11/23: Weekly? Rumor Open Thread
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 23, 2009 9:45 AM PST
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PrintToday we get this from ESPN Insider:
Remember the frenzy surrounding proposed deals that would send Edwin Jackson and/or outfielder Curtis Granderson from Detroit to Seattle? The momentum appears to have slowed significantly. One person familiar with the talks told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that it's "pretty doubtful" the teams have enough common ground to make a trade.
Seattle has legitimate interest in Jackson, but isn't willing to part with the haul of young talent that Detroit GM David Dombrowski wants in return. The consensus is that Dombrowski is trying to "sell high" on Jackson after his 2009 All-Star season.
Surprise! Detroit thinks Edwin Jackson is really good. Seattle knows he isn't. A wonder the two sides can't agree on a package.
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But.... but ERA...
Is that not a tell all stat??
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo, Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
Alright, I am getting tired of this misconception
Edwin Jackson was a 2.8 WAR player using tRA and 3.5 using FIP. He is one of the fastest throwers starting in baseball and he has a great slider. Edwin Jackson is a good pitcher, he also might be a great pitcher at some point considering that he is still 26. The concern is that he had a rough second half and that his improvement won’t carry over.
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
Edwin Jackson is an above-average pitcher based on one season
It’s really not recommended to evaluate anybody by one season.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 27, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions
Edwin Jackson is a good pitcher if you paid attention for half a season and don't know how to look up the rest of his career numbers
by Graham MacAree on Nov 27, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions
We had this conversation last year
And the only thing that has changed so far is that Edwin Jackson has taken a step forward from where he was last year. I still feel that Edwin Jackson is on the edge of a breakout. And at the very least, Jackson clearly made some improvements this year.
If you were determined to throw out the first half of his season as a pure fluke, his second half BB% of 8.6% it is still better then what he did in 2008. His second have strikeout % is also 2.1% higher then it was in 2008. Jackson’s second half performance looks worse then it was because of a slightly high BABIP and a HR/FB% jump to 10.4%*. They aren’t giant steps but they definitely moves in the right direction. Those steps begin to look bigger the more weight you give to his first have of the season where his walks were lower and his strikeouts were higher.
*I don’t know where to find FB splits and I didn’t feel like going through gamelogs so I just used his year long FB% 42.5% and applied it to BIP+HR multiplyed by FB% = FB and HR/FB
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
Why would you give more weight to a particular sample than any other similarly sized sample?
And yeah, he’s improving, but he’s also 26. He’s supposed to be improving.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Edwin Jackson became a good pitcher, but I would be equally not-surprised if he went right back to sucking ass. The important thing is that there isn’t nearly enough of a reason to believe the reward outweighs the risk to a great enough extent to justify paying what the Tigers are likely to be asking in exchange.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 27, 2009 7:19 PM PST up reply actions
You misread that
I said if you wanted to give ZERO weight to his first half, he still improved. If you wanted to give more then zero weight, then the better he looks
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
And I also apologize...
for not reading the full extent of your post before commenting on the whole thing. I agree that Jackson is still a unknown commodity, but we also don’t know as outsiders how the Tigers are valuing Jackson either. I think there are enough reasons to lean toward the reward side then the risk side for the next two years and beyond. But if Detroit is valuing him as all reward and no risk, then absolutely he is not worth that evaluation. But, as most of us consider Dave Dombrowski as a low-tech GM, he still would have noticed the clear difference between Jackson’s first half performance and the second half. If he isn’t then yes, fuck Dombrowski; but if he is leaving room for surplus value which should exist, it comes down to M’s value v. Tigers value, and I feel that Jackson is undervalued from a mainstream blogsphere evaluation
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
As much as I would like to see Saunders excel in LF, I wouldn't mind if GMZ went after Granderson.
Great contract, great defense, and great offensive production. But it looks like pitching and offense at 3B, 1B, and DH are the higher priorities.
"Great" offensive production?
Yeah, as long as the pitcher is right handed. I realize that he still gets quite a bit of value because of defense and the offense he has, but good lord that guy can’t hit a lefty for shit.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 23, 2009 2:48 PM PST up reply actions
We do?
He’s had a full season’s worth of plate appearances to show us he can’t hit lefties for shit. How much regression to you expect from a same handed stat line?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 23, 2009 9:47 PM PST up reply actions
Quite a bit, because a full season of PAs against lefties is 200 PAs
Which is like… April and some of May. His career line against lefties is not very good, but imagine that we already use 3 years of data to try to create projections, and his career line against lefties is essentially one full season of data – not even close to the 3 years we use to project. That’s not to say there is any evidence that he can hit lefties, just that 600 plate appearances is barely enough to assume anything substantial about a player, and that number includes his rookie seasons, while not accounting for park factors and other possible issues.
...and now I'm here
I think you're overthinking things.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 24, 2009 1:31 AM PST up reply actions
I think I'm giving you an accurate answer.
...and now I'm here
He's not
Granderson only has 685 career PAs against lefties, which means you have to regress his splits pretty hard towards the mean.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 24, 2009 9:58 AM PST up reply actions
Granderson
is a .210/.270/.344 hitter against lefties in those 648 PA. You can regress that as hard as you want and you would still come to the conclusion that “good lord that guy can’t hit a lefty for shit”
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
Curtis Granderson is a below-average hitter against lefties based on essentially one season
It’s really not recommended to evaluate anybody by one season.
