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Dustin Ackley, the 2nd baseman?

The idea is not new, but this is the first that I can recall it being seriously talked about. According to Shannon Drayer the Mariners are going to give Dustin Ackley some reps at second base. Here's a quick rundown of some pros and cons:

PROS

  • Ackley at second base clears the potential outfield logjam
  • Second base is still a premium defensive position
  • Second base is a hard position to find left-handed offense
  • Assuming Ackley would be a plus OFer is probably misguided

CONS

  • Transitioning to a new position could stunt Ackley's development
  • The outfield logjam with Michael Saunders, Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro was only a potential one. It's not like all four were bleeding for Major League playing time in 2010
  • Second base is less valuable than center field
  • There's no guarantee that Ackley can be a quality defensive second baseman and if he bombs there, the team will need to move him again.

For now, I am going to reserve judgment until we get further details on just what "working out at 2nd base" entails, how the rest of the offseason goes and what level (and position) Ackley begins the 2010 Minor League season at. Also, other things might happen. Rest assured though, this is probably going to be talked about a lot. Regardless of what actually happens, the subject of the outfield's future has already been a hot topic to discuss.

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I'm strongly for it

I feel like we’ve got a Franklin Gutierrez who is going to be locked into center field for a long time, and a left fielder Ackley is not nearly as valuable as a 2nd baseman Ackley, plus, as you said, it’s damn near impossible to find a lefty power hitting second baseman. If it works, that’s awesome.

If not, well, yeah, it is a gamble, but we had no guarantees he’d be a + centerfielder either

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Nov 20, 2009 5:27 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I was in favor of this before but now I'm not so sure.

It sounds like they’re going to have him try playing a bit of both this year and see what happens, and I’m afraid that might hamper his development at either for a while.

by OlSalty on Nov 20, 2009 5:30 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

One of these people or not one of these people we could acquire in a trade or something

Ronnie Belliard (35) – Type B
Jamey Carroll (36)
Alex Cora (34)
Craig Counsell (39)
Mark DeRosa (35) – Type B
Nick Green (31)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Orlando Hudson (32) – Type A
Adam Kennedy (34)
Felipe Lopez (30) – Type B
Mark Loretta (38)
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Placido Polanco (34) – Type A
Luis Rodriguez (30)
Juan Uribe (31)

by OlSalty on Nov 20, 2009 5:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We don't need to look for one of those.

Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.

p.s. fuck you angels

by InSpokane on Nov 20, 2009 5:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Center Fielders are just the best OFs on a team

And moving a CF level defender to the corner just means you get about 10 more runs of defense out of the corner. Ichiro is a CF. Endy Chavez was a CF. They just play the corners. Supposing Ackley plays in the corner, there’s no major loss to moving him there if we have, for example, the best outfiedler alive in center.

by philosofool on Nov 21, 2009 4:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

LF would have fewer chances than CF

But in Safeco, a plus defensive LF is a large competitive advantage, especially when the Jason Bay’s of the world come into town. It’s like if the A’s had 1B/3B with range to run down the pop ups in all that foul territory.

Though if the M’s continue to shift to left handed hitters, I’m not sure what that does to the fly ball distribution chart and how that would impact the number of chances opposing LF would have in a game.

by CMC_Stags on Nov 24, 2009 11:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Happy to see them try it

Nothing wrong with a little versatility from your top prospect.

by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 20, 2009 5:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I bet he would be one hell of a closer.

Racer X. You have to love those amarillo hops.

p.s. fuck you angels

by InSpokane on Nov 20, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

While I understand the concern it could hurt his development in the outfield

It seems like it is worth a shot to see if he takes to it.

by Gihyou on Nov 20, 2009 6:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The thing is that 6 months ago he wasn't an outfielder either

It’s not like we’ve committed to him playing the outfield. If the organization thinks he’s better suited at 2nd (and therefore that Gutz is a long term solution in center field, something I certainly subscribe to), then I’m all for it.

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Nov 20, 2009 6:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And a pitcher.

He can still close for us!

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 20, 2009 6:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Eh...

The only concern I have is when those opposed to him playing out of CF mention this move as being detrimental to his development, in what way do they mean?

It’s not like he’s so raw that he requires years of instruction in order to cut-it in the majors, and I don’t buy it that a professional ball-player would be SO distracted by a position shift that it would negatively effect his level of play—And even if it did; Ackley was ALREADY going to undergo a position change from 1B to CF, was THAT move not supposed to effect him detrimentally?

I think it boils down to whether or not he can physically/mentally play a position. If he can stick at 2B while Gutierrez plays CF, awesome. If the team needs him to still play the outfield, no big deal, he transitions there.

I just think the potential upside of having Ackley, Guttierez and Saunders (or some as of yet unknown LF) playing in the same line-up outweights any perceived negatives.

by Adam B on Nov 20, 2009 6:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I love this.

It’s not just the current OF logjam; most of our good minor league talent is in the OF and I feel like the organization has strong enough scouting credentials to know whether or not he has the correct defensive skillset to play 2B. I don’t know very much about what to look for when scouting players (and I’ve seen very little of Ackley in any case) but I’ve heard more than one person that generally knows what their talking about state that his abilities might be more well suited to 2B than CF.

Best case scenario is he maximizes his defensive value and is an adequate glove at 2B, worst case scenario is he moves back to the OF and it delays him a few months. The reward is decent and the risk is small.

by acblue on Nov 20, 2009 6:29 PM PST reply actions   3 recs

I'm also in this camp.

What do we have in the way of 2B prospects? Tui kind of? Triunfel kind of? But we have lots of depth at OF, so it seems to me in a way we are trading from an area of strength to address an area of weakness, which is always a good idea.

FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Goose on Nov 20, 2009 6:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Tui kind of, Triunfel kind of

Plus Juan Diaz, sort of, and Gabriel Noriega way down the line, though he’d be better at short.

It is just that, using an area of strength to fix an area of weakness, and is consequently awesome.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 20, 2009 6:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Kyle Sieger?

Kind of ironic that Ackley ends up taking his former teammate and fellow Mariner draftee’s position.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 21, 2009 2:00 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, I'm not as wild about Seager as are others.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 21, 2009 11:10 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It makes sense from a position of organizational need

And personally I don’t think either of those really count because Triunfel is probably gonna fill a different need at third base and Tui probably can’t play second well enough.

But if you’re a fan of using every prospect to their maximum potential value then trading your redundancies to fill the gaps, it might delay his development and CF is an even more scarce position as far as good hitters go.

It’s not that big of a deal now, but at some point they’re probably going to have to commit to one or the other since he hasn’t played either position before and he’s got quite a bit to learn. Expecting him to learn both at once on a level which would be adequate in the majors might be asking too much unless they really think he’s capable of picking them both up.

by OlSalty on Nov 20, 2009 7:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

To me it comes down to a handed-ness split

If he were right handed, yeah, put him in centre field. Since he’s a lefty gap/power hitter, he has a tonne more value at second. 2nd and centre are quite similar positions in terms of defensive value, with centre obviously being a bit more important, but 2nd still being a premium position. But power hitting lefty 2nd basemen don’t exist. Power hitting lefty centre fielders do, although they are rare. The amazingness of filling a Safeco-perfect hitter at a position like 2nd base makes me say “Put him at second”

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Nov 20, 2009 7:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm...
But power hitting lefty 2nd basemen don’t exist.

Wait, isn’t there some guy who plays in the National League, whose name sounds a bit like ‘Ackley’… Updike? Upson? He might even have played in the World Series this year. I just can’t seem to remember his name. Oh well.

by cyberwulf on Nov 20, 2009 10:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly.

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Nov 20, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Any idea what the plan is for Kyle Seager?

If Ackley is going to move to 2B, he will likely go to Single-A or Double-A, right? Seager finished the season at the Single-A level and I would imagine he might move up considering he his line is decent and he came out of college. I know he isn’t considered a high-level prospect, but he was a third round draft pick and I would imagine Jack Z wants to get him moving through the system considering his position.

by Wilder. on Nov 20, 2009 6:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Seager, I could see at High Desert.

He never hit for the power Ackley did though. He might be able to stick at second, but his bat isn’t in the same league as Ackley.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 20, 2009 6:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I see no way Ackley goes to Single-A

That would retard his offensive development.

Ackley starts at Double-A, Seager at High-A.

by Matthew on Nov 20, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Kyle Seager is a stretch to ever be anything more then a utility man...

And he’s not nearly as advanced a hitter as Ackley anyway.

IOW, the Mariners aren’t blocking anybody by this move which is one reason it could really pay off for them.

by Adam B on Nov 20, 2009 7:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Seager is more of a lottery ticket than a prospect

he’s the kind guy who has a 1/250 chance of being a 3+ WAR player, a small (1/100) chance of being average, and a chance (1/8) of playing from the bench.

In short, he’s not the sort of player that comes into consideration when you’re deciding how to develop top prospects.

by philosofool on Nov 21, 2009 4:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm reading this as the organization loving Franklin Gutierrez and/or

aren’t convinced Ackley is going to be a plus centerfielder. Possibly the arm strength hasn’t returned? Doesn’t hurt to try it out. I trust the guys who have scouted him for well over a year now, have watched him daily in the AFL, etc..

by Rudy4three on Nov 20, 2009 7:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I like the idea a lot more now that I've seen how well Schumaker made the transition.

Most agree that Ackley is about a year away from the majors as a hitter. It took Schumaker less than a season (all in the majors, no less) to become an average-ish defensive 2B.
If Ackley is athletic enough and has the quickness and agility needed to play the position, I see no reason not to try him out there.

Tui isn’t a second baseman, Triunfel might have the range but he’s still years away and it’s a waste of his cannon arm. The other guys in the org don’t project to be major league regulars anyway, at least at this point in their development (I mean they could have decent MLB careers but none of them are anywhere near locks).

Anyway, as far as positional changes go this one isn’t too out-there. It’s not like we’re trying to turn Poythress into a CF or something.

by lailaihei on Nov 20, 2009 7:32 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Uhhhhh Schumaker was -7.7 at 2nd base.

FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Goose on Nov 20, 2009 7:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You have to consider the fact that Schumaker didn't play 2B at all, even in the minors, before the transition.

I bet he’s a +UZR guy in 2010 at 2B, given that he won’t be doing on-the-job training at the major league level.

by lailaihei on Nov 20, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, but I actually watched the transitiion

I don’t know that he’s actually a neutral defender going forward, but the progress he made was remarkable

by Poochie on Nov 20, 2009 9:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

One year of UZR.

Scouts seem to think he was solid by year’s end.

by acblue on Nov 21, 2009 1:42 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Works for me.

Looking forward to seeing how this turns out.

by ThundaPC on Nov 20, 2009 7:52 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Done for you, 2011

RF Ichiro
CF Gutz
DH Lefty badass
1B Lefty Badass
3B Righty Badass
2B Ackley
LF Saunders
C Moore
SS Some dude

That’s a World Series team right there

Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Wyomingroutes.org & Washingtonhighways.org

by I'm NOT Corco on Nov 20, 2009 8:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm...

RF-Ichiro!
CF-Guti
2b-Ackley
DH-Poythress
1b-Raben
3b-Triunfel
LF-Saunders
C-Moore
SS- Some dude

You got slurved!

by Slurvey on Nov 20, 2009 9:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wilson is inked through '11.

So he’s that “some dude”.

You’re hoping on Raben making some pretty rapid progress up through the minors, and Triunfel somehow hitting for more power than Tui. Not that I’m suggesting we should project him based off this fact alone, but he does only have eight home runs in 925 regular season plate appearances.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 20, 2009 9:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmmm...

Raben could start his way from A+ to somewhere around AA/AAA but then that was what I thought pre-surgery and there’s a bunch of questions surrounding him still. I put Triunfel at third because I think his defense and a semi-solid bat combined with speed might win the job but then again I like Tui still so…

You got slurved!

by Slurvey on Nov 20, 2009 9:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A lot of questions still about Raben

The micro-fracture surgery he went through is anything but a sure thing. There’s even a possibility he may never recover enough to play baseball again.

by nathaniel dawson on Nov 21, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

They have the same positional adjustment

Both +2.5, implying they are equal for practical purposes.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 20, 2009 10:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Furthermore,

there were the same number of 3+ WAR 2B as CF in 2009.

As far as I have ever seen, the difference between CF and 2B is small enough that this isn’t a big deal. If they were talking “Ackley to First” because the organization needs a 1B I’d be pretty annoyed. But the difference between 2B ad CF is a few runs at most.

by philosofool on Nov 21, 2009 5:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think Ackley will hit and walk to get on base well enough.

But the power probably wont be Utley level. My balls tell me he’s Derek Jeter West in terms of overall hitting, though I have no way of substantiating that claim.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 21, 2009 2:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think hoping he turns into either of those guys -- both of whom are Hall of Fame talents -- is a bit unrealistic.

I’d love it, of course, but being realistic, I’m hoping he turns into Brian Roberts. Different kind of player, I know, but it’s hard to find a good comp for what I’m thinking, which is basically: good contact, high OBP, average power, average to above average at second. Roberts is the first thing that comes to mind.

by Teej on Nov 21, 2009 3:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess I should probably scale it down a bit.

But what I was thinking was similar isolated walk rates and power rates. So what I’m thinking is he’ll hover in the .70 to .90 ISO walk rate and .150 to .170 power rate areas. I have a feeling his contact rates will be lower than Jeter’s though, so he’ll strike out a bit more.

Back to my balls, they’re thinking a career line of .290 / .360 / .440 out of Ackley wouldn’t be out of the question.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 21, 2009 12:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think his career average is over .300.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 21, 2009 12:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, Jeter's is .313

So I scaled mine back a bit. Do you think my estimations on overall on base skills and power are off the mark? If they aren’t, then my calling him the Derek Jeter West can’t be that ridiculous.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 21, 2009 5:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think they're close, yes.

Basically, there are five players in UNC history that have hit over four hundred, ever. Ackley did it three times. I expect his ability to hit for average to be very, very good.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 21, 2009 5:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Who are the other four?

Not that it matters, but it might.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 22, 2009 12:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The list includes B.J. Surhoff and Brian Roberts.

And Jeremy Cleveland and Jim Mooring, with the case still out on the sixth in Tim Fedroff.

Ackley has three of the top ten seasons in batting average for them, but the rest of the list is not exciting, as you can see.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 22, 2009 8:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So is the writing figuratively on the wall for Lopez now?

This seems like a big sign that they’re not picking up his 2011 option or planning on trying to re-sign him. And if they aren’t going to do that they probably don’t let him walk away at the end of 2010 with his value now probably higher than it’s ever been, unless they want to take a chance on him being type A.

It kind of makes the whole moving him to first base rumor thingy look like one of those fake last ditch efforts teams make with players they’re about to trade who might lead to a fan backlash.

by OlSalty on Nov 21, 2009 2:11 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I could see them picking up his option and then immediately shipping him to another team.

Or who knows, the whole Tui/Hannahan/Wilson thing could fall about at third, and Lopez could man that position for us until Triunfel is ready.

by katal on Nov 21, 2009 8:56 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.

Those who rec’d this, even out of sympathy, should be ashamed.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 21, 2009 12:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Never have I seen such insightful analysis ...

… not even in any of my soil mechanics lab reports (my Mohr’s Circles were frickin’ awesome).

The easiest +1 decision I’ve ever made.

by Steve Nelson on Nov 24, 2009 9:23 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, Mohr's Circles

It’s been a while since I had to do one of those, but it brings back “fond” memories.

by el generico on Nov 24, 2009 10:33 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You sank my battleship

And I thought it was safely hidden.

by strudel on Nov 23, 2009 11:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So where does this put Triunfel?

He can’t play SS, and has been getting time at 2nd and 3rd recently. But he doesn’t have enough power to play 3rd and now he’ll be blocked by Ackley at 2nd. I know he’s a couple years away, but 2nd looked like his destined position until this announcement. Maybe some reps out in the outfield would be worthwhile.

by Scrupio on Nov 21, 2009 11:33 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

John Sickels made a comment that to him, Triunfel looks 25.

And he wasn’t referring to a falsified age, but that Triunfel has put on some serious muscle and lost a lot of mobility already. Though, considering he recently saw Carlos after a nearly full season of inactivity due to a leg injury, I’m not sure how much stock to put into that comment.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 21, 2009 12:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, I meant the mobility part of my statement.

Hard to grade someone’s mobility so fresh after a broken leg. Might need to give him some time to return to form… or not… before judging mobility.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 21, 2009 5:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He was doing pretty good in High Desert the second half of last year

Who knows how he comes back from the injury, of course, but there were promising signs.

And he’s supposed to have an amazing arm that’s kind of wasted at 2B.

by OlSalty on Nov 21, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Stilll like 3 years away from the majors.

So I wouldn’t worry about it too much. Even if Triunfel’s project position was 2nd base, AND Ackley succeeds at 2nd base, AND they don’t trade either of them, that far in the future has so much wiggle room – especially with regards to position – that I don’t think it’s even that much of a concern.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Nov 22, 2009 3:15 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ackley at 2B

the majority of offensive talent in the organization is in the outfield, true, but none of us have seen him in the middle of the infield so to venture an opinion is absurd. I keep hearing about everyone but Tui at third- he looks like the man there to my eyes. Triunfel is 2 years away realistically, and they need to decide where he is going to be to advance his development. Joe Dunnigan looks like a fast mover through the organization in the outfield, with power. Lets not forget all these players are poetential trading chips. As far as Lopez is concerned, he’s fine at second for the time being, a sure things at first as well, and he can flat out hit. A few more walks and he’s a .300 hitter with rising power, a proven run producer. Trading him would be a shame, a man with ability and character.

by gitanoloco on Nov 21, 2009 4:24 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Absurd? Really?

Also, Lopez is not a good hitter and will most likely never be a good hitter.

by acblue on Nov 21, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

But 25 homeruns!!!

And he’s the best at fouling off ball four after ball four!

Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Nov 21, 2009 5:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Tui? Really?

I keep hearing about everyone but Tui at third- he looks like the man there to my eyes.

I have a hard time seeing that myself. To this point, he hasn’t shown yet that he can supply any defensive value to a team. He looks like he may turn out to be a capable hitter, but not to the level that could overcame poor defensive play. In fact, he reminds me a lot of Mike Morse. I just have a hard time seeing Tui as ever being valuable enough overall to be an above average player,.

by nathaniel dawson on Nov 22, 2009 2:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

But Tui is a better hitter than Mike Morse and is a better fielder.

Tui might be meh at third but he’s a pretty good hitter.

You got slurved!

by Slurvey on Nov 22, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

26 homers and 90 plus rbi’s is not a good hitter? What team have you been watching? He hit over .300 after June 1, and was terrific in the clutch.

by gitanoloco on Nov 21, 2009 4:28 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

RBIs and batting average aren't good ways to measure a hitter's ability and performance in the clutch isn't a repeatable skill..

 The homers are nice, but the ~.300 OBP and ~.325 wOBA aren’t so hot. He’s a league average player and he’s cheap, and combined with passable defense and his being a second baseman that makes him an asset, but he’s not a good hitter.

(Also, please use the subject line and reply button.)

by acblue on Nov 21, 2009 4:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I admire the fact you responded to this.

Anytime I see this question,

What team have you been watching?
I just ignore everything else.

by Sec 108 on Nov 23, 2009 7:37 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

His OBP is horrible

And he wasn’t exactly hammering most of those homers, either, for what that’s worth

He’s also a bad fit for this park

And his contract expires in 2011 and that’s a club option year for 5mil. His perceived value is as high as it’s likely to get. If they do wind up committing to Ackley at 2B they’re likely going to have to let him walk or move him to a different position, because he’s going to want to get paid and get years and that would block Ackley were he to stay where he is.

by OlSalty on Nov 21, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Please refrain from comments about RBIs and Clutch hitting.

“Clutching hitting” is the half-full version of “lazy when it’s not that important.”

Spend some time thinking about why Grady Sizemore had fewer RBI than Aramis Ramirez, Josh Hamilton and Jason Bay in 2008. This will help you understand what an RBI means. (Hint: the answer is not “Sizemore is a worse hitter” nor “Sizemore is bad in the clutch.”)

by philosofool on Nov 21, 2009 4:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

His defense is pretty subpar.

His offensive value is inflated due to the HRs and RBIs and even the HRs he’s hitting are lame and only 1 went past 400 feet.

He doesn’t run well, he’s not a particularly amazing defender, he doesn’t get on base and his pull power isn’t a good fit for Safeco.

You got slurved!

by Slurvey on Nov 21, 2009 6:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Lopez spent much of the season hitting third in the lineup.

Much of his RBI numbers can be attributed to having Ichiro (.386 OBP) and Gutierrez (.339 OBP) hitting in front of him.

by Wilder. on Nov 21, 2009 7:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Jeff Francouer also hit well over .300 the last month of the season.

And his wOBA during that time was .397. He must be a good hitter, too.

Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Nov 22, 2009 1:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Lopez

you speak as if this team has the luxury of unloading run producing hitters. No, Lopez is not an ideal 3 hitter, but considering where this team is at this point in time, I don’t see another alternative unless Z pulls off something amazing. Remember, he had nobody exactly lethal hitting behind him, and a high OBP would not have been a productive stat for him- you don’t drive in runs with base on balls. As for the comment stating that the only reason he had 90 plus RBI’s is due to Ichiro’s performance……….well………duh………..that is his job- drive in the set up guys

by gitanoloco on Nov 21, 2009 11:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I have a new sig. It's gold Jerry! GOLD!

"you don’t drive in runs with base on balls."
~gitanoloco

by Goose on Nov 22, 2009 1:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He should tell that to Andruw Jones.

11th inning of game 6 Kenny Rogers walked Andruw Jones to force in a run and send Atlanta to the World Series.

by Sec 108 on Nov 23, 2009 7:42 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Placido Polanco has posted nearly identical wOBA's to Jose Lopez the last two years

Placido Polanco is also a better defender than Jose Lopez. And he is a free agent. Not that I am advocating that move specifically it’s just one example. There are no miracles required here, there are many many options available that wouldn’t represent a significant dropoff in production. Lopez isn’t nearly as good as you think he is.

by OlSalty on Nov 22, 2009 12:08 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Have you looked at Polanco's head?

It’s like he an extra top of the head sewn on around his own head. He should charge teams extra for the circus freak factor.

by short on Nov 23, 2009 9:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm going to give you some very helpful advice.

You’re not right. Everybody else here knows that and is going to tell you as such. If you have a lot of people tell you you’re wrong, you have basically two choices:

1). Persist in being wrong to the point where you eventually are ostracized from this site.
or
2). Realize that something might be up here and look around the site for reasons why we’re saying what we’re saying.

The term “when in Rome, do as the Romans do” is a piece of sage advice. Whatever you’ve read before, whatever you’ve learned before, wherever you’ve posted before, is irrelevant. You’re here, now. This site is a home to people who study advanced methods of player analysis and sabermetrics. If you’re not going to be willing to follow along, then you’re going to be asked to leave in a hurry.

And Graham? He wont be as nice as I am right now about it.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Nov 22, 2009 12:25 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And don't think TIF is asking you to act like a sheep and believe us because we tell you to do so.

There are some very knowledgable baseball people that frequent this site, and those people know that Jose Lopez just isn’t that good a player. Is he useful? Yes. We could certainly do worse at 2B. But improving at 2B also wouldn’t be very difficult, either.

Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Nov 22, 2009 1:10 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would if my mom would unlock the door.

She calls my white, pastey skin an assault on the eyes.

Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Nov 22, 2009 1:13 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Or, better yet, are you arguing that Lopez having an OBP north of .350 would have been a bad thing?

Your argument that a high OBP would not have been productive for Lopez is complete bunk. A high OBP is a productive stat no matter what kind of hitter you are, or where in the order you hit.

Say it with me: Washington Capitals. Capitals.
Preserved In All His Greatness - R.I.P. The Reignman 1989 to 1997

by JLProck on Nov 22, 2009 1:59 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No offense, but I don't

see how you can judge someone’s intelligence based on a couple posts. Wasn’t the whole point of Jeff’s post a few days back to discourage this sort of reasoning?

Yes, from this guy’s posts he seems to strongly subscribe to traditional basball thought and has a problem with LL’s UI. I’m sure there were quite a few posters on here that had similar issues when they were new to the site. I know I did.

by redwolf75 on Nov 22, 2009 2:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I still have yet to understand this thought process.

