly inflated because of defensive positioning, being at the right place at the right time (a lot), not because he has inflated ability.
The M’s would be better off trying to go out and sign Mat Holliday and get WAR that way and sticking with Wilson, or even signing Hideke Matsui as a DH, than having gone after Hardy. There’s a couple of reason’s he is not now a Mariner: Jack Z knows what he was dealing with, and Doug Melvin greatly overestimated Hardy’s worth.
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