...and now I'm here
We can say he probably isn't very good
but he’s not .270 OBP bad.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 27, 2009 3:15 PM PST up reply actions
Actually if you regressed it completely you'd come to the conclusion that he's league average against LHPs
You are making some really stupid comments
by Graham MacAree on Nov 27, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions
You can read this like Jeff did
And read this as “you can regress this as aggressively as you want within reason” and ignore the hyperbole as standard exaggeration, or you can do it the way you chose to. You strike me as being in a bad mood.
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
The fact remains that you cannot come to the conclusion you seem to think is the only logical one based on the sample size in question.
You can make an educated guess, but if you regress his line properly it’s likely that he’s not completely hopeless against lefties. He’s not good, but his defensive value probably counteracts that to a great extent. The problem here is that your logic is inherently flawed.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 27, 2009 7:24 PM PST up reply actions
Fine, I have come to a conclusion
And no, I have not done a regression analysis to confirm that conclusion. I also doubt you have looked at his minor league splits to see if they confirmed or denied his major league deficiencies ( they support that he sucks against lefties, but again it is small sample size added upon small sample size.) But between seeing a small but not inconclusive sample size on top of visual confirmation and the fact that his stats against lefties are not getting better (Granderson hit .183/.245/.239 against lefties this year) we can at the very least make a prima facie case that Granderson “can’t hit a lefty for shit.”
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
No we can't
You can’t just say we can come to that conclusion without regressing. You may very well be right in the long run but the fact of the matter is we don’t really know just how bad he is against lefties with definitive evidence and you are coming to far too strong a conclusion as is warranted by the evidence available. First appearances are often wrong.
You come to your own conclusion
I can indeed come to my own conclusion without regressing. I have studied statistics enough to believe that Granderson’s numbers are statistically significant by eye-balling them. More importantly, I know that it has been far too long since I studied statistics to think that I could run a real regression analysis accurately. Last time I dealt with that field recently I had a hard time calculating RMSE correctly. If someone wants to post a documented regression analysis on Granderson’s platoon splits I would be happy to look at it. If that shows that Granderson’s splits are not statistically significant I would consider changing my conclusion, it certainly wouldn’t be the first time.
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
I hate accidentally hitting post instead of preview
Imagine I said everything above…
That is the point of prima facie. I feel that I have shown with the current evidence that Curtis Granderson sucks against lefties. The evidence of 685 career PA in addition to 156 MiLB PA. The burden of proof would now shift to those who thinks that Granderson does not suck against lefties to show that he doesn’t. Regression analysis could be used as a way to show that he doesn’t suck against lefties. There might be other ways of showing this too. Now, legal certainty and statistical certainty are two completely different concepts, but, what they both share in common would be that the other side has shown nothing in evidence that there is another side of the argument. Until someone does so, it is not unfair to come to the conclusion that Granderson sucks against lefties. At this time I would like to make it clear that if someone wants to show evidence of Granderson not sucking against lefties I would love to see it so I can factor it my conclusion. I really like Granderson as a media persona and would like to have nicer thoughts about his playing ability.
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
Thinking he sucks against lefties and assuming there is no other reasonable conclusion and/or outcome are two very different things.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 28, 2009 12:32 AM PST up reply actions
But,
Thinking that he sucks against lefties and assuming there is no other reasonable conclusion and/or outcome in light of no other evidence isn’t
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
If I step up to the plate, hit a homerun, then tear my ACL running the bases and never play the sport again
Would it be a reasonable conclusion to come to that, had I not been injured, I would’ve continued hitting homeruns every time I came to the plate because you had absolutely no evidence to the contrary to suggest I wouldn’t have?
No, because A) Nobody has ever come close to being that good of a hitter, so you have no historical context by which to make that assumption, and B) You only saw me hit once, obviously, and any conclusions you draw from that at bat are pretty much worthless given the unpredictable nature of baseball. So you can’t draw any meaningful conclusions from that at bat at all about my ability as a hitter other than I got one ball to leave the park.
It’s the same concept here, you can’t put such inordinate weight on the evidence you have here when there isn’t very much of it and the overwhelming historical evidence doesn’t support the conclusion it would suggest. In more than 3/4 of his at bats he has absolutely mashed the ball so I think you’re going to need quite a bit more to suggest that pitcher handedness is as much of a variable on his performance as the limited data suggests now.
For our purposes we are looking for reliable measurements of how a player will perform in the future
You can’t make those kind of judgements on a prima facie basis. The evidence that exists to this point suggests he is very bad against lefties, yes. However for the reasons stated above you have to weight that evidence properly because your sample size is not very large in the grand scope of things and these type of splits rarely hold out from a historical standpoint.
Which is a good point,
From a historical standpoint platoon splits do tend to be closer to league average then they do for any given individual player. That would be evidence against the conclusion that Granderson sucks against lefties. I do understand that. I am arguing in the face of that saying that Granderson has come to the point that he has passed that and sucks more against lefties then the nromal platoon split.
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
I think you understood
but chose to attack what you felt was the weakest part of the argument; I could be wrong. If I am, I apologize for being unclear.
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
Jack Cust
Adam Rubin of the NY Daily News thinks Seattle is the “most likely destination” for Jack Cust.
Wonder if that’s based on pure speculation or actual grumblings…
Actually he said "may be the most likely", which is like saying I may be America's next top model because I enjoy wearing clothes.
Along with “the Mets are one team believed to have considered his acquisition.” which means he thinks the Mets might have thought about Jack Cust.
This is nothing more than someone filling dead air time.
Any response to the post Jason Churchill did a whole post about dismissing rumor mongering.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 23, 2009 2:50 PM PST up reply actions
Dammit.
“Any response to the post Jason Churchill did about rumor mongering”.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 23, 2009 2:51 PM PST up reply actions
Since we're here: Josh Johnson
Sure we don’t seem to have what it takes to pry him from the Fish, but it also appears he’s going to get traded at some point. Shocking that the Marlins are not going to pay money to keep their talent. SHOCKING. Anyway, I just don’t want him to go to the Sox or Yanks.
Rotoworld:
According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Mets have “called” on free agent first baseman Russell Branyan.
Branyan, who turns 34 in December, posted a batting line of .251/.347/.520, a career-high 31 home runs and 76 RBI in 2009. He’s a nice fit for the Mets, who are seeking a left-handed power hitter and could stick Branyan at first base. That would leave Daniel Murphy in the outfield, unless the Mets decide to upgrade at multiple positions this offseason. For what it’s worth, he rejected a one-year offer from the Mariners two weeks ago.
Ken Griffey Jr. can make up to $3.9 million in 2010 through his incentive-laden one-year deal with the Mariners.
Griffey, 40, will be given a base salary of $2.35 million and can trigger over $1.5 million in incentives if he tops 400 plate appearances. Junior had no problem reaching that goal this past season (454 plate appearances) and hit .214/.324/.411 with 19 dingers and 57 RBI along the way.
"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco
If Griffey gets 400 PA's in 2010 we're in bad shape
My Mariners blog - SodoMojo, Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!
If he gets 400 PA because he is hitting better and has a wOBA of .350+
Then we are in good shape. If its .325 again then yes, we shouldve got a better DH.
However old the ballpark is will not get Griffey to run any faster.
Sorry to bust your bubble.
...and now I'm here
I would asume the mets would try to get Delgado back before they'd go after Branyan.
But perhaps not.
...and now I'm here
They want to screw with us because of the Putz.
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
And teaches me to complete my thought.
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
I thought your post was a mistake.
It still went off rather well. You could’ve gotten away with it if you’d just played it cool.
Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
If they really want a now-healthy Putz they'll re-sign Jarrod Washburn.
Get it? Because he’s a putz? That’s a Yiddish joke! ZING!
...and now I'm here
Depends what Delgado is asking for
If he’s willing to settle for 2 years they’d definitely go for him over Branyan you’d think.
They also have a ton of resources and he's made a name for himself in NY.
So you’d think they’d spend the extra cash to get him because they can. It’s not that I’d be surprised if the Mets go after Branyan, but I don’t see why they would when they can go after Delgado.
...and now I'm here
And Branyan is less of a sure thing
If the Mets suddenly decided they wanted to go for the bargain at the cost of higher risk that would be kind of surprising to me, because that’s really not how they’ve conducted themselves in the past.
He can't hit dingers! He don't bat righty!
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 24, 2009 1:31 AM PST up reply actions
No Jeff was wrong
Griff invented the Dinger!.McGwire did some tinkering on the concept and the media gets lazy when they call them dingers because there is a subtle difference. Sort of like salamanders and lizards.
Churchhill actually has a pretty nice offseason calendar over on his blog
if you want to keep track of all the deadlines and such for the offseason.
by Edgar for Pres on Nov 23, 2009 11:07 PM PST reply actions
I don't want to wait 'til the Winter Meetings for this to get fun.
Stupid baseball offseason. I wish you were more evenly exciting.
Geoff Baker tweets "Still think Jose Lopez is sticking around? Think again"
and then links to a story about Adrian Gonzalez. Ummmm?
by ManifestDestiny on Nov 24, 2009 8:48 AM PST reply actions
I think he accidentally linked the wrong story
Here’s the one he probably meant to link to.
Well that's just wonderful, now my day is ruined
by seattlebruin on Nov 24, 2009 9:36 AM PST up reply actions
Maybe Z will almost trade him then get lazy during the easiest part of the transaction and it will fall through
by Robert on Nov 24, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions 10 recs
Maybe Z won't make the trade because his brother died in a motorcycle accident
by Robert on Nov 24, 2009 10:03 AM PST up reply actions 8 recs
Maybe Z won't make the trade because his sister died of horny fungus disease.
by Robert on Nov 24, 2009 10:04 AM PST up reply actions 8 recs
Maybe Z won't make the trade because his best friend is a retarded monkey playing baseball.
by Robert on Nov 24, 2009 10:05 AM PST up reply actions 10 recs
Maybe Z won't make the trade because he can't get it just far enough along to be a homerun
by Robert on Nov 24, 2009 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 8 recs
Maybe Z won't make the trade because he is a fat stupid lazy Mexican.
by Robert on Nov 24, 2009 10:06 AM PST up reply actions 11 recs
Maybe a killer whale will eat your nuts
by seattlebruin on Nov 24, 2009 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 9 recs
Just because Robert leaves his nuts hanging out doesn't mean an Orca will be inclined to eat them
Little do people know that restrictive underwear are little more than the Birkenau of ballsacks. Perhaps if you examine your own balls you will find that your balls are twisted in ignorance.
by OlSalty on Nov 24, 2009 2:42 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Are you trying to make Lookout Landing more energy efficient?
