Fun With Numbers: More On Catching

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 15, 2009 9:57 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Stats

Looking at the two guys for whom we have good sample sizes. For Washburn, only Mariner stats included. Obviously.

Pitcher	Catcher	PA	HR%	uBB%	K%	BABIP
Felix	Johjima	1958	2.7%	7.4%	20.8%	0.327
Felix	Others	1828	1.5%	7.1%	22.1%	0.282
Washburn	Johjima	1862	3.0%	7.4%	12.8%	0.292
Washburn	Others	992	2.2%	5.8%	14.7%	0.265

If you're wondering, no, I'm not trying to make a point, because I don't know what point I should make.

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Yikes.

by abender20 on Oct 15, 2009 10:23 AM PDT reply actions

The BABIP difference is interesting to see in there because

I can possibly see a catcher affecting the other categories but I’m not sure why that variance is happening in BABIP also.

by Sec 108 on Oct 15, 2009 10:38 AM PDT reply actions

Preference for calling different pitches?

Higher BABIP on ground balls than fly balls, so a catcher who calls more high fastballs might have a lower BABIP. There will be a different average BABIP for different types of pitches.

Right?

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Oct 15, 2009 10:46 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Also, Joh caught Wash and Felix more often in 08 and earlier

There’s a definite difference in the defense.

angels fan in seattle

by Eyebrows on Oct 15, 2009 10:49 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

This makes sense to me here. Good call.

by Sec 108 on Oct 15, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, this is why I don't think that much of the BABIP column

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 15, 2009 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions

Both Felix and Washburn exhibited drops in their HR rate too.

One could attribute it to different catchers, or not. I can see why having an opinion on this is difficult.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Oct 15, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions

More on catching. More on. Mor-on... now we're getting somewhere!

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 15, 2009 10:43 AM PDT reply actions

These sets of numbers seem identical to me

The difference in HR% is there, but you’re also talking about a handful of events over hundreds of plate appearances so I wouldn’t fret over 1%. A few starts in Texas and Chicago could account for that, basically. The differences in K/BB rates for Washburn I believe should be more to do with his numbers this year compared to previous seasons, and I suspect this may be partially true for Felix as well, as Eyebrows pointed out.
.
The BABIP stuff is… what is that? Last year’s defense compared to this year’s defense? Strange

De Gutibus non disputandum est

by Bearskin Rugburn on Oct 15, 2009 10:58 AM PDT reply actions

The HR rate isn't a handful of events - one is ~ double the other. 53hrs v. 27hrs.

It’s weird, and it would probably even out over time, but it really sticks out. It’s odd.

by marc w on Oct 15, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions

Felix's HR%'s are more then 3 SD's away from each other

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 15, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah. That's what jumped out at me when I looked at this

earlier in the year. I just don’t get it.
Crappy proto-theory: For whatever reason, Johjima doesn’t get as many strikes called as he should (see that Dan Turkenkopf study on framing). More ‘bad’ counts leads to more FBs over the plate?
It’d be interesting to look at HRs by count for Felix, but that’d take a lot of work.

by marc w on Oct 15, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Does pitch mix differ?

Maybe someone’s already looked at this, but it would be interesting to see if Joh’s calling for a different mix of pitches than other catchers. Could break this down by count, also.

by cyberwulf on Oct 15, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions

That's a decent theory, but pitchers influence pitch mix too.

Tough to isolate a catcher’s role in that.

by marc w on Oct 15, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions

I'm talking about comparing (say) Felix's pitch mix w/ Joh to his w/ other catchers

by cyberwulf on Oct 15, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions

I know, but it's still tough

Think of the Angels game where Felix shook Joh off all the time. Is a deviation from some average/standard mix something Felix did, or something Joh did?

by marc w on Oct 15, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions

This assumes that at-bats are independent

1958 PAs doesn’t give the same amount information as 1958 coin flips. Dependence between at-bats will make these differences look less statistically significant. Also, in a table like the one given above, you’d probably expect at least one or two comparisons to yield a significant result just by chance.

by cyberwulf on Oct 15, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions

What is your basis of assuming dependence between PAs?

by Matthew on Oct 15, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Off the top of my head:

1) Same batters every time through lineup/over the course of a series
2) Pitcher fatigue over the course of a game
3) Situational issues (pitching style will often differ when bases loaded/no outs vs. bases empty/two outs)

I’m not saying I know how big these effects are, but I don’t think they can be dismissed out of hand.

by cyberwulf on Oct 15, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions

This makes me curious about the overall BABIP this year versus last year

by Smegmalicious on Oct 15, 2009 12:29 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

Ok....

You can get team DER here; DER=1-BABIP, so it’s essentially the same.
2009: .712
2008: .682

Big, big, big change

by marc w on Oct 15, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions

An amazingly joyous change.

by Sec 108 on Oct 15, 2009 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions

Joh is .113 R/G better at "Catching"*

Johjima’s WP+PB / Game = .356
Johjima’s SB/G = .646
Johjima’s CS/G = .353

Johnson’s WP+PB / Game = ..549
Johnson’s SB/G = .821
Johnson’s CS/G = ..299

ExRuns of WP or BP = -.285
ExRuns of SB = .-195
ExRuns of CS = +.456

Johjima’s “Catching” runs allowed per game (raw, not scaled to average) = -.067
Johnson’s “Catching” runs allowed per game (raw, not scaled to average) = -.170

This of course doesn’t control for pitchers, opponents, etc.

But when looking at the difference in game calling that seems to favor Johnson to some degree, it’s interesting to try to measure their defensive contributions. I think if we could add this, a value for the game calling (using a With Or Without You method), fielding, and projected wRAA, we might get close to a true catcher value.

by CMC_Stags on Oct 15, 2009 2:18 PM PDT reply actions

Could anything be made of LD%-against?

Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.

by qrsouther on Oct 15, 2009 2:21 PM PDT reply actions

Feel free to tell me if this is a stupid question.

Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.

by qrsouther on Oct 15, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions

Doubt it and I don't have that data

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 15, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Is LD%-against tracked anyway?

Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.

by qrsouther on Oct 15, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Nowhere I know of

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 15, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions

CATCHER ERA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!1~

But seriously, do we really have any good evidence that different catchers have any control over things like BABIP, K%, or HR%?

by ARock on Oct 15, 2009 2:35 PM PDT reply actions

I don't know

Does this count as good evidence?

I’m not leaning either way. I’m just providing data.

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 15, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions

What this says to me

… is that Washburn and Felix happened to be worse with Johjima behind the plate, not just unlucky. But there’s no reason to believe that they were worse because of Johjima.

Not sure that it justifies Washburn throwing Joh under the bus but we can see what it is he’s blaming Joh for. Doesn’t make him any less of a dick though.

by jose luis on Oct 15, 2009 3:59 PM PDT reply actions

Another column: the catcher's salaries

Johjima: 7.6 million
“Others:” 1.2 million

(assuming Rob Johnson, 400k; Jamie Burke, 400k; Adam Moore, 400k)

by Spoomeister on Oct 15, 2009 4:02 PM PDT reply actions

Another column: race

Johjima: Asian
“Others”: Superior caucasian.

Really, salary has no relevance here.

by Matthew on Oct 15, 2009 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Just seems that the stats Jeff found drives the point home that you can get equivalent catching skill for cheaper

by Spoomeister on Oct 15, 2009 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Well we can't do a lot about Bavasi's mistake now, that money's on the books no matter what so what they're getting paid doesn't really matter

by OlSalty on Oct 15, 2009 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions

That would be one interpretation if one was an extremely bad analyst

by Graham MacAree on Oct 15, 2009 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions

Except:

If you’re wondering, no, I’m not trying to make a point, because I don’t know what point I should make.

And you’re ignoring things like controlling the running game, preventing passed balls/wild pitches, errors.

Oh, and hitting.

If you’re going to bring salary into this, that is making a value comparison. And if you are going to do that without bringing up those stats that actually help paint a picture of value then, well… what the hell are you doing?

by Matthew on Oct 15, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions