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Carlos Zambrano is underrated

Well, underrated in sabremetric circles, anyway. I know what you're all going to say too. He had a 4.17 tRA last year - above average, sure, but worth nothing close to the $18+ million dollars the Cubs spent on him. In fact, his pitching WAR (tRA based, not FIP), was 3.3, which would value him at around around $15 million.

An overpay, then?

Star-divide

Only if all you do is look at pitching statistics. Zambrano's true value was actually more than $20M. How?

Hitting.

Pitchers in general are pretty bad hitters. Over the last three years their totals have looked like this:

PA H 2B 3B HR BB IBB K HBP RBOE
17805 2105 355 18 77 605 0 5878 41 173

That's (not) good for a wOBA of about 0.154*, well lower than league average. In fact, over 700 plate appearances, the average pitcher would be worth -11.5 wins with the bat compared to the league.

In this case we'll take average as replacement level - pitchers aren't selected for their bats, so there isn't a very compelling case to further widen the gap. In addition, pitchers won't come anywhere near 700 PA, so that enormous replacement win value will drop considerably. It's still significant, though.

Over 85 plate appearances in 2008, Carlos Zambrano was worth 2.5 runs over the average hitter. 85/700*11.5 gives him a 1.34 positional adjustment for his batting, which marks his overall production as a hitter at about +1.6 wins.

1.6+3.3 = 4.9
4.9*$4.5M = $22.0M

Zambrano's bat was about one third of his overall value. Neglecting pitcher hitting is a great way to miss out on the big picture.

PS: I imagine Matthew will come along shortly with pitcher hitting WAR for everyone not named Zambrano.

*I did a cursory check to make sure this isn't being skewed by AL pitchers in interleague; using NL pitchers only gives a similar result.

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This is an interesting post.

I noticed Zambrano’s hitting line when they posted the silver slugger awards a while back and I wondered how big of an impact it made.

On the topic of pitchers hitting though, how much was Sabathia’s bat worth in his (very) limited time with Milwaukee? I just remember seeing him hit a home run on a highlight reel and thinking that he had a pretty good swing for a pitcher.

by Vatinius on Jan 26, 2009 11:28 PM PST reply actions  

We all know that Felix is the best hitting pitcher around.

A 5.000 OPS is pretty much unbeatable.

There are no good individual basketball statistics.
54!

by joof on Jan 27, 2009 12:10 AM PST reply actions  

Felix reminds me of "The Kid Who Only Hit Homers."

Did anyone else read that book as a pre-teen? It was written by Matt Christophor, the author known for his sports books for pre-teens. As I recall, the kid hit homers in every at bat for an entire little league season. Somehow, the advance scouts never caught wind of this and teams never decided to intentionally walk him. Anyway, the story comes to a compelling climax when there is an at-bat in the final game of the season where it appears that he might not hit a homer. Then — as one might surmise by reading the title — he hits a homer anyway. I think he also had some issues with his father as a side plot, but that’s not the part I remember.

by FlaskInSafeco on Jan 27, 2009 7:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, I read a few Matt Christopher books,

and that might have been the side plot to all of them.

by FlaskInSafeco on Jan 27, 2009 7:58 AM PST up reply actions  

I wanted him to write one about me called "The Runt Who Always Walked."

". . . Justin was the srawniest, weakest child on his Little League team. He was also afraid of the ball. Fortunately for Justin, in addition to being scrawny and weak, he was also short and 3rd grade pitchers don’t have great accuracy. . . . " The sabermetrics people would have loved me. I think Matt Christopher was considering it, but I got along too well with my father.

by FlaskInSafeco on Jan 27, 2009 8:02 AM PST up reply actions  

I think I read all of these

You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.

by bluemax on Jan 27, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Advance scouts?

