Turnover

by Matthew on Oct 20, 2009 8:47 AM PDT in Miscellaneous Comment 19 comments

You know how testy we get when people make comments about how awesome our <fill in unit of team> could be in <insert range> years? Remember the Nageotte/Blackley/Meche/Anderson rotations, Clement/Johjima/Johnson/Moore catching caches and Ichiro/Gutierrez/Saunders/Ackley outfields? We do our best to try and keep people grounded on these types of issues because, as it turns out, the future is incredibly hard to predict and a hell of a lot of things change in a very short period of time.

Here is a hopefully good example of what we mean. The following is a list of every player used by the 2008 Mariners:

Kenji Johjima -- Opted out
Richie Sexson -- Released
Jose Lopez --
Yuniesky Betancourt -- Traded
Adrian Beltre -- Contract expired
Raul Ibanez -- Contract expired
Jeremy Reed -- Traded
Ichiro Suzuki --
Jose Vidro -- Released
Wladimir Balentien -- Traded
Miguel Cairo -- Contract expired
Jeff Clement -- Traded
Willie Bloomquist -- Contract expired
Bryan LaHair -- Demoted
Jamie Burke -- Traded
Brad Wilkerson -- Released
Tug Hulett -- Designated for assignment
Luis Valbuena -- Traded
Matt Tuiasosopo --
Rob Johnson --
Greg Norton -- Traded
Mike Morse -- Traded
Charlton Jimerson -- Released

Felix Hernandez --
Jarrod Washburn -- Traded
Carlos Silva --
Erik Bedard -- Contract expired
J.J. Putz -- Traded
Ryan Rowland-Smith --
Sean Green -- Traded
Roy Corcoran -- Designated for assignment
Mark Lowe --
Miguel Batista -- Contract expired
R.A. Dickey -- Contract expired
Brandon Morrow --
Ryan Feierabend -- Injured
Cesar Jimenez -- Demoted
Cha Seung Baek -- Traded
Arthur Rhodes -- Traded
Jake Woods -- Designated for assignment
Randy Messenger --
Eric O'Flaherty -- Waived
Jared Wells -- Demoted
Justin Thomas -- Demoted

Number of players used: 44
Number of players remaining: 10
Number of players traded: 13

A single year later and under a quarter of the players used still remain with the team. That's two seasons of play and one offseason of moves. A lot changes and it changes quickly. This is why you don't draft for positional need and you should not concern yourself too much with what the roster might look like two or three years down the road. It's nice to keep a general idea, but I wouldn't get too worked up over exact names when looking that far down the line.

0 recs | Comment 19 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

While it's good to keep in mind that things can change quite quickly, this was something of an exceptional case, right?

Or rather, this is what a total rebuild looks like. Teams that turn over this many players in 1 or 2 years are not tweaking the roster, they’re gutting it. The A’s, Orioles and Reds have come close to this level of turnover, but I’m not sure I like those precedents.

I will say that the M’s completely overhauled the roster AND kept the best players. The other teams can’t say that, and this is what having money can do for you. But it also makes me think of Tony Blengino’s comment about keeping the 40 man roster from the day he was hired in his office…

by marc w on Oct 20, 2009 9:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Would you agree or disagree that it is during bad years

when the “look at what our future ______ will look like” becomes most prevalent?

by Matthew on Oct 20, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps, but much of the 'look what our future could be' talk has nothing to do with the 25 man roster.

The Orioles made a ton of moves between ’08 and ’09, but in both years, they knew their future was about Wieters/Matusz/Tillman.

2008 was extra depressing in that we didn’t really have high-ceiling guys in the high minors. Intriguing arms in A ball, Carlos Triunfel, but less at the top. I think that’s why M’s fans have been doing less of the ‘wait until Aumont/Ramirez/Pineda get here’ and more of the ‘what would it take to pry Hardy from Milwaukee?’ kinds of speculation.

by marc w on Oct 20, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

And they're still waiting on it. Wieters was a letdown this year.

When combined with Gordon and Reed, the AL seems to have a bad habit of humbling hyped rookie of the year prospects recently. Though I cannot remember the other hitters that got hyped up between ’05 and ’09.

Anyways, the main point was to focus on prospect development. After all, the list would make no sense if that were the case. It was mainly to point out just how fast and how much rosters can change. And also to show, wow, we’ve gutted almost our entire team in under two full years.

I figured the application to the minor leagues, where you have even more uncertainty, was relevant, but I never intended for it be the sole point. My fault for wording it in such a way as to give off that impression.

by Matthew on Oct 20, 2009 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Delmon Young, Brandon Wood, Cameron Maybin, Alex Gordon (just sticking with the AL)!

Evan Longoria obviously didn’t get the message.

by marc w on Oct 20, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: And also to show, wow, we’ve gutted almost our entire team in under two full years.

Yes, this is a good point. I haven’t seen this recently, but there used to be a lot of people who assumed that a rebuild required a team to trade its best players. Like we couldn’t rebuild AND keep Ichiro or Felix. I think 2009 has helped quiet that particular form of stupid. Which means we’ll get more talk of how the team’s rebuild from 2004-2007 was an utter failure.

Hey, that’s sort of interesting. It might be cool to look at some other double rebuilds, the double-dip recessions of the baseball world.

by marc w on Oct 20, 2009 12:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is a little misleading

because 2008 was a dismal, injury-riddled year that saw a lot of short term callups and poor quality stop gaps. This list is padded with names like Jimerson, Cairo, Morse, Thomas etc. The fact that 40% of the 25 man roster will still be around for 2010 is actually impressive given how the team played that year. All the same, only two position players and two starting pitchers are still with the team, so.. no its still a very high turnover rate. More than anything it tells you that Bavasi was not very good at running a baseball team (relative to his peers).

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Oct 20, 2009 9:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I just want Ackley/Gutierrez/Ichiro

I want it so bad

by RunningFool on Oct 20, 2009 11:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

So you're saying that I shouldn't take Baseball America's projected 2013 M's lineup as gospel?

by Manzanillos Cup on Oct 20, 2009 12:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh how I love our Front Office (FO). They have done wonders...

Can’t wait to see what they do in the coming months.

Gritty... that's the term I think of when I see Jack Wilson play. Gritty

by A Steamy Day in Cleveland on Oct 20, 2009 1:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

While this may be true.

I guarantee you our 2012 lineup will look like this:

LHP Erik Bedard – enough said, he’s ridiculous
RHP Felix Hernandez – dominant co-ace, innings-eater
RHP Philippe Aumont – innings-eater, skilled with three quality pitches
RHP Brandon Morrow – walks too many
LHP Juan Ramirez

Lineup:
C Rob Johnson
1B Jeff Clement
2B Carlos Truinfel
3B Matt Tuiasosopo
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
LF Wladimir Balentien
CF Ichiro Suzuki
RF Michael Saunders
DH Brian LaHair

Defense: Really good

Bullpen
LHP Ryan Rowland-Smith
LHP Eric O’Flaherty – quality
RHP Sean Green – walks a lot of batters, but effective
SU Mark Lowe
SU Tony Vavaro – reliable 8th inning guy
CL JJ Putz – aging, but still somewhat dominant

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Oct 20, 2009 2:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs