But I could have gone either way.

If you value UZR and RZR more, then he’s a 10 to 15 run defender. If you value Plus / Minus more, he’s a 15 to 25 run defender.

Still would be huge breath of fresh air after watching Yuni the past couple years.

Still good, but injuries and age will start to affect his defense.

but where do you find Revised Zone stats?

Link.

This seems like a good place to ask; given UZR’s unreliability on a year-to-year basis, how useful/predictive is an exercise such as this? My initial reaction is to think that it’s fairly realistic for someone with a large sample (like Jack Wilson, say, who is projected to be +4.3,) while it would be less than optimal for someone with a smaller sample (Franklin Gutierrez is projected as +15.5 in CF, as another example.)

The problem I can see, though, is in the weighting; because you need three full years of data to make any conclusions about a player’s true level of defensive ability, weighting the year-to-year data in such a manner seems less than optimal. If you simply average Wilson’s last three years of UZR/150, you get ~12.5/150. The linked projections, though, are including data outside of that three year range (even if it is carrying less weight) and including a penalty for aging, which seems fair until you consider that more than a few players have shown a lot of improvement in UZR as they age. That seems counterintuitive, but it’s still there.

Thoughts?