Why Ken Griffey Jr. could be good for the Mariners next year

Using as an example, a guy who just signed a 3/$30 deal with a NL club kind of undermines your point a little bit.

…NO ONE knew Bedard was seriously injured.

They’d tested him and prodded him. He was sore, hurting, and couldn’t recover well enough to pitch. Nobody could figure out what was wrong. He hadn’t been diagnosed, formally, with anything at that time. At the time Churchill pointed that out, the news about his surgery hadn’t broken yet. Only AFTER they did the arthroscopic surgery (a few days after Churchill made that comment) did they discover that he indeed had a relatively minor injury (the cyst).

And – again – READ. “He’s protecting himself on the advice of his agent.” He was being extremely cautious – prudent, if you will – because he didn’t want to push himself and really risk serious injury. He was hurting enough to not be able to pitch, but they couldn’t diagnose him with a major injury until only AFTER he had the arthroscopic surgery.

But even still – he’s not perfect. No one is. He’s been wrong before, he’ll be wrong again. He’s able to get a lot more information than you or I can. While I always fact check with a lot of other people I know who have “sources” and I take every bit of his reported news with skepticism, he’s been right enough for me to trust his sources…

There’s a legitimate question as to WHY these people give him any sort of information, knowing that he puts things on his web site. There’s a lot more that he shares that he doesn’t put on his web site. A lot.

I’m done caring about this, though…

Maybe you didn’t see this from the Q&A with Churchill at Mariner Central, so I’ll post it here:

Over the past few years you have published as “about to happen” rumors based on your sources within the Mariners organization. There have been some rather visible instances where the Mariners went another direction than what your sources indicated. As a result, for some your credibility as a source of inside information on the Mariners has taken a significant hit. Of course, all you can do is develop your sources and rely on the information they give you, vetting it to the best of your ability. But because of these things, many may find it interesting if you would describe how these kinds of things work, both the good and the bad. Of course we do not expect you to compromise your sources.

JAC: With very few exceptions (Adam Jones’ call-up, Erik Bedard trade), if you read it carefully enough, I’m generally saying that it’s possible, or is a strong possibility, or simply being talked about or negotiated.

With the Adam Jones call-up in 2007, I reported on July 10 that he was likely to be called up the Thursday or Friday following the MLB All-Star break, which would have been the 12th or 13th. Instead, he was called up August 1st, played on August 3rd.

My source was a member of the M’s front office staff, and what happened in that instance is that they simply changed their minds to protect service time concerns. Up until that point they had decided to forego service time concerns and call him up and ready him for 2008.

Typically, however, I’m not broadly saying ‘this is going to happen soon,’ it’s just me sharing what I am hearing and letting the reader in on how probable my sources – usually agents, scout types or players – believe the deal is.

I specifically remember the Brian Roberts rumors last winter. The Cubs’ own Assistant GM thought the deal was going to happen – and quickly – so when a Cubs fan from a message board emailed me to ask what I knew, that’s pretty much what I told him – that a front office exec from an involved club suggests it could happen, and soon.

With the Bedard deal, though, I just had a much better source who was directly involved in the negotiations, which is why I had all five M’s pieces a month and a half before anyone else on the planet.

The voice mail I used to report the pitching coach hire of Jim Slaton- which was way off, obviously – was both my error and the source’s.

He mistyped, got his sentence backwards, rushed out the door, and was in Venezuela the very next day and was not available to me to re-verify and clarify. I should have waited a few days. Live and learn.

Some of the issues come with the wording. I’m trying to be more careful not to mislead, as it’s certainly not my intent – it does me no good to do that – which is why words such as “likely,” and “potentially” and “possibly” are used so often.

And remember, the rate of transactions that occur to transactions that are seriously discussed is probably under three percent. But if you read something that you believe may be misleading you, drop me a line, I’ll do my best to clarify, and if necessary, I will change the wording of a report.

As for my credibility is concerned, well, I’m not concerned – it’s not why I do this, at all. And my sources have been right much more than they have been wrong. Over the past 16 months or so, they have been extremely on the money.

I have indeed, however, stopped trusting certain sources. I have even tried to confirm one’s info with someone else’s, had the second person confirm it and it still turned out to be off, at least somewhat. So, as an ongoing process that will never end, I learn who to trust and who not to trust.

There’s two sources in particular that have never, ever been wrong, and I go to them just about every single day to get advice, thoughts, news, all kinds of info. What’s great is, one is an NL easte coast guy and one is an AL west zone guy, so I pretty much have it covered.

A few other sources are reliable as well, but aren’t as available to me as I wish they were. When I get a piece of information and it’s not from one of my few money sources, I start calling and emailing others to see if I can piece together that information via one or more other contacts. If I can do so, I will use it. If I cannot, I wait until I can.

There have been times when a local beat writer of one of the clubs involved helps me confirm the information I have received, but in that case I have to be careful not to lead them into saying what I hope they have heard.