It’s like going to bowling alleys and getting into a discussion about why a someone was unable to hit the 4/10 split. They say something like “the angle of the curve caused a ricochet that rotated the pin at a little too high a velocity, narrowly missing the 10… Next time I’ll have to try arching my hand more” and someone like you responds with something like “You know what you should have done, though, is hit both the pins down! Duh, moron!”

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Nov 22, 2009 3:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So Jose Lopez has decided to only hit when there's an RBI involved, and most likely for the win.

Brilliant! Coupled with his economical home runs, and efficient strike outs, I don’t see the problem here. Not only is he a 25 WAR player, he’s probably shaving something in the order of 20 minutes off every game. Consider how much the hang time Branyan home runs add to a game, very inefficient.

by Kermit. on Nov 22, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm... I meant on an analysis level.

But that’s an excellent point. I don’t know how to change the example. Maybe "See, what you needed to do right there was place your hand over the fan. Cool hands make the pins go down.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Nov 22, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You've misunderstood the value of OBP

OBP is not about driving in runs, it’s about not getting out and keeping the inning alive while adding runners to the bases. (Note that the probablility of producing an out once on base is much, much lower than while at the plate.) Allow me to illustrate using data collected over literally thousands of baseball games.

If you have a man on second and no outs, on average, your team scores 1.19 runs that inning.
If you have a man on second and one out, on average, your team scores 0.725 runs that inning.

So, getting out with a man on second effectively costs the team .44 runs.

If you have men on second and first and no outs, your team scores 1.57 runs (on average) that inning.

So, walking with a man on second effectively nets you .38 runs.

Notice that the difference between -.44 and .38 is .82 runs. So a walk with a man on second and no outs is worth almost a whole run.

I’m pretty sure I’m talking to a wall right now, but if not, something about the nature of not getting out.

Also, in the AL in 2009, 165 RBIs were accumulated by walking with the bases loaded.

by philosofool on Nov 22, 2009 10:05 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No seriously you are one comment from going away

If you want to learn, fine, whatever. If you want to think you’re right, I don’t the have patience to deal with your ilk.

by Graham on Nov 22, 2009 10:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Why not test him out at SS?

He might never be an above average fielder at SS but we have so little depth. I know the FO loves Wilson but it just makes me nervous not having any real backup plan or future behind him if something goes wrong.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 22, 2009 3:10 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Lacks the arm?

Don’t know exactly why not, but presumably he lacks on of the necessary tools for SS, and presumably that would be his arm since he’s had TJ surgery.

by philosofool on Nov 22, 2009 6:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Johnny Damon has had a pretty good career

If Ackley’s career matches Damon’s he and we should be pleased.

by vj on Nov 23, 2009 3:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, but it seems like a different sort of arm

A SS needs to be able to make throws from his knees, while diving away from first base, etc. An OF just needs to have an arm that fires when he’s set.

Of course, a better answer than the one I gave above is simply that he doesn’t have the range for SS. I can’t imagine that it’s very hard to see when a guy lacks the athleticism for SS.

by philosofool on Nov 23, 2009 9:20 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd imagine 2B needs almost as much range as SS

I’d imagine SS mostly just needs a stronger/more accurate arm

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 23, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You don't need quite as much range at 2B

Just because there are fewer balls hit to the right side of the infield than the left

by Graham on Nov 23, 2009 2:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So its because of the number of oppurtunies

not the inherent skill? Same think with RF/LF and CF right?

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 23, 2009 4:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be interested to find out those numbers.

Take the shortstop with the best range in the game, move him to second and see if his defensive value really drops by that much.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Nov 23, 2009 4:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Still you're only facing around 25% lefties

So your defensive skills are tested far less often than a shortstops’ are, even if they have the same amount of area on the field to cover.

by OlSalty on Nov 23, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This isn't true at all

it all comes down to arm strength and mechanics. A player with good arm strength and mechanics will be able to adapt to play a new position – one without won’t.

by seattlebruin on Nov 23, 2009 5:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This is the worst fucking thing ever

it’ worse than Kristen Stewart’s “acting” in Twilight and Yuniesky Betancourt’s “defense” at SS and when they picked Josh Fields, combined

by seattlebruin on Nov 24, 2009 9:47 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's pretty bad.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 24, 2009 9:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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