I don’t remember the front office being real big on staffing a scouting department when I was in little league. Of course, the front office was a bagel shop, so they had other concerns.

by Vatinius on Jan 27, 2009 12:49 PM PST up reply actions  

micah owings

he was a pretty decent pitcher, anyone remember the game last year, where he came in to pinch hit, and hit a game-tying solo shot on the first pitch he faced? not too many pitcher come in to pinch hit, at least lately, don’t know about back in the day

by sergey606 on Jan 27, 2009 1:59 AM PST reply actions  

I got to watch Owings play for three years at Tulane.

He hit the longest shot I’ve ever seen in person. It sailed over an eight story building that was a good 375-400 feet from home plate. Too bad it was foul.

by FlaskInSafeco on Jan 27, 2009 7:38 AM PST up reply actions  

Mike Hampton

He used to get used as a pinch hitter every once in a while. Not as a Mariner that I can think of, but after he left.

by Vatinius on Jan 27, 2009 12:50 PM PST up reply actions  

So wait..

Now that we’re establishing replacement level for pitchers, that means that all those accusations we made about Vidro and other bad DHs being barely better then pitchers hitting for themselves have instead become rationale for them being awesome.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 27, 2009 7:16 AM PST reply actions  

One of my friends is a Cubs fan and has always argued that Zambrano could be more effective

as a pitcher if he was less psychotic about batting and didn’t get flustered over his at bats. I wonder (and I realize that this is unquantifiable) how much better he’d pitch if he didn’t lose his cool over striking out, etc? Would he get even crazier on the mound pitching for an AL team? Would he pitch better?

I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!

by abender20 on Jan 27, 2009 9:23 AM PST reply actions  

Is it just me

or does anyone else have a problem with looking at past performance with tRA? I agree completely that it works better as a predictor of future performance, and maybe looking back at an individual year is ok but at some point don’t you have to give credit to how the person performed rather then the LD% or BB% that they gave up?

Just using an old fall back, look at Tom Glavine over the past few years. Since 2002 his ERA+ has been 106 (would prefer to use RA+ but have no idea where to locate it) while his tRA+ has been 93. With a sample size over 1000 innings it is pretty obvious to me that Glavine is beating the system.

I don’t mind using tRA or FIP for predicting future WAR, in fact i prefer it, but I feel uneasy about using it to assign values to past performance. tRA is still based on expected runs allowed and defense and park factors don’t always bridge the gap between how some pitchers performed.

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jan 27, 2009 4:03 PM PST reply actions  

You hit the nail on the head with defense

ERA is defense dependent. tRA is defense independent. Tom Glavine has had some awesome infield defense behind him the last few seasons, between Yunel Escobar/Chipper Jones/Kelly Johnson or Jose Reyes/David Wright/whoever the hell NY ran out at second. The Mets OF was great too, IIRC, with Chavez/Beltran/Cameron/holy shit that’s a good outfield

by seattlebruin on Jan 27, 2009 4:12 PM PST up reply actions  

It seems like an awful big gap to me

unfortunately tRA only goes back to 2002 so you can’t look at players whole careers but I strongly suspect that there are guys that buck the system still even after adjusting for those factors. Another thing that could be done for as far back as play by play goes you could see what the defensive value defenders were when Glavine was on the mound. Obviously this would take a lot of work and skill that I do not have and we could see if the defense makes up this pretty wide gap. I just don’t think that expected runs are going to always give pitchers full credit

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jan 27, 2009 4:20 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't disagree with that in the slightest

and I’m sure Paul Byrd is happy tRA is not in the Baseball Tonight vocabulary

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jan 27, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions  

ERA, and ERA+ sucks.

Do not get trapped into using it as a baseline for anything.

by Matthew on Jan 27, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Indeed

ERA and ERA+ leave a lot to be desired, but runs allowed are what ultimately matter and by using expected runs only you might be cheapening some pitcher’s performances, and with a larger sample size the more apparent the unexplainable skill should become

Don't believe the lies Bill!!!! look at the sparkly ERA!!! Sparkly, Sparkly!!! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown on Jan 27, 2009 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

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