Holy Crap

by Jeff on Jan 5, 2009 11:54 AM PST in Regular News Comment 69 comments

I don't understand how they pulled this off.

Pat Burrell is leaving the World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies for the runner-up Tampa Bay Rays.

Burrell has agreed in principle to a two-year, $16 million contract with the Rays, sources told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney on Monday. The deal is pending a physical.

Going into the offseason, Burrell was one of those slugging corner outfield types I had pegged as likely to receive a retarded contract. Instead, the Rays signed him for less money and fewer years than the Phillies gave the older Raul Ibanez.

Burrell can't play defense, but he's been a +20-25 run hitter for four years in a row, and as a DH, he's due to be worth somewhere at or around two wins. Even with a skillset that doesn't age particularly well, he's a good bet to earn his deal, with the potential to do quite a bit more than that.

Real solid deal for Tampa Bay. And if this is what the market looks like, then suddenly I'm a little warmer to the idea of pursuing Adam Dunn. He's no Milton Bradley, but he'd be the best hitter in the lineup, and should he be willing to sign a reasonable contract, then that mitigates a lot of the presumed risk.

Fascinating.

Matthew's superior take:

The Rays have, or are about to, ink Pat Burrell to a two-year, $16 million deal. He's probably going to DH most of the time. That actually improves his value as with the positional dock that left field gets (-7.5), Burrell was costing the team about 20.5 runs by playing the field. Moving to DH negates the poor defense and only incurs a 17.5 run penalty. With his offensive projection, that makes Burrell between a 2 and 2.5-win player and worth $9-$11 million per year.

Raul Ibanez signed a three year, $31.5 million deal to continue playing left field. Ibanez projects to be worth around $5 million as an outfielder. The Phillies forfeited three draft picks by refusing to offer arbitration to Burrell and signing Ibanez instead.

The Mariners used to be the Phillies. They are now the Rays.

Graham's take:

Don't be silly I never write anything.

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Dammit

I guess I’m in for a deletion.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 5, 2009 11:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

And no draft pick compensation.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 5, 2009 12:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I was just floating around DRaysBay

Only $16 Million for 2 Years. There are quite a few surprisingly low risk contracts floating around. And the Phillies looking more and more like they hosed themselves signing a slightly downgraded older version of Pat Burrell.

by ThundaPC on Jan 5, 2009 12:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yep, this is pretty amazing

One thing I wonder about is whether moving from the NL to the AL east will be thoroughly mitigated by becoming a full time hitter. Although this is an amazing deal not so much because of the great value as because everyone was expecting so much more.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 5, 2009 12:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Positional players that become full time DHs see a drop off of about 5 runs in hitting value.

by Matthew on Jan 5, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't know that

and find it generally surprising. Is there a THT article you might have a link to? I’d expect the opposite from an unathletic player over thirty.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 5, 2009 12:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Tango's work.

Basically, being a full time DH is difficult because you sit on the bench for long stretches at a time. It’s the same principle behind why pinch hitting is so tough.

by Matthew on Jan 5, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah so

then his expected production should be more toward 2 WAR rather than the 2.5 I initially came up with. Still a good deal, though a tad less so.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 5, 2009 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Edgar needs to show him how to pass the time in between at-bats.

“Yes, we have a coupon…”

by Crystal for DH on Jan 5, 2009 1:51 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

That was a great year of commercials.

by CKel on Jan 5, 2009 2:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm.

It was a good DECADE of commercials…

And who could forget “Skipper needs a righty!” (I have that hat)

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jan 5, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Does that mean a 1B with average defense and a DH have the same value since its harder to hit as a DH

or is the 5 runs already accounted for in the replacement value of the DH?

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 5, 2009 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

An average 1B with average defense is 5 runs more valuable than an average DH

by Jeff on Jan 5, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok so the 5 runs are taken into account with the replacement value.

If it was as easy to hit at DH as 1B then the replacement value for a DH would actually be -22.5 runs?

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 5, 2009 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

by Matthew on Jan 5, 2009 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, that makes logical sense. Just needed a reality check.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 5, 2009 2:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh god

God god, imagine what it’d feel like to have a league average DH.

by batura on Jan 5, 2009 3:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well this is new -

front page promises 18 comments, but clicking the story only reveals four. Must be some kind of cache issue.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 5, 2009 12:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yes... cache issue...

by Matthew on Jan 5, 2009 12:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

A ginormous gay cache issue

by Robert on Jan 5, 2009 12:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Damn those hidden subthreads.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 5, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Que?

are deleted comments counted toward the total?

Amazing the kinds of things I will occupy myself with to procrastinate my organ harvesting duties.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 5, 2009 12:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There are two things mods can do to comments

Deletion makes them go away entirely. Hiding removes them from y’all’s view but not ours. Hidden comments sometimes (but not all the time) count towards the total.

by Graham on Jan 5, 2009 1:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I've always been curious

but what, operationally, is the difference? Why would a mod choose to hide something as opposed to just deleting it entirely?

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Jan 5, 2009 1:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Lesser mod letting someone higher make up their mind to del or not, usually.

Also could be so the mods could have a chat with the person that may still be there. Or with themselves.

(Going by my mod experience on other boards, not here)

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Jan 5, 2009 1:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hiding comments allows us to have fun hidden subthreads

by Jeff on Jan 5, 2009 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Since neither happen in real time (get on that SBN)

hiding is preferred because hidden comments can still be replied to. People that try to reply to a deleted comment (it will still show up for them until they refresh), have it become an orphaned comment at the bottom of the thread. Then they comment about how it was meant as a reply above and we end up with 5 or so comments about the failed reply.

by Matthew on Jan 5, 2009 2:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Gotta admit, when I heard about this, my first thought:

Adam Dunn. We’ve had the conversation a million times, but now that there’s a possibility for a two-year deal around $20 million, I think I’m cool with that.

by Teej on Jan 5, 2009 2:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

My pants would be beshatted.

I’d LOVE Dunn on a 3/30 deal, and a 2/20 deal would be fine by me, too.

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Jan 5, 2009 3:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Marcel has him down for a .372 wOBA

He’ll have to do better than that to justify killing our lineup flexibility.

by JI on Jan 5, 2009 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Talent >>> lineup flexibility

I don’t know if Dunn is the right player for this team and probably isn’t but I don’t think that’s a good enough excuse.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 5, 2009 10:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What do you do if Clement can't catch?

It’s not worth signing a league average player for 2-3 years and blocking him.

by JI on Jan 6, 2009 9:50 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He's on the border.

It’s close enough to open up some much needed flexibility.

by Matthew on Jan 6, 2009 10:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Pat Burrell prices or better and I'll listen

by JI on Jan 6, 2009 10:45 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to assume that next year he will see about 1/2 the games at catcher

and the year after that he will see about 3/4 the games at catcher. If he can’t handle the load of playing catcher then I don’t care that much if he is blocked because his value will be greatly reduced.

No one really knows how good of a hitter he will really become but projecting him as a league average DH for the next few years is probably a little optimistic for almost any prospect. He has some value at DH because he will be making next to no money but you also have to take into account his injury record and inherent risk that for some reason he may not develop into the hitter we hope for.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 6, 2009 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No wonder we were interested in him

by JI on Jan 5, 2009 3:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

*Also

damn you and your park adjusted wOBA

by JI on Jan 5, 2009 3:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I know Griffey wouldn't be a good addition to the Mariners but...

The Rays’ signing of Burrell basically takes the Rays out of the “race” for Griffey. Leaving one lone A.L team in the “pursuit” for Kenny, the Mariners.

"I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul. I plan to face him with the zeal of a challenger."
-Ichiro on Dice-K

by seatownsports on Jan 5, 2009 10:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Sucks to be Ken.

by BrianL on Jan 5, 2009 10:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The Rays were never in the race.

Griffey wanted to play for Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay didn’t want Griffey.

by R.J. Anderson on Jan 6, 2009 6:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jan 6, 2009 1:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

by JI on Jan 6, 2009 9:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

One other thing Tampa has going for them is that it's also a pretty nice part of the country to live in

by Gomez on Jan 5, 2009 11:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

So's Seattle

and I’d bet, if it came to trying to sign Dunn to a Burrell contract, that the FO could do a pretty good job of pitching him on a quick return to contention.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jan 6, 2009 6:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Among the things I was getting at is that Tampa is warm and more accessible to direct flights

by Gomez on Jan 6, 2009 9:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Among the things I was getting at is that Seattle is beautiful and more accessible to cosmopolitan culture

Your point?

by The Ancient Mariner on Jan 7, 2009 8:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

To most people around this country Seattle is a nowhere destination.

Too remote and a reputation for being a depressing place to live.

It has always been an issue with every team in this area in regards to recruiting talented free agents.

by Sec 108 on Jan 7, 2009 9:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There's a perception problem, sure

Fortunately for us, though, it isn’t a reality

problem (though there are certainly downsides, including the distance to most of this country’s population centers). It’s not as if we’re Detroit.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jan 7, 2009 10:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No, we are not Detroit but we are far away from almost everyone's hometown.

Some athletes come here, fall in love and then stay. However few players want to move up here when they have other options.

by Sec 108 on Jan 7, 2009 11:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Watch a californian try to survive their first washington winter

Tell me they aren’t seriously depressed by about February when they don’t remember the last time they saw the sun and its been drizzling for about 20 days straight. Washington/Seattle is great once you get use to it but those first couple years can be rough on a lot of people who are use to “sunnier” weather.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 7, 2009 7:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There are a ton of players that don't live in the city they play in during the off-season, and our summer can't be touched.

by acblue on Jan 7, 2009 8:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Truth. Plus

watch a Californian (or someone from Texas or Florida) try to survive their first Midwest or Northeast winter, and it’s going to be a whole heck of a lot worse . . .

(By contrast, ask someone from those parts of the country about their first Washington winter, and most years they’re going to say, “What winter?”)

by The Ancient Mariner on Jan 8, 2009 4:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs