Ibanez and the Shift

by WholeCamels on Jan 30, 2009 9:49 AM PST Comment 43 comments

Over at The Good Phight we have a story about a possible correlation between left-handed batting and clutch performance. I was wondering if opposing defenses ever employed an infield shift defense against Raul Ibanez. Is it employed in limited circumstances? Ryan Howard always gets shifted, and Chase Utley often gets it as well.

Thanks for the advance scouting.

And feel free to post some Ibanez fielding mishap .gifs in this thread (Burrell is a butcher, but his failures are rarely as hilarious as Raul's...). Really glad the Phillies "upgraded" out there...

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I don't recall ever seeing an infield shift against Ibanez

by Jeff on Jan 30, 2009 9:53 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Let's talk about the existence of clutch hitting

GO GO GO GO

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Jan 30, 2009 10:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Jeter is the clutchiest clutch that ever clutched.

by Jed MC on Jan 30, 2009 10:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget about Big Papi.

by Fin on Jan 30, 2009 10:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't call him clutch, but...

….I do wonder sometimes how—out of all the Yankees—Jeter wound up with the clutch moniker.

One thing that I discovered recently is that with RISP and 2 outs, hitters in general see their batting average lowered by ~15 points (compared to bases empty), whereas with RISP and <2 outs, their batting average increases by ~35 points (compared to bases empty.) I also believe that strikeout rate increases in the former situation, while it decreases in the latter.

Now, if you look at how Jeter and A-Rod have done over their entire careers—which are pretty extensive—Jeter’s average with RISP and 2 outs increases by 3 points and A-Rod’s decreases by 28 points. (Relative to their individual performance with the bases empty.) There could be some degree of luck there, but the sample sizes are pretty substantial (about 1000 PA with RISP/2 for Jeter and A-Rod.)

My interpretation is that in situations where the pitcher tailors his strategy to limit base hits, Jeter has historically been better able to adapt to this and keep getting his hits anyway, whereas A-Rod has seen his ability to get base hits suffer. If you just look at their performance w/r/t average with RISP/2, then I would obviously take either one in any situation, I just wonder if this is somehow one of the reasons the two players are perceived the way that they are.

by ubelmann on Jan 30, 2009 10:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

One theory I've been considering

is that with less then two outs, the middle infielders play closer to second base to hold the runner on, giving the batter bigger holes to hit into. With two outs, the steal of third doesn’t matter so much, so they play closer to their normal positions.

This might also help to explain why lefties hit better “in the clutch” than righties. The big hole on the right side would be a bigger advantage than on the left side because third basemen are better than first basemen.

The
Richie,
the

by Rollo Tomasi on Jan 30, 2009 10:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Those seem like they could definitely be a contributing factors

I’m pretty convinced that pitchers alter their approach as well, and that that tangibly changes the results that hitters get at the plate.

by ubelmann on Jan 30, 2009 11:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There's definitely something going on

RISP, < 2 outs: 16% K, .311 BABIP
RISP, 2 outs: 19% K, .285 BABIP

by Jeff on Jan 30, 2009 11:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's kind of amusing to me...

…which splits are actively tracked and which splits aren’t tracked. For instance, everyone reports RISP/2 splits, but good luck finding RISP, <2 outs splits unless you’re going to calculate them yourself from the RISP splits and the RISP/2 splits. And I think it would surprise a lot of people that the AL as a whole hit .297 with runners in scoring position and fewer than 2 outs last year.

by ubelmann on Jan 30, 2009 11:38 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That infield shifting makes a world of difference

by Jeff on Jan 30, 2009 11:59 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Another possible factor

A pitcher is probably most likely to be pulled in exactly that situation for a pitcher with either better strikeout capability, lefty/righty splits, or groundball/flyball tendencies.

by Fett42 on Jan 30, 2009 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

True

It seems like that would happen a lot in RISP situations in general towards the end of the game. There are some times, too, when managers are tempted to not make a move when there are two outs because the pitcher is almost out of the jam.

If you could get league-wide splits on just starting pitchers with RISP, <2 and RISP/2, it would give us an idea of how large this effect was.

by ubelmann on Jan 30, 2009 12:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The BABIP difference is crazy

by Jeff on Jan 30, 2009 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This is true

by Fett42 on Jan 31, 2009 8:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Another factor

Averages may be higher with RISP<2 outs, than bases empty because pitchers who have allowed RISP are often not performing very well, which is why they re getting hit. If the bases are empty, its often a result of the starter having command of the game and pitching much better.

For example, Carlos Silva 2008 allowed more base runners than say, Felix. Because of this, More RISP AB’s were against Silva than Against Felix, and more bases emtpy against Felix than Silva. So the differences in their BAA and the amount of AB’s that go into each sample may account for SOME of the discrepancies in the league BA with RISP.

