Have a Question on WAR?

by Matthew on Jan 26, 2009 11:14 AM PST in Seattle Mariners Stats

Well, Tango has an open thread on it over at The Book Blog. It's an important concept to understand as it's our, and many others, common way to boil down player value into a single number.

While there are criticisms of WAR, many of them stem from misunderstandings of the model behind the final number. So if you have any nagging doubts or are unsure of some aspect of it and want to know more, head over and ask the man himself.

If you don't feel like doing that, post your question here and somebody might be able to assist you.

Tweet Comment 24 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I've always wondered why +2 WAR is league average.

If 25 replacement level players can achieve 50 wins, then why would a team of league average players win 100 games? Of course they wouldn’t, so I had assumed it had something to do with playing time, but I’ve never been sure.

by Double06 on Jan 26, 2009 11:30 AM PST reply actions

It's +2 WAR over a full season's worth of plate appearances

The 25 guys wouldn’t play a full season each.

by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2009 11:33 AM PST up reply actions

To further expand:

You have 9 batters receiving a full-season share of plate appearances.

A full-season share of innings pitched (for WAR purposes) is set at 180 I believe. Average number of IP per team is about 1440. 1440 / 180 = ~8 pitchers receiving a full-season share of innings pitched.

9 + 8 = 17. (full season shares)
17 * 2 = 34. (# of wins above replacement)
Replacement level is actually about 47 wins.
34 + 47 = 81

by Matthew on Jan 26, 2009 11:44 AM PST up reply actions

OK, so why do you multiply by 2?

by Double06 on Jan 26, 2009 11:51 AM PST up reply actions

Average to replacement.

by Matthew on Jan 26, 2009 11:54 AM PST up reply actions

Oh, pff, duh.

Thanks for the detail.

by Double06 on Jan 26, 2009 11:56 AM PST up reply actions

You're thinking of it like 2 is a preset constant

You derive it by taking (81-47)/17.

by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2009 11:58 AM PST up reply actions

So I assumed right.

by Double06 on Jan 26, 2009 11:50 AM PST up reply actions

You have to leverage them properly

25 guys can’t all play 100% of the time.

by JI on Jan 26, 2009 11:34 AM PST up reply actions

But if they could, they'd win a lot more than 100 games.

by Vatinius on Jan 26, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions

"Have a Question on WAR?"

yes, what is it good for?

by msb on Jan 26, 2009 1:32 PM PST reply actions

Player evaluation, mainly

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 26, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions

Say it again, y'all.

Patriotism, Pepper, Professionalism

by esoteric on Jan 26, 2009 1:40 PM PST up reply actions

I think you mean

“Player ’valuation, say it again”"

by JI on Jan 26, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I don't have any question to ask because WAR seems quite a simple concept and since I am a LL/Fangraphs whore I am immersed every day in it.

I just wanted to say that I think it’s awesome that TT is so involved with the blogging community and proactive in increasing the average users understanding of these new tools, considering he is pretty much the pre-eminent sabermetrican right now. And it makes me big to think he consults for the M’s.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Jan 26, 2009 5:09 PM PST reply actions