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on Nov 24, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Is it wrong that the two comments that got the most recs
Involved calling Yuni Betancourt a monkey and a joke about Mexicans?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 24, 2009 3:54 PM PST up reply actions
Dude went to UCLA.
He had 4 years more sun than we got.
...and now I'm here
No, that's why he got into UCLA in the first place.
...and now I'm here
I thought he was a fat stupid Venezuelan
Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.
p.s. fuck you angels
I screenshotted this thread.
In the hopes that it will be properly appreciated in time, and in additional hopes of a killer whale meme.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
Watching my kids feed the fish in the tank will never be the same again.
Flushing the next dead one down the toilet ought to be quite the experience.
How could you keep a small, watery Auschwitz at home?
You monster!
by Jed MC on Nov 24, 2009 2:53 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, why don't you just build a miniature gas chamber...
cut out the middle ground, and put the fish there instead of in a tank?
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Nov 24, 2009 3:31 PM PST up reply actions
Reccing something just to turn it green so tht there is an entire page of green is only going to encourage more people to post in between the green for free recs so let's please not do it thanks.
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on Nov 24, 2009 9:44 PM PST reply actions 5 recs
We can talk about Lindsey Lohan's latest beau
and dish about whether Robert Pattinson and Kristen Stewart ever take their affair off screen.
...and now I'm here
Was it a failure -or- was it better than we ever imagined?
…….
…..Okay yeah a failure
I hate you and find you stupid.
A Mariners fan in Seattle
by Coach Owens on Nov 25, 2009 8:34 AM PST up reply actions 5 recs
You came out of retirement to say that?
Hooray for my 4000th comment!
Don't even get me started on people that study psychology.
Bunch of crazies they are.
...and now I'm here
Coach comments make me smile
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
According to Rotoworld, the Orioles are "Going Hard on Bedard."
This strikes me as funny in probably 4 to 6 different ways.
...and now I'm here
Excuse me, ROYALS are going hard on Bedard. Orioles is less funny.
...and now I'm here
So he's only pursuing a 1 year incentive-laden deal?
Well, I’d take it. Though who knows what you’re getting after labrum kablooey.
So now Larry LaRue is saying that Lopez probably stays put.
Who’s more trustworthy, him or Baker?
by I Lick Squirrels on Nov 25, 2009 2:03 PM PST reply actions
None of the above?
They’re both speculation pieces but I think Baker puts up a better fight.
You got slurved!
LaRue
His article is saying the Mariners want to trade him, but there just isn’t enough interest to justify the return. Lopez doesn’t fit in with the roster, that much is clear, but Zduriencik is smart enough that he won’t deal him unless the value is equal to or greater than Lopez. That doesn’t mean it won’t change, but for now Lopez is untradeable.
Josh Wilson opts for free agency.
...and now I'm here
Hahahaha the photo is of Jack Wilson.
Nobody took pictures of poor Josh?
The Yankees suck-a-doodle-doo!
by JamMasterJesus on Nov 25, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions
(he's the player on the right) =)
...and now I'm here
AKA the backround.
The Yankees suck-a-doodle-doo!
by JamMasterJesus on Nov 25, 2009 4:22 PM PST up reply actions
Where he belongs.
You don’t step in front of Jack.
...and now I'm here
He probably did once and that's what got him shipped to Tacoma.
The Yankees suck-a-doodle-doo!
by JamMasterJesus on Nov 25, 2009 4:25 PM PST up reply actions
Well I guess Hannahan better be good at SS...
by I Lick Squirrels on Nov 25, 2009 4:28 PM PST up reply actions
Josh Wilson wasn't good.
All Hannahan has to be is adequate in the event of an injury to Jack, and I think he’ll be fine. If Jack Wilson gets injured we would have been screwed with or without Josh Wilson.
...and now I'm here
SS is really one of the positions that worries me for the next couple years.
I really wish we stole Hardy from the Brewers instead of the Twins.
by Edgar for Pres on Nov 25, 2009 4:40 PM PST up reply actions
I think the point is he wont get an offer for 4/80
Unless he does.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 26, 2009 9:08 PM PST up reply actions
Here is are a few interesting ones.
Radhames Liz was picked up off Waivers by San Diego. He didn’t do well, so I guess this isn’t a big deal, but still.
Andruw Jones got picked up by the White Sox for only 500K. This has the potential to be spectacular for the Sox, or it may be irrelevant. It’s not bad, though.
...and now I'm here
The White Sox stole one from the Mariners.
If they were at all interested in picking up a high risk/high reward player, Andruw Jones is the poster child for that type. For $500,000, he might have looked good in left field for the M’s.
He signed too early though. If the M’s were looking to add a player or two like that, it wouldn’t be till near the end of the signing period.
by nathaniel dawson on Nov 27, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
Probably a case of Jones deciding to take the money and run ...
… with memories of last year’s free agent deals still reverberating in the heads of players and agents.
Jones and his agent probably figured that if they tried to wait things out they might wind up with nothing but a minimum contract.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 27, 2009 2:26 PM PST up reply actions
The Andruw Jones contract is totally bizarre ...
It’s a $500,000 contract with $1 million in potential incentives.
But he’s still owed $3.2 million from the Dodgers, so every dollar he earns under the contract simply offsets what the Dodgers are paying him. Either way he earns $3.2 million this season.
So what’s the point in offering him anything more than a minimum contract? Why have a performance incentive that doesn’t change anything???
It's probably a hedge
Against Frank McCourt becoming insolvent within the next year
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
I could be wrong about this
But I believe the Dodgers just deferred some of his salary from 2008-2009 and the contract has actually expired. I don’t think that any money he receives this year from the White Sox would reduce the amount owed him by the Dodgers. In other words, one thing doesn’t have any thing to do with the other.
by nathaniel dawson on Nov 27, 2009 2:06 PM PST up reply actions
That's it
Since the Dodgers aren’t paying him for playing services after 2009, any money he earns on MLB contracts after the 2009 season is his to keep.
by Steve Nelson on Nov 27, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions
Andruw Jones makes me wonder if trading Guti might not be that bad of an idea.
by I Lick Squirrels on Nov 27, 2009 9:04 PM PST up reply actions
Based on that fear it's probably a bad idea
In most cases it is hard to speculate on why a player loses range suddenly. In Andruw Jones’ case it is not that hard to speculate. I think we will have some physical warning before Franklin Gutierrez goes the way of the walrus
Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles
Bored bored bored bored bored
I want a major transaction completed NOW! I’m sick of waiting for the winter meetings!
Marco Scutaro? Really?
Any reason to believe his 2009 wasn’t a fluke? I don’t even know that I’d take him over Lopez at 2B.
Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
If it wasn't a fluke?
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
I know, I'm just messing around.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Nov 29, 2009 1:47 PM PST up reply actions
Is he an improvement over Jack Wilson? Maybe its not for 2B.
by Edgar for Pres on Nov 29, 2009 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
We just signed Jack Wilson to an extension.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 29, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
I guess I should have posed it as a question
Who’d you rather have playing SS for the next two years? Jack Wilson or Marco Scuturo.
by Edgar for Pres on Nov 29, 2009 3:20 PM PST up reply actions
I'd take Lopez at $2.3 million over Scutaro at the salary he's probably going to ask for.
by I Lick Squirrels on Nov 29, 2009 3:53 PM PST up reply actions
If the Red Sox really are interested, it's going ot take a whole bunch of money to get him.
by I Lick Squirrels on Nov 29, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
I doubt this was anything more than a "seeing whose available and for what price" inquiry
I would rather look elsewhere personally because he probably will cost more than he’s worth, though.
Felipe Lopez is a switch hitter and could probably put up better production than Scutaro in Safeco
Similar numbers defensively, if anything Lopez’ are better. And he’s type B instead of type A.
MLBTradeRumors would be a more enjoyable source of information if their sources weren't Geoff Baker and Larry Stone's blogs every single time. Any Mariners fan looking for rumors is already going to have read those.
I don’t expect anything else, but every once in a while when I am curious what the latest rumor is, I always end up disappointed, since it’s something I’ve already read.
...and now I'm here
Why does anybody go there?
RSS feeds should make that entire place completely unnecessary. Do they provide any sort of original content?
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 30, 2009 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
They do an Offseason Outlook series
But that appears to be about it. The outdated Mariners one doesn’t really offer anything we don’t already know from reading LL/USSM. Even links to Dave’s rosterbation, without showing the same level of intelligence.
Since I’m cheap and don’t pay to be an ESPN Insider, I occasionally use their Top 50 FA predictions and full FA list as well.
Rooting for lovable losers since 1984.
by seattlecougar on Nov 30, 2009 12:44 PM PST up reply actions
I bookmark the Mariners Rumors page and go directly to that
I know RSS gives all the pertinent information but I can’t stop reading the comments….wow.
Because ideally they would have content from websites I do not check with regularity.
They scour practically every paper in the US, and so if, say, the Pirates had a story about the Mariners looking at someone, they would probably find it, and that would be something I would not find on my RSS feeds. The issue is that they never do, since everything is always reported by Baker or Stone first anyway.
...and now I'm here
Well it looks like the rumored deal for Jackson was for Morrow and Kelly
“Hearing Tigers sought young pitchers Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley for Jackson. Mariners apparently said no.”
yeah or nay guys?
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
Right decision
4 years of Morrow > 2 of Jackson. Throwing in Shawn Kelly isn’t a big deal, but I think it’s pretty much universal opinion that he’s one of our better RP’s going forward.
In fact, I think only GMDM could make such an awful trade.
(sorry to any mentally disabled people I may have offended by comparing you to Dayton Moore).
Morrow for Jackson I wouldn't do unless a third team got involved.
Morrow and Kelley for for Jackson would of been retarded.
"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco
The other idea, per JAC
Was Morrow and Mark Lowe and maybe Matt Tuiasosopo for Jackson, SS prospect Cale Iorg, and Brandon Inge.
I’d probably veto that one as well.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 30, 2009 4:50 PM PST up reply actions
Inge is an asset I think.
Iorg can’t hit for shit, though. He’s like Jack Wilson if Jack Wilson went to AA and still hit like Jack Wilson.
I wouldn’t trade Lowe straight up for Iorg and Inge.
I was thinking 'new rumor thread time'
Except there havent been any rumors.
"There are two teams that would interest me, which are the Dodgers and Boston,’’ Scutaro said.
This is a shame only so far as I planned on doing a series of MS Paint jobs around the Scooty Puff Jr./Sr. theme from Futurama. I guess I’ll have to waste my time doing other stupid things, or god forbid, work.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
Stupid things are generally much more fun than work.
Go with the stupid things.
Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997
So we only have six minutes to offer arbitration to Miguel Batista??
Better get on it, GMZ!
I'll get it, I promise!
I might even chortle if it’s a good joke
by seattlebruin on Dec 1, 2009 10:58 AM PST up reply actions
People do a lot of things to alleviate boredom.
This is among the more extreme.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Dec 1, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
Pedro likes all the things that don't happen and hates everything that does.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Dec 1, 2009 12:02 PM PST up reply actions
I was going after something like that
but it turns out to be just one man’s Mariner fandom.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Dec 2, 2009 7:57 AM PST up reply actions
Kelly Shoppach goes to TB for PTBNL
Navarro will most likely be non-tendered. Good 3rd catcher candidate for next year?
by ManifestDestiny on Dec 1, 2009 11:58 AM PST reply actions
Apparently Boston is considering moving Pedroia to SS.
Would trading Lopez to them be a possibility? The Red Sox are a smart organization so they’re not going to like his OBP, but his power would be a perfect fit at Fenway.
by I Lick Squirrels on Dec 1, 2009 3:28 PM PST reply actions
0 home runs.
75 doubles. I could see him breaking interesting records if he hit at Fenway.
...and now I'm here
If he was a lefty, maybe.
I just see him hitting a bunch of doubles off the Monster.
Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?
Yeah the "declined" part threw me for a second
Reading comprehension failure.
Oh wait, nevermind
He didn’t decline, they didn’t offer him arb.
Well, that was dumb of them. He wasn't going to accept anyway.
Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?
Woo-hoo?
M’s still going after Zaun — 7:25 p.m.
The Mariners are among the teams still pursuing free agent catcher Gregg Zaun, two major league sources said Tuesday.
Zaun finished the season with Tampa Bay, but the Rays’ need for him diminished somewhat with today’s acquisition of Kelly Shoppach from Cleveland. (However, one source said that Tampa Bay is still interested in bringing back Zaun for 2010 and offered him arbitration.)
Seattle may have its catcher of the future in prospect Adam Moore, but the 25-year-old has played in only six major league games.
Rob Johnson is the only other catcher on the Mariners’ 40-man roster, and he’s recovering from multiple surgeries.
Zaun batted .260 with eight home runs and 27 RBIs in 90 games this year with the Orioles and Rays.
I'd certainly prefer him over Rob Johnson.
Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?
That would be spectacular
I’ve always wanted to see Gregg Zaun become a Mariner. If he signs, he’ll immediately become my favorite player.
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
If you have Adam Moore and Rob Johnson I don't really see the point
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 1, 2009 7:21 PM PST up reply actions
We can't expect Moore to play every day
so it’d probably be a good idea to pick up a second catcher.
Fuck Anaheim.
Rob Johnson sucks and Adam Moore is unproven
and both have contract options.
I’d throw all into camp and then there’s four likely scenarios
1) Moore sucks or is otherwise not ready for some reason, and goes down for half a season while Gregg Zaun holds down the fort like he did for Wieters last year for a couple months
2) Johnson sucks, gets sent to AAA
3) Zaun sucks, gets released
4) All three are good, Johnson gets sent to AAA as depth
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
2 and 4 would make Felix sad.
I don’t think the M’s want a sad Felix.
by I Lick Squirrels on Dec 1, 2009 7:33 PM PST up reply actions
Felix hasn't met the awesomeness that is Gregg Zaun yet
He’ll forget all about Rob Johnson
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
I think the pitchers were more anti-Kenji than pro-Johnson
Felix’ll warm to Moore/Zaun when he realises he’s throwing fewer wild pitches.
Fuck Anaheim.
I just don't see the point of bringing in Zaun
but it might be my opinion on the approach the mariners should take next year. I think its worth trying to find out whether Moore and Johnson are MLB quality catchers. We know what Zaun is and its not horrible but I don’t really think its worth paying a couple million.
Zaun might make us a tad better next year but while we are figuring out how Saunders and Tui fit into our future, we might as well do the same for the catching position too.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 1, 2009 8:43 PM PST up reply actions
We're going to need some kind of backup plan if Moore doesn't transition well
Might as well be someone who fits the park and can still hit decently.
I'd argue that we don't need a backup plan if Moore doesn't transition well.
We really need to figure out where we are going this year. If Moore or any other of the young players do poorly we need to get them more playing time, not less. We are at the point where we have some young talent but don’t really know how a lot of it is going to turn out. This is not a team that should be picking up veterans that will take away playing time from the future. If the talent turns out well this year, we can go into the offseason with the goal of adding some players to turn this team into a contender. If the youth doesn’t do as well, we might need to delay our timetable and consider making some drastic changes.
The last thing I want to see is for players like Saunders and Moore only rack up 60 games this year because they get a bad start and old veterans steal all their playing time. If this team was a 88 win team then yeah, I’d want Zaun but we are probably/hopefully more like an 80 win team and I’d rather watch youth and try to figure out our 2011 team than have an 82 win team.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 1, 2009 11:05 PM PST up reply actions
Fixed
Well yeah but we’re not going to give out playing time like a 100 loss team would should coming fresh of an 85 win season
by Steve Nelson on Dec 2, 2009 12:51 AM PST up reply actions
I guess you can be warranted in thinking this if you don't want us to try to compete at all next year
And I didn’t mean to suggest Zaun should take playing time away from Moore….he should take it away from Johnson who has proven himself to really suck at the whole major league thing. But if Moore sucks we need a primary catcher if we want to have a chance at competing this year, because Rob sure doesn’t fill that role. In that case Moore should be placed in the backup catcher role for now, and Rob should be sent down.
I won't really be upset at bringing in Zaun this year
I just think there are better directions to go.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 2, 2009 8:20 AM PST up reply actions
Also, what I'm envisioning is
something like 500 PA Moore vs 150 PA backup which would work out to Moore playing 3 out of every 4 games. I don’t know if I want to pay a backup catcher 2-3 million dollars for 150 PA. The difference of production at that level of playing time between even a guy like Johnson and Zaun is pretty small.
I’d rather use that money to pursue an interesting SP for example.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 2, 2009 8:24 AM PST up reply actions
I'd guess playing time works out to more like 50-50
You’re right-there’s no way they bring in Zaun for 150 PA
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org
Yeah it kinda depends on playing time
50-50 is probably more realistic but I’d really like to see the team try to give guys like Moore a lot of playing time. The only reason I wouldn’t play Moore a ton is if they thought he could use some more time in AAA so he doesn’t get overwhelmed and discouraged if he struggles in the majors.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 2, 2009 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
He better be
Otherwise trading Jeff Clement was probably a bad idea and not trying to get a guy like Shoppach was missed opportunity.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 2, 2009 10:54 AM PST up reply actions
That doesn't answer my question
I’m no prospects expert, but he look old for his leagues and he didn’t exactly set Tacoma on fire. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a run in the mill backup catcher.
He's definitely a regular, and ready to be a starter this year.
I think he’ll be around .310 wOBA with better-than-Johnson defense.
His MLE combined last year would be a touch under Kaz Matsui's .297 wOBA
I think some development is warranted, but… .310 with better defense than Johnson is still sort of optimistic.
(Again, if you think Rob Johnson gave up a lot of passed balls in the minors, check out Moore)
Moore cut his PB by a third this year.
I was the one running around with the “Moore passes too goddamned many balls” flag pretty much ever since he was drafted, but this year I see that he was making progress.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Dec 3, 2009 5:38 PM PST up reply actions
I may be a bit optimistic on his hitting and defense, but I don't think overly so.
I thing having Moore hit against 90% of lefties and 50% of righties with Zaun as backup would be ideal.
Moore gets plenty of PAs without having the pressure of being the full time guy; he also gets Zaun, who is fucking awesome, as his mentor. It’s a win/win.
Johnson actually seemed to get worse.
2006: 74 G, 11 PB
2007: 69 G, 8 PB
2008: 90 G, 21 PB
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Dec 4, 2009 10:49 AM PST up reply actions
Depends on your expectations.
He’s not Vitor Artinez. I don’t think he’s even Yadier Molina. But I think that he could end up being around the level of Kurt Suzuki, maybe a bit worse. ~2.5 WAR player, which isn’t horrible.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Dec 2, 2009 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
Expectations are irrelevant
Kurt Suzuki I would take
(Molina has only been worth about 1.5 wins per season without defense factored in)
Quite, but...
I said that because Moore had a 22 HR season back in 2007, and after that people started thinking that he would do that on a regular basis, and that’s just not going to happen. I can see him hitting 20 HR or more a few years in his career, but it’s not going to be a regular thing out of him.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/
by JY on Dec 2, 2009 11:28 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah thats something like a top 10 catcher
There just aren’t that many of them out there. I would be totally happy if he could give use 3-4 yrs of 2+ WAR.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 2, 2009 12:28 PM PST up reply actions
If I had to hazard a guess I'd say there were about 10 of them.
Fuck Anaheim.
by Eyeball Kid on Dec 2, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 13 recs
3yr at 18 million isn't too outrageous
Fans project him to be worth $12.5 million next year. Thats probably a little optimistic but if you say that Philly is looking at it like they are paying him 10 mil the first year, 6 mil the second year and 2 mil the last year then they have a decent chance of coming out pretty good.
Add in the fact that they just need a little to win the world series next year and I think this move at least doesn’t look too Bavasi-esque.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 3, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions
It's not horrible, but it seems unnecessary.
He’s going to be 34, coming off a down year offensively, and hasn’t played third base in a while. The Phillies will still be a good team, but I think they could have plugged that hole with less of a commitment.
Not to mention the Phillies don’t really need a “prototypical No. 2 hitter,” since the rest of their lineup is just blasting the ball into the stands.
Just seems like a weird fit.
It's strange to commit to a LT deal when there are many better options on the market
Polanco can probably handle third just fine, but he’s not much of a hitter. He’s not really a guy I’d want playing third more than a year
Geoff Baker has a new post saying that M's are making a push for Jason Bay
Why did Dave have to complain about the lack of things to bitch about? :(
Takashi Saito---->Braves
One year, three million
So the Braves spent $10 Million and made the back end of the Red Sox bullpen the back end of their bullpen.
Weird.
"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco
If he sees high leverage situations
and doesn’t collapse because he is old, he could be worth that.
by Edgar for Pres on Dec 3, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions
Well this is a weird trade.
The Chicago Cubs traded Aaron Miles and Jake Fox to the Oakland A’s for right-handed pitcher Jeff Gray and minor-leaguers Ronny Morla and Matt Spencer, according to ESPNChicago.com reporter Bruce Levine.
"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco
Holy crap I wanted Jake Fox on our team.
...and now I'm here
Jon Morosi stresses that the M's are in the lead for Figgins
Damnit, he is not going to help us that much. We need power!
Actually I would love Figgins
He’s the one Type A that I felt like would be worth picking up, he’s a speedster, which is a skillset that generally ages well, he’s a great defensive player, he can play multiple positions and he’s probably going to come relatively cheap. If we can pick him up for 4/36 I’d be very happy with that move.
4/36 and two picks is relatively cheap?
That’s a pretty big investment. Not that he’s a bad player but he is coming off a huge season and I doubt he’s going anywhere for cheap.
We'd only lose one pick
The second is a supplemental round pick that wouldn’t come from us. Look, if he costs 12-15 I wouldn’t do that, but 9 mil per year for a 3-4 win guy (I don’t expect him to repeat his 2009 season) would be a bargain. Even if you add the 5 million dollar cost of that 1st round pick it’s still a bargain.
Oh wait you're right
I was thinking we would lose the sandwich pick we gain for Beltre leaving as well but apparently that’s not the case, which it’s kind of weird that we wouldn’t. So technically if we were to let a type A walk and sign a different type A, we would earn a net gain of a sandwich pick? This system is so screwed up.
No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No No
Chone Figgins is the one player on the market that I irrationally want no part of because fuck Chone Figgins.
"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco
♥♥♥♥♥CHONE!!!!!♥♥♥♥♥
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Dec 4, 2009 12:15 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Speaking of which...
I’m really starting to wonder if the M’s gave Jack an extra 10-20 million to play with. No that Chone Figgins would break our bank, we’d still be able to go out and add a pitcher like Harden and a 1B/DH type like Nick Johnson, but I’ve just got this feeliing that Z has a ton of flexibiliy to play around with.
Kind of makes you wonder where and why Bill Bavasi was always yapping about reaching .500 so he could make big moves.
I always thought that was Bavasi being Bavasi, but maybe that’s coming from Howard/Armstrong, hit .500 and they loosen up the purse strings.
Rotoworld is saying that Greg Zaun has signed.....with the Brewers?
"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco
Just saw that.
Whatever. On the one hand, I’d have liked for him to come here. On the other hand, he’s old and has a lame moustache. Johnson/Moore it is.
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 4, 2009 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
Finally! From Rotoworld:
According to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, the Mariners have initiated long-term contract talks with young ace Felix Hernandez.
The two sides are still far apart, but it’s good to hear the M’s are beginning to make an effort. King Felix is going to demand a monster salary on any length of extension — over $20 million per year, according to Rosenthal — but he certainly appears to be worth it
"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco
A little over 20 mil a year is what he's likely to get in free agency
I hope that’s not what he’s actually looking for from an extension…..
As usual, Rotoworld:
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times has heard that free agent outfielder Jason Bay will “stand on his head” to play for the Mariners.
Bay is from British Columbia, the Canadian province just north of Seattle, and would like to get closer to home. The M’s have already expressed interest despite his lacking defense, so talks have the potential to run smoothly. That said, the Red Sox still have interest in bringing him back and could probably outbid the Mariners if they truly want to retain the outfielder.
Alright Jason. Here it is. 2 years, $10 Million total. Right here, right now. If you want to play for us so bad, money shouldn’t be a problem. Right?
The Marlins are not willing to part with Ricky Nolasco this winter, reports Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.
Damn. He was near the top of my trade target list. Oh well.
The Diamondbacks were in attendance at a recent throwing session featuring free agent J.J. Putz, according to FOXSports.com.
The Phillies and Astros have also been linked to Putz this offseason. Teams are aware of his raw ability and are hoping he’ll be open to a cheap contract, but with so much interest he may be able to step up his demands. The 32-year-old Putz had a 5.22 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 2009, but he’s only two years removed from a lights-out season as closer of the Mariners.
Putz WOOOOOO!!!!!
"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco
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