My guess is that this theory would be impossibly hard to test, but it does seem logical it would have some impact.

by mariners124m on Jan 31, 2009 11:25 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not impossibly hard to test

You could start by putting pitchers into three categories based on whether they have a low BA against, average BA against, or high BA against with no one on base. Then for each of those three groups, look to see what their BA against is for RISP, <2 outs and RISP/2. It might be good to go with multiple years of data on this.

I agree that this probably has something to do with it, but wouldn’t come close to explaining the entire difference.

by ubelmann on Jan 31, 2009 12:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It actually might explain quite a bit of it

A replacement level pitcher will be pitching with RISP quite a bit more than a staff ace. So any RISP sample would slightly weighted towards the replacement level pitcher as opposed to a dominant pitcher. Considering there is a pretty big difference between a staff ace and a 5th starter, it might account for a large amount of the correlation.

Of course, if you begin to take into consideration that often the best pitchers are coming in with RISP as bullpen set up men, that goes completly against the point I bring up.

I’d bet that if you ONLY looked at starting pitchers, you would see a higher BA w/ RISP then if you included every situation

by mariners124m on Jan 31, 2009 1:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The most striking difference here

is between RISP, <2 and RISP/2. While I agree that you’ll have a higher percentage of weak pitchers in the RISP, <2 situation, I don’t think it’s going to be a huge difference, because those guys are also going to have a lot of RISP/2 situations.

by ubelmann on Jan 31, 2009 6:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

"third basemen are better than first basemen."

I find your lack of faith disturbing.

by Vatinius on Jan 30, 2009 1:42 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs

At first glance I thought that was Tito Ortiz.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 30, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Look, I just wanted to know if Ibanez has that awesome Jeter-esque triple fist-pumping inspirational quality that so many outfielders seem to lack. If you can’t prove it empirically, just say “yes” until it’s true!!!!

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jan 30, 2009 11:24 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Give me a softball bat, open your car door and I'll clobber your clutch

BOOM, clutch hitting

by Gomez on Jan 30, 2009 10:18 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs

Ibanez sometimes gets a mild shift

It’s not very pronounced though

by Graham on Jan 30, 2009 10:48 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

He shifted from the Mariners' LF to the Phillies' LF.

Clutch move by Philly.

by Wilder. on Jan 30, 2009 11:05 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

The OF seemed to move around than the IF did.

I don’t recall seeing much of an infield shift from Raul at all. Which makes sense, really. When he pulls the ball on the ground he really doesn’t hit it very hard, so the 2B has plenty of time to get his grounder.

He was more likely to hit low liners the other way than to pull them (this is purely anecdotal), so a shift would generally be a bad idea.

I don’t think you’ll see teams shift for Ibanez anything like the way they do for Howard.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 30, 2009 11:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for your input everyone

Now make with the .gifs.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jan 30, 2009 11:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

They're on the sidebar of the main page

View them all as much as you like.

Rewatch them so much, they make an odd kind of sense.

by marc w on Jan 30, 2009 11:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And so the gifs don't crash the thread.

by Wilder. on Jan 30, 2009 11:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They are also here:

On one page.
I have no doubt new ones will be generated very soon. Can’t wait for the season to start!

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game."
-Rickey

by Big Jared on Jan 30, 2009 11:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Designated .gif maker

We have a guy all ready to go on that one.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jan 30, 2009 11:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent!

Thing is, he didn’t used to be this bad. He was never great but there has been a very visible decline the last couple years and he’s not getting any younger. On the other hand he will be covering significantly less ground in Philly. Maybe it won’t be too terrible.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game."
-Rickey

by Big Jared on Jan 30, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Pat the Not-Glove

The thing with Pat Burrell is that he is slow and consequentially doesn’t cover a lot of ground, but he takes good routes to flyballs, has good hands, and a very good throwing arm. Ibanez is not as slow, but probably significantly worse at all of the things Burrell does pretty well defensively. It basically turns into a wash, and that’s not even factoring in the age difference.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jan 30, 2009 12:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What else is LL for?

Small and manageable sig

by Taylor H on Jan 30, 2009 11:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Pay me my royalties

by JI on Jan 30, 2009 12:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I have a question about the shift.

Why do infields move everyone over so that the 3B is playing SS, and the SS is playing 2B, and the 2B is playing RF?

Why not just move the 3B to RF and leave everyone else where they are? That way the SS and 2B are still playing their normal positions relative to the bags, so it should be easier for them. And you want a strong arm in the short RRF position because the ball might take a lot of time to get there.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Jan 30, 2009 11:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

spin

Probably something to do with the way the ball moves off the bat, with the SS position more similar than short RF to a third baseman. And I guess SS tend to be better fielders and can handle the unfamiliarity of the second baseman’s side of the bag better. Obviously speculating here.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Jan 30, 2009 11:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs