Fun With Numbers: More On Catching
by Jeff on Oct 15, 2009 9:57 AM PDT
in The More You Know
39 comments
Looking at the two guys for whom we have good sample sizes. For Washburn, only Mariner stats included. Obviously.
| Pitcher | Catcher | PA | HR% | uBB% | K% | BABIP |
| Felix | Johjima | 1958 | 2.7% | 7.4% | 20.8% | 0.327 |
| Others | 1828 | 1.5% | 7.1% | 22.1% | 0.282 | |
| Washburn | Johjima | 1862 | 3.0% | 7.4% | 12.8% | 0.292 |
| Others | 992 | 2.2% | 5.8% | 14.7% | 0.265 |
If you're wondering, no, I'm not trying to make a point, because I don't know what point I should make.
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The BABIP difference is interesting to see in there because
I can possibly see a catcher affecting the other categories but I’m not sure why that variance is happening in BABIP also.
by Sec 108 on Oct 15, 2009 10:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Preference for calling different pitches?
Higher BABIP on ground balls than fly balls, so a catcher who calls more high fastballs might have a lower BABIP. There will be a different average BABIP for different types of pitches.
Right?
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Oct 15, 2009 10:46 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Also, Joh caught Wash and Felix more often in 08 and earlier
There’s a definite difference in the defense.
angels fan in seattle
by Eyebrows on Oct 15, 2009 10:49 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Both Felix and Washburn exhibited drops in their HR rate too.
One could attribute it to different catchers, or not. I can see why having an opinion on this is difficult.
...and now I'm here
by Librocrat on Oct 15, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More on catching. More on. Mor-on... now we're getting somewhere!
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 15, 2009 10:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
These sets of numbers seem identical to me
The difference in HR% is there, but you’re also talking about a handful of events over hundreds of plate appearances so I wouldn’t fret over 1%. A few starts in Texas and Chicago could account for that, basically. The differences in K/BB rates for Washburn I believe should be more to do with his numbers this year compared to previous seasons, and I suspect this may be partially true for Felix as well, as Eyebrows pointed out.
.
The BABIP stuff is… what is that? Last year’s defense compared to this year’s defense? Strange
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Oct 15, 2009 10:58 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The HR rate isn't a handful of events - one is ~ double the other. 53hrs v. 27hrs.
It’s weird, and it would probably even out over time, but it really sticks out. It’s odd.
by marc w on Oct 15, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Felix's HR%'s are more then 3 SD's away from each other
by Jeff on Oct 15, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah. That's what jumped out at me when I looked at this
earlier in the year. I just don’t get it.
Crappy proto-theory: For whatever reason, Johjima doesn’t get as many strikes called as he should (see that Dan Turkenkopf study on framing). More ‘bad’ counts leads to more FBs over the plate?
It’d be interesting to look at HRs by count for Felix, but that’d take a lot of work.
by marc w on Oct 15, 2009 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does pitch mix differ?
Maybe someone’s already looked at this, but it would be interesting to see if Joh’s calling for a different mix of pitches than other catchers. Could break this down by count, also.
by cyberwulf on Oct 15, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a decent theory, but pitchers influence pitch mix too.
Tough to isolate a catcher’s role in that.
by marc w on Oct 15, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm talking about comparing (say) Felix's pitch mix w/ Joh to his w/ other catchers
by cyberwulf on Oct 15, 2009 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know, but it's still tough
Think of the Angels game where Felix shook Joh off all the time. Is a deviation from some average/standard mix something Felix did, or something Joh did?
by marc w on Oct 15, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This assumes that at-bats are independent
1958 PAs doesn’t give the same amount information as 1958 coin flips. Dependence between at-bats will make these differences look less statistically significant. Also, in a table like the one given above, you’d probably expect at least one or two comparisons to yield a significant result just by chance.
by cyberwulf on Oct 15, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What is your basis of assuming dependence between PAs?
by Matthew on Oct 15, 2009 1:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Off the top of my head:
1) Same batters every time through lineup/over the course of a series
2) Pitcher fatigue over the course of a game
3) Situational issues (pitching style will often differ when bases loaded/no outs vs. bases empty/two outs)
I’m not saying I know how big these effects are, but I don’t think they can be dismissed out of hand.
by cyberwulf on Oct 15, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This makes me curious about the overall BABIP this year versus last year
by Smegmalicious on Oct 15, 2009 12:29 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Joh is .113 R/G better at "Catching"*
Johjima’s WP+PB / Game = .356
Johjima’s SB/G = .646
Johjima’s CS/G = .353
Johnson’s WP+PB / Game = ..549
Johnson’s SB/G = .821
Johnson’s CS/G = ..299
ExRuns of WP or BP = -.285
ExRuns of SB = .-195
ExRuns of CS = +.456
Johjima’s “Catching” runs allowed per game (raw, not scaled to average) = -.067
Johnson’s “Catching” runs allowed per game (raw, not scaled to average) = -.170
This of course doesn’t control for pitchers, opponents, etc.
But when looking at the difference in game calling that seems to favor Johnson to some degree, it’s interesting to try to measure their defensive contributions. I think if we could add this, a value for the game calling (using a With Or Without You method), fielding, and projected wRAA, we might get close to a true catcher value.
by CMC_Stags on Oct 15, 2009 2:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Could anything be made of LD%-against?
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.
by qrsouther on Oct 15, 2009 2:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Feel free to tell me if this is a stupid question.
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.
by qrsouther on Oct 15, 2009 2:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is LD%-against tracked anyway?
Addicted To Quack [dot] com; Six-hundred and ninety-four yards of total offense.
by qrsouther on Oct 15, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
CATCHER ERA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11!!1~
But seriously, do we really have any good evidence that different catchers have any control over things like BABIP, K%, or HR%?
by ARock on Oct 15, 2009 2:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
Does this count as good evidence?
I’m not leaning either way. I’m just providing data.
by Jeff on Oct 15, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What this says to me
… is that Washburn and Felix happened to be worse with Johjima behind the plate, not just unlucky. But there’s no reason to believe that they were worse because of Johjima.
Not sure that it justifies Washburn throwing Joh under the bus but we can see what it is he’s blaming Joh for. Doesn’t make him any less of a dick though.
by jose luis on Oct 15, 2009 3:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Another column: the catcher's salaries
Johjima: 7.6 million
“Others:” 1.2 million
(assuming Rob Johnson, 400k; Jamie Burke, 400k; Adam Moore, 400k)
by Spoomeister on Oct 15, 2009 4:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Another column: race
Johjima: Asian
“Others”: Superior caucasian.
Really, salary has no relevance here.
by Matthew on Oct 15, 2009 5:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just seems that the stats Jeff found drives the point home that you can get equivalent catching skill for cheaper
by Spoomeister on Oct 15, 2009 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except:
If you’re wondering, no, I’m not trying to make a point, because I don’t know what point I should make.
And you’re ignoring things like controlling the running game, preventing passed balls/wild pitches, errors.
Oh, and hitting.
If you’re going to bring salary into this, that is making a value comparison. And if you are going to do that without bringing up those stats that actually help paint a picture of value then, well… what the hell are you doing?
by Matthew on Oct 15, 2009 10:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, Rob Johnson's grandmother was black
De Gutibus non disputandum est
by Bearskin Rugburn on Oct 15, 2009 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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