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Some 2010 Projections

For those of you who are (justifiably) distrustful of the Bill James projections but still want to look at some numbers, the 2010 CHONE projections are live. For hitters, anyway. Here are the Marinershere are the free agents, and here are the Yankees, in case looking at the Mariners didn't make you sad enough.

The first thing you should do here - as one should do with pretty much any forecasting system - is ignore the Ichiro projection. It's a well-known fact that forecasting systems hate Ichiro, and I mean literally hate him, in that they have a built-in hate factor that program creators activate for Ichiro because they feel threatened by his improbability. It's my understanding that CHONE took all the hits it stole from Ichiro and gave them to Prentice Redman.

Eventually Ichiro will decline and a few forecasters will give each other high-fives for nailing it, but it doesn't count when you project decline every year. It's like the computer version of me and Raul Ibanez. .305/.338/.400 isn't unreasonable - Ichiro did hit .310/.361/.386 as recently as 2008 - but just because it's possible doesn't make it a good projection, because projections are supposed to fall in the middle of the next year's probability distribution, and a .738 OPS is towards the bottom of Ichiro's. Feel free to bump that up a fair bit in your head. It'll help paint a slightly better picture of our currently miserable offense.

Among Mariners currently in-house, you'll notice that Jose Lopez forecasts well, while Franklin Gutierrez comes out looking a little worse. The former strikes me as optimistic, given the things I've talked about before with regard to Lopez's power, but the latter seems fair, given that Guti probably overachieved a little bit in 2009. But hey, he's young, so who knows? Not a lot of love in there for Michael Saunders or Matt Tuiasosopo, which you can believe in, or not believe in. Overall, man, do we need help. The Russell Branyan line looks good, but that won't be enough on its own.

Most optimistic projection of the bunch? Greg Halman's .193/.242/.334 with 17 walks and 147 strikeouts. Halman just ran a 29/183 ratio in AA. Methinks the decimal in "17" was put in the wrong place.

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You know, I thought the Giants' CHONES looked bad...

But you guys are like “whoa”

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Nov 15, 2009 3:52 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Go Mariners!

After a brief review I believe we have the worst projections in baseball, and by a fairly good margin.

by Jeff on Nov 15, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This is why I was not optimistic about our roster in the other thread

We all love defense around here and really have learned to appreciate it but it would be really nice to have a little offense.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 15, 2009 4:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It'll come

Those projections don’t include Branyan or our regular 1B/DH. Those two players won’t take us over the top, of course, but they’ll help a lot, and they’ll also leave room to improve either at the plate or on the mound.

by Jeff on Nov 15, 2009 4:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ouch.

My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!

by gregrabble on Nov 15, 2009 4:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

We need some defence projections to cheer us up a bit.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Nov 15, 2009 4:09 PM PST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Wahlah

And BAM

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Nov 15, 2009 4:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Nov 15, 2009 9:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He's joking about your spelling.

It’s spelled “Voila,” not “Wahlah.” – it’s French.

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Nov 15, 2009 10:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh.. I wasn't trying to spell "Voila" though

I’m not sure what I was trying to say… maybe that one thing that magicians do before they pull the rabbit out of the hat?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Nov 15, 2009 10:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok

That’s what I get for visiting LL between sections of my paper.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Nov 15, 2009 11:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

For the record, I thought it was really funny, and not in a mocking way.

Also, there is a word in Arabic that is a lot like Wahlah (not sure how its spelled, only how its said) which means ‘come on’ in a sort of petulant, impatient sense.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 16, 2009 7:08 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Of course I go and fuck it up too

can’t believe I forgot its been portmonteau’d.

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 16, 2009 7:10 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Prentice Redman probably could of been a decent 4th outfielder last year

Too bad for him really, I wonder why Zduriencik did not give him a go before Langerhans.

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 15, 2009 4:36 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I am not really complaining

I am just intrigued by the thought of what he could have done. Career MILB players suprise every once in a while and it would have been nice(for him) if he got a chance to play.

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 16, 2009 8:27 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Could HAVE...

That’s another pet peeve of mine, right up there with the incorrect usages of either/or and neither/nor. “Could of” doesn’t make sense on any level. Could have… could HAVE…

by Ike Clanton on Nov 16, 2009 6:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I actually appreciate that being put out there(no sarcasm)

Grammar in any language has never been my forte and I hate making mistakes like that.

by tdot mariner fan on Nov 16, 2009 8:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I get annoyed whenever something doesnt list wOBA.

Thats the only offensive stat I really care about.

by ARock on Nov 15, 2009 7:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I prefer wOBA because:

1) I know it is good, I have studied and read about why it accurate at converting from all kinds of offensive contributions into runs.
2) Due to using it frequently, I have become accustomed to its scale. I know what .300 and .330 and .400 mean in wOBA terms.
3) Its creator, Tom Tango, is someone whose analysis I trust, and he is employed by the Mariners, which makes me like everything of his even more (for no good reason).

by ARock on Nov 16, 2009 4:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

R/150 is essentially the same thing as wOBA

There are both based off of linear weights. wOBA is just R/150 scaled to OBP.

If you use this formula ((wOBA – LgwOBA)/1.15)*600, you’ll get R/150.

by vivaelpujols on Nov 16, 2009 6:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Here!!

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Nov 15, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No.

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Nov 15, 2009 7:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I caught one of those.

More than one actually

"Tell my tale to those who ask. Tell it truly, the ill deeds along with the good and let me be judged accordingly. The rest is silence." ~ Dinobot

by beastwarking on Nov 15, 2009 8:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This looks like a winner

1. Ichiro!
2. Gutierrez
3. Lopez
4. Redman
5. Shelton
6. Carp
7. Langerhans
8. Lahair
9. Moore

by Fogel on Nov 15, 2009 5:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If Bryan LaHair really gets 429 ABs in '10, something has gone horribly, horribly wrong with the offseason.

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Nov 15, 2009 7:26 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

These have gotta be minor league projections too

I mean, Greg Halman’s not getting 362 ABs

My Mariners blog - SodoMojo Twitter Feed, Fuck the fucking Angels!

by gregrabble on Nov 15, 2009 8:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The problem is we still haven't made any moves

So the roster spots are getting filled for projection purposes by players that on absolutely no planet should be in the Major Leagues in 2010 based on ’09 performance.

Enter Greg Halman.

by cwel87 on Nov 15, 2009 8:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Am I wrong for thinking he still should?

He’s awful but you’ve gotta just confirm he is as awful as he seemed to be considering his status in the org.

by OlSalty on Nov 15, 2009 8:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think the minor league guys are wrong

I’ve sent Sean an email, but in looking through the projections, the AAAA types are just too optimistic. Shelley Duncan has the same offensive projection as Russ Branyan. Danny Richar has the same projection as Felipe Lopez. There’s 50 examples just like that. If a guy had good numbers in Triple-A, regardless of previous performance or age, he’s projected as a league average or better hitter in the majors for 2010.

Jon Knott, who will be 31 in the spring and had a mediocre season in the Mexican League last year after an okay but not great minor league career, is projected as a league average hitter in the majors next year.

That’s nutty.

The only thing I can come up with is Sean missed a translation somewhere.

by davidcameron on Nov 15, 2009 9:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Andy Tracy and Raul Ibanez have the same projection

Andy Tracy is 36, so you can’t even use aging curves to explain it.

These projections are just wrong. I’d put $100 on Sean issuing a fixed set in the next few days.

by davidcameron on Nov 15, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I've never heard of Andy Tracy.

FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS! FUCK THE ANGELS!

by Goose on Nov 15, 2009 10:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Alright, that makes a lot more sense...

I was going to start playing with these numbers when they came out, but I can do better projections…

by lailaihei on Nov 16, 2009 6:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Halman projects for 17 walks

because that’s pretty much as few as someone can draw in a full season.

Only the most abysmally impatient hitters like Johjima and Yuni do that poorly (seriously, those guys were out to set some sort of record and didn’t tell us).

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Nov 16, 2009 12:31 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Uh...

Hate to break it to you, but Halman makes Yuni and Kenji look like Edgar Martinez.

by Adam B on Nov 16, 2009 12:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Right, but that makes him an historical outlier.

So decent projection system would ever predict a 3 walk season, even for a 3 walk hitter, because it’s just not a credible number (even if it’s accurate).

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Nov 16, 2009 12:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

err

“No decent projection system”

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Nov 16, 2009 12:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, but clearly some people didn't get that.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Nov 16, 2009 2:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you allowed to do that?

I thought this was serious blog…

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Nov 16, 2009 9:57 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I figured I'd check out Toronto's projection first.

It looks pretty bad. Aside from Adam Lind they don’t have anyone (CHONE apparently doesn’t think much of Travis Snider).

Then I looked at Seattle and burst out laughing. We’re not just last. We’re last by a mile. We envy the hitting prowess of the Kansas City Royals.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Nov 16, 2009 12:42 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

We did, and that's why we get decent production out of LaHair and Redman.

Resign Chris Shelton! Jerry Owens for LF!
Bring Jesus Guzman HOME!

by marc w on Nov 16, 2009 9:22 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I miss Jesus Guzman :(

Of course, I was the only one who was ever really arguing that he would amount to anything at all.

And naturally, I remember that, and not the players I thought might have careers as role players and subsequently disappeared.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/marinersminors/

by JY on Nov 16, 2009 6